Primary School 12/19
crypto super PAC money: it's baaaaack
Housekeeping
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Super PACs
After the crypto industry improbably survived the collapse of its leading banks and the revelation that the entire industry is a fraud, it was only a matter of time before some billionaire dunce tried to throw his ape JPEGs around in the political arena once more. Or several of them. Apparently, the crypto industry has set up a trio of super PACs to spend on its behalf and try, desperately, to convince Congress to exempt crypto investments from securities regulations. One, Fairshake, has already begun spending on swing district representatives. (A word to the wise megadonor: swing district reps cost the most and bring the least return on investment.) Two more, Protect Progress and Defend American Jobs, have yet to begin spending, but together with Fairshake, the three super PACs have reportedly raised $78 million already. The donors include a cast of alleged and convicted securities violators like admitted money-laundering facilitator Coinbase and its CEO, accused insider trader Brian Armstrong; Andreessen Horowitz, cofounded by Armstrong’s insider trading codefendant and incredibly pointy-headed fascist Marc Andreessen; and the Winklevoss twins, whose unregistered crypto securities exchange Gemini currently faces a billion-dollar civil fraud suit from the state of New York. So, we have another year of terrible, vapid crypto ads to look forward to. Cool. Hate it here.
While we’re on the subject of super PACs, remember when DMFI was the biggest financial backer of centrist Democrats with a progressive opponent, before crypto and AIPAC money flooded the zone in 2022? They're still around, and just because AIPAC has more funds to throw around doesn't mean DMFI can't affect a primary if they want to. This week they released their initial endorsement list of 83 incumbents. A few names caught our eye: Bill Foster and Rob Menendez Jr., who already have serious opponents; Jimmy Gomez, who was barely reelected over a more progressive challenger in 2020 and 2022; and Dan Goldman, who won in 2022 with less than a quarter of the vote in a district that might be changed significantly in redistricting.
NY redistricting
New York’s highest court sent mapmakers back to the drawing board again. This doesn’t mean Democrats get to gerrymander right away; it means that the Independent Redistricting Commission gets a second try at drawing maps. The IRC failed to agree on a map the first time around, leading the Democratic legislature to toss their proposals and draw their own aggressive gerrymander; last year New York’s highest court said Democrats had overstepped in doing so, and had a special master draw a mostly-nonpartisan but often bewildering map that undid Democrats’ gerrymander and also busted up a non-gerrymandered Democratic seat upstate to return it to a form more closely resembling the GOP-friendly 2012-2022 maps. This time, the court put the onus on the redistricting commission, saying the commissioners had failed in their constitutional duty to send maps to the legislature for an up-or-down vote. This decision, which is unambiguous good news for Democrats, is only possible because of progressive opposition sinking Kathy Hochul’s first nominee to replace the author of the last redistricting opinion (the one that ruled against Democrats.) The overwhelmingly Democratic legislature will get a chance to accept or reject the commission’s maps, which are due in by February 28, and if they choose to reject the commission’s maps, the legislature gets to draw its own.
Almost any redraw will be good for Jamaal Bowman, who currently has the most suburban district possible. We expect other significant changes will mostly come in GOP-held swing seats—though who knows, maybe they’ll try to get rid of Nicole Malliotakis and her Staten Island-based red district.
CA-Sen
Rep. Barbara Lee earned two new endorsements from Southern California mayors: Konstantine Anthony of Burbank (pop. 107,000) and Farrah Khan (pop. 308,000) of Irvine. While Irvine is a much larger city, it was Anthony whose endorsement gained more press, since he was switching over from supporting Adam Schiff, owing to Schiff’s opposition to a ceasefire in the Israel-Palestine conflict. Both mayors are noteworthy for who lives in their cities: Schiff is from Burbank, and Katie Porter is from Irvine.
New polling out this week shows that Lee is still well behind her competition, but is less clear on where the rest of the field stands. The Public Policy Institute of California’s regular survey found Schiff in first with 22%, Porter in second with 16%, Republican Steve Garvey in third with 10%, and Lee in fourth with 8%. A new SurveyUSA poll finds something a little different: Schiff still in front with 22%, but Garvey in second with 15% and Lee tied with Porter for third at 12%.
CA-25
Indio City Councilor Oscar Ortiz had a well-attended launch party for his upstart bid against Rep. Raul Ruiz, who has represented the Coachella Valley since 2013. Among the local notables present were two Coachella city councilors, Stephanie Virgen and Neftali Galarza; an Indio city planning commissioner, Christian Rodriguez Ceja; and a local California Democratic Party delegate, Kimberly Miranda.
CA-26
We noted last week that Agoura Hills City Councilor Chris Anstead had filed for Congress without announcing anything, and it turns out Anstead is indeed running against Rep. Julia Brownley, a centrist Democrat. Bizarrely, he seems to be doing so from the right, if his stated focus on crime and what he perceives as underfunded police departments is any indication.
MD-Sen
Rep. David Trone called in a favor from House leadership and got the top three House Democrats to endorse his Senate campaign. It’s not unusual for House leadership to support members when they run for higher office (as long as they’re not running against other members) nor is it likely to move any Maryland voters (the top three are a New Yorker, a Masshole, and a Californian.) It’ll help Trone with donors, we suppose, which would mean a lot more if the Total Wine magnate weren’t one of the biggest campaign self-funders in American history.
MN-05
Several months ago, Matthew Kassel of Jewish Insider reported that AIPAC was going to be spending loads of money to defeat Ilhan Omar, and that they’d already picked out their candidate: Minneapolis City Councilmember LaTrisha Vetaw. For whatever reason (we suspect it has something to do with the pro-Jacob Frey/centrist wing of the council that Vetaw belongs to losing badly in last month’s elections), Vetaw has decided against running, according to Kassel, which means there’s suddenly a lot of money up for grabs. Now that Don Samuels is clearly the highest profile Omar challenger, his campaign manager—failed congressional candidate turned centrist operative Joe Radinovich, who ran Jacob Frey’s reelection campaign—is just openly begging for super PAC involvement in the pages of the New York Times. Radinovich, clearly speaking to AIPAC in an article about AIPAC, said “Four million [dollars] would be more than enough for us to do what we need to do.” $4 million for a primary would be an absolutely batshit House campaign budget but merely a very generous amount for an independent expenditure campaign, given the higher rates PACs get charged by law, so it’s quite clear to a campaign-experienced reader that Radinovich is bluntly requesting $4 million in spending from a super PAC to aid in Samuels and AIPAC’s shared mission of ousting Ilhan Omar from Congress. Technically you are allowed to do this because federal campaign finance law is a farce, but we do not advise it because it looks very slimy. You can see why AIPAC was trying to find an alternative to Don Samuels to take on Ilhan Omar before he announced.
Also in that New York Times article is Sarah Gad, who said she has “two interlocutors, including an Israeli filmmaker, Jonathan Baruch, pressing her case with AIPAC”. Gad has run for Congress before, challenging Bobby Rush in IL-01 in 2020. A month ago, Gad was attempting to run as a bit more of a mainstream Democrat than Samuels, making sure to mention that she’s a defense attorney who understands what drug addicts are going through, before decrying police abolitionism and BDS. But much like what part of the country she’s running for office in, her positions are clearly negotiable—back then, in the long-ago pre-history of mid-November, she said, “I'm not going to cozy up to AIPAC.” There’s actually a third candidate running against Omar, Tim Peterson, but we have to imagine AIPAC has more sense than to throw in behind a white guy who can’t raise money by himself or stop talking for a second about the apocalyptic nightmare that is police not being respected enough. But he’s clearly also trying for that money, or he wouldn’t be in that NYT piece, and wouldn’t begin it by making sure him saying “Hamas is fascist” makes it to print.
NJ-Sen
Gov. Phil and First Lady Tammy Murphy’s campaign to become the ultimate power couple is hitting a rough patch. The governor’s full-court press to round up endorsements for his wife’s Senate campaign paid off handsomely with early endorsements from high-ranking machine bosses and elected officials, but the party machine’s rank-and-file doesn’t quite seem on board yet, much less the voters. In a straw poll of Monmouth County Democratic municipal chairs, mayors, and state legislators, Rep. Andy Kim bested Tammy Murphy 53% to 24%, with the remainder undecided. Monmouth could very well award its line to Kim at the convention, and as the New Jersey Globe’s Joey Fox notes in an excellent analysis of the battle for county lines, Kim likely has a shot in every county with an open convention—which together account for about 40% of the Democratic primary electorate. According to a new internal poll released by the Kim campaign, the voters are even more skeptical of Tammy Murphy’s campaign: Kim leads Murphy 45%-22% in the poll, with Bob Menendez getting a pitiful 3% of the vote, even falling behind former Newark school board member Larry Hamm at 6%. The poll did not include former Rep. Tom Malinowski, who recently gave a campaign pitch to party leaders in suburban Union County, much of which he previously represented in Congress.
The news outside of the horse race has been no more favorable to the Murphys. Former Murphy campaign aide Katie Brennan—who was effectively blacklisted from New Jersey politics and government after accusing a fellow campaign aide of rape—came forward to reiterate her allegations and say that the Murphys are unfit for the Senate based on how they mishandled her allegations. And the Star-Ledger, which previously praised the First Lady’s signature efforts to reduce maternal mortality, investigated her claims on that matter—finding that New Jersey’s maternal mortality rate hadn’t actually dropped, and the state’s improvement in maternal mortality rankings was caused by other states becoming even deadlier for mothers.
NJ-Gov
Former New Jersey Senate President Steve Sweeney launched his long-awaited gubernatorial campaign last week. It’s a bit of an odd look for the figurehead of George Norcross’s South Jersey machine after he lost reelection and decided not to run to reclaim his seat from Republican Ed Durr in 2023, but after South Jersey Democrats had a great November (and North Jersey’s Democratic machines had a terrible one because they neglected to meaningfully support Democrats who lost by narrow margins in GOP-held seats) they’ve earned a bit of overconfidence. Every current or future Democratic legislator from South Jersey, including the crop of newly-elected Democrats in Sweeney’s old seat, endorsed him almost immediately. So did the carpenters’ union, a traditional power base of the South Jersey machine and Sweeney, a former ironworkers’ union leader, in particular. The longshoreman’s union, which represents thousands of workers at the sprawling port complexes dotting New Jersey’s side of New York Harbor, also backed Sweeney; this is a little more noteworthy, as they’re a northern union and Sweeney is an incredibly regional politician whose posture towards North Jersey has long been outright hostile.
A refresher on Sweeney: generally recognized as an avatar of South Jersey boss George Norcross III, he developed an excellent working relationship with Republican Gov. Chris Christie owing to their agreement on gutting public-sector pensions and capping property taxes for the rich, an agenda he continued to push after Christie left office and was replaced by a Democrat who didn’t want to do that. His only declared opponent so far is Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, who has awkwardly but truthfully positioned himself as the least dirty, least conservative candidate in the race. Fulop has recently began a good-government push reminiscent of his early days as an anti-machine agitator representing downtown JC on the city council, and there’s no better contrast than Sweeney. Fulop’s problem is that he can’t count on being the only North Jersey candidate: Reps. Mikie Sherrill and Josh Gottheimer are widely considered to be likely candidates after their 2024 reelections become official.
NJ-03
Burlington Democrats are taking sides ahead of the spring convention that will determine which of Assembs. Herb Conaway and Carol Murphy will get the Burlington Democratic organizational line, and with it a glide path to Congress. Conaway rolled out endorsements from Burlington County’s sheriff, county clerk, and three of its five Democratic county commissioners, as well as four mayors, four Democratic municipal chairs, and a scattering of local councilors. Murphy responded with the endorsement of Assemb.-elect Andrea Katz, who became the first Democrat in decades to win Burlington’s light-blue LD-08 with her upset victory over GOP Assemb. Brandon Umba in November.
NJ-08
Rob Menendez Jr. called in the endorsements of state Sens.-elect Raj Mukherji and Angela McKnight; both are sitting assemblypersons who together represent most of his district’s population in the Assembly and will soon do the same in the Senate. Calling in endorsements this early is a sign that the Hudson County Democratic Organization, the county’s vaunted and infamous ruling machine, does not expect an easy reelection for Menendez in the face of a challenge from Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla.
NC State House
North Carolina House Democrats have a problem that’s dogged legislators mostly in blue states: a stubborn bloc of conservative Democrats who are more than willing to vote with the GOP on major bills. (Before her party switch, state Rep. Tricia Cotham was one of them.) With candidate filing now closed, there’s good news on that front: most of those troublesome state reps have drawn primary challenges. High Point state Rep. Cecil Brockman will face former High Point NAACP president James Adams, rural white conservative state Rep. Michael Wray will face former North Carolina Teacher of the Year and current redistricting plaintiff Rodney D. Pierce, northeastern NC state Rep. Shelly Willingham will face former Green candidate Abbie Leon Lane, and Charlotte state Rep. Carla Cunningham will face Army National Guardsman and college student Vermanno Bowman. A month ago the Young Democrats of North Carolina launched what they’re calling a “Find Out Fund” to support primary challengers to Democrats who vote with the Republican supermajority on major bills, and it sounds like Adams, at least, is a likely future beneficiary of that money. Pierce also strikes us as a potentially formidable candidate.
Baltimore City Council President
Baltimore City Councilman Zeke Cohen has an awkward task ahead of him: cobbling together a coalition to unseat incumbent City Council President Nick Mosby will require him to unite the Mosbys’ various detractors—from progressives to white liberals to conservatives—or pick off some of the Mosbys’ base. Nick’s soon-to-be-ex-wife Marilyn had a stunning rise and fall, from her election as an original “progressive prosecutor” in 2014 to her quick alienation of progressives with carceral policies once in office to her 2022 reelection defeat and 2023 conviction on perjury charges relating to a mortgage fraud scheme. The pair are hard to separate in Baltimore politics, even if they soon may separate matrimonially, and Marilyn’s troubles have clearly been dragging Nick, a former state delegate from West Baltimore, down. (Not helping matters are Nick’s own ethical issues.) An early poll already showed Cohen leading Mosby 30%-17%, and progressives have already lined up behind Cohen, an outspoken progressive who’s made fighting Baltimore’s power utility monopoly, Baltimore Gas & Electric, a signature issue of his. Endorsements that come from beyond his progressive base are what he needs—and what he got, in the form of the Baltimore-D.C. Metro Building Trades Council. Building trades unions, like the 28 that make up this council of unions, generally lean conservative by the standards of labor organizations, and also generally have pretty effective political operations. Having them on his side early will help scare off other serious challengers who might split the anti-Mosby vote (except for 2020 runner-up Shannon Sneed, who’s already announced she’ll also run), and it’ll also help Cohen expand his appeal beyond progressives, urbanists, and single-issue Mosby haters.
Cook County, IL
The Chicago Teachers Union is fresh off a wildly successful election cycle that culminated in the election of one of their own, Brandon Johnson, as mayor. The progressive juggernaut released a second round of endorsements for the 2024 election cycle earlier this month—mostly incumbents, but also including two newsy, if unsurprising, endorsements. In the race to be Cook County’s top prosecutor, Clayton Harris III is the consensus choice of progressives led by Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle, and now the CTU as well. CTU also endorsed longtime Metropolitan Water Reclamation District Board member Mariyana Spyropoulos in her progressive/Preckwinkle-backed challenge to conservative Cook County Clerk of Courts Iris Martinez, a leading figure in Northwest Side conservative politics. (CTU has already endorsed Graciela Guzman, a CTU organizer challenging Martinez’s handpicked Northwest Side state senator, Natalie Toro.)
Harris County DA
Harris County Democrats finally got around to voting on whether to admonish DA Kim Ogg, and the result was an overwhelming 129 to 61 in favor of admonishment. Ogg has been adamant that this is a result not of her conservative policies on criminal justice, but of her decision to investigate the highest ranking Democrat in the county, County Judge Lina Hidalgo, for evidence tampering, and, left unsaid, her subsequent move to indict another three public officials she was publicly feuding with.
It was probably a mixture of both that led Ogg to earn the official ire of her party, but with early voting in her primary, where she faces progressive Sean Teare, starting in less than two months, she absolutely needs to make the corruption angle stick.
Los Angeles City Council District 4
Prosecutor Ethan Weaver has spend the last few months of 2022 collecting endorsements for his challenge to democratic socialist incumbent Nithya Raman, who was intentionally given a less friendly district in redistricting by the rest of the Council. He now counts among his supporters several unions, including the building trades, AFSCME, several police unions, the ILWU and the SEIU-affiliated nurses local, and, most auspiciously, the firefighters, UFLAC, who are putting about $180,000 behind Weaver. Weaver can also count among his supporters a growing number of establishment-friendly politicians, including state Treasurer Fiona Ma and four assemblymembers, one of which—Rick Chavez Zbur—represents part of the fourth council district.
All of that makes this week’s choice by the Los Angeles County Democratic Party to endorse Raman over Weaver, despite Weaver overwhelmingly winning the preliminary pre-endorsement “recommendation” round weeks prior, all the crazier. Weaver was so sure he'd locked up the official party endorsement that he was already putting it on campaign material. The reversal was likely a result of Mayor Karen Bass, who re-upped her endorsement of Raman on Dec. 11, and sent out a letter of support for Raman before the party vote, according to the Westside Current.
Westchester County DA
It’s been a few weeks since first-term Westchester County DA Mimi Rocah announced her surprise retirement, and since then, a formidable field has assembled to replace her as the top prosecutor for the suburban county’s one million residents.
Westchester County Judge Susan Cacace: Cacace is a former prosecutor with family connections in county politics, and is diligently attempting not to piss off either reformers or tough-on-crime types in her campaign. Her best known ruling is the 3-9 year sentence she gave to a 15 year old who killed a classmate.
Assistant District Attorney Adeel Mirza: Mirza has been a prosecutor for his entire career of two decades, until he was fired by Rocah in 2021. While Rocah was no progressive, her campaign was focused on being less cruel and punitive than incumbent Anthony Scarpino. Before Scarpino, Westchester DAs were Republicans (although one did switch to Democrat while in office). The ADAs who get dropped from a DA’s office after a less tough-on-crime DA takes over tend to be the most resistant to reform, which is cause for wariness of Mirza.
Civil rights and defense attorney William Wagstaff III: Wagstaff is, as of now, the progressive in the election. His case history includes representing Black Lives Matter activists, the family of a man who died at Rikers, and the family of a man who was killed by New Rochelle police. He’s also, promisingly, publicly admonished Rocah for overzealous gang prosecutions.
Department of Probation Commissioner Sheralyn Pulver-Goodman: Pulver-Goodman is probably an also-ran candidate and definitely confusing. She both ran for a town office as a Green in 2019, and also contributed to centrist Jamaal Bowman challenger Vedat Gashi in 2022. In her last campaign she ran both on her experience as a prosecutor and a member of the Legal Aid Society.
Paypal executive David Szuchman: Szuchman has a long career as a prosecutor, mostly working in offices covering Manhattan, but since 2016 he’s been working for Paypal. While he has a respected prosecutorial career, his main asset in this race will probably be knowing rich guys.