Super Tuesday 2024 (but downballot)
Alabama, Arkansas, North Carolina, and Texas
It’s Super Tuesday! And we, as a downballot-focused newsletter, don’t really care. We do care about all the non-presidential stuff, though: while the downballot primary season moves on a different schedule from the presidential nominating contests, Alabama, Arkansas, North Carolina, Texas, and California hold all their primaries at once on the first Tuesday in March.
(To our email readers: we apologize for the length of this partial preview. You may need to head to the website version to read all of the Texas section—if a Travis County DA item is not the final item you can see, that means your email provider truncated the email. California, as per usual, is so large that it will take up its own preview, out later today.)
Alabama
AL-02 (Montgomery, Mobile, and the Black Belt)
James Averhart vs. Napoleon Bracy Jr. vs. Merika Coleman vs. Anthony Daniels vs. Shomari Figures vs. Juandalynn Givan vs. Jeremy Gray vs. Phyllis Harvey-Hall vs. Willie Lenard vs. Vimal Patel vs. Larry Darnell Simpson
Result: Figures 43.5%, Daniels 22.4%, Bracy 15.7%, Coleman 6.0%, Harvey-Hall 3.5%, Averhart 2.8%, Gray 2.7%, Givan 2.2%, Patel 0.5%, Simpson 0.4%, Lenard 0.3% | Figures and Daniels advance to runoff
Alabama Democrats fought like hell to get a new congressional seat, and, once they got it, a horde of candidates immediately crammed into the clerk’s office to get their names on the ballot, setting up an exciting primary…that never came to pass. Instead, we got a quiet, locally-focused, low-dollar (with one exception) election with no obvious frontrunner and little national attention.
More likely runoff contenders:
Shomari Figures is that one exception to the low-dollar trend. Figures is the scion of the most powerful Democratic family in Mobile. His parents have been the sole Democrats to represent Mobile in the state Senate since 1978 (his father Michael, from 1978-1996, and his mother, Vivian, since then). Shomari has thus far not sought any political office, but was instead an aide in the Obama white house. His campaign has been pretty boilerplate, but, behind the scenes, he’s clearly impressed one group: the crypto industry. Crypto SuperPAC Protect Progress is responsible for more than ⅔ of the spending in this primary ($1.7 million to the candidates’ combined $776,000).
Napoleon Bracy Jr. is a state representative who, like Figures, hails from the Mobile area. He has a marginally more progressive tone than other candidates in the race, floating Medicare for All in one early interview. In his record, however, is a major red flag—he voted in favor of the law that ended judge-issued marriage licenses as an effort to make gay marriage more difficult. Before the crypto spending barrage, Bracy was leading Figures 15% to 9% in the only poll of the race. Bracy has been endorsed by the Alabama Democratic Conference, the largest Black political caucus in the state.
Merika Coleman is a recently elected state senator, and prior longtime state house member, from Birmingham. Birmingham is not at all close to being in the district, a fact that doesn’t affect Coleman’s eligibility, but has been an anchor on her campaign. Plenty of candidates have been elected despite carpetbagging concerns, but, in a large field of candidates, Coleman has spent too much of her precious little time in front of voters explaining away her residency. Coleman’s tenure in the state legislature marks her as a safe, normal Democrat, which could be an asset when the alternatives include a crypto industry lackey and a man who was apparently still anti-gay as of 2019, but she never got to make that case.
Anthony Daniels is the Minority Leader of Alabama House. Much like Coleman’s campaign, Daniels’s has been sidelined by persistent residency questions, but if you thought running from Birmingham was bad, Daniels has that beat—he represents Huntsville, practically on the Tennessee border. There’s a reason he’s been leaning so heavily on growing up in the Black Belt: it makes his campaign sound much less opportunistic. Daniels is a moderate who previously supported Michael Bloomberg for president, and is leaning heavily into cutting taxes on both individuals and business should he win, making his support from organized labor confusing. In other states that alone could get a politician into the runoff in a crowded election, but unions are weaker in Alabama, as in the South writ large.
Juandylann Givan is a state representative from Montgomery struggling to break out in a field already stuffed full of candidates from outside the district. Our question for so many candidates running in this race: if you aren't going to raise a bunch of money and you can't get your local establishment to support you, then how are you going to distinguish yourself from the other candidates somehow? Givan has the answer to that: she's the fighter. It's a corny term from most politicians, but Givan is, if nothing else, a woman who relishes a fight. She's known for her open attacks on Republicans, provocative protest bills, and not backing down when confronted. Unfortunately, Givan isn’t a progressive fighter, breaking to the right in some bizarre ways, including against trans rights and against the ACA for some reason.
Jeremy Gray is the final member of the legislature in this race, now in his second term representing the Columbus metro area. As a former professional athlete in the now-shuttered Arena Football League, Gray has a different background from other candidates in this race, but Gray isn’t focusing as much on that in the primary. In fact, we know exactly what he wants to focus on, thanks to some very conspicuous instructions he put on his website for outside PACs that apparently never came to his aid: “He is a resident of Congressional District 2, he is 38 years old and on March 5 he will be voting for himself, unlike many other candidates”. So he’s youngish and lives in the district. Inspiring.
Less likely runoff contenders:
James Averhart is a state NAACP executive and nonprofit president in Mobile.
Phyllis Harvey-Hall is a retired schoolteacher from Montgomery. She is the only one running as a clear progressive and was the nominee for the old, Republican AL-02 in 2020 and 2022.
Willie Lenard is a 78 year old retired businessman who has done some minor self-funding.
Vimal Patel is a hotelier running gunning for moderate voters; he believes Congress needs more business owners.
Larry Darnell Simpson is a musician who is probably running an actual campaign if he collected enough signatures to be on the ballot, but there’s no sign of it online. And yet, somehow, he got 5% in the December SPLC poll. He’s either very locally popular, or voters are confusing him for someone else.
Arkansas
HD-35 (Memphis suburbs)
Sherry Holliman vs. Demetris Johnson Jr. vs. Jessie McGruder vs. Raymond Whiteside
Result: McGruder 46.6%, Whiteside 23.8%, Johnson 15.4%, Holliman 14.2% | McGruder and Whiteside advance to runoff
Terms limits have opened up this district, located directly west of Memphis. Biden only won the district by 9, but for a Black-majority district in the South, that’s enough to be out of reach for Republicans unless turnout completely collapses.
Jessie McGruder is a cop and the son of two local politicians. He’s also a testament to how closed off the rural south is from gay culture, because he very sincerely put “I take pleasure in [...] cruising” on his website. McGruder has the support of many local elected officials and businessmen, suggesting he’ll probably finish first today, though whether there’ll be a runoff is anyone’s guess. He’s clearly a moderate, who doesn’t even support legal marijuana and is open to banning trans healthcare, so it would be nice if someone else won instead. Earle (pop. 1,800) City Councilmember Demetris Johnson Jr. ran for this district in 2022, and got 25% in the primary, so if he can replicate that kind of effort, he could join McGruder in the runoff. At 24, he could also be one of the youngest state legislators in the country. Former Marion (pop. 14,000) City Councilmember Sherry Holliman is probably a stronger contender, but her entirely offline campaign makes that hard to judge. Finally, Raymond Whiteside is an educator and running a serious campaign, but he’s also a white candidate in a district where the primary electorate will be almost entirely Black.
HD-63 (Memphis suburbs)
Lincoln Barnett vs. Fred Leonard vs. Billy Thomen
Result: Barnett 48.4%, Leonard 42.3%, Thomen 9.3% | Barnett and Leonard advance to runoff
The frontrunner here is Lincoln Barnett, the mayor of Hughes (pop. 1,000) and the former chair of the St. Francis County Democratic Party (covering about half the district). Barnett actually took the unusual step of suspending the entire police department in 2019 as a result of the level of graft and mismanagement on display. He’s the frontrunner for this seat after running in 2022 and losing to the incumbent only 57%-43%. His opponents are insurance firm owner Fred Leonard, running on a platform of tax cuts and “promoting entrepreneurship”; and fire chief and school board member Billy Thomen, who should do best in Crittenden County, the other half of the district.
HD-65 (Pine Bluff)
Glenn Barnes vs. Kanisher Caldwell
Result: Barnes 65.0%, Caldwell 35.0%
Nurse Kanisher Cladwell is the candidate of organized labor, while Glenn Barnes, a pastor who doesn’t like paying his taxes, is endorsed by the health care lobbyists PAC, which would make this an easy choice even if Barnes wasn’t openly anti-choice and anti-trans. This might be the starkest ideological divide in the state, and if it isn’t, the next race is.
HD-76 (Little Rock)
Joy C. Springer (i) vs. Ryan Davis vs. Kia Wilson
Result: Springer 51.0%, Davis 42.4%, Wilson 6.6%
Joy Springer won a special election in 2020 for this seat, beating none other than Ryan Davis, who is running again. The difference between the two is half policy, half approach. Davis is a longtime activist who co-founded the Little Rock Freedom Fund, an activist hub in the city, and wants to be “proverbially more loud” than Springer, who is a business-friendly go-along-to-get-along Democrat. Springer has been dismissive of the idea that she should be pushing for progressive policies in the house, and is running on her bipartisan work and seniority instead. Former Republican staffer Kia Wilson is unlikely to make the runoff, if there is one.
HD-77 (Little Rock)
Fred Allen (i) vs. Grant Smith
Result: Allen 86.4%, Smith 13.6%
Fred Allen, the longest-serving member of the state house, was challenged by young good-government type Grant Smith in the 2022 primary and won 85%-15%. This year should go similarly.
HD-80 (Little Rock)
Denise Ennett (i) vs. R. Roosevelte Williams III
Result: Ennett 64.4%, Williams 35.6%
Denise Ennett and R. Roosevelte Williams III are about to face off for the third time in five years: Williams came in dead last in a 2019 special that Ennett eventually won in the runoff, and then challenger her again in 2020, only to lose by a wide 70%-30%. Ennett may be a boring incumbent, but she’s also avoided pissing anyone off, and Williams doesn’t appear to have made much of a case for himself beyond that.
North Carolina
SD-14 (Eastern Raleigh)
Dan Blue (i) vs. Terry Passione
Result: Blue 86.6%, Passione 14.4%
Dan Blue is a boring incumbent and Terry Passione has zero online or media presence. We’re really starting North Carolina off with a bang, huh?
SD-22 (Durham)
Mike Woodard (i) vs. Sophia Chitlik
Result: Chitlik 57.55%, Woodard 42.45%
Mike Woodard was a Durham City Councilor before the rise of the modern progressive faction in Durham politics. He left in 2012 to run for state senate, and since then has represented a series of districts that incorporate part of Durham County. He attempted to reenter Durham politics in 2023 with a mayoral campaign, but was absolutely flattened by Leo Williams, a city councilor neither the progressives nor moderates loved but both could tolerate. Woodard is now in the most Durham-heavy senate district he’s ever run in—almost all of it—and he’s of course left lingering negative impressions from his mayoral run. It’s the perfect time to run a progressive against him, and Durham progressives are on it. Enter former Obama White House and Labor Department staffer, Sophia Chitlik. Chitlik has been hitting Woodard on voting with Republicans to overturn Gov. Roy Cooper’s vetoes. Despite Woodard’s support from the insurance and telecom industries, Chitlik has actually been outspending him, though not when you count the $100,000 in outside spending from business PACs on his behalf.
SD-32 (Winston-Salem)
Paul Lowe (i) vs. Gardenia Henley
Result: Lowe 64.6%, Henley 35.4%
Paul Lowe has been a strong partisan during his four terms in the senate, and Gardenia Henley is a perennial candidate on her 8th campaign in 14 years. This election will be unexciting.
SD-44 (West Charlotte)
Robert Bruns vs. Kendrick Cunningham vs. Lucille Puckett vs. Caleb Theodros
Result: Theodros 42.9%, Puckett 31.2%, Cuningham 16.5%, Bruns 9.45%
This election is a weird one. Four candidates, all distinct from each other, but none of them are raising much money or getting much media attention, and in an important election occurring in a major metropolitan area. The frontrunner is Caleb Theodros, appointed by Mayor Vi Lyles to Chair of the Charlotte Equitable Development Commission, and Chair of the Black Political Caucus, a group which is functionally the Black establishment in Charlotte. Theodros has recently had to fend off residency questions, which raises the looming possibility of a potential win of his getting invalidated after the fact, and even if it doesn’t could scare some voters away, especially since it highlights that he basically moved to the district to run for office. The only real competition he has is hip-hop musician/housing activist Kendrick Cunningham, who is endorsed by Sunrise and some groups that support young and first time candidates.
HD-23 (Rural East Carolina)
Shelly Willingham (i) vs. Abbie Lane
Result: Willingham 78.9%, Lane 21.1%
We’re going to be writing about a handful of elections where progressives are finally challenging Democrats who keep voting like Republicans, and while this is nominally one of them, it’s not really part of the larger effort happening in the state right now. Shelly Willingham voted for HB 574, the law to prohibit trans girls from competing in his school girls sports, and was a reliable vote for efforts to put down George Floyd protestors. Former Green Abbie Lane, while he is running as a progressive looking to give voters a break from Willingham, is also a white guy in a majority Black district who’s raised basically no money.
HD-27 (Rural East Carolina)
Michael Wray (i) vs. Rodney D. Pierce
Result: Pierce 50.2%, Wray 49.8%
Michael Wray is the worst of the worst in terms of Democrats in the NC legislature. The only Democratic yea on the bathroom bill still remaining, Wray is constantly voting with Republicans. The media Democrat votes against the majority of Republicans on 34% of all bills. For Wray it’s 12%. On top of which, Wray is a white guy in a Black majority district. He really, really should have been vulnerable to a primary challenge for a while, but 2020 was the only year that Wray came close to being in trouble, taking 56% of the vote. Teacher and historian Rodney Pierce is running as a mildly progressive reliable Democratic vote and has support not only from progressives, but organized labor as well. UNITE HERE in particular has a low six figure paid canvassing operation going for him. Wray has held off challenger after challenger, but this could be the year he finally goes down, even if Republican outside groups are spending big to save him.
HD-33 (Southern Raleigh suburbs)
Debra Dunston vs. Monika Johnson-Hostler vs. Antoine G. Marshall
Result: Johnson-Hostler 60.1%, Marshall 25.7%, Dunston 14.2%
Monika Johnson-Hostler, Chair of the Wake County Public School Board, is a strong favorite for this open seat, between her sizable financial lead, support from organized labor, and endorsements from both major newspapers in the area. Putting up a good challenge is lawyer Antoine Marshall, who ran for a version of this seat in 2018 and 2020, taking 25% and 34% of the vote, respectively. Marshall is currently more vocally a progressive than Johnson-Hostler, calling for a ceasefire in Gaza and publicly-finance elections, though Johnson-Hostler, when she ran for Congress in 2018, was the preferred candidate by progressives, and supported Medicare For All.
HD-42 (Fayetteville suburbs)
Naveed Aziz vs. Courtney Banks-McLaughlin vs. Mike Colvin vs. Elmer Floyd
Result: Colvin 35.0%, Aziz 29.0%, Floyd 22.6%, Banks-McLaughlin 13.4%
Naveed Aziz, a medical doctor, ran twice against conservative state Sen. Ben Crump in 2018 and 2020, clearly positioning herself to his left, getting 44% of the vote both times. In 2022, she ran for state house again, also against a pretty moderate incumbent, and again lost with 44% of the vote. That incumbent is running again, and we can confidently say that as much as she clearly loves losing with 44% of the vote, she’s going to have to choose between losing and getting 44% of the vote. In a four-way contest like this, 44% is a win. Buoyed by the name recognition that comes with 6 years of campaigning, Aziz could be a surprise pickup for the Progressive Caucus, which has endorsed her. Her competition is Mike Colvin, who splits his time between local politics and running his family’s funeral home empire. Colvin is supported by outgoing incumbent Marvin Lucas and can be assumed to be a moderate for that reason. Also running is Elmer Floyd, a conservative former state Rep (and a vote for the bathroom bill) who represented a district on the other side of Fayetteville until losing the primary to a non-bigot in 2020. He’ll be eating into Colvin’s vote share, but he’s running on name recognition in a district he barely ever represented any of, so he won’t get far.
HD-60 (High Point)
Cecil Brockman (i) vs. James Adams
Result: Brockman 50.7%, Adams 49.3%
Cecil Brockman is another Republican-friendly Democrat that mainstream party groups like the Young Democrats and Progressive Caucus are fed up with, most importantly for his recent vote to override Gov. Roy Cooper’s veto and pass the GOP budget. Former High Point NAACP President James Adams is Brockman’s progressive challenger, and while everyone backing Rodney Pierce is also involved here, the investment isn’t quite the same, but of course the same can be said for the extant but less expensive GOP outside expenditure campaign to keep Brockman in office. Brockman hasn’t faced a primary challenge since his initial election in 2014, and no one knows what to expect here.
HD-72 (Northern Winston-Salem)
Amber Baker (i) vs. Marcus D. Pearson
Result: Baker 76.3%, Pearson 23.7%
Social studies teacher and single dad Marcus D. Pearson sounds cool—a well-intentioned middle aged man who has, by his telling of it, recently become focused on social justice thanks to his daughters and is now running as a progressive for state house. Sure, he’s not going to win—he’s raised no money and incumbent Amber Baker is herself a progressive that everyone seems to like—but we hope he runs for something else eventually.
HD-106 (Northern Charlotte)
Carla Cunningham (i) vs. Vermanno Bowman
Result: Cunningham 84.6%, Bowman 15.4%
Carla Cunningham is the final Democrat who votes with Republicans being targeted for primary defeat this year. She’s been less aggressive about taking those votes and defending them after she takes them, which is probably why she drew a less difficult challenger to face. National Guardsman Vermanno Bowman ran for state house in a neighboring district in 2022 and lost 84%-16%. This campaign has gotten more attention because of his change in target, but he’s still trailing badly in fundraising, and organized labor has stayed far away.
Texas
TX-07 (Houston, Sugar Land)
Lizzie Pannill Fletcher (i) vs. Pervez Agwan
Result: Fletcher 74.2%, Agwan 25.8%
Pervez Agwan initially had promise as a challenger to centrist Rep. Lizzie Fletcher. Fletcher didn’t face a primary in 2022, so Agwan is her first challenger in this iteration of TX-07. When Fletcher won the district in 2018, it was an ancestrally Republican swing district, once represented by George H.W. Bush. After Fletcher won a second term over a well-funded GOP challenger in 2020, Texas Republicans chose to cut their losses in redistricting and use Fletcher’s district to mop up as many Democratic voters as possible in the rapidly-growing Houston area, transforming the Seventh from an affluent purple district into a deep-blue, majority-minority district that snakes its way from downtown through southwest Houston into the diverse suburbs of Fort Bend County. Fletcher, a white moderate, is not particularly well-suited to such a district, and she was fairly lucky not to draw a challenger in 2022. Agwan had the potential to seize the missed opportunity of 2022, and at first appeared to be well on his way to providing Fletcher with a tough challenge; he raised money well, staked out staunchly progressive policy stances, and won an early endorsement from Houston DSA. Then, his campaign went off the rails as sexual misconduct allegations against Agwan and a top staffer hit the press. Surprisingly, donations didn’t dry up or even slow down, but Houston DSA withdrew its endorsement and Agwan’s campaign went into meltdown mode. A late poll shows Agwan trailing Fletcher 78%-11%.
TX-16 (El Paso)
Veronica Escobar (i) vs. Leeland White
Result: Escobar 86.3%, White 13.7%
Leeland White is a ghost candidate; Veronica Escobar should have no trouble securing the Democratic nomination for a fourth term.
TX-18 (Houston)
Sheila Jackson Lee (i) vs. Amanda Edwards vs. Robert Slater
Result: Jackson Lee 59.9%, Edwards 37.4%, Slater 2.7%
The thing about running for mayor as a career capstone is that you’re supposed to actually end your career there. Sheila Jackson Lee didn’t, and is now risking having her career ended for her instead. Jackson Lee ran a disastrous campaign for mayor, and had two of her worst tendencies, staff mistreatment and self-aggrandizement, blow up in her face at the end. Meanwhile, the younger Black politician she boxed out of the contest earlier, Houston City Councilmember Amanda Edwards, took that energy and channeled it into a campaign for Jackson Lee’s seat in Congress.
Edwards is the rare ambitious young Democrat who seems to understand that her career advancement might run through the old guard instead of behind them. It would be nice if she were a progressive, but she isn’t, and her winning would mean a Medicare For All supporter gets replaced with an opponent. Sure, it’s debatable how much Jackson Lee actually believes in the policies she thrusts herself into the fight for, but she usually does wind up actually fighting for them.
The one poll of this race comes from the University of Houston, and it found Jackson Lee leading only 43% to 38%, and with a coalition that mirrors how she performed in the mayoral election—solid margins with older Black voters and losing elsewhere.
TX-30 (Dallas)
Jasmine Crockett (i) vs. Jarred Davis
Result: Crockett 91.5%, Davis 8.5%
Jasmine Crockett faces only minor opposition. She’ll coast.
TX-32 (Dallas suburbs)
Callie Butcher vs. Raja Chaudhry vs. Alex Cornwallis vs. Kevin Felder vs. Julie Johnson vs. Zachariah Manning vs. Jan McDowell vs. Justin Moore vs. Christopher Panayiotou vs. Brian Williams
Result: Johnson 50.4%, Williams 19.1%, Moore 7.1%, McDowell 4.9%, Manning 4.6%, Chaudhry 3.6%, Butcher 3.35%, Cornwallis 2.6%, Panayiotou 1.0%
While this race is crowded, two candidates have clearly risen to the top. Dr. Brian Williams and state Rep. Julie Johnson are both clearly running as moderate Democrats, and at times the race between the two has felt like a race to see who can benefit more from shadowy super PACs. Johnson is favored by the local establishment and the bulk of organized labor (including staunchly conservative police unions.) She’s also the first 2024 candidate to make a cynical move that defined the 2022 primary cycle—shamelessly pandering to cryptocurrency interests to benefit from a well-heeled crypto super PAC. In 2022, that cryptocurrency PAC was Protect Our Future, run by FTX’s Sam Bankman-Fried, who now sits in federal prison for perpetuating one of the largest frauds in history. In 2024, the leading crypto PACs are Fairshake and Protect Progress, and it’s the latter that’s spending for Johnson. Why? Well, the aim of both SBF and the next generation of crypto billionaires is to exempt their fraud-plagued industry from the tough scrutiny of the SEC, the federal agency which regulates most investments, either by transferring oversight to the more industry-friendly CFTC or by writing up an entirely new set of rules. In a transparent appeal to the crypto industry first noticed by the Daily Beast, Johnson trots out the industry line on her issues page, claiming that “securities laws from 1933 are not fit for purpose to regulate 21st century technologies.” (American securities law is a complex body of law governing just about every kind of investment vehicle but for a select few, developed and refined over nearly a century; it is more than equipped to handle ape tokens and shitcoins. The industry just doesn’t like being subject to the law, which prohibits insider trading and market manipulation.)
No thanks. If neither Johnson nor Williams achieves a majority, they’ll head to a May runoff.
TX-33 (Ft. Worth and Dallas)
Marc Veasey (i) vs. Carlos Quintanilla
Result: Veasey 68.2%, Quintanilla 31.8%
Carlos Quintanilla seemingly exists to prove that Marc Veasey would be vulnerable to a more serious Hispanic candidate. Quintanilla has run in every election since 2016, always on a budget of $5 and a prayer and always managing between 29% and 37% of the vote. He’ll likely do the same this year.
TX-37 (Austin)
Lloyd Doggett (i) vs. Christopher McNerney vs. Eduardo Romero
Result: Doggett 86.1%, McNerney 7.9%, Romero 6.0%
Eduardo Romero seems like a bit of a ghost candidate, while Christopher McNerney is running a charmingly low-budget campaign that seemingly consists mostly of a website informing voters he wants to take the Democratic Party in a more progressive direction. Lloyd Doggett will coast.
SD-15 (Houston)
Michelle Bonton vs. Alberto Cardenas Jr. vs. Molly Cook vs. Jarvis Johnson vs. Todd Litton vs. Karthik Soora
Result: Johnson 36.1%, Cook 20.65%, Litton 15.8%, Bonton 10.7%, Cardenas 10.5%, Soria 6.25% | Johnson and Cook advance to runoff
What we said a month ago holds true:
The one positive aspect of ConservaDem John Whitmire being elected mayor of Houston is that he’s no longer going to be in the state senate. The special election to succeed him in his north-and-west Houston district is going to be soon. The special election will be held on May 4, but the seat will also be open for the general election, meaning there is also the regularly scheduled primary on March 5, with early voting beginning on February 20. The field has no obvious frontrunner, and the wide roster of candidates includes state Rep. Jarvis Johnson, former congressional candidate Todd Litton, businessman and political organizer Karthik Soora, self-funding lawyer Beto Cardenas, nonprofit director Michelle Bonton, and nurse Molly Cook.
Of those, Cook is the most exciting. Though a few progressives in the state are supporting Soora, it’s Cook, a longtime activist and anti-highway expansion organizer, who is far and away the progressive choice, thanks to an impressive, scrappy campaign for this seat in 2022 that shocked the city when she held John Whitmire to a 58%-42% victory. Cook has support from many activists in the city, and this week two prominent LGBTQ organizations, the LGBTQ+ Victory Fund and the Houston LGBTQ+ Caucus. Cook has yet to re-secure some big endorsements she had in 2022, such as the Working Families Party and DSA, and will be missing out on the volunteers from both groups, but she’ll retain the name recognition she established in that election, which will help her in a less-watched race like this one.
Since then, polling has indicated, the runoff will likely feature two of Cook, Johnson, and Litton, listed in rough order of progressiveness. Cook has also gotten the endorsement of the Working Families Party since we wrote that.
SD-16 (Dallas)
Nathan Johnson (i) vs. Victoria Neave Criado
Result: Johnson 59.15%, Neave Criado 40.85%
State Rep. Victoria Neave Criado surprised observers when she announced she was taking on state Sen. Nathan Johnson. Johnson isn’t particularly progressive, but he doesn’t stand out in a bad way, either—he’s sort of conciliatory towards his Republican colleagues and wants to be a Deals Guy, but when the main deal you want to negotiate is Medicaid expansion, we’ve got no objections (though the prospects of Texas expanding Medicaid are near zero given the staunch opposition of Gov. Greg Abbott and the hard-right turn Johnson’s GOP Senate colleagues have taken in the past decade, so…maybe find another issue?) Neave Criado takes issue with that conciliatory approach—she wants to fight the increasingly far-right Texas GOP tooth and nail. She’s supported by many of her colleagues in the state House and the progressives on the Dallas City Council, as well as the Texas Working Families Party, while labor and business interests are awkwardly united behind Johnson.
HD-22 (Beaumont)
Christian Manuel (i) vs. Luther Wayne Martin III vs. Al Price Jr.
Result: Manuel 73.5%, Price 22.4%, Martin 4.1%
State Rep. Christian Manuel won his first term in a hard-fought primary runoff with a local Democratic Party official. As he seeks reelection for the first time, his path is significantly easier, though not entirely free of obstacles: self-funding attorney Al Price Jr., the son of former longtime state Rep. Al Price Sr., is trying to deny Manuel a second term, and engineer/firefighter Luther Wayne Martin III makes a runoff possible. Manuel is taking Price’s challenge seriously, however, and he should be able to avoid a runoff.
HD-27 (Houston suburbs/Fort Bend County)
Ron Reynolds (i) vs. Rodrigo Carreon
Result: Reynolds 85.5%, Carreon 14.5%
Rodrigo Carreon lost to state Rep. Ron Reynolds by more than 60 points in 2018. Expect something similar tonight.
HD-34 (Corpus Christi)
Roland Barrera vs. Solomon Ortiz Jr.
Result: Ortiz 72.95%, Barrera 27.05%
Solomon Ortiz Jr., the son of former US House Rep. Solomon Ortiz Sr, is, like his dad, a victim of the 2010 Republican wave. That was back when there were two Democratic districts in Corpus Christi. Now that there’s one, and that one is open, so Ortiz is making a comeback. He’s a bit of a moderate (though not nearly as much as his anti-choice dad), but that’s still preferable to Corpus Christi City Councilmember Roland Barrera, an insurance firm owner who has financially contributed to Republican U.S. Rep. Michael Cloud before.
HD-45 (Austin suburbs/San Marcos)
Erin Zwiener (i) vs. Chevo Pastrano
Result: Zwiener 71.0%, Pastrano 29.0%
Erin Zwiener flipped a Republican district in 2018, and was rewarded for surviving 2020 with a new district in 2022, that was safely Democratic, as well as being over 40% Hispanic, meaning the primary electorate is probably majority Hispanic now. She’s a progressive and a proud Democrat who has no interest in giving Republicans an inch. And yet, there may not be a wrong choice in this primary. Lawyer Chevo Pastrano doesn’t sound like a moderate at all. He’s a civil rights attorney who specializes in police brutality cases and wants to bring Medicare for All to Texas.
HD-50 (Austin suburbs)
James Talarico (i) vs. Nathan Boynton
Result: Talarico 84.45%, Boynton 15.55%
James Talarico is the kind of frequently touted “next big thing” that’s probably going to spend the next decade not taking any courageous votes because he’s perpetually planning for his big statewide run, but car dealership owner Nathan Boynton isn’t going to displace him on a budget of $82 and wouldn’t be an improvement anyway.
HD-76 (Houston suburbs/Sugar Land)
Suleman Lalani (i) vs. Vanesia Johnson
Result: Lalani 63.4%, Johnson 36.6%
Look, we don’t want to come across as boosters for big oil fanboy Suleman Lalani, who once voted to declare the state of Texas a “Sanctuary State for Oil and Gas Companies”, but social worker Vanesia Johnson is running on three planks, one of which is “School Choice is Liberation.” Between the two, school choice is obviously more damaging when school vouchers are the biggest fight in the state legislature right now, and it was barely defeated last session. Lalani defeated Johnson 63% to 37% in the 2022 primary runoff, so students in Texas are probably safe from Johnson’s attempts to help them “no longer be held captive by government”.
HD-77 (El Paso)
Alexsandra Annello vs. Norma Chávez vs. Vincent Perez vs. Homer Reza
Result: Perez 38.0%, Chávez 32.2%, Annello 23.6%, Reza 6.3% | Perez and Chávez advance to runoff
Norma Chávez held a predecessor to this seat from 1997 to 2011. Her tenure was ended by a primary loss in 2010 that resulted from a truly terrible 2009 for her that involved ethics scandals and pissing off Democrats by getting far too cozy with Republicans. Calling her opponent gay didn’t save her from losing a primary over that. A 2014 comeback attempt failed, and her entry into the 2018 Congressional primary resulted in a 7% showing that she nevertheless went full election denier over.
Of the normal candidates: Alexsandra Annello is an El Paso City Councilmember (called a City Representative in El Paso) with a progressive reputation and support from labor unions, while County Commissioner Vincent Perez is the candidate of business interests. Homer Reza hasn’t raised much money and is unlikely to make the runoff.
HD-100 (Inner Dallas)
Venton Jones (i) vs. Barbara Mallory Caraway vs. Sandra Crenshaw vs. Justice McFarlane
Result: Jones 50.7%, Mallory Caraway 25.8%, Crenshaw 16.9%, McFarlane 6.6%
Venton Jones, a normal Democrat and rare openly gay politician in Texas, won this district in 2022 by narrowly sliding into 2nd place in the first round, and easily winning the runoff because his opponent was Sandra Crenshaw, a one term Dallas City Councilmember who lost reelection in 1995 and has since run for state house or Dallas council 13 times, never successfully but also usually pulling in 20-30% of the vote somehow. Crenshaw is naturally running again, as is Barbara Mallory Caraway, a remarkably similar figure: three terms in the state house, and then six consecutive unsuccessful runs for TX-30 where she did unusually well for a woman who was clearly a perennial candidate by the end. Between the two of them, Jones might somehow get forced into a runoff, but if he does he’ll win easily. Recent college graduate Justice McFarlane makes that outcome marginally more likely.
HD-109 (South Dallas County)
Aicha Davis vs. Victoria Walton
Result: Davis 61.95%, Walton 38.05%
Incumbent Carl Sherman is leaving to very unsuccessfully run for US Senate, and the Dallas establishment has decided on State Board of Education member Aicha Davis to replace him. Social worker Victoria Walton is running, but has no money or public supporters.
HD-115 (DFW suburbs)
Scarlett Cornwallis va. Cassandra Garcia Hernandez vs. Kate Rumsey
Result: Hernandez 58.4%, Rumsey 30.5%, Cornwallis 11.0%
With Julie Johnson running for Congress, this diverse and now safely Democratic district is now open for anyone who wants to take a crack at it; unfortunately, the candidates who stepped up all seem pretty similar. The race (and runoff, if there is one) will probably come down to lawyer Cassandra Garcia Hernandez and military veteran Kate Rumsey. Both Rumsley and Hernandez are running on standard platforms of opposing Republican efforts to gut reproductive rights and public education. It seems like Hernandez is backed by labor and local Hispanic leaders, which Rumsey has more support from state and national groups, including 2020 KY-Sen candidate Amy McGrath, a total left-field endorsement. Hernandez previously ran for HD-70 in 2022, which is in a different county, causing some to call her opportunistic for seemingly moving to run in this district because it opened up. Community activist Scarlett Cornwallis has put together a respectable campaign thanks to some self-funding, but hasn’t achieved the same traction as Hernandez and Rumsey. We’re also pretty sure she’s married to self-funding TX-32 candidate Alex Cornwallis, but it’s bizarrely hard to verify. All told, all candidates seem fine here, but there aren’t any clear progressives. If it’s anyone, it’s probably Hernandez, who, in addition to labor, is endorsed by the Texas Progressive Caucus.
HD-119 (San Antonio)
Elizabeth Campos (i) vs. Charles Fuentes
Result: Campos 83.6%, Fuentes 16.4%
Elizabeth Campos is a standard Democratic backbencher in the Texas House…whose largest contributors include the right-wing tort reform group Texans for Lawsuit Reform and a PAC called Charter Schools Now, alongside a constellation of corporations and corporate PACs. Charles Fuentes is the legislative director for the Communications Workers of America in San Antonio, and he also serves as a chair of the San Antonio Central Labor Council, so it’s not too surprising his campaign is funded largely by CWA. He’s also supported by the Texas Working Families Party.
HD-125 (San Antonio)
Ray Lopez (i) vs. Eric Michael Garza
Result: Lopez 67.6%, Garza 32.4%
Ray Lopez is a moderate who is against fighting climate change, both figuratively and literally. His narrow, 26-vote primary win in a 2019 special should have made him a good target for a primary challenge, but he didn’t get one until 2022, in the form of lawyer Eric Michael Garza. Despite being badly outspent, Garza only lost 58%-42%, and he’s back to try again. Unfortunately, he faces the same problem as before: none of the San Antonio establishment really wants Lopez replaced with someone more progressive all that badly, even if electoral results show a segment of voters do. Labor unions are supporting Lopez again, and the San Antonio Monitor Express endorsed Lopez over Garza because, they reasoned, someone who’s been in office a long time is more effective than a progressive.
HD-131 (South Houston)
Alma Allen (i) vs. James Guillory vs. Erik Wilson
Result: Allen 58.7%, Guillory 24.0%, Wilson 17.3%
Alma Allen is yet another moderate incumbent with a tendency to vote with Republicans more than she should, especially on religiously-affiliated bills, including HD 3859, the bill that allowed state funded adoption agencies to deny services to gay couples. We wish hotel owner James Guillory were giving us any indication that he’d be better then, but, unfortunately, the only signs we see say he could be worse. He ran in 2022 (losing 54-32) and had one major endorsement in that race: the police unions. Finally, attorney Erik Wilson is the son of former HD-131 Rep. Ron Wilson, and has run a substance-free campaign, potentially just gearing up for when Allen (84) retires.
HD-139 (North Houston)
Rosalind Caesar vs. Jerry Ford Sr. vs. Mo Jenkins vs. Angeanette Thibodeaux vs. Charlene Ward Johnson
Result: Thibodeaux 33.4%, Johnson 24.0%, Jenkins 17.7%, Caesar 17.0%, Ford 8.0% | Thibodeaux and Johnson advance to runoff
Incumbent Jarvis Johnson is running for Senate (see TX-SD-15). After so many districts where it’s hard to find any sign any candidate is progressive, we have the opposite problem here. The Texas Progressive Caucus has endorsed adjunct criminal justice professor Rosalind Caesar and state house staffer Mo Jenkins. Labor is also supporting Jenkins, while Indivisible Houston is behind Caesar. Meanwhile, the local Our Revolution chapter is supporting a third candidate, bank executive and neighborhood council president Angeanette Thibodeaux. Picking one of the three is difficult since none of them really stands out in terms of supporting any progressive causes, or even fully coming out against charter schools, but at least they’re all on good terms with local progressives. Jenkins would be the first out trans member of the Texas legislature, and she’s also pretty young, so that’s pretty cool.
Business owner Jerry Ford (“backs the blue all the way”) and Houston Community College Trustee recently caught drinking during a meeting Charlene Ward Johnson are the only two candidates we can safely say we would prefer not to make the runoff. Johnson was previously married to Jarvis Johnson, though he’s not supporting her campaign.
HD-142 (Northeast Houston)
Harold Dutton Jr. (i) vs. Joyce Chatman vs. Clint Horn vs. Danyahel Norris
Result: Dutton 60.5%, Norris 18.9%, Chatman 15.3%, Horn 5.3%
It feels like Harold Dutton is trying to lose. Supporting the attempted Republican takeover of Houston public schools didn’t make him lose in 2020 (52%-48% victory), and voting to ban trans students from school sports didn’t make him lose in 2022 (51%-49% victory), so now, frustrated more subtle attempts didn’t work, he’s going all out to push voters away: going full-on transphobe by vote and by word, leaving the Black Caucus, making himself the face of the state takeover of Houston schools, and refusing to vote for impeachment of AG Ken Paxton, a comically corrupt politician that even most Republicans in the house voted to impeach. Will Dutton’s obvious efforts to leave the legislature after 40 years succeed? Let’s meet the politicians trying to help him.
Most helpful to Dutton in that regard is probably lawyer Danny Norris, supported by the teachers’ unions, as well as progressives in general. Additionally, Norris is the top fundraiser of the challengers. Pastor Clinton Horn is politically involved, but is floundering without support from the committed anti-Dutton faction. Finally, retired educator Joyce Chatman is a total ghost of a candidate whose campaign only exists on paper.
Naturally, the hacks at the Houston Chronicle have endorsed Dutton.
HD-146 (South Houston)
Shawn Thierry (i) vs. Lauren Ashley Simmons vs. Ashton Woods
Result: Simmons 49.5%, Thierry 44.4%, Woods 6.1% | Simmons and Thierry advance to runoff
Shawn Thierry is the other transphobe the Democrats haven’t kicked out of their caucus yet, alongside Harold Dutton (see above). The representative shocked Democrats when she voted to ban trans healthcare for minors. That vote, and her subsequent doubling down, caused a rift between her and the local party, who voted to censure her. That’s alright by Thierry, who has new friends: Republican donors, who are now funding her campaign. If anyone can displace her, it’s probably union organizer Lauren Ashley Simmons, who identifies as queer. Organized labor, progressive groups, LGBT groups, Beto O’Rourke, even the Houston Chronicle—everyone is backing her campaign, except for the local establishment, which is split at best. One big endorsement Thierry pulled in is the area’s Houston city council member, Carolyn Evans-Shabazz. Civil rights activist Ashton Woods is also running and may even be to the left of Simmons, but has been left behind by the consolidation for Simmons. If this race goes to a runoff, Thierry is in deep trouble since basically every Woods voter should go for Simmons.
Bexar County Sheriff
Javier Salazar (i) vs. Sharon Rodriguez
Result: Salazar 70.7%, Rodriguez 29.3%
Sharon Rodriguez lost to incumbent Javier Salazar 54%-18% in 2020. Now, as the only Salazar challenger, she’ll probably do better than 18%, but it’s quite unlikely she’ll win.
Bexar County Tax Assessor-Collector
Albert Uresti (i) vs. Hatem Merhi
Result: Uresti 82.3%, Merhi 17.7%
Somewhat crankish self-funder Hatem Merhi is determined to make this a real race, but incumbent Tax Assessor-Collector Albert Uresti is easily favored, in part because he’s quite aggressive about reminding voters when he saves them money.
Dallas County Sheriff
Marian Brown (i) vs. Sam Mohamad vs. Rodney Thomas vs. Lupe Valdez vs. Roy Williams Jr.
Result: Brown 42.0%, Valdez 37.7%, Williams 11.1%, Mohamad 5.3%, Thomas 3.9% | Brown and Valdez advance to runoff
Sheriff Marian Brown faces a primary from her predecessor, Lupe Valdez, who gave up the job for a disastrous 2018 gubernatorial campaign against Gov. Greg Abbott. Valdez claims Brown is insufficiently sensitive to the needs and concerns of the sheriff’s department rank-and-file; mostly it seems like she wants back in the game after six years in the wilderness.
El Paso County District Attorney
Nancy Casas vs. James Montoya vs. Alma Trejo
Result: Montoya 37.6%, Trejo 35.5%, Casas 26.9% | Montoya and Trejo advance to runoff
Though all three candidates for this open DA contest either are or were prosecutors, James Montoya stands out slightly for promising to make drug possession the office’s lowest priority, and to establish a Public Integrity Unit to handle police misconduct cases.
Fort Bend County Sheriff
Eric Fagan (i) vs. Sonny Colunga vs. Geneane Hughes vs. Pete Luna
Result: Fagan 55.85%, Hughes 20.5%, Colunga 12.2%, Luna 11.4%
Incumbent Eric Fagan and challengers Sonny Colunga and Pete Luna are all longtime police officers with broadly moderate approaches to policing. (Geneane Hughes is a bit of a gadfly.) What makes this race interesting is how much Colunga is spending—and how little Fagan is. Colunga has outspent the incumbent almost 4 to 1—roughly $86,000 to $23,000. Fort Bend has rapidly gone from red to blue as its demographics have diversified, so the Democratic primary is now the one that matters—and Colunga is spending enough that he may be able to send it to a runoff.
Harris County Attorney
Christian Dashaun Menefee (i) vs. Umeka Lewis
Result: Menefee 69.9%, Lewis 30.1%
Incumbent County Attorney Christian Menefee should be fine, considering civil rights attorney Umeka Lewis doesn’t seem to have done much beyond get on the ballot and set up a charmingly dated website.
Harris County District Attorney
Kim Ogg (i) vs. Sean Teare
Result: Teare 75.0%, Ogg 25.0%
Harris County DA Kim Ogg, if the only publicly released poll is to be believed, is headed for a punishing defeat at the hands of a former employee, Sean Teare, who charges her with betraying the reform mission that voters thought they elected her for in 2016 and cozying up to the increasingly extreme Texas GOP. Both charges are simply true, which is Ogg’s problem—after eight years in office it’s abundantly clear Ogg is a right-wing Democrat with a fondness for Republican rhetoric and racist political stunts. It’s poisoned her relationship with the local Democratic Party, which has voted to censure her, and her fellow politicians, who once upon a time were willing to cut Ogg some slack as a trailblazer for Harris County Democrats but now see her as out of step with a county that clearly prefers Democrats to Republicans. (They also find her office—and Ogg herself—increasingly difficult to work with. This is not helped by Ogg’s habit of criminally investigating politicians who butt heads with her.)
We hope that poll is correct. Ogg deserves to lose.
Harris County Sheriff
Ed Gonzalez (i) vs. Joe Inocencio vs. Vergil Rochelle Ratliff vs. Dana Wolfe
Result: Gonzalez 67.0%, Wolfe 16.3%, Ratliff 12.2%, Inocencio 4.5%
Ed Gonzalez seems well on his way to another term without having to work very hard for it—despite a spiraling crisis of jail deaths on his watch. Just listen to how resigned the Houston Chronicle sounds in its editorial endorsing him—but as they point out, when one challenger (Joe Inocencio) wants to pull deputies off the streets to staff the jail and another (Vergil Ratliff) wants to bring in volunteers to staff the jail, it’s hard to conclude either has the mindset for the job.
Harris County Tax Assessor-Collector
Danielle Keys Bess vs. Desiree Broadnax vs. Claude Cummings III vs. Jerry Davis vs. Annette Ramirez
Result: Ramirez 40.6%, Broadnax 17.5%, Keys Bess 17.0%, Davis 15.4%, Cummings 9.5% | Ramirez and Broadnax advance to runoff
This one is likely headed to a runoff, and there are three people who have a good shot at making it. The first is Annette Ramirez, who’s backed by Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo, the Texas Gulf Coast AFL-CIO, the Houston Chronicle, and Our Revolution Harris County. (Weird coalition, but only because the Chronicle is there—most of her endorsers are liberal to progressive.) According to a UH Hobby School poll, she’s the polling leader with 12% to 7% for the next in line, Danielle Keys Bess—a more moderate option backed by Mayor Sylvester Turner, some unions, and Black Democratic clubs. Keys Bess is fresh off a loss as the de facto Democrat in a Houston City Council At-Large race, giving her name recognition with Democratic primary voters. Finally, there’s former Houston City Councilor Jerry Davis, who has generally kept his name in the conversation over the years by running for stuff and could scrape through to the runoff on the strength of residual name recognition.
Travis County District Attorney
José Garza (i) vs. Jeremy Sylestine
Result: Garza 66.9%, Sylestine 33.1%
José Garza rode the post-George Floyd 2020 reform wave into office, swamping incumbent DA Margaret Moore 68%-32% in a July primary runoff after only leading her 44%-41% in the March first round. Since winning, Garza has governed as promised, shifting the focus of the DA’s office towards violent crime and away from low-level offenses. Since all hell has not, in fact, broken loose in Austin under Garza’s watch, many of the more mainstream Democratic politicians who preferred Moore four years ago are just fine with Garza now. They just might be turned off by the flood of right-wing money behind tough-on-crime challenger Jeremy Sylestine—more than a million dollars, in fact, for a local DA race.