Issue #55

We'll get the IL/OH primary preview out on the week this time, we promise

Incumbent Challenges

Tuesday’s races

Pre-primary reports were due this week in Illinois and Ohio, covering 1/1-2/26 - January and nearly all of February. The week before a primary we like to dig more into fundraising, but a lot of candidates simply didn’t file their pre-primary reports, including, incredibly, everyone in IL-01. However, some last minute donations from Cheri Bustos and David Scott suggest that Bobby Rush may be asking for some last minute help. 

In IL-03, all three candidates are burning through money like crazy. Notably, Marie Newman, thanks to an incredible two months, has more cash on hand than Lipinski going into the final three weeks. This seems to have spooked Lipinski, who, late donation records show, managed to raise over $100,000 on Friday. Which, wow. We can only assume he organized one hell of a fundraiser.

In IL-07, incredibly, Danny Davis isn’t even bothering with some perfunctory campaigning, if only to discourage future challengers. Meanwhile, Kristine Schanbacher, a white moderate in a black majority seat, is up on TV and has secured the endorsement of two local Democratic Committees: the 42nd Ward and Berwyn. Illinois has a tradition of palm cards, where the local town or ward committees hands out a list of every candidate they’ve endorsed at the polls. It’s less heavy handed than the systems in some other states, but they’re often followed by voters in less discussed downballot races, and they’re part of what’s allowed the Chicago machine to keep in power. That’s still a small fraction of the district, of course, but it signals Davis’s loosening hold on his district. It’s a shame that weakness is being exploited by the more moderate Schanbacher instead of progressive challengers Kina Collins or Anthony Clark

In IL-11, Bill Foster doesn’t seem too worried about re-election, and Ventura didn’t file.

And in OH-03, Joyce Beatty decided to bring down the crushing force of her millions in corporate campaign contributions on Harper. That’s not the end of the world. Remember - challengers usually get outspent. Harper looks like she’s at least running online ads and introducing herself to hard-to-reach voters. But like always for a primary challenger, it’s not about whether she can out-spend Beatty, it’s about whether she can out-organize her.

IL-11

Will County Board member Rachel Ventura notched another union endorsement in her very long-shot campaign against Rep. Bill Foster; this time, it’s the Illinois Nurses Association. This endorsement is potentially more powerful than her first union endorsement (the Cook County College Teachers’ Union); as we discussed in our January 29 issue, the CCCTU represents about 5,000 employees of the Cook County College system; Cook County includes only a tiny sliver of IL-11. The Illinois Nurses’ Association represents 3,600 nurses across the state of Illinois, so they presumably have hundreds of members in IL-11 and thousands more in the surrounding Chicago metro area. The INA is a fairly progressive union, having recently endorsed Bernie Sanders for president after previously backing Elizabeth Warren, but it’s still noteworthy for a primary challenger to get labor support against an incumbent with a fairly normal record on labor issues.

MA-Sen

Ed Markey raised a ton of money over the weekend, thanks to a tweet gone viral by a former Elizabeth Warren staffer calling attention to the race, and British-American comedian Rob Delaney tweeting out an old campaign video of Markey and a joint ActBlue donation page with the Bernie Sanders campaign. From Saturday around noon, when the Warren staffer tweeted, to Monday at 10am, Markey raised $57,635 from 1,953 contributors at an average donation of just under $30. As Kennedy outraised Markey by $0.9 million last quarter, this renewed energy and attention to the race could help Markey close the gap this quarter. 

When asked about the donations, Kennedy’s campaign called on Markey to limit outside spending in the race. According to Politico, Kennedy’s spokesman was quoted as saying “ Hopefully these small dollar donations will help Senator Markey realize he doesn't need a Super PAC...We have the People's Pledge ready and waiting for his signature.” (As we have noted before, the outside groups spending on Markey’s behalf include Sunrise Movement, 350 Action, and other environmental groups -- hardly the kind of dark money groups that Kennedy’s campaign is alluding to.)

NY-16

A primary challenger got a union endorsement--and it might not be a good thing? House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Eliot Engel is the most obvious target for a Joe Crowley repeat: an old, white incumbent in a majority-minority district, facing a younger, nonwhite challenger. Right now, there’s a key difference: Crowley only had one challenger. Engel has two. If both remain in the race all the way through June, Engel could easily win renomination with a plurality--and right now it appears that could be happening. Special education teacher Andom Ghebreghiorgis and middle school principal Jamaal Bowman have both been in the race for months, but Bowman has clearly gained more traction: his fundraising has been stronger, he was recruited by Justice Democrats, and progressive activist groups have backed him over Ghebreghiorgis and Engel. 

Ghebreghiorgis has remained in the race, and while he’s clearly not catching up with Bowman, he’s doing well enough to stay alive--most recently with the endorsement of Local One IATSE, which represents stagehands, broadcast technicians, and other entertainment industry workers in New York City. If Ghebreghiorgis was the only candidate against Engel, or if Bowman’s campaign was showing signs of weakness, this would be great news; right now, it worries us. Engel winning with 40% of the vote is the nightmare scenario, and every day this field doesn’t consolidate moves us closer to that.

NY-WFP

The New York Working Families Party, arguably the most powerful arm of the party, made endorsements in a number of state and local primaries last week. For a grassroots progressive group, these endorsements were a bit of a mixed bag.

The NY WFP started out the week by endorsing Mimi Rocah for Westchester district attorney. Rocah is a former SDNY Attorney and MSNBC news commentator who has earned a negative reputation for herself in progressive circles. Last summer, she stated on air, “Bernie makes my skin crawl, and... I see him as a not pro-woman candidate.” Ironic that WFP would endorse Rocah and Bernie Sanders within a week of each other. Rocah also apparently goes around blocking Westchester progressives on Twitter for no apparent reason. Rocah’s vague issues page shows that she’s no Tiffany Cabán, whom the WFP backed for the Queens DA in the primary last June and who now works for the Party, theoretically to get better district attorneys than Rocah elected. Rocah’s opponent, the incumbent Westchester DA Anthony Scarpino, definitely isn’t any better. Honestly, unless a decarceral candidate wants to magically appear and qualify for the ballot in the next couple weeks, this just seems like one of those races you stay out of.

On Thursday the NY WFP endorsed better candidates — Marcela Mitaynes and Jessica González-Rojas, both progressives challenging medicore incumbent Assembly Members. Mitaynes is a bold tenant organizer facing off against the Kings County machine’s incumbent Felix Ortiz. González-Rojas, the Executive Director of National Latina Institute and a health care advocate, is challenging Michael DenDekker, a Joe Crowley-esque white guy representing a majority Latinx district in Queens. Mitaynes and González-Rojas both have to contend with other progressivechallengers as well, but having WFP’s support should give them an edge. In Mitaynes’ case, this endorsement even comes in addition to NYC-DSA’s support. This might be the right moment for their progressive opponents to drop out so that New York’s shitty election laws don’t prevent Mitaynes and Gonzalez-Rojas from consolidating a majority of the vote in each of their districts.

Finally, on Friday, NY WFP made their worst endorsement of the week: they backed Assembly Member Joe Lentol over progressive activist Emily Gallagher. Gallagher, who has lived in the district since 2006, has been a strong advocate for environmental justice and ally to survivors of sexual assault. She would fit right in with new progressive New York State lawmakers like Yuh-Line Niou and Julia Salazar. Lentol has been in office for 47 years and only ever faced a primary challenger once, which is just absurd all around. WFP clearly made the wrong choice here.

TX-SD-27

Social arch-conservative Eddie Lucio Jr’s senate re-election was targeted by two more liberal candidates: Lawyer Sara Stapleton Barrera, and State Board of Education member Ruben Cortez. Lucio almost made it to a majority, which would have won him the primary outright. Instead he got 49.8% of the vote, setting him up for a runoff with Stapelton Barrera, who finished with 35.6%. If Democrats to the left of Pat Roberts want to beat Lucio in this runoff, they’re going to need to coalesce nearly every non-Lucio vote as a first step. That’s why it’s so good to see Cortez endorsing Stapleton Barrera this week. The runoff is on 5/26.

Open Races

IN-01

Retiring Rep. Pete Visclosky has finally made his choice for which Democrat he wants to succeed him in Congress, and the endorsement goes to… North Township Trustee Frank Mrvan. What a dispiriting choice. Mrvan, who currently represents a very local level of government and almost certainly owes his career to his father, state senator Frank Mrvan Jr, is running an mostly-policy free campaign, and what policy he has talked about places him as the most moderate candidate in the race outside of Hammond Mayor Tom McDermott, who has bad blood between him and Visclosky. For instance, Mrvan’s healthcare plan isn’t even a public option. It’s a Medicare buy-in. It’s disappointing that Visclosky would endorse Mrvan over the field of superior Democrats such as progressive attorney Jim Harper, or state Rep. Mara Candelaria Reardon, who for years has been a solid vote in the House, and who Visclosky has a good relationship with. But it’s not entirely surprising from Visclosky, an old-school politician who used to be considerably less liberal.

Also endorsing Mrvan is United Steel Workers, the largest union in the district. Both endorsements come at a good time for Mrvan, who trails most of the field in fundraising, pulling in only $48,000 in Q4, with an additional $5,600 self-funded. United Steel Workers are the second major union to endorse in this race, after SMART, who are backing Mara Candeleria Reardon.

NM-03

New Mexico uses a hybrid convention/petitioning system for ballots. What this means is that while every candidate is welcome to qualify for the ballot with petitions like in most states, the Democratic Party also holds a convention with delegates selected at county conventions, and any candidate with at least 20% of the delegate count is qualified for the ballot. Furthermore, the caucus decides ballot order: the delegate leader gets the top ballot line, the runner up gets second, and so on, with all candidates who qualified through petitions being placed below the caucus qualifiers on the ballot. This makes the convention, which is attended by a few hundred party activists who should not be confused for typical voters, important and a good test of organization and appeal to high-engagement voters, but not necessarily predictive of the primary. In 2018, the NM-01 convention picked the eventual winner Debra Halaand, but eventual second place finisher Damon Martinez got 5th, with only 11% of the vote, before finishing with 26% in the primary.

This year’s NM-03 convention was held this weekend, and resulted in a strong finish for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Congressional Progressive Caucus-endorsed attorney Teresa Leger Fernandez, who took 41.9% of delegates. This is good news for her for the obvious reasons of ballot placement, but also in how she compared to the other candidates in this race who have been perceived as the top tier.

The second place finisher was a surprise to us: Laura Montoya, Sandoval County treasurer, who barely cleared the 20% threshold earning her a place on the ballot. It sounds like Montoya’s support was primarily from her part of the district, and may be the result of a local official being well-known to party activists, despite her contentious tenure. No other candidate came close to the 20% threshold, although, District Attorney Marco Serna and state Rep. Joe Sanchez, who both cleared 10%, still represented a tier above the remaining three candidates: Kyle Tisdel, John Blair, and Valarie Plame, who all came in at 5% or lower. This may not be a meaningful blow to the Plame campaign in terms of material effects, but it does show the lack of inroads she’s made among a certain kind of voter.

Environmental attorney Kyle Tisdel says that he already has the signatures needed to make the ballot, and his poor convention showing was partly a result of him not bothering with the convention. Sure that’s probably partly spin, but it’s not like he really needed the convention if he had the signatures. Valarie Plame, Marco Serna, and Joe Sanchez all say they’re going to attempt to petition their way onto the ballot. That leaves John Blair the odd man out who hasn’t specified his plans, but we’ll know in less than a week when the signature deadline comes.

NY-15

Mayor Carmen Yulín Cruz Soto of San Juan, Puerto Rico has endorsed former City Council Speaker Melissa Mark-Viverito for Congress. Normally, we’d say that Soto’s endorsement doesn’t have much power seeing as she doesn’t represent a city anywhere near NY-15, but in this case she might actually have a bit of pull as NY-15 has a historically large Puerto Rican population and this endorsement could maybe help Mark-Viverito convince people that even though she doesn’t actually live in NY-15 (or even in the same borough), as a person from Puerto Rico herself, she could actually be representative of the district.

NY-17

New York politicians’ famed ethics and commitment to clean governance struck again this week! Assemblyman David Buchwald and literal Republican state Sen. David Carlucci have both been using taxpayer-funded mailers to promote themselves. While the mailers don’t mention either man’s campaign for the Democratic nomination in this safely blue seat, they look an awful lot like positive campaign mailers. I mean, just look at these things.

While he may be doing some light corruption, Buchwald got some good news: Catherine Borgia, a Westchester County Legislator who very briefly ran for this seat, endorsed him this morning.

Meanwhile, Adam Schleifer is up on TV--notable because the New York City media market is wildly expensive, and normally cost-prohibitive to House candidates. Of course, if your dad is a pharmaceutical billionaire, that changes things. (Explains why Adam is pretty defensive of billionaires on his personal Twitter, likening criticism of billionaires to anti-Semitism and Islamophobia. A wealth tax can’t come soon enough.)