9/8 primary preview part 1

did you know New Hampshire once voted for a person named Dudley Dudley

New Hampshire and Rhode Island vote tonight. There are very few primaries going on in New Hampshire, and the biggest one (for the nomination to take on Republican Gov. Chris Sununu) is one we can’t cover. Rhode Island more than makes up for it, with so many primaries we are once again forced to clog your inbox with a second email. All New Hampshire primaries and the Rhode Island State Senate are in this half of the preview; the Rhode Island State House will be the other half.

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New Hampshire

SD-05 Hanover, Lebanon, and south along the border

Beatriz Pastor vs. Suzanne “Sue” Prentiss 

This very blue district contains the university of Dartmouth, which normally has about 10,000 students and staff but will have considerably fewer this year due to a significant reduction in in-person classes thanks to the coronavirus. One of those professors is Beatriz Pastor, who previously served in the State House from 2009-2015 and is now running for this open seat. Pastor grew up in Franco’s Spain, and after her underground anti-Franco political activities were broken up, she studied in America, after which she spent some time as an undocumented immigrant before becoming a citizen and eventually professor of Spanish at Dartmouth, a position she’s held for decades. Her candidacy has focused on education and environmental issues, and she’s been endorsed by scores of local politicians. 

Sue Prentiss, meanwhile, is a longtime councilor and former mayor of Lebanon. Earlier this year she endorsed Pete Buttigieg for president, something he made a big deal of promoting because she was the Republican mayor of Lebanon. In fact, she was a longtime Republican until some point in the last few years. This supports our thesis of “municipal politicians tend to suck”, something that Pastor agrees with, incidentally. Prentiss, unfortunately, has endorsements from fellow Lebanon politicians and some labor unions.

SD-15 Concord

Candace Bouchard vs. Paul Hodes vs. Becky Whitley 

Dan Feltes is running for governor and leaving this district open, creating a relatively busy (for New Hampshire) field in his wake. First up is Candace Bouchard, a former state representative (1998-2014), and current Concord City Councilor (2008-present). Bouchard was a solid liberal in the legislature and has been active in the party for a while, playing a role on Obama’s re-election team. She’s the choice of most local Democratic politicians, including the mayor of Concord and most of her fellow City Councilors. 

That stands in contrast to Paul Hodes, a true blast from the past. Hodes was a 2006 wave baby who defeated Charlie Bass in the 2nd Congressional District, spent two terms in Congress, and then ran for Senate in 2010 in a truly astounding disaster of a campaign that ended in a 23% loss to Kelly Ayotte. Hodes disappeared after that, re-emerging last year as both a potential candidate for SD-15 and as the senior campaign advisor to Marianne Williamson. As you may be able to guess from the Williamson thing, in Congress Hodes was largely progressive but occasionally idiosyncratic. Still, he’s on good terms with the state party; he boasts the endorsement of former Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter, generally a progressive, but also has the support of state party chair Billy Shaheen, the husband of US Senator Jeanne Shaheen. Hodes’s big-idea platform plank this election is the creation of a state bank, which is quite cool and probably warrants his election to the state Senate. 

But it’s not like we’d be disappointed by Becky Whitley either. Whitley, an attorney who’s been crafting policy at the state level for a while now, is also running a relatively progressive campaign and is talking about implementing a state income tax in response to the coronavirus budget hole, which is a serious third rail in the state which takes major guts to breach. She has the endorsement of Annie Kuster, the moderate Democrat who represents this area in Congress, which is a bit of a red flag, but Kuster has pushed herself to endorse as many women as possible this cycle, so it may not be anything policy-related.

SD-21 Seacoast

Deaglan McEachern vs. Rebecca Perkins Kwoka

Deaglan McEachern is a bit of a dynasty case, in that his dad spent some time in the state house and ran for governor in the 80s, but considering that Deaglan ran for Congress two years ago and got less than 3% of the vote in the primary, we think it’s safe to say he’s starting from about where anyone else would. He spent over $200,000 in that race, which bodes poorly for him, but he did get nearly 10% of the vote in this state Senate district and then won election to Portsmouth City Council in 2019, so maybe not that poorly. He ran as an unabashed progressive in that race, touting Medicare for All especially. He’s also probably the more progressive choice here, and is backed by the NEA and SEIU, two of the best unions in the state. Rebecca Perkins Kwoka is the more establishment candidate, but isn’t necessarily bad. She’s also on the Portsmouth City Council, a member of the LGBTQ community, and also a supporter of Medicare for All. Neither outcome would be bad here, really, they’re both fairly progressive rising stars. 

It’s been an ugly race. Kwoka has sought to make an issue of McEachern’s questionable residency (you need 7 years in New Hampshire and he may only have 5), which he has called a “Republican-style attack”. She’s also tried to make an issue of his more privileged upbringing. Check out this line from her website: “[S]he was managing employees and working 30+ hours per week while also attending high school. While most of her peers at Exeter rowed crew or played lacrosse after school, she ran the drive-thru.” McEachern attended Exeter the same year as Kwoka and was a star rower who nearly made the Olympics. Yeah, she’s talking about him. McEachern has gone after Kwoka for voting in the 2016 Republican primary instead of the Democratic one. Her explanation that she thought the choice between Trump and Kasich was more important than between Bernie and Hillary is technically believable but the kind of thing that’s guaranteed to infuriate us, as well as McEachern, who’s been vocally pro-Bernie.

Executive Council District 2 Concord, Keene, Durham, Dover, Rochester

Cinde Warmington vs. Emmett Soldati vs. John Shea vs. Leah Plunkett vs. Jay Surdukowski vs. Craig Thompson

The New Hampshire Executive Council is a weird body that mostly oversees gubernatorial appointments (as well as some state budget matters), but unlike the similar one in Massachusetts, New Hampshire's occasionally actually uses its oversight abilities, making it a relatively important body. It’s also a springboard for higher office; current Gov. Chris Sununu, current US Rep. Chris Pappas, former Sen. Judd Gregg, 2016 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Colin Van Ostern, and 2020 Democratic gubernatorial primary candidate Andru Volinsky are all former or current members of the body. Who sits on the Executive Council today has implications for who serves in Congress and the governorship in the near future.

This seat is being vacated by Volinsky, and it’s the only one of the council’s five districts that is relatively safe for either party. Hillary Clinton carried it 51% to 41%, and it voted for 2018 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Molly Kelly by six points even as Republican Gov. Sununu was winning by seven points statewide. Look, it’s hard to explain because everything seems purple in New Hampshire, but this district is blue, okay? It was drawn as a Demoratic vote sink.

Anyway, the primary here is a crowded mess. You have six candidates, all of them at least sort of serious: Cinde Warmington, an attorney and member of the New Hampshire Democratic Party’s Platform Committee; John D. Shea, who was a nobody when he first won a seat on the council in the 2006 Democratic wave but can’t be described as such now, having remained in office until 2011; Craig Thompson, a state representative; Leah Plunkett, an associate dean at the University of New Hampshire’s law school; Jay Surdukowski, an attorney who served on the New Hampshire Democratic Party’s Executive Committee; and Emmett Soldati, a progressive activist who is the son of Lincoln Soldati, a former mayor of Somersworth, Strafford County Attorney, and 2018 Democratic candidate for Congress. None of the candidates can be counted out; however, Warmington is probably the favorite, having raised the most money ($248,000) and having gotten a long list of endorsements from prominent New Hampshire politicians (including, amusingly, a former Executive Councilor named Dudley Dudley. Annie Kuster and Carol Shea-Porter are on there too, but...Dudley Dudley.)

Unfortunately, it’s hard to get a grip on the ideology of many of the candidates: Shea has zero online presence and has not filed any campaign finance reports. He actually held this office before after he threw his name on the ballot in 2006 so the Republican wasn’t uncontested and then found out he won while on vacation in Belgium. He got washed out in the 2010 wave. Warmington seems to be running on being a Democrat with the support of prominent Democrats, which doesn’t inspire much confidence as to the existence of any strong ideological convictions. Plunkett seems alright, having the support of Planned Parenthood and the state NEA affiliate, but she doesn’t establish herself firmly on the party’s left wing. Surdukowski is an alum of campaigns including Martin O’Malley and Beto O’Rourke, so...we’ll pass, probably. Thompson’s website includes postcards he made in the course of his advocacy against Sununu; one quotes Reagan to argue for gun control, and another says “Tax relief and school funding. We can have it both ways!” (You can’t. That’s not how state-funded public goods work, Craig.) That leaves Soldati.

Emmett Soldati’s dad, Lincoln, ran a progressive (but very unsuccessful) campaign for Congress in 2018, and Emmett is following in his footsteps, at least on the progressive part. His campaign has a very activist-y vibe, aligning with climate strikes and local progressive groups. He’d be good, and is the most progressive candidate. He also has a list of endorsements which indicate he is a serious candidate, despite having raised less than most of his opponents; various progressive groups, state Sen. David Watters, eleven state representatives, and some other miscellaneous elected officials are backing him.

State House

Do you know how many state representatives New Hampshire has, off the top of your head? Go on, guess. Did you assume it had to be something crazy high for us to say this, like 200 or something? It’s actually 400. Four hundred. New Hampshire has 1.36 million people, so that’s 3,400 people per district. And because this whole thing was designed by, we presume, some English duke in like 1705 hallucinating while recovering from a fever in India, they decided they couldn’t even leave it at that, so some districts elect like 14 representatives, but others only elect one. Oh, and then they have floterial districts, which is a whole other set of larger districts on top of the main set. So a person can live in two separate house districts and vote for 8 candidates from one and 3 from the other. Why? Because whoever designed this hates you personally, that’s why. People routinely win primaries with like 80 votes. 

We’re punting on this one, we’re sorry. But from now on you know that “Representative in the New Hampshire State House” means “someone in New Hampshire who’s on good terms with their neighbors.”

Rhode Island

RI-02 Westerly, Warwick, Cranston, parts of Providence

James Langevin (i) vs. Dylan Conley

Jim Langevin is a moderate Democrat representing a kinda-swingy-but-not-really district that covers most of western Rhode Island, as well as a chunk of Providence. He will easily win renomination against Dylan Conley, the son of state Sen. William Conley, who is running a bit to Langevin’s left; the margin here is worth watching, though. Rhode Island is all but guaranteed to lose a House seat after the 2020 Census, and Langevin will likely have to face fellow Rep. David Cicilline, who is much more progressive, if he wants to stay in the House. A weak showing now could bode poorly for his hopes in 2022.

For state legislative primaries, of which there are many, we’re going to defer to Eli Spencer Heyman, a leftist analyst in Providence. His analysis is formatted differently from our usual primary previews, but it’s good stuff. Worth noting is that quite a few Trump districts have contested Democratic primaries; Rhode Island Democrats regularly run way ahead of presidential numbers in state legislative races, and both houses of the state legislature have incredibly lopsided Democratic majorities, so the usual worries about the general election aren’t as present here. (Additionally, a lot of Rhode Island Democratic legislators are so conservative they really do not belong in the Democratic Party at all, and would be worth primarying no matter the district.)

State Senate primaries

SD 1

District description: Fully in Providence. Core neighborhoods: Smith Hill, Charles, and parts of Wanskuck, Elmhurst, and Valley.

Maryellen Goodwin, who was first elected to the Senate in 1986, faces Evan Lemoine, a CPA. While Goodwin is not progressive overall, she has sometimes been willing to work with progressives, serving as the Senate sponsor of then-Rep. Aaron Regunberg’s successful effort to pass paid sick leave. Lemoine is not endorsed by any of the groups I track, although he and Goodwin both received the Gun Sense distinction.

Alex Hoffman was originally running in this district as a member of the Co-Op. I am not sure what happened to his campaign, but he didn’t end up qualifying.

Lemoine will probably do better than 2018 candidate Michael Guzman, whom Goodwin defeated 3-1, but he is a heavy underdog in this race.

Rating: Safe Goodwin

SD 4

District description: Most of North Providence, plus a small part of Providence (parts of Wanskuck and Elmhurst).

Dominick Ruggerio [ruj-AIR-ee-oh], the Senate president, is being challenged by Lenny Cioe [SEE-oh], a registered nurse. Ruggerio was first elected to the Senate in 1984, making him its longest-serving member, and has served as its president since 2017, when M. Teresa Paiva-Weed resigned from the Senate to run the Hospital Association of Rhode Island. Cioe has the support of Renew New England and climate groups and is part of the Co-Op. Because of Ruggerio’s role in shepherding the Reproductive Privacy Act through the Senate, pro-choice groups have stayed out of the race, including the RI Democratic Women’s Caucus (RIDWC). Although Right to Life initially included Ruggerio in its list of endorsed candidates, he was quickly removed. Five of the six unions I track support Ruggerio, as does the Providence Chamber, and he is one of only three state legislative candidates in RI endorsed by the NRA. The RI Coalition Against Gun Violence (RICAGV) has nevertheless stayed out of the race, presumably because of Ruggerio’s power.

It is hard to imagine Ruggerio losing, but he very much could. He is at least a slight favorite, though. This is a mildly conservative, although still solidly blue, district; North Providence is much whiter than Providence, and Italian-Americans and Irish-Americans are a large chunk of its electorate.

WPRI’s Steph Machado interviewed both candidates at length for an Aug. 25 feature.

Rating: Lean Ruggerio

SD 5

District description: Fully in Providence. Core neighborhoods: Federal Hill, Olneyville, and parts of Mount Pleasant and the West End.

Sam Bell, the first-term incumbent, faces Providence City Council Majority Leader Jo-Ann Ryan, who is to his right. Ryan is first on the ballot (there is no party endorsee). In 2018, Bell was the only person to successfully primary an RI General Assembly incumbent on primarily ideological grounds from the left, defeating Paul Jabour with a plurality of the vote. Bell has established himself as someone willing to be the lone “no”, which could cut both ways. Bell boasts endorsements from many left-wing and pro-choice groups: Sunrise, Providence DSA (PvDSA), and Reclaim RI, as well as Planned Parenthood Votes! Rhode Island (PPVRI) and the RIDWC. Bell, a geologist, is the only state-level Rhode Island candidate with the support of 3.14 Action, a national group that works to elect scientists to office. Ryan has the support of several unions and the RI chapter of the National Organization for Women (RI NOW).

Bell is a smart politician, and he argues convincingly that his frequent dissent doesn’t stop him from delivering for his constituents. His core issues are things like reversing the Medicaid cuts that have built up year over year (with former Sen. Jabour’s support). His pitch is strong, but the big question is whether enough voters hear it. Ryan’s argument is that she knows how to get things done and will deliver needed support for the community. Even if it’s not true that Bell doesn’t deliver, it’s an easy argument to make (and to believe).

WPRI’s Steph Machado interviewed both candidates at length for an Aug. 20 feature.

Rating: Lean Bell

SD 6

District description: Fully in Providence. Core neighborhoods: Downtown, Upper South Providence, Lower South Providence, and parts of Washington Park and Mount Hope.

Longtime Sen. Harold Metts is being challenged by Tiara Mack, a youth and reproductive justice organizer. Metts is a vocal opponent of abortion rights and LGBTQ rights, citing his religion. He was the only RI state legislator to outright vote no on banning conversion therapy, for example. However, he is left-wing on several issues, even endorsing Aaron Regunberg in 2018, and he is the only Black state senator. Mack, who is also Black, is left-wing across the board, and she identifies as queer. It’s important that she is both of those things: Metts portrays himself as someone who believes in racial justice, and while it’s true he has done things that have advanced the cause, it’s not true racial justice if queer Black people are left behind. Metts was first elected to the Senate in 2002, and previously served in the House from 1985 to 1998. He has been the only Black state senator for his entire tenure in the Senate.

Metts’s lack of spending or campaign activity until mid-August suggests he didn’t take Mack seriously until very recently. He’s had relatively poor showings in his last two primaries against challengers who weren’t nearly as well-funded. Those challengers were all Hispanic, whereas Mack is Black, which probably changes the dynamic – I assume in Mack’s favor, but I’m not certain of that. (21% of the CVAP is Black non-Hispanic, higher than any other RI Senate district, but a plurality of the CVAP, 38%, is Hispanic. However, a solid majority of the district’s Hispanic population is Dominican-American; the vast majority of Dominican Americans are both Black and Hispanic.)

Mack is backed by pro-choice groups and climate groups (except Climate Action RI, which stayed out), as well as a couple of the left-wing non-issue-based groups, and is a member of the Co-Op. She is also one of a handful of candidates endorsed by Carpenters Local Union 330 – all others, at least in RI, are incumbents – and she has been endorsed by the new BLM RI PAC and the national LGBTQ Victory Fund. Metts is backed by Right to Life, the Chamber, and five of the six unions I track in my spreadsheet, with the UAW not backing either candidate.

Mack is the strongest challenger Metts has had, and (as usual) he has only ramped up his campaign in the closing days. But there are still lots of voters, especially Black voters, in the district who trust Metts to fight for them on issues like housing and environmental justice. Mack does not necessarily need to win a majority of Black voters to win the district, but she needs to do reasonably well with them. She certainly has the potential to.

Rating: Tilt Mack

SD 9

District description: Almost all of the town of West Warwick.

Adam Satchell, a fourth-term senator who is reasonably progressive, is retiring; he says he wants to spend more time with his family and focus on his “real” job (teaching). Geoffrey Rousselle, who owns a package store and served as West Warwick town council president from 2000 to 2002, and John Burke, who worked in URI’s IT department for 37 years, are running in the Democratic primary to succeed him. The major left-wing and pro-choice groups have stayed out of this race, but those progressive groups that have endorsed support Rousselle, except for RICAGV, which supports Burke. Right to Life has issued a soft endorsement of Burke, indicating that his opponent is pro-choice, which Rousselle’s website confirms. NEARI and the RI AFL-CIO have stayed out of the race as far as I am aware, while 1199 SEIU and RI BCTR have endorsed Rousselle.

The Kent County Daily Times spoke to both Rousselle and Burke ahead of the primary.

Rating: Tilt Rousselle

SD 15

District description: Parts of western Pawtucket (Fairlawn, Oakhill, southern Woodlawn, and parts of Quality Hill and Downtown) and the easternmost reaches of North Providence.

Donna Nesselbush, a staunch progressive first elected in 2010, is retiring to “spend more time with family and pursue other endeavors.” Three Democrats are running to replace her. Herbert P. Weiss, an economic and cultural affairs officer for the City of Pawtucket, is endorsed by the district committee, which he chairs; Robert H. Morris Jr. is known for his activity in local sports; and Meghan E. Kallman, a Pawtucket City Council member with a long resume of progressive activism, is endorsed by Reclaim RI, almost every issue-based left-wing group, and four of the six unions I track (the other two have not weighed in). She is also, as far as I can tell, the only non-Black candidate endorsed by the BLM RI PAC. This convergence is rather unusual, and her union support is probably explained in significant part by Kallman’s role as a leader in UMass Boston’s Faculty-Staff Union. Conservatives are not even unified here, with Right to Life issuing a soft endorsement of Morris, while police unions support Weiss. Kallman will probably win, and it might not be close.

The Valley Breeze ran an overview of the race last week, adding to its past coverage.

Rating: Likely Kallman

SD 16

District description: All of Central Falls, plus the remainder of Pawtucket’s Woodlawn and Downtown neighborhoods.

Elizabeth Crowley faces two challengers, Central Falls City Council member Jonathon Acosta and Leslie Estrada. Acosta, a Co-Op member, has the support of Renew NE, YDRI, the RIDWC, and multiple environmental groups; Estrada does not have any endorsements that I am aware of; Crowley has the support of the Chamber and of five of the six tracked unions, with the UAW again sitting the race out.

In 2018, this district achieved the notable distinction of being Dan McKee’s best district in terms of his vote share, even as he received more raw votes in every other Senate district. The low turnout was because almost half of its residents are either children or adult noncitizens. Like Central Falls, the district is majority-Hispanic, but its CVAP is merely plurality-Hispanic. Turnout here will probably remain low compared to other districts. An important question, though, is whether eligible Hispanic voters will turn out at the same rate as other eligible voters. It is also worth noting that Central Falls has a high-profile mayoral race, which may help drive turnout.

Rating: Tilt Acosta

SD 18

District description: A bizarrely shaped chunk of East Providence, plus parts of the Quality Hill and Darlington neighborhoods of Pawtucket.

Finance Committee chair William Conley Jr., is being challenged by former healthcare professional Cynthia Mendes. Mendes, a Co-Op member, has the support of climate groups onaand Renew NE as well as the RIDWC, while the RICAGV and five of six tracked unions back Conley. The other pro-choice groups are staying out of the race (Conley voted for the RPA).

The Valley Breeze covered this race on Aug. 18 and again on Sept. 1. EcoRI News has mentioned it as an important race for environmental issues in RI. Conley’s advocacy for the proposed Metacomet Golf Club redevelopment in his role as an attorney for Marshall Properties has received heavy scrutiny, arguably becoming the defining issue of the race. The proposed club is outside of the district, and while Conley doesn’t have a true conflict of interest unless there is proposed legislative action on the matter, it could still be an abuse of his power. McKee did fairly well here, beating Regunberg 53.1% to 46.9% (a 6.2% margin). Conley’s institutional support is definitely less broad than Regunberg’s was, but she has led in individual contributions throughout the race, and it was only in the final reporting period that Conley outspent her 6 to 1; previously he was not even spending twice as much as her. With the golf club issue’s prominence, that may have been too late.

Rating: Tilt Mendes, but I may revise this before polls close.

SD 22

District description: The town of Smithfield, plus small pieces of the towns of North Providence and Johnston.

In a rematch of 2018, incumbent Stephen Archambault faces Melanie DuPont. PPVRI is avoiding this race, as Archambault voted for the RPA once changes were made, but RI NOW and the RI Democratic Women’s Caucus have both endorsed DuPont, who is part of the RIDWC’s leadership. Archambault, who was first elected in 2012, has the support of only two groups I track, RI RtL and the NRA; the only tracked union that has weighed in is the UAW, which backs DuPont. Climate groups have also thrown their weight behind her.

This was a good district for Dan McKee, giving him 56.6% of the vote (a 13.2% margin). If Archambault had institutional support from any major faction of the RIDP, I would feel more comfortable calling him the favorite. But he doesn’t. My sense, bolstered by his fundraising and spending advantage and his endorsement from Jack Reed, is still that he’ll win, but I may revise this before the polls close.

The Johnston Sun Risereported on Archambault’s campaign on July 31 and published an article about DuPont on July 10. (An article about Republican Paul Santucci came out on Aug. 21.)

Rating: Lean Archambault

SD 29

District description: Eastern Warwick, except for the border with Cranston. Includes T.F. Green Airport.

Attorney Michael McCaffrey, the Senate Majority Leader, faces Jennifer Rourke, an activist and mother, for the second consecutive time. McCaffrey has served in the Senate since his 1994 election, and was chosen as Majority Leader in 2017. In 2018, McCaffrey easily turned away Rourke’s challenge, but this time around I suspect she is a more serious threat. Rourke reported a massive fundraising haul (for Rhode Island) for Q2 and has continued to outraise McCaffrey since. Although his huge cash reserves have enabled him to outspend her, Rourke’s spending has not followed the 2018 pattern, where she spent almost nothing in the final weeks of the primary.

Dan McKee won this district narrowly, 51% to 49%, a hair worse than his statewide performance. McCaffrey is backed by the Chamber and by all unions I track except the UAW, as well as RI RtL and the Chamber, while most climate groups, some left-wing groups, the RIDWC, and two groups focused on endorsing Black candidates (BLM RI PAC and The Collective) back Rourke. The other major pro-choice groups have stayed out of the race, citing the fact that the RPA passed, even though McCaffrey did absolutely nothing to help it along.

The Warwick Beacon covered this race in an Aug. 27 article.

Rating: Pure Tossup; I do not anticipate issuing a Tilt rating here before polls close.

SD 30

District description: Southern Warwick.

Attorney Mark McKenney faces left-wing activist Jeanine Calkin, a Co-Op member, in a rematch of the 2018 election. In 2016, Calkin worked on Bernie Sanders’s successful RI campaign and went on to run for State Senate, ousting Sen. William Waleska. Waleska later passed away, and McKenney, a friend of his, ran against Calkin in 2018. Calkin had broad support from left-wing and progressive issue groups as well as NEARI, while McKenney had the party endorsement and the support of the Warwick Teachers’ Union and (although I was not aware of this at the time) the RI AFL-CIO. To my surprise, McKenney won, and it wasn’t all that close.

McKenney is now the incumbent, but Calkin’s allies flipped the district committee in 2018, so she now has the party endorsement. PPVRI is supporting McKenney, RI NOW is staying out, and the RIDWC is backing Calkin (in 2018, all three backed Calkin). The main difference here is not in nominal positions on issues; both candidates say they support progressive measures, and indeed McKenney was one of the key votes for the RPA. But McKenney’s approach is to support Senate leadership and hope his loyalty is rewarded, whereas Calkin’s approach is more activist, for better or for worse. (She is also far more in touch with activists on the ground – I mean this literally, in that she talks to them.)

Environmental and left-wing groups support Calkin, while the RICAGV and most unions back McKenney (the UAW endorsed Calkin, and 1199 SEIU is staying out). Despite the district committee’s flip to supporting Calkin, McKenney has more institutional support this time around, not less. This was Dan McKee’s best Senate district in Warwick, giving him 52.4% of the vote. If Calkin wins back her seat, the left is probably having a good night.

The Warwick Beacon covered this race in an Aug. 27 article. Ian Donnis covered the race for The Public’s Radio, formerly known as RIPR.

Rating: Lean McKenney

SD 31

District description: The rest of Warwick – that is, western Warwick, plus the city’s border with Cranston – and the Adult Correctional Institute, which is in Cranston.

Erin Lynch Prata, who was first elected in 2008, is vacating this seat to seek a controversial appointment to the state Supreme Court. The Democratic primary here is a four-way race. In ballot order: Steve Merolla, the Warwick City Council’s president, is endorsed by the state party. (Note that Merolla is not a citywide elected official – each member of the council represents one of Warwick’s nine wards, and they elect a president from among their membership.) Kendra Anderson, an environmental educator and ESL teacher who also cofounded CARI, is a Co-Op member supported by many progressive organizations; she announced her campaign well before it was clear that Lynch Prata would retire. Brian S. Dunckley, the founder of an “independent, small” wealth management company, is supported by police and corrections unions. Michael F. Mita, a real estate broker, has the backing of RI Right to Life and Senate President Ruggerio.

The Warwick Beacon published an Aug. 13 article on this race, and reported the same day on Merolla’s use of campaign funds to pay for ads for his private law firm, after a tip from Michael Carreiro, the president of Warwick Professional Fire Fighters, IAFF Local 2748. Dunckley has meanwhile been accused by Merolla of ethics violations for not listing his wife’s role as a Warwick probate court judge on financial disclosures (he amended the form the day after Merolla pointed out the omission).

In the most recent fundraising period, Anderson raised the most from individuals, but she has been heavily outspent by the other three candidates since July 1, and Dunckley and Mita outraised her in the penultimate period. Yet the establishment vote is badly fractured, and none of the labor unions I track have endorsed in this race. Anderson has also probably benefited from the sparring between the establishment candidates. Aaron Regunberg won narrowly here in 2018 (50.9% to 49.1%).

Rating: Anderson favored to some degree

SD 36

District description: Most of North Kingstown, plus northern Narragansett.

Sen. James Sheehan, first elected in 2000, is retiring to spend more time with his family. His 2018 primary opponent, therapist Alana DiMario, is running again. She is now endorsed by the district committee (which Sheehan chairs) and a wide range of unions, as well as many of the left-wing and pro-choice groups that supported her last time or have sprung up since. DiMario is, notably, the only candidate endorsed by Sunrise RI outside of the Co-Op and Reclaim slates. Her opponent is Ellen Waxman. DiMario received a respectable 42% of the vote in 2018 when she was challenging the party-endorsed incumbent (Sheehan). With Sheehan retiring and the party and unions now supporting DiMario, she should be a shoo-in.

Rating: Safe DiMario

SD 37

District description: Most of South Kingstown, plus New Shoreham (Block Island).

V. Susan Sosnowski, first elected in 1996, faces local activist Maggie Kain. Sosnowski, a farmer by trade, is more mainstream than many of the incumbents facing primaries; most notably, she is pro-choice, serving as a leading sponsor of the Reproductive Health Care Act (RHCA), the original bill to codify Roe. However, her environmental positions are unimpressive to say the least – and she is the chair of the Environment Committee, so that matters quite a bit. In addition to having the backing of all tracked climate groups and several left-wing groups, Kain is supported by RICAGV and is a member of the Co-Op. (Clean Water RI, which supports Sosnowski, is not a climate group.) Sosnowski has endorsements from two pro-choice groups, five of six tracked unions, and the Chamber.

Aaron Regunberg received 59.9% of the vote here in the 2018 LG primary, making it his second-best SD, behind SD 3 on Providence’s East Side. It is a coastal district, giving climate change particular resonance here; indeed, Washington County is home to the only Sunrise hub in the state outside of Providence (the hub is known as South County, after the county’s nickname.)

This race is worth paying attention to. Kain has outraised Sosnowski consistently in individual contributions, and they have both led in spending at various points, with Sosnowski having a 3-to-1 spending edge in the last two-thirds of August. Kain clearly has a lot going for her, but Sosnowski is no pushover.

Rating: Pure Tossup; I will try to issue a Tilt rating before the polls close.