Primary School 7/16
with a NJ-10 preview
NJ-10 (Newark, Jersey City, the Oranges, Union)
Derek Armstead vs. Brittany Claybrooks vs. John J. Flora vs. Darryl Godfrey vs. Alberta Gordon vs. Eugene Mazo vs. LaMonica McIver vs. Shana Melius vs. Sheila Montague vs. Debra Salters
Normally, special elections are expensive and heated, but the July 16 special election to represent a chunk of urban and suburban North Jersey has turned out to be the opposite. While Newark City Council President LaMonica McIver has credible opposition from a handful of local politicians, this seat is clearly hers to lose, and nobody seems too interested in trying to change that. McIver’s fundraising has been poor (less than six figures as of her pre-primary report), and yet she’s the fundraising leader. McIver has unified establishment support in Essex County, which makes up a slim majority of this seat, and near-unified establishment support in Union County, which makes up another third of the seat (Linden Mayor Derek Armstead has some loyalists in his home base and nearly won party support in Union County.) For a frontrunner, McIver’s campaign is a low-key affair, but she can afford that.
Only Hudson County’s machine seems interested in a non-McIver candidate. Craig Guy, the Hudson County Executive and the newly-christened Hudson County Democratic Organization chairman, endorsed Hudson County Commissioner Jerry Walker, who hasn’t even filed a report with the FEC, and headlined a fundraiser for Walker’s campaign. Guy isn’t alone; other Hudson County pols such as Assembs. Barbara McCann Stamato and William Sampson are also backing Walker. The statewide Democratic establishment is also fully behind McIver, up to and including Gov. Phil Murphy. National groups have mostly sat this race out, evidently seeing low stakes; the exception is the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC, which has endorsed McIver. (Though McIver is the establishment pick here, that’s not a shock; McIver is closely aligned with progressive Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, and the late Rep. Donald Payne Jr. was a CPC member himself.)
Most candidates are running entirely outside the machine apparatus, but only two of those candidates are running campaigns that could conceivably leave a mark on July 16. Former East Orange Councilwoman Brittany Claybrooks, the North Jersey political director for Andy Kim’s Senate campaign, is strapped for cash but has some connections and a better claim to the outsider lane than any other candidate running; former state economic development official Darryl Godfrey, meanwhile, is just another wealthy, politically-connected self-funder, and he’s only self-funded about $50K in addition to some okay fundraising—not enough to break through in the ultra-expensive NYC media market.
The July 16 special primary is technically only for the remainder of Payne’s term, which will be filled in a September 18 special election. However, because Payne died after the filing deadline had passed for the regular primary, he won the nomination for the full term posthumously, meaning Democrats have to pick a replacement nominee for the full two-year term in a special convention; the convention is scheduled for July 18, and McIver is expected to win—possibly even if she loses the special primary, which would be a brazenly undemocratic move (so, par for the course in New Jersey.) Since she’s such an overwhelming favorite, it’s likely to be a moot point at the convention.
Outside $ Tracker
AZ-03
$73K of digital ads, $38K of mailers and $3K of texts supporting Raquel Terán from the Working Families Party
$38K of mailers opposing Yassamin Ansari from the Working Families Party
$105K of digital ads and $125K of mailers supporting Raquel Terán from the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC
$70K in radio ads and $58K in canvassing and phone banking supporting Raquel Terán from the National Education Association Advocacy Fund
$87K in ads supporting Raquel Terán and opposing Yassamin Ansari from ProgressNow AZ
$43K in mailers supporting Raquel Terán from Planned Parenthood Votes
$73K in canvassing supporting Raquel Terán from Votar es Poder PAC
$2400 in digital ads and $9000 in lawn signs supporting Yassamin Ansari from the Professional Firefighters of Arizona
$91K in digital ads supporting Yassamin Ansari from Democratic Majority for Israel
$193K in mailers, in 5 batches, supporting Yassamin Ansari from Save America Fund
MN-05
$193K of mailers, in 5 batches, supporting Ilhan Omar from the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party
MO-01
$363K of TV ads supporting Cori Bush and attacking Wesley Bell, $55K of mailers attacking Bell, and $50K of digital ads both supporting Bush and attacking Bell, all from Justice Democrats
$88K of “digital & tv ads”, $50K of canvassing, $10K of texts, and $3400 of phone banking for Cori Bush from the Working Families Party
$61K of mailers for Cori Bush from National Nurses United
$27K in digital ads supporting Wesley Bell from the National Association of Realtors PAC
$214K in digital ads and $246K in TV ads supporting Wesley Bell from Democratic Majority for Israel
$888K in ads, $158K in mailers, and $52K in phone banking supporting Wesley Bell from United Democracy Project (AIPAC)
$1.54M in ads, $307K in mailers, and $42K in phone banking opposing Cori Bush from United Democracy Project (AIPAC)
WA-06
$144K of mailers supporting Emily Randall from Equality PAC
Results
You’re probably aware that since we last wrote, Rep. Jamaal Bowman went down in the face of a primary challenge from Westchester County Executive George Latimer, marking the first defeat for an incumbent Squad member in a primary. Bowman was ultimately doomed by redistricting, which after the 2020 Census cost him most of his Bronx base and replaced it with wealthier suburbs, but the tens of millions spent by and donated through AIPAC (and some other PACs, but mostly AIPAC) on Latimer’s behalf certainly didn’t help. Colorado progressives also had a rough primary season, losing state Reps. Tim Hernández and Elisabeth Epps to business-backed challengers Cecelia Espenoza and Sean Camacho. Meanwhile, New York progressives held their own outside of the Bowman race, with every member of the state legislature’s DSA-anchored progressive bloc cruising to renomination; additionally, progressive Gabriella Romero picked up an open Assembly seat representing the city of Albany, DSA’s Claire Valdez ousted disgraced Queens Assemb. Juan Ardila, and conservative, anti-reform Albany County DA David Soares was trounced by WFP-backed defense attorney Lee Kindlon.
News
MO-01
St. Louis Mayor Tish Jones endorsed Cori Bush for reelection. While Jones was the progressive choice for mayor, she also entered politics through her politically connected father, was on good terms with the old political establishment for many years, and has had some friction with other progressives in city government in the past. Many saw her public turn against then-Circuit Attorney Kim Gardner as what pushed the progressive prosecutor to resign amidst pressure from the state government. While we had expected Jones to support Bush over St. Louis County Prosecutor Wesley Bell, it wouldn’t be crazy to imagine the reverse, and the countdown she gave to announcing who she would be endorsing in the election raised some eyebrows. Though St. Louis only contributes around 40-45% of the Democratic primary vote in the district, Jones is one of the biggest Democratic names in the region. She joins House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and other caucus leadership in endorsing Bush.
Democratic Majority for Israel has produced polling from the firm owned by its president, Mark Mellman, which shows Bush trailing Bell by 1%, 42%-43%, with 11% undecided, which they claim is down from a 45%-29% lead she held in a January poll DMFI commissioned but didn’t release until now. No crosstabs were given.
NYC Mayor, Comptroller
After months of behind-the-scenes maneuvering, politicians in New York City are finally talking more about their plans for 2025, and the result could be an enormous game of musical chairs.
Mayor
In:
Eric Adams: Adams might be polling poorly (a recent poll found his favorability among Democrats underwater 29%-64%) but he’s given no indication he’s planning on anything other than trying to win reelection.
Scott Stringer: Ex-Comptroller Stringer became the default non-Adams choice early in the 2021 election until an allegation of sexual harassment derailed his campaign. While subsequent reporting poked enormous holes in the initial accuser’s account - so much so that he is currently suing accuser Jean Kim for defamation - no one, including Stringer, has pushed back on the second accusation, from a waitress who used to work for Stringer. Stringer is technically only in the exploratory phase right now, which he’s been in since January, but he’s been talking more an more like just a regular candidate, including the campaign sending text messages saying “I’m running to be the next Mayor of New York City”, so we’re calling him a real candidate.
Actively exploring:
State Sen. Zellnor Myrie: Myrie, of Brooklyn, is one of the original IDC slayers, and a progressive legislator, though not to the extent of his the leftist movement leader neighbors Jabari Brisport and Julia Salazar. On paper Myrie is the perfect anti-Adams candidate: able to eat in Adams’s base while turning off few other voters. However, he has little name recognition or clear loyal allies in NYC politics and risks getting squeezed out of the race. Myrie formed an exploratory committee in May and not much has changed since.
Comptroller Brad Lander: Lander hasn't officially announced anything, even an exploratory committee, but he's begun acting a whole lot like a candidate. Politico’s New York team points out that he's fundraising aggressively, and has gotten key progressives allies on board, but for all the preparations he’s making he does have the option of just running for reelection and waiting until 2029 to go for mayor, even if recent reporting from Michael Gartland at NY Daily News says that a formal announcement is imminent within the next few weeks. Lander is on great terms with the left in the city and has emerged as the leading Adams critic, but there's also some concerns about how he’d fare against Adams. Adams won in 2021 with a coalition of Black voters and outerborough conservatives of all races. Lander doesn't necessarily chip away at any part of that, and could risk large defections from wealthy voters in Manhattan.
Andrew Cuomo: We’re just doing our best to pretend this isn’t happening.
Considering:
Everyone else in New York City politics: sure, everyone wants to be mayor, and many are even outright saying as much to the press. But no one else has taken the concrete fundraising steps, or has been reported as making overtures to organized labor and other key groups, that a serious mayoral run would necessitate. There's still time to start doing those things, but talk is cheap and we're not going to parse every scrap of speculation.
Comptroller
Actively exploring:
Comptroller Brad Lander: Lander can't run for mayor and comptroller simultaneously, so any doubt he has about running for mayor is functionally consideration for the comptroller office
Assemb. Jenifer Rajkumar: Rajkumar, of Queens, is the most prominent ally of Eric Adams in the Assembly. Though initially the partnership may have been a marriage of convenience from two politicians with few friends in the city, they clearly genuinely like each other at this point, and see Rajkumar running for Comptroller as a way to serve both their goals. Rajkumar would obviously love an office this prominent and Adams would like to finally have a friend in city government instead of waging lonely crusades against progressives. Rajkumar is the only candidate who would likely stay in the race if Lander does.
Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso: Reynoso, a progressive and natural politician who just won boroughwide, would be an ideal mayoral candidate in our opinion, but he evidently couldn’t get the behind-the-scenes support he needed, so he’ll have to settle for Comptroller, provided Lander winds up making the jump. Reynoso would almost certainly be the choice of progressives if he ran.
Manhattan Borough President Mark Levine: Levine is a boring Manhattan liberal, far from the worst or the best the island has ever produced. He’d be a strong fundraiser and has support from organized labor, but isn’t an exciting campaigner.
Of course, if Reynoso and Levine run for Comptroller, that would mean that Manhattan and Brooklyn would be electing new borough presidents, likely attracting large fields of candidates, which will almost certainly include council members, who will have to leave their council seats to run. The game of musical chairs has only just begun.
WA-06
The Seattle Times reports that Department of Natural Resources (DNR) head Hilary Franz has been leaning on DNR employees who work in Democratic politics to help her secure endorsements for her congressional run. Though there were no accusations of retaliation in the article, that behavior obviously crosses an ethical line, and her general behavior in the role was described by other employees as self-promotional and self-centered, even implying she it was bad enough to cost her the endorsement of public employee unions, including the Washington Public Employees Association, whose president cited both worker morale and safety as the reason they endorsed progressive state Sen. Emily Randall instead.
While the article makes serious accusations, so far it doesn’t appear to have been acknowledged by either campaign or other news outlets. Randall has pledged not to negatively campaign in this election.