Primary School 5/6
too many super PACs
FEC Special
First, we have some FEC data for you: the pre-primary FEC filings for May 17 primaries were due this week, giving us our last comprehensive look at candidates’ finances.
Outside $ Tracker
And introducing a new feature to save our own time and sanity, and make outside spending easier for you, the reader, to track: Who’s buying Congress this week? Welcome to our new outside spending tracker, monitoring independent expenditures made by outside groups in congressional races we cover, using data from the FEC.
CA-42
$33K of digital ads for Robert Garcia from Equality California.
GA-07
$96K of canvassing and $28K of mailers for Lucy McBath, done by Everytown for Gun Safety Victory Fund. Total Everytown spending: $743K
$116K of digital ads for Lucy McBath from BlackPAC. It’s a pretty generic positive spot. BlackPAC usually runs ads in general elections, but it handled tens of millions last cycle, so as a Super PAC this could all be an earmarked contribution from one donor. Total BlackPAC spending: $116K
IL-03
$180K digital ad buy for Delia Ramirez from the Working Families Party. The ad features Rep. Chuy García and focuses on Ramirez’s support of abortion rights and Medicare for All. Total WFP spending: $200K
KY-03
$971K TV, radio, and digital ad buy from Protect Our Future for Morgan McGarvey. It’s a bland positive spot claiming McGarvey will provide affordable healthcare and green jobs. Total POF spending: $971K
$52K in digital ads for Morgan McGarvey from Democratic Majority for Israel. The ad is boilerplate “stand up to Republicans” stuff. Total DMFI spending: $53K
NC-01
$523K for Don Davis from United Democracy Project (AIPAC). Their ad repeats the dubious claim from an earlier ad that that Davis is pro-choice. Total UDP spending: $886K, though it might actually be $937K if this filing contains a clerical error
$50K in phone calls and $270K in TV ads for Erica Smith from Working Families Party. Total WFP spending: $320K
NC-04
$482K in ads and $56K in mailers for Valerie Foushee from United Democracy Project (AIPAC). Total UDP spending: $893K
$96K of digital ads for Valerie Foushee from Democratic Majority for Israel. The ad is mostly the stuff Foushee has asked outside groups to mention, but makes sure to mention abortion rights, as well. Total DMFI spending: $96K
$58K on mailers for Valerie Foushee from Protect Our Future. Total POF spending: $919K
$50K on digital ads for Nida Allam from the Working Families Party. The ad touts her support of Medicare for All and a Green New Deal, but also “property tax relief”. Total WFP spending: $189K
$4000 in mailers for Nida Allam from North Carolina Asian Americans Together. Total NCAAT in Action spending: $4000
$3600 in phone banking and mailers for Nida Allam from Durham for All. Total Durham for All spending in this race: $3600
OR-04
$12K of digital ads attacking Andrew Kalloch from Unite Here Local 8. Total Unite Here spending: $12K
OR-05
$785K in pro-Kurt Schrader/anti-Jamie McLeod-Skinner ads from Mainstream Democrats Super PAC. The spot is entirely a pitch about electability. Total MDP spending: $800K
$650K in TV ads attacking Jamie McLeod-Skinner from Center Forward (Blue Dog Coalition). We haven’t found the ad yet, but it’s a departure from their previous pro-Schrader efforts. Total CF spending: $1.04M
$150K in digital ads and $76K in mailers for Jamie McLeod-Skinner from the Working Families Party. Total WFP spending: $226K
$2,900 in text banking for Jamie McLeod-Skinner from Indivisible Action. Total Indivisible spending: $6,200
$1,800 of positive digital ads for Kurt Schrader from the National Association of Home Builders. Total NAHB spending: $1,800
OR-06
$3.06M in ads, mail, and GOTV for Carrick Flynn from Protect Our Future. Their newest web ad features a grizzled old timer vouching for Flynn’s ability to convince people with “logic, facts, and reason” and their TV ads continue to focus on his life story. Total POF spending: an incomprehensible $10.3M
$199K of digital ads supporting Andrea Salinas from the League of Conservation Voters
PA-12
$491K against Summer Lee and $102K for Steve Irwin from United Democracy Project (AIPAC), plus another $146K in anti-Lee mailers. The web version of this ad repeats the “dismantle” quote from earlier, and accuses her of “attacking economic prosperity”. Total UDP spending: $1.09M
$60K in TV ads, $150K worth of digital ads for Summer Lee from the Working Families Party. The ad does a cute play on words with “winter in Washington”/”time for Summer”. Total WFP spending: $60K
$305K of TV ads and $95K of digital for Steve Irwin from Democratic Majority for Israel. The digital ads feature various accomplishments from his life, while the text of the Facebook version mentions his endorsements from outgoing Rep. Mike Doyle and Allegheny County Exec. Rich Fitzgerald. Total DMFI spending: $400K
$65K in digital ads for Summer Lee from the League of Conservation Voters. Total LCV spending: $65K
$65K in mailers for Summer Lee from the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC. Total CPC PAC spending: $155K
$25K of ads for Summer Lee from End Citizens United. Total ECU spending: $25K
TX-28
$333K in attack ads against Jessica Cisneros from United Democracy Project (AIPAC). The ads attack Cisneros for wanting to reduce Border Patrol jobs, which they symbolize by having CBP agents literally disintegrate on screen. Total UDP spending: $333K
$116K in mailers, $50K in digital ads and $50K for Spanish-language radio ads for Jessica Cisneros from Working Families Party. Total WFP spending in the runoff: $176K
$120K in pro-Jessica Cisneros digital spending from Women Vote! (EMILY’s List). The spending appears to be on the creation and promoting of the website texas28facts.com, which contrasts the candidates on three issues: abortion rights, worker rights, and the social safety net. Total WV! spending: $120K
$240K in radio, digital, and TV advertising for Henry Cuellar from newly-formed mystery PAC America United
$77K in radio ads for Jessica Cisneros from the League of Conservation Voters. Total LCV spending: $77K.
TX-30
$64K in mailers for Jasmine Crockett from Protect Our Future
Results
OH-11
Oof.
Nina Turner was an underdog from the moment Shontel Brown won the August 2021 special election primary. After fighting an expensive, ugly race, Turner lost, and now Brown had the advantage of incumbency in a rematch. True, redistricting would change the district enough in Turner’s favor that she couldn’t be written off, but we had to imagine Brown had at least something of an advantage over Turner. We did not imagine it would be this much of a landslide.
Sometimes, candidates just fall apart, either because of goings-on behind the scenes or because voters have simply moved on (and regardless of circumstances, millions in unanswered outside spending never help matters) Whichever it was, that appears to have happened to Nina Turner quite decisively, by a 66% to 34%. While the new territory helped Turner, she still lost Lakewood, progressive central, to Brown by 1%.
IN-SD-46
Public school principal Andrea Hunley pulled off the upset over party-backed Indianapolis City Councilor Kristin Jones. Hunley had a decent amount of money and support from local leaders, but Jones was unambiguously the establishment pick, propped up by an unusual party endorsement process called “slating,” so it’s good to see that fall flat.
IN-HD-82
Kyle Miller, a former nominee for redder state House seats backed by the Indiana Chamber of Commerce, defeated nonprofit leader Melissa Rinehart and former state Senate nominee Kathy Zoucha in a race that was very hard to analyze through any sort of ideological lens.
Boston City Council District 1
Gabriela Coletta will succeed her former boss, now-state Sen. Lydia Edwards; she got 57% to activist Tania Del Rio’s 33%. Both Coletta and Del Rio ran as progressives, like Edwards.
Nashville DA
Progressive-ish DA Glenn Funk was able to hold off Sara Beth Myers, who made vague gestures at supporting some of Funk’s reforms but was mainly backed by police unions. Funk got 43% to Myers’s 40%, while P. Danielle Nellis, who was vaguely running to Funk’s left, came in a distant third with 16%.
News
CA-13
Phil Arballo launched a negative ad against outright conservative Democratic Assemb. Adam Gray this week, and overall it’s pretty good: it slams Gray for the oil industry’s extensive financial support for him, ties Gray to Trump, and enlists several local elected officials to deliver the attacks directly to camera. Arballo isn’t much of a progressive himself, but Gray is just the worst, so we hope to see more of this.
CA-29
A mystery PAC, America United, has swooped in with an initial $188K on this race for Rep. Tony Cárdenas and a $38K followup. We don’t know who these guys are, but we already dislike them, because their next expenditure after Cárdenas was $240,000 on behalf of Henry Cuellar. Maybe this is just a favor to Cárdenas, or maybe Angelica Dueñas’s 43% showing in 2020 scared someone enough that they fear the 2022 rematch.
CA-37, FL-10, NC-01, OR-06
The Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC made another round of endorsements this week, wading into four open-seat contests in blue districts. They backed state Sen. Sydney Kamlager for CA-37, being vacated by Rep. Karen Bass as she runs for mayor of LA; Kamlager is frankly a bizarre endorsement for the CPC with former LA City Councilor Jan Perry and Culver City Mayor Daniel Lee both running to her left, so we think this one is more about Kamlager’s frontrunner status and close relationship with Bass, a senior CPC member. The caucus’s endorsements in three other seats were unambiguously good, though: activist Maxwell Alejandro Frost for FL-10, who would be a major upgrade over outgoing Rep. Val Demings; former state Sen. Erica Smith for NC-01, facing conservative and iffy-on-abortion state Sen. Don Davis; and state Rep. Andrea Salinas for OR-06, aligning progressives with the Oregon Democratic establishment as they seek to fend off $10 million in cryptocurrency super PAC spending (with a bizarre assist from House Democrats’ quasi-official super PAC) already spent on behalf of bland centrist think tank guy Carrick Flynn.
FL-22
Former prosecutor and Florida ADL leader Hava Holzhauer has launched a campaign for this seat. This is Holzhauer’s first time running for office, but she isn’t new to politics. In 2010 she unsuccessfully ran for a state House seat and in 2018 she ran Jewish outreach for the Andrew Gillum campaign.
Meanwhile, the frontrunner for this seat, Jared Moskowitz, is finally taking some heat for working for Gillum’s opponent. Moskowitz served as DeSantis’s Director of Emergency Management, overseeing the first year of DeSantis’s COVID response, and it’s nice to see him called out for it at local Democratic Party events.
GA-07
The state AFL-CIO backed Rep. Lucy McBath over fellow Rep. Carolyn Bourdeaux; both are moderates, but Bourdeaux has been a conservative thorn in the side for Democrats during legislative negotiations while McBath has been a loyal vote, and McBath (first elected in 2018) has two years of seniority on Bourdeaux (first elected in 2020.)
GA-13
This week, Bernie Sanders endorsed Vincent Fort, a former state senator and unsuccessful 2017 Atlanta mayoral candidate. Fort is trying to unseat House Agriculture Committee Chair David Scott, one of the most conservative members of the Democratic caucus; Scott was almost forced into a runoff in 2020 by an odd collection of unheralded, underfunded challengers, so it’s not hard to imagine Fort and South Fulton City Councilor Mark Baker getting him below 50%.
HI-Gov, HI-02
Rep. Kai Kahele has reportedly decided to run for HI-Gov instead of reelection to Congress. This sets up a blockbuster primary between him and LG Josh Green for governor, and creates an open up his House seat, HI-02. And with the news that former state Sen. Jill Tokuda is running for Kahele’s seat, she’s the tentative frontrunner while we await an official announcement from Kahele. Tokuda won’t be alone: state Rep. Patrick Pihana Branco and Honolulu City Council Chair Tommy Waters have also filed with the FEC, and we doubt they’ll be the last Democrats to jump at the rare opportunity for advancement presented by an open House seat (especially since Kahele himself shut other Democrats out of the race in 2020 for what was then Tulsi Gabbard’s seat.)
Meanwhile, former Honolulu Mayor Kirk Caldwell has finally, mercifully ended his doomed gubernatorial bid. Maybe it was his consistently atrocious polling; maybe it was his noticeable lack of endorsements; maybe it was the federal corruption probe that ensnared several higher-ups in his mayoral administration. Who can say, really?
IL-17
Rockford Ald. Jonathan Logemann has earned the support of the state AFL-CIO. This sets the AFL-CIO apart from the SEIU, which is backing progressive former state Rep. Litesa Wallace. This district, which snakes its way through three small metro areas, has no single machine or establishment in a position to push a candidate, and none of the four leading candidates have raised much money, which could make labor the kingmaker here. The AFL-CIO’s decision to get behind more moderate, establishment Logemann instead of following the SEIU’s lead here makes that harder.
MD-Gov
US Rep. Steny Hoyer endorsed Wes Moore last week. Hoyer isn’t a name most voters care about, but he does have a well-developed political network in Southern Maryland, and access to an unimaginable number of donors. Of course, Hoyer’s influence may be waning. Those connections weren’t enough to help his former staffer Jazz Lewis, who carried his endorsement in the MD-04 primary but was struggling badly enough for support that he dropped out a few weeks ago.
We have a new poll of this race…and it shows us nothing new. An internal paid for by a PAC supporting former Obama Education Secretary John B. King shows Comptroller Peter Franchot out in front with 20%, Moore with 13%, former Prince George’s County Executive Rushern Baker with 10%, former DNC Chair and Labor Secretary Tom Perez at 7%, former state AG Doug Gansler with 5%, and King with 3%. (Their rationale for releasing this poll, which is unambiguously horrible for their candidate? He did slightly better than some of his rivals when candidate biographies were read to poll respondents.) The poll was conducted in early April, so it might be an outdated view of the race—but the race has been in a holding pattern for weeks now, so then again, perhaps not. Whatever, it’s a new data point.
NC-04
Nida Allam received two meaningful endorsements this week: the Raleigh News & Observer, the state’s largest newspaper, and recently retired Durham mayor Steve Schewel. Indy Weekly, a Research Triangle-based alt-weekly, had already endorsed Allam, but that was never much in doubt. The News & Observer specifically cited state Sen. Valerie Foushee’s blessing of AIPAC’s attempts to buy the election for her as a major factor in their decision-making. Speaking of those attempts, that $316,801 that Foushee raised 4/1-4/27? $268,228 of it was from AIPAC bundling efforts. That’s 85%. Another $5,000 came from the Maryland Association for Concerned Citizens PAC, which is run by an AIPAC board member. Less than 14% of her money came from non-AIPAC sources. The millions in aid from AIPAC and crypto money are working for her, though: EMILY’s List released a poll today, showing Foushee (who they have endorsed) far in the lead with 35% of the vote to Nida Allam’s 16% and Clay Aiken’s 10%. That’s a painful result, and Allam’s campaign has to hope that it reflects much higher voter familiarity with Foushee (the poll did say she had at least ⅔ name recognition) in late April, which will change with the home stretch ads being run by Allam and her allies. The polling memo said 62% of voters have seen pro-Foushee ads, and that Foushee leads by 32% among those voters, implying the margin among everyone else is about Allam+2. Even if that’s true, it’s still a tough place to start from for Allam.
NY-Gov, NY-Lt. Gov
Oh, for fuck’s sake. Gov. Kathy Hochul got the legislature to pass a law allowing her to replace indicted ex-Lt. Gov. Brian Benjamin on the ballot and immediately made the worst choice imaginable, tapping Hudson Valley Rep. Antonio Delgado. Now, Delgado isn’t bad for his current office—he represents a true swing district, so the annoying parts of his voting record can be explained. But that makes him an extraordinarily bad choice for LG: he potentially costs House Democrats a seat when they can hardly afford to lose any, he breaks the unofficial tradition of gubernatorial tickets having at least one person from the New York City area (home to a majority of the state’s population), and he has a record that doesn’t fit statewide office in deep-blue New York. Perhaps in a sign that Hochul didn’t think things through, her announcement of Delgado was followed quite closely by a noteworthy endorsement for progressive challenger Ana María Archila: Brooklyn Rep. Nydia Velázquez, who has a weird but overall symbiotic relationship with the left while never upsetting too many establishment power players, endorsed Archila today. Velázquez has at this point spent three years as a colleague of Delgado, who joined Congress in 2019, so it’s hard not to read it as a timely snub of Delgado just as much as it is a boost for Archila.
OR-05
Rep. Kurt Schrader released a Roe v. Wade themed ad. That’s a good turnaround time from the ad department, and an absolutely cynical move from the campaign. Schrader supports the Hyde Amendment—he’s more or less the least pro-choice member of the caucus besides Henry Cuellar (who we will get to).
OR-06
Last week, Carrick Flynn, while arguing for taking the spotted owl off the endangered species list, praised Timber Unity, a logging industry front group built to fight environmental regulations that has spun out from its original intentions into various facets of far-right extremism. Environmental groups have now condemned Flynn for this, and the campaign has gone into damage control, saying that Flynn mentioned the wrong group, an obvious lie—Timber Unity is well known in Oregon and it’s not like there’s another big-name organization fighting for more logging rights and less environmental regulation.
The biggest problem with this race has long been the lack of any coalescing around a non-Flynn alternative. State Rep. Andrea Salinas made strides this week in fixing that problem. First, she released a poll from Public Policy Polling showing her in first with 18%, Flynn in second at 14%, and no one else registering in the double digits. She also picked up a big endorsement: the Congressional Progressive Caucus. They may have little in the way of financial backing for their candidates (so far, at least, but that could change) but they will be an important signal for voters and organizations looking for a Flynn alternative.
RI-Gov
April 28: Gov. Dan McKee ducks out of upcoming candidate forum, no reason given. May 2: McKee decides to participate in that forum after all, also no reason given. Now comes the fun part where you get to speculate on what the hell happened here. Indecisive campaign manager? Poor communication? Bad poll numbers come in during those four days? Who knows! Speaking of bad poll numbers for McKee, Secretary of State Nellie Gorbea has those: in a newly-released internal poll conducted in mid-April, Gorbea led McKee 30% to 24%. Former SoS and 2018 gubernatorial candidate Matt Brown and CVS executive Helena Foulkes trailed with 10% and 7%, respectively. If correct, this poll is bad news for McKee, who should be leading as the incumbent; Brown, whose name recognition should be high after running in 2018; and Foulkes, who is now the fundraising leader in this field. Speaking of fundraising…
Q1 financial reports are finally in, and they reveal that Foulkes now has $1.5 million in the bank, after a monster fundraising haul of $1.3 million, $400K of which was self-funded. McKee sits on $1.1 million after raising $427K, Gorbea raised $378K to reach $896K in reserves, and Matt Brown continues to run a shoestring operation, with only $79K in the bank.
TX-28
In addition to all the money flowing into South Texas, we have to note something else: House leadership continues to support Henry Cuellar, the only anti-abortion Democrat left in the House, even after the news broke of Roe v. Wade’s likely overturning. House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn, the third-ranking Democrat in the House, went to San Antonio to stump for Cuellar, striking an almost defiant tone to deflect attention away from the fact that by trying to reelect Cuellar he is materially hurting the cause of abortion rights in the House of Representatives. Jessica Cisneros has called on leadership to end their campaigning efforts for Cuellar as they simultaneously talk about the need to codify Roe v. Wade, but as Clyburn frankly told the San Antonio Report, it’s just simply not a big priority for them, they’re focused on “much weightier issue[s] than this”.
Elizabeth Warren, after the Roe v. Wade draft leaked, went to MSNBC for a furious attack on anti-choice lawmakers. At one point she singled out the Cisneros/Cuellar race, and made an appeal for viewers to contribute to Cisneros. Though no concrete numbers have been made public, the appeal obviously worked, because Cisneros is now running Facebook ads with that clip.
Nashville Mayor
The election may be a year away, but this race is heating up early. Hal Cato, a nonprofit executive and former tech startup CEO, released an internal poll showing himself leading incumbent mayor John Cooper 38% to 28%, with investment banker Matt Wiltshire at 13%. Major red flag though: these were after the poll read bios for each candidate out. That is a major thumb on the scale. This isn’t really a valid horserace poll; take it with an asterisk. On top of that, Councilmember Freddie O’Connell, who is running out of frustration with Cooper’s reluctance to build transit and other municipal improvements, and may be the only not-terrible candidate, entered the race after the poll was fielded. Forget the specifics of the other candidates in the poll for a moment: 28% for an incumbent mayor is terrible, since people presumably should know who he is without the bio. A recent Vanderbilt poll has his approval falling down to the mid-50s. This is going to be a race to watch next year.
5/10 Primary Preview
We’re not going to be doing a full primary preview for next week’s primaries; the two states voting are West Virginia and Nebraska, and neither one has much of anything happening on the Democratic side. The two big races to watch out for are in Lincoln, Nebraska, both for seats in Nebraska’s odd unicameral, nonpartisan legislature; legislators are almost always aligned with one of the two parties, and Republicans have a majority, but it’s narrow and fluid enough that Democrats still matter from time to time. In LD-26, public defender George C. Dungan III will face off against a Republican (Nebraska elections are technically non-partisan but everyone knows who stands where), and also against generic-sounding Democrat Larry Weixelman. In LD-46, ex-state legislator Danielle Conrad is making a comeback bid but will be facing Lincoln Councilman James Michael Bowers. The Charleston, WV mayoral race will probably not be that close, but incumbent mayor Amy Shuler Goodwin is being challenged by activist Martec Washington in a partisan primary. Goodwin is a rare liberal in West Virginia, while Washington has been endorsed by populist figures (well, at this point mostly figures on social media) Richard Ojeda and Paula Jean Swearengin.