Issue #57

Still ridin' that IL-03 high

It’s going to be a short one today. Most campaigns are either on pause or figuring out how to navigate a new political world. As always, stay safe out there. Also, the deadline for the first quarter fundraising period is coming up on Tuesday, and we’ve privately heard that many challengers, funded mostly by individuals instead of the corporations and PACs of their opponents, are experiencing a cash crunch right now. If you’re in a financially stable situation despite it all, considering giving to something to your favorite challenger(s).

Coronavirus Corner

Pennsylvania will be postponing their primaries from April 28 to June 2, joining Ohio, Maryland, Connecticut, and Indiana, who have already made the move to that day. This will affect PA-18, PA-SD-01, PA-HD-34, PA-HD-36, and all other down ballot primaries in the state

Incumbent Challenges

MA-Sen

Joe Kennedy has suspended normal campaign activity to focus on fundraising for COVID-19 relief, which might be the only good thing he’s done during his entire campaign. He’s calling for $4,000 to all adults making less than $100,000 a year, $2,000 to adults making more than $100,000 a year, and $1k for every child. $4,000 sounds great, but his bill would separate out the assistance into two separate payments over the span of two months, totaling up to $12,000 annually for the average family of four. This is less than the Senate Democrats’ proposal, which would provide up to $18,000 for a family of the same size. If you’re a member of the Progressive Caucus being outflanked on the left by Michael Bennet, there’s a problem here.

Ed Markey, meanwhile, is calling for a “Manhattan Project-type approach” to fight the pandemic, using the full might of the federal government to provide our health care system with the resources needed to adequately treat patients. Our Green New Deal king. The contrast could not be more clear.

MI-13

Rashida Tlaib is a fantastic representative and one of the most progressive members of Congress by far. She’s one of the four representatives who make up “The Squad”, along with AOC, Ilhan Omar, and Ayanna Pressley, and she’s spent her time in the House proposing bold policies (such as a coronavirus stimulus far bigger than the anemic deal Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi have agreed to) and confronting the Trump administration. It’s no surprise, then, that some in the Democratic establishment want her gone, and they’ve found a primary challenger to target her.

Detroit City Council President Brenda Jones narrowly beat Tlaib in 2018 in the primary for the special election to fill the last two months of disgraced Rep. John Conyers’s term, but narrowly lost to her in the primary for the full two-year term on the same day—leading to an unusual situation in which Jones was a lame duck in the House from the moment she was elected. The loss is clearly a sore spot for Jones, who ran a write-in campaign in the general election, and who’s now coming back for a second try.

Tlaib will need to win this election without the help of the DCCC, who, despite an outwardly neutral pro-incumbent stance, pretty clearly tipped their hand on their approach to primaries. They have been willing to campaign and fundraise for Blue Dogs Dan Lipinski and Henry Cuellar but won’t even enforce their own blacklist for a challenger to Tlaib’s fellow Squad member Ilhan Omar.

Tlaib starts with an advantage. According to the most recent public polling, she leads Brenda Jones 56-19 in a potential rematch. That poll not only suggested that Tlaib was favored for re-election in general (an approval rating of 68%, with a disapproval of 13%), but that Jones may be far from an ideal candidate to take on Tlaib. In a hypothetical three-way race with Wayne County Sheriff Benny Napoleon, Tlaib takes slightly less, 51%, but Jones’s vote share goes down to 9%, while Napoleon takes 23%. 

History, also, is not on Jones’s side here. There have been two elections recently where a crowded open seat primary led to a winner with significantly under a majority of the vote, who was then challenged by the runner up. In both instances, the result was a blowout win for the incumbent. In 2006, state Sen. Steve Cohen won the TN-09 primary 31-25 over Nikki Tinker. In a rematch where Tinker was backed by the family dynasty of the third place finisher, Cohen beat her by an incredible 80-19. In 2010, state Sen. Frederica Wilson beat Rudy Moise 34-16 in the open FL-17 primary, and then beat him again 66-34 in the primary for the same seat, renamed FL-24 after redistricting. The case of TN-09 seems more similar in that Cohen’s victory over Tinker was much closer and there was speculation he’d have trouble as a white Congressman in a majority black district, but both examples show that just because someone won with a plurality doesn’t mean they’re necessarily going to be in trouble one-on-one.

OR-03, OR-04, OR-05, OR-HD-42

The Oregon affiliate of the American Federation of Teachers, one of the two major national teachers’ unions, has made endorsements in four hotly contested primaries in which incumbents are facing more progressive challengers. In three of those four, they endorsed the challenger. This is aggressive behavior for what is generally a more mild-mannered union, and we love to see it. Oregon labor, as a whole, has been playing hardball this cycle, starting when the Oregon AFL-CIO (of which AFT-Oregon is a member) announced that they would not be endorsing any Democrat who voted for a pension cut which passed the legislature, a promise they kept.

In OR-03, which covers most of Portland, AFT-Oregon endorsed democratic socialist Albert Lee, an underdog who has raised little money and garnered little press attention, against Rep. Earl Blumenauer, generally a solid progressive, who is endorsed by the Oregon AFL-CIO. This could make things interesting.

In OR-05, AFT-Oregon endorsed Milwaukie mayor Mark Gamba against conservative, anti-union Blue Dog Rep. Kurt Schrader. Schrader sorely deserves to lose, and this endorsement moves us closer to that actually happening. Gamba previously claimed the endorsements of the Oregon Working Families Party and a council of Oregon Teamsters locals. The Oregon AFL-CIO, furious over Kurt Schrader’s lack of support of the PRO ACT, refused to endorse in this race. We would have liked to see them go for the kill instead of just send a message, but we’ll take it either way.

In OR-HD-42, AFT-Oregon endorsed democratic socialist Paige Kreisman against incumbent state Rep. Rob Nosse, joining the Portland Association of Teachers (the Portland affiliate of the National Education Association, the other major national teachers’ union.) Nosse, the state house’s majority whip and normally a good progressive, is in unions’ crosshairs because of his vote for SB 1049, a bill which cut public employees’ pensions; Oregon labor has declined to endorse many legislators for reelection because of SB 1049. Kreisman, a young, disabled trans veteran, also has the endorsement of CWA Local 7901 and the Oregon AFSCME, so she will have plenty of organizational muscle behind her; she also has the backing of the local chapters of DSA and the Sunrise Movement.

One incumbent in a tough race did manage to get the AFT-Oregon’s endorsement. That was OR-04 Rep. Peter DeFazio, chair of the House Transportation Committee, who faces activist Doyle Canning in the primary for this swing district (which, for what it’s worth, Republicans do not seem to be seriously contesting.)

Open Races

NY-17

The Deputy Mayor of Ossining Rika Levin and the former Deputy Mayor of Peekskill Drew Claxton are endorsing Adam Schleifer. Both Ossining and Peekskill fall entirely within NY-17, so Levin and Claxton should have decent connections and name recognition within the district even though “Deputy Mayor” isn’t a big title. If you needed a refresher on Schleifer, he’s a billionaire and we don’t really like him, so we don’t love to see him getting traction. The candidate you want to support in this district — the one who supports the Green New Deal and universal health care, who has endorsements from Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Rep. Ayanna Pressley.