9/8 primary preview part 2

Rhode Island’s state house

This is the second half of our primary preview, covering Rhode Island’s state house. You can read Part 1, covering New Hampshire and Rhode Island’s state Senate, here. Like the Rhode Island portion of Part 1, this was written by Eli Spencer Heyman, a leftist analyst in Providence.

State House primaries

Speaker Nicholas Mattiello, a very conservative Democrat who represents a western Cranston district, doesn’t have a primary, although he does face a strong general election challenger, Barbara Ann Fenton-Fung, and his district is rather red. Mattiello is considered the de facto leader of the Rhode Island Democratic Party, and as Speaker in a state with a notoriously weak governorship, he is the most powerful person in Rhode Island. Unlike Ruggerio, who received the support of all but 2 of the Senate’s 38 members in 2019, there is a significant bloc in the 75-member House explicitly opposed to Mattiello’s speakership, which comprises about 20 Democrats plus the 9 Republicans, enough to hypothetically block a budget (which needs two-thirds support to pass). Mattiello ascended to the speakership in 2014 after a few days of intense jockeying to succeed Gordon Fox, who was no longer the Speaker because he had just been arrested by the FBI. Mattiello’s position as speaker is secured by a flank of center-left Democrats who believe in his leadership (whether sincerely or out of self-interest), but his core constituency is the party’s conservative faction, and if he loses in November, a more progressive speaker – or, at least, one who is willing to make the House more democratic – might be elected to fill the power vacuum.

HD 3

District description: Fully within Providence. Core neighborhoods: Parts of Charles, Wanskuck, and Smith Hill.

Moira [MORE-ah] Walsh, a left-wing Democrat in her second term, faces a challenge from local principal Nathan Biah [BEE-ah]. Walsh is listed first on the ballot, but the district committee did not make an endorsement here.

Biah received a soft endorsement from RI RtL, indicating that they don’t know his position on abortion or have a survey from him but they know they don’t like Walsh’s; asked for comment on Twitter, he said, “I do not accept endorsements I did not apply for.”

Walsh won by a comfortable but not huge margin in 2018 against Michael Earnheart, a Trump supporter who the RIDP infamously endorsed at first. Dan McKee won the district by a wider margin. Unlike Earnheart, Biah is not a Trump supporter and has not made the RIDP the laughingstock of the nation; logically, he should be a stronger challenger. He is also Black, and this is one of the least white districts in the entire state, but if its voters see Walsh as someone who will fight for them, they will probably reelect her. Walsh is certainly someone who fights for working people in her district; her status as one of the most vocal opponents of House leadership could cut in either direction. She is the only General Assembly incumbent who is part of the Co-Op.

Rating: Tilt Walsh

HD 7

District description: Fully within Providence. Core neighborhoods: Parts of Mount Pleasant and Elmhurst, and a small part of Valley.

Rep. Dan McKiernan faces two opponents. Sunrise RI and PvDSA organizer David Morales is running on one of the most left-wing platforms in the state and has the support of Reclaim RI as well as both groups he has organized for. Angel Subervi, a former official in Mayor Jorge Elorza’s administration, has the endorsement of the district party committee, which is led by former state Rep. Joanne Giannini. The ballot order is: Subervi, McKiernan, Morales. Julia Rock wrote about this race; she always digs deep enough to get to the heart of a story, and I highly recommend reading her article.

In 2018, the committee endorsed Belen Florez’s challenge to McKiernan; she lost by 130 votes, or about 7%. That race received some attention when state party chair Joseph McNamara submitted an endorsement of McKiernan, which was invalid because the district committee had properly submitted its endorsement of Florez; the state party purportedly marshaled its resources in support of McKiernan anyway. Florez argued that she was being targeted for being a “progressive woman”, despite having no public stance on abortion, an issue emphasized by almost every self-described progressive candidate in Rhode Island that year. For his part, McKiernan asserted that he did not seek the endorsement because Giannini was out to get him anyway, and he voted for the Reproductive Privacy Act in 2019.

Moving back to the 2020 election, it is difficult to predict what will happen here. It would be a tough enough guess in a one-on-one race. Since filing, Subervi has heavily outraised and outspent both McKiernan and Morales; Morales had previously outspent and outraised McKiernan, but in the most recent report he fell to third in both metrics. However, Morales has been running for quite a while and has a strong volunteer base. According to Julia’s article, as of August 10, Morales’s average donation was under $60; McKiernan had received two $1,000 checks from party leadership; and Subervi’s financial base was “a few dozen large donations, mostly from government employees and small business owners.”

As Julia says, “The results of the House District 7 race won’t just reveal whether Rhode Island voters have an appetite for the progressive platform of a DSA, Sunrise, and Reclaim RI-backed candidate, but will also show whether these organizations are building the type of organizing capacity that can achieve electoral victories.”

My best guess is that they have, especially with the establishment vote likely split. However, it is worth noting that there may be a substantial contingent of white voters in this district who are not open to voting for a Hispanic candidate.

CVAP 2014-18: 44.6% white, 28.7% Hispanic, 21.0% Black

TPOP 2014-18: 41.3% Hispanic, 34.2% white, 18.3% Black

Rating: Tilt Morales

HD 8

District description: Fully within Providence. Core neighborhoods: Federal Hill and parts of Valley and Olneyville.

Rep. John Lombardi, a center-left Democrat, faces a challenge from Darwin Castro, who appears to have almost no campaign. I don’t have much to say about this one.

Rating: Safe Lombardi

HD 11

District description: Fully within Providence. Neighborhoods: Almost all of Elmwood, plus small parts of South Elmwood, Washington Park, and the West End.

Grace Diaz, a close ally of conservative House Speaker Nicholas Mattiello, faces yet another challenge from Laura Perez, who she defeated by a 40% margin in 2016 and a 47% margin in 2018. In 2018, Perez spent thousands of dollars that she loaned her campaign, while this year, she has filed a CF-5, which exempts her from filing the otherwise required disclosures unless she spends over $1,000. (She still must file an annual summary.) None of the organizations I track have endorsed Perez. Given all this, the outcome here seems a foregone conclusion.

Rating: Safe Diaz

HD 12

District description: Fully within Providence. Core neighborhoods: Lower South Providence, most of Washington Park, and parts of Upper South Providence.

Rep. Joe Almeida, a reliable progressive who nearly lost reelection to an independent in 2016 after pleading no contest to charges of violating campaign finance law the previous year, is retiring. José Batista, an attorney and public defender, and Carlos Cedeno [pronounced Cedeño, as far as I can tell] are squaring off to replace him. The district committee did not endorse. Batista serves as the executive director of the Providence External Review Authority (PERA), a citizen oversight commission for the police department. Almeida and Sen. Harold Metts, whose district contains a large portion of HD 12, have endorsed Cedeno, as has nearby Rep. Grace Diaz, while nearby state Sen. Ana Quezada and organizations including RI NOW support Batista. [The remainder of HD 12 is in Cranston Sen. Josh Miller’s district; he has stayed out of the race, as far as I can tell.]

Cedeno finished in last place (third) in the 2018 primary for SD 6. He purportedly had a strong mail ballot operation, and indeed he won mail ballots, which seems relevant, given that they are likely to be very common this year. While he has raised and spent substantially more money than his low-budget 2018 campaign, Batista has nevertheless easily outpaced him. Batista was also the only candidate to accept an interview request for the Pulse of Providence series; you can watch his interview here. “I’m running for State Representative as an extension of the work that I’ve done,” Batista told WPRI’s Steph Machado near the end of the interview. He says he would not step down from his role at PERA if elected. While this would not create a material conflict of interest for Batista himself, his ability to do one job could be constrained by his actions in the other.

Cedeno is acting like a longtime incumbent facing a no-name challenger, which is kind of bizarre considering that it is an open seat and Batista is a somewhat well-known figure, and yet it might actually work.

Rating: None

HD 13

District description: Parts of Providence’s Hartford and Silverlake neighborhoods, as well as the southeastern corner of the town of Johnston.

Mario Mendez faces two challengers: Ramon Perez, who he ousted from the seat in 2018, and realtor Janice Falconer. In his two-year tenure, Perez distinguished himself in a couple of ways: he was extremely conservative on abortion, and he twice engaged in behavior that was at best embarrassing and at worst sexual harassment. Mendez narrowly defeated him in the 2018 primary with the support of pro-choice groups, voted for Mattiello for speaker (and for the RPA) in 2019, and has not been very visible since then. Falconer is positioning herself as the progressive choice, and has the support of YDRI and the Sierra Club, but most left-wing groups have not touched this race. Nevertheless, there is a real danger of the progressive vote being split here.

Rating: Tossup between all three candidates

HD 16

District description: Fully within Cranston. If you drew a rectangle around Cranston, this district would be in the center of that rectangle.

First-term Rep. Chris Millea, who is close to Mattiello, faces Co-Op member Brandon Potter, a former general sales manager for a local car dealership who was laid off due to the pandemic. Millea, a criminal defense attorney who is also an assistant city solicitor for Cranston, defeated Republican incumbent Robert Lancia in a close 2018 race and has not distinguished himself since.

Millea has the support of the Providence Chamber and RI Right to Life, as well as at least three major labor unions and multiple police unions, while Potter has the support of several left-wing groups, some pro-choice and environmental groups, the RICAGV, and 1199 SEIU. He has benefited from over $10,000 in spending on the SEIU’s independent expenditure campaign against opponents of the Nursing Home Staffing and Quality Care Act, which was shelved by the House and replaced with a study commission.

The Cranston Herald profiled both Millea and Potter in Aug. 26 articles; note that despite what the article says, the NRA’s endorsement of Millea was in 2018, not this year. Millea told the Herald he looks up to John F. Kennedy politically. (Kennedy is often cited by Rhode Island conservatives as a political model, for reasons I don’t totally understand. His Catholicism presumably has something to do with it.)

This is a Regunberg district, voting for him by a 4.7% margin. It is one of the redder districts being contested by the Co-Op, voting for Clinton by only 2.2%. The general election here against Maryann Lancia (Robert’s wife) will likely be competitive. Also, note both parties have high-profile primaries for mayor of Cranston, which may result in a more liberal Democratic electorate there than usual.

Rating: Tilt Potter

HD 19

District description: Mostly within Warwick (in the city’s northeast, specifically north of Occupessatuxet Cove and bounded on the west by Fairfax Drive, then by Warwick Avenue), plus part of the village of Edgewood, which is in Cranston. Contains Gaspee Point, Pawtuxet Village, and part of Pilgrim Park, which are all in Warwick.

Rep. Joe McNamara, who chairs the state party, is being challenged by Stuart Wilson, a stay-at-home father and former teacher who is clearly to his left but has attracted very little organizational support. McNamara, a retired educator, was first elected in 1994. Pro-choice groups are split here, while the RICAGV, the Chamber, and four of six tracked unions back McNamara. Wilson has nevertheless managed to be competitive in fundraising and spending.

Regunberg won this district by a comfortable 10.2% margin.

The Warwick Beacon covered this race in an Aug. 20 article.

Rating: Lean McNamara

HD 27

District description: The western reaches of Warwick (dominated on a map by a large shopping center and farmland), southern West Warwick, and the southeastern corner of Coventry.

Rep. Patricia Serpa, a retired public school educator who was first elected in 2006, faces Nicholas Delmenico in a rematch of the 2016 primary, which she won by 10%. (She was unopposed in the 2018 primary.) Serpa, the chair of the House Oversight Committee, has attacked Delmenico over his progressive positions, often making misleading or false claims about what those positions are. For his part, Delmenico has criticized Serpa for dropping the investigation into the 38 Studios scandal shortly after she became chair; this is a pretty concrete example of the corruption endemic to the State House, and I suspect it will have some resonance.

Delmenico, who works as a production manager and is part of the Co-Op, is backed by a scattering of left-wing, environmental, and pro-choice groups as well as the UAW, while the RICAGV, RI Right to Life, and three of six tracked unions are behind Serpa.

This district narrowly backed Regunberg in 2018, giving him a 2.4% margin.

Rating: Tilt Delmenico

HD 34

District description: Southern Narragansett and most of the village of Wakefield-Peacedale, which is in South Kingstown.

Rep. Teresa Tanzi, a realtor first elected in 2010, is being challenged by Gina Giramma, a local civics teacher. Tanzi, a prominent progressive, is backed by pro-choice groups, the RICAGV, most unions, and the non-Sunrise environmental groups, as well as a couple of left-wing groups. Regunberg won just shy of 60% of the vote here.

The Narragansett Times spoke to Giramma for an Aug. 7 article.

Rating: Safe Tanzi

HD 35

District description: Fully within South Kingstown, covering a diagonal from the town’s northwestern corner to the southeastern coast.

Rep. Kathleen Fogarty, an industrial security specialist at Raytheon, faces a challenge from former Rep. Spencer Dickinson, who came in a distant third in the 2018 gubernatorial primary. Dickinson defeated then-incumbent Michael Rice by 5.6% in the 2010 primary. Since then, he and Fogarty have faced off one-on-one several times. Dickinson held off a challenge from Fogarty by 5.6% in 2012, but Fogarty came back to defeat Dickinson by 2.6% in the 2014 primary; in 2016, her margin over Dickinson grew to 9.8%. She’s a mainstream liberal endorsed by pro-choice groups and most unions as well as the RI WFP. She has been outspent almost 10-to-1 by Dickinson, who is self-funding. The district voted for Regunberg by 16.2%, and Dickinson did not exactly do well here in his gubernatorial campaign.

Fogarty could probably stave off a conservative challenger without issue, but Dickinson, who works as a homebuilder, is arguably to her left. He has historically focused on environmental issues. Still, he has lost to her twice at this point and lacks meaningful institutional support; while none of the environmental groups are backing Fogarty, they haven’t endorsed Dickinson either.

Rating: Lean Fogarty

HD 38

District description: All of Hopkinton except its northernmost reaches, plus the northernmost reaches of Westerly.

Rep. Brian Patrick Kennedy, a realtor who has no relation to the prominent Kennedy family (that I know of), is being challenged by Miguel Torres, a Sunrise organizer and URI student. Kennedy is the Dean (longest-serving member) of the House, having first been elected in 1988. Torres, a Co-Op member, is the first primary opponent Kennedy has had since that year, when he defeated James M. Mageu in a very low-turnout Democratic primary, 110 to 106.

Not unlike Sen. Stephen Archambault, who represents a completely different part of the state, Kennedy is supported by RtL and the NRA; the Chamber has also endorsed him. Torres is supported by a couple of left-wing groups, all environmental groups, and the RI Latino PAC (RILPAC). No unions that I track have endorsed in the race.

Aaron Regunberg won by 1.8% here (50.9% to 49.1%). It is relatively Republican, voting for Donald Trump by 6.8%, but in 2018 it voted for every statewide Democrat, including Gov. Gina Raimondo, who won it by 9.2%. Kennedy has been around for a while, but he does not have strong institutional support outside of the most conservative interest groups, and in this coastal district, environmental issues are likely to be especially salient. Kennedy has a large advantage in terms of cash on hand, but Torres has consistently outraised him and was close to parity in spending in the last report.

Rating: Pure Tossup

HD 43

District description: Northeastern Johnston.

Rep. Deborah Fellela, a school secretary who is a member of Mattiello’s leadership team, faces a challenge from Melinda López, an educator. The Johnston Sun Rise covered some of López’s endorsements on Aug. 7 and published an article on the Republican candidate’s campaign the same day. It published a Jul. 31 article about Fellela receiving the district committee’s endorsement. López is clearly the more progressive candidate, but she is not a member of either the Co-Op or the Reclaim slate and is not endorsed by Sunrise, either. The pro-choice groups back her, as do the RI WFP, the RICAGV, CARI, RILPAC, and YDRI. (The RI Values Project, a joint PPVRI/RICAGV venture, has put some money behind her candidacy.) Five of the six unions I track back Fellela, with the more left-leaning UAW staying out.

López does not have the sort of broad progressive support that she would need to win even in a friendlier district than this one, nor does she have any backing from organized labor. Dan McKee won 59.8% of the vote here in the 2018 primary, and it is a Trump district. I won’t say an upset is completely impossible here, but Fellela is the clear favorite, whatever the margin might be in the end. If she loses, the night is probably going really poorly for Democratic leadership.

Rating: Likely Fellela

HD 61

District description: Fully within Pawtucket. Core neighborhoods: Parts of Pine Crest and Darlington.

Raymond Johnston Jr., faces a challenge from Leonela Felix, a member of the Reclaim slate who also has the backing of pro-choice groups, gun control groups, and SEIU district 1199, a healthcare workers’ union that has spent nearly $20,000 in support of her candidacy (see HD 16 for discussion of the context). Johnston is backed by several other unions…

This is a somewhat conservative district, backing Dan McKee 57.9% to 42.1% (fairly typically for Pawtucket).

Rating: Pure Tossup

HD 64

District description: Fully within East Providence. Located in the center-west of the city.

First-term Rep. Jose Serodio, who eked out a 2018 victory over CPC director David O'Connell, is being challenged by Brianna Henries, a theater teacher and minister who is part of the Co-Op. Serodio revealed himself to be pro-life in 2019 when he removed his name from the RHCA (after consulting with O'Connell). Henries is pro-choice… No unions have backed Henries, but a few have stayed out.

Dan McKee won 50.6% here, a bit worse than his citywide vote share of 51.2%.

Rating: Tilt Henries

HD 71

District description: The entire town of Little Compton, along with southern Tiverton and parts of northeastern Portsmouth. (The district contains most of Tiverton’s area, but not most of its population.)

Rep. Dennis Canario is vacating this seat. John Edwards V, the son of nearby Rep. Jay Edwards, and Michelle McGaw, a pharmacist who sits on some local boards, are running to replace him. Three of six tracked unions support Edwards, while McGaw has the support of a rather broad array of progressive groups, including the Co-Op.

The five-member district committee is also up for election, with a full pro-Edwards slate of endorsed candidates and what I assume is a full pro-McGaw slate. If whoever loses this year’s primary still wins control of the committee, it ups the odds of a rematch in 2022.

Regunberg won 54.5% to 45.5% here, winning the Tiverton portion and Little Compton but losing the Portsmouth portion by 1 vote, or 0.2%. This is a coastal district, with a small portion that is literally on an island.

Rating: Tilt McGaw

HD 72

District description: Southern Portsmouth and eastern Middletown. This district is entirely on Aquidneck Island (officially Rhode Island, but known as Aquidneck, from the name used by the Narragansett people, to distinguish it from the state).

First-term Rep. Terri-Denise Cortvriend, who owns a marine plumbing firm, faces a primary challenge from Christopher Semonelli. Cortvriend, who defeated Republican incumbent Kenneth Mendonca in 2018, has progressive positions and voted against Mattiello for speaker. She is backed by pro-choice and environmental groups as well as RICAGV and four of six tracked unions; Semonelli has no endorsements that I know of but has been near parity in fundraising (although that isn’t saying much). This district gave Dan McKee 51.4% of the vote.

Rating: Likely Cortvriend

HD 74

District description: The entire town of Jamestown, plus northwestern Middletown.

Rep. Deborah Ruggiero, a progressive who leads an advertising company, was first elected in 2008; she is being challenged by Henry F. Lombardi Jr., whose campaign has been rather low-profile. Like Cortvriend, she is backed by pro-choice and environmental groups along with RICAGV and four of six tracked unions (a different set of four).

This is another island district, and it voted for Regunberg by a 4.6% margin, powered by his strength in Jamestown.

Rating: Safe Ruggiero