Super Tuesday Downballot Primary Preview

And so it begins

Five states will be holding Congressional, legislative, and local primaries today along side their presidential contest. Here’s what to watch out for.

Alabama

Nothing really

Arkansas

SD-25

Stephanie Flowers, perhaps the most progressive member of the Arkansas State Senate, best known for her impassioned plea against Stand Your Ground laws, is being challenged by ex state rep and current cop Efrem Elliott in a rematch of 2012. Flowers, thankfully, should be favored.

California

CA-12

Speaker Nancy Pelosi is facing a challenge from the left from local activist Shahid Buttar, who has previously run for the seat in 2018. Like in 2018, the question isn’t whether Pelosi will make the runoff, it’s whether a Democrat or a Republican will make the second spot. Unlike in 2018, where there were (besides Pelosi) three Democrats and one Republican trying to make the runoff, there are now two of each. Additionally, Buttar has raised nearly $500,000 this time around and has a variety of local progressve groups and figures backing him. He’ll probably make it to the second round, but he’ll need to get a strong vote share if this race won’t be anything but a blowout in November

CA-16

Unlike most of the California races, this race will be decided in the primary. We’ve covered this race a lot. In the state legislature, Jim Costa is responsible for killing rent control and writing the state’s three strikes law. In Congress, he’s been a committed Blue Dog with a terrible voting record in general, and one of the worst environmental records of any Democrat. Here’s just a taste 

His record of supporting the oil industry is spotless. He opposes cap and trade, supports ANWR drilling, fracking,pipelines, offshore drilling, and deep water drilling. He was one of the voices encouraging deep water drilling just months after the environmental disaster of Deepwater Horizon. He’s even voted for more obscure ways to help Big Oil make money, like lease squatting on federal lands and allowing oil cartelsimmunity from anti-trust lawsuits. That one was particularly amazing considering it passed 345-72. Most Republicans were to his left on that one. It will come as no surprise, then, that he takes roughly $100,000 every campaign cycle from the industry, the 39th highest for any member of the House, and the second highest for a Democrat, behind only our old friend Henry Cuellar.

He sticks up for the energy industry in other ways of course. Mine Safety regulations to prevent another tragedy like the 2010 Upper Big Branch Mine disaster? Who needs them? Should the government be allowed to regulate greenhouse gasses? Of course not, let ‘em flow. Air and water quality standards can be loosened, right? We don’t really need to worry about coal ash. You get the picture. The League of Conservation Voters awards him a 49% lifetime legislative score, making him one of three Democrats to vote against the environment more than with it. The other two are Collin Peterson and Henry Cuellar. As I’m sure you’ve heard repeatedly from me and Nick, those guys don’t count. They are the worst at everything and being better than them is not an accomplishment.

Progressives in the Central Valley and across the state are more than fed up with him, and Esmeralda Soria, a Fresno City Councilor, has been the beneficiary of that anger, racking up endorsement after endorsement in her progressive campaign. The contest has turned sharply negative in recent weeks, with Costa attacking her personal life and her choice to endorse him in the 2018 general election. This race could be very close, so remember that late ballots lean young, and will probably be good for Soria.

CA-18

Saratoga City Councilman Rishi Kumar’s challenge to Anna Eshoo was at least intriguing in the beginning, but then came his vocal support for psuedo-fascist Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, his hit-and-run, and his skeevy campaigning. Kumar has recently loaned his campaign $70,000, likely in order to make it to the runoff. Because there are two Republicans competing for the 20-25% of vote that will be Republican, Kumar will probably succeed. Like CA-12, this is a race where the margins are what you need to watch.

CA-20

Adam Bolaños Scow, the California Director of Food and Water Watch, launched his campaign for this Monterey Bay-area district in October. Mostly due to his low-key campaigning style of doing local events and getting local endorsements, there hasn’t been a lot of big news for us to cover, which is a shame, because Scow is a great, environmentally-focused progressive. Based on his late start and how Democratic the district is, we’re guessing he’s trying to win in November, not March, so you really just need to watch to see if he makes the runoff.

CA-28

#Resistance hero Adam Schiff is facing a challenge from the left in the form of drag performer Maebe A. Girl. The question is whether Maebe make it into the runoff. The answer? Maybe. There are two Republicans fighting over 20% or so of the vote, so she’ll need at least 10% of the vote, which will be difficult as one of 4 Democratic challengers to a well-known incumbent.

CA-53

Another safely Democratic seat, another moderate leading, and another progressive who’s just trying to make it into the runoff. In this case the moderate is billionaire heiress Sara Jacobs who jumped into this district after losing CA-49 last cycle. She’s dumped millions into her race (again) and is aided by her parents funding a Super PAC for her. Her main progressive opponent is San Diego City Councilor Georgette Gómez, who—despite being a somewhat establishment figure—has been endorsed across-the-board by progressives nationally: Bernie Sanders, AOC, the CPC, Justice Democrats. Gómez is also the overwhelming favorite of labor as well. 

Unfortunately, she doesn’t start with the name recognition of Sara Jacobs, nor could she afford to immediately go on the air with hundreds of thousands in ads, which matters considering the seat only became open in September and voting began in February. Gómez is currently fighting not to win, but to make it into the runoff against either of the Republican candidates and a slew of Democrats, including veteran Janessa Goldbeck, activist Jose Caballero, and ex-Obama administration policy advisor Joaquín Vázquez. Jacobs has been actively attempting to boost one of the Republicans, Chris Stoddard, into the runoff, effectively sealing her victory in this safe blue seat. To that end, she’s been running “attack ads” against him, calling him too pro-Trump. And she may or may not be behind a round of mysterious mailers also designed with that purpose in mind.

SD-07

A quick refresher on incumbent Steve Glazer:

SD-07 is a deeply blue Bay Area district, voting 61-37 for Obama and 64-30 for Clinton. However, it’s represented by the most unreliable, pain-in-the-ass ConservaDem flake in the state. Steve Glazer first won a low turnout special election in 2015, because Republicans coalesced around him instead of the liberal Democratic state representatives that were seen as the frontrunners. The lone Republican in that race even dropped out to endorse him. He was an anti-union centrist then, and he’s only gotten worse since. He’s opposed many important progressive bills, and most egregiously, was the lone Democratic opponent of the recent gas tax increase in the state senate, forcing vulnerable senator Josh Newman to take the risky vote. Newman got booted in a recall election because of the gas tax, meaning Glazer’s antics cost Democrats a seat in the state senate for nearly 3 years. The icing on top of that particular knifing of his party? Glazer’s district supported the gas tax and Newman’s didn’t.

He is being challenged by healthcare provider and 2016 Bernie Sanders DNC delegate Marisol Rubio, who is running on a platform of environmental protection, large investments in higher education and housing, and the expansion of BART; Steve Glazer has famously prioritized fighting BART unions over just about everything else. Rubio has exhaustive union backing, likely due to Glazer's open hostility to organized labor in general. Building trades locals are the kinds of temperamentally conservative, more establishment friendly unions that generally back incumbents by default, but Rubio has dozens of them on her side. One of the few she didn’t get? The cop unions, whose absence is practically an endorsement by itself. In this blue Bay Area seat, only one Republican will be on the ballot. 

In 2016, the lone Republican got 27% of the vote, so while both Glazer and Rubio are hoping to do better than 50% of the vote or so and push their opponent below the Republican, the likeliest outcome is an all-Dem general election.

Los Angeles DA

Jackie Lacey is the incumbent DA of Los Angeles County, and she’s really, really bad. She’s shockingly punitive, and there are massive racial disparities in her office’s prosecution rates. (In other words, she’s a pretty run-of-the-mill prosecutor.) That (along with poor relationships with, well, everyone in Los Angeles) earned her a richly deserved challenge...from the San Francisco DA, George Gascón. Weird, we know. Gascón, a fairly reform-oriented prosecutor, resigned from his post in San Francisco (allowing decarceral socialist Chesa Boudin to replace him, which was pretty great) to move to LA and take on Jackie Lacey. Gascón isn’t a stranger to LA; he grew up there, and was a beat cop there decades ago. And despite being one of the most blatant cases of carpetbagging we can remember, he might win.

That’s a good thing. Los Angeles County is the most populated county in the nation; no district attorney in the country has power over as many lives as the LA County DA does. Gascón’s challenge has earned the support of...basically everyone in Los Angekes Democratic politics, including the literal Democratic Party, and even Kamala Harris, whose record as San Francisco DA (she was Gascón’s immediate predecessor) was...pretty Laceyesque. It’s proof of how thoroughly criminal justice reformers have changed American politics in just the past few years. Gascón’s victory, despite the incredibly weird circumstances of his candidacy, would be a monumental and (in some cases literally) lifesaving victory for tens or even hundreds of thousands in LA County.

Also, Jackie Lacey’s husband pointed a gun at Black Lives Matter protesters yesterday morning and threatened to shoot them because they showed up at his doorstep. In a press conference, Lacey confirmed it was indeed her husband who had done that...and said “he meant no one any harm.” (In the video of the confrontation posted by an activist who bravely recorded with a gun pointed at her chest, his finger is clearly on the trigger, and also he’s plainly threatening to fucking shoot them.) What the fuck?

If Gascón or Lacey gets a majority of the vote tomorrow, they win (which is not how it works in California’s federal and state races.) If they don’t—which is possible due to the presence of another reformist Lacey challenger, public defender Rachel Rossi—the contest proceeds to November. Gascón is the best chance to beat Lacey today, but the presence of Rossi, whose policies are a little more ambitious than Gascón’s, will at worst prolong a Gascón-Lacey race and at best give us the improbable dream scenario of a runoff between Gascón and Rossi.

North Carolina

NC-02

Finally we’re onto non-California races and we can stop talking about the top 2. Besides a couple of minor candidates, NC-02 is a straightforward two-way primary between ex-state house rep. and 2016 US Senate nominee Deborah Ross, and Wake County school board member Monika Johnson-Hostler. The ideological divide in this race isn’t particularly broad, as Deborah Ross was generally a pretty solid liberal in the state house and as a Senate candidate. The one place where they really differ is Medicare for All, which Johnson-Hostler supports and Ross opposes. Ross, who has name recognition and a lot of money is probably going to win this one, and it will probably not be close. Still, Johnson-Hostler, who started her campaign months earlier, has a couple union endorsements, and is backed by the Congressional Black Caucus, so she can’t be entirely counted out.

NC-06

This race provides a much starker contrast than NC-02. Kathy Manning, who was the Democratic nominee in 2018 for that cycle’s version of the seat—NC-13, a Republican-leaning seat that was redistricted in 2019 into the blue seat she’s running for now—is a Blue Dog in the literal sense that she pledged to join the caucus that year. She hasn’t been endorsed by them this time around, but she’s still the “business-oriented moderate” she said she was in 2020. Manning’s name recognition and money, almost $900,000 of it, making her a clear favorite in the race.

The progressive in the race is former Alma Adams staffer Rhonda Foxx, who is running on a platform that includes Medicare for All, a Green New Deal, and cutting ICE funding (we prefer just scrapping it all together of course, but it’s better than Manning’s nothing). Foxx has the backing of Ayanna Pressley and Kirsten Gillibrand, but due to the fast campaign cycle (less than three months) she might not have had the ability to introduce herself to enough voters. Also in the mix are moderate state Rep. Derwin Montgomery and ex state Rep. Ed Haines, both of Winston-Salem.

Texas

TX-28

If you’ve read our newsletter...at all, and even if you haven’t, you probably know the basic contours of this race. Progressive immigration attorney Jessica Cisneros was recruited by Justice Democrats to challenge conservative, Bush-endorsing, pro-NRA, pro-oil, anti-abortion Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar in her hometown of Laredo, and it quickly became the most high-profile House primary of the cycle. Cisneros steadily consolidated support from organized labor, national progressives, pro-choice groups, and prominentprogressivepoliticians. But even this late in the race, there are new developments: yesterday, Cisneros announced she raised $2 million since entering the race—which means she raised more than a million dollars in just the first two months (and two days) of 2020. HuffPost’s Daniel Marans also has a deeper dive into the race that’s worth your time, but if there’s one thing you take away from it, it should be the revelation that Cuellar’s brother Martin, the sheriff of Laredo’s Webb County, forced employees to campaign for the Cuellar family and retaliated against those who weren’t seen as sufficiently supportive:

“Four former employees of the Webb County Sheriff’s Office, who asked for anonymity to protect against professional retaliation, told HuffPost that Martin Cuellar had forced them to spend their off-hours and compensatory time to campaign for candidates on the Cuellar slate, including the congressman. One ex-employee recounted the sheriff demoting him from street duty to jail duty after he showed up late for a canvassing shift after spending all night on a federal immigration enforcement detail.”

That is...probably illegal. And we know the Cuellar campaign treats legality with the utmost concern, since campaign manager Colin Strother threatened to sue Nick for slander and libel because he mentioned that a woman is suing Cuellar for pregnancy discrimination. (We are not lawyers, but we are quite confident that Colin would be laughed out of court, because stating one’s honest opinion supported by evidence is not libel, and slander refers to spoken statements.)

SD-27

Texas state Sen. Eddie Lucio Jr. (not to be confused with his son, state Rep. Eddie Lucio III) is, like Cuellar, the kind of conservative Democrat that’s come to define South Texas politics. The Cuellar comparison may even be unfair to Cuellar, as he’s at least not made a mission out of supporting every anti-LGBTQ and anti-choice bill he can. It’s earned him two challengers: state Board of Education member Ruben Cortez (who has the endorsement of the state teachers’ union) and attorney Sara Stapleton Barrera. We probably want a runoff here, because we’re not sure either challenger can make it to 50% with a split field; however, maybe we’ll be surprised.

HD-38

Eddie Lucio III, the son of Eddie Lucio Jr, is not the social arch-conservative his father is, but is still a dynasty politician whose record is only notable for the wrong reasons, such as being the author of the bill that put police officers in schools or having it out for gender studies at public schools. He also had a job at an immigrant detention facility that was somehow both immoral and potentially corrupt until recently. He has a challenge from Erin Gamez, a local lawyer.

HD-76

This open El Paso seat is a race between extremely pro-developer City Councilor Claudia Ordaz Perez and former legislative staffer Elisa Tamayo. Tamayo, a favorite of labor, is the preferred choice over Ordaz Perez, the subject of endless ethics complaints.

Harris County DA

Harris County DA Kim Ogg ran in 2016 as a progressive reformer, but she’s since turned out to be...anything but that. Audia Jones, a former prosecutor, has the support of Bernie Sanders, Houston DSA, and local activists; the presence of other, minor candidates could mean a runoff between Jones and Ogg if neither one clears 50%.

Travis County DA

Travis County DA Margaret Moore has received a lot of heat for mishandling sexual assault cases, and that makes this race in the most prototypically liberal corner of Texas all the more fertile ground for a reform-oriented challenge. José Garza, the executive director of the Workers Defense Project, aims to end cash bail, refuse to seek the death penalty, and end prosecution of drug possession charges. He’s been endorsed by Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Austin DSA, the Working Families Party, and several local unions; a third candidate, Erin Martinson, could force a runoff if neither Garza nor Moore clears 50%.

Webb County Sheriff, Webb County Tax Assessor

These two are interesting only because they involve siblings of Henry Cuellar. Webb County Sheriff Martin Cuellar and Webb County Tax Assessor Rosie Cuellar face challenges from Ponce Coy Treviño and former Webb County Tax Assessor Patricia Barrera, respectively; the three Cuellar siblings have tied their campaigns closely together (and abused their offices to get votes for the family.) Like TX-28, these races are a test of the Cuellar dynasty’s power.