Oregon Primary Preview

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OR-01: Suzanne Bonamici (i) vs. Amanda Siebe (vs. Heidi Briones and Ricky Barajas)

Suzanne Bonamici is unique among Oregon Democrats this year in that she gets to skate to reelection. She’s being challenged by disability rights activist Amanda Siebe, dental office manager Ricky Barajas, and Heidi Briones. Siebe is running on a great left-wing platform and would be preferable to Bonamici, a decent but not particularly great member of Congress, while Barajas and Briones, a UBI advocate endorsed by Andrew Yang, would be lateral moves at best. Barajas ran in 2018 and got 4%, which is honestly not a bad guess for how he’ll do this time around; Briones is a good test of how much a Yang endorsement is worth (probably even less than 4%), and we’re hoping for better things for Siebe, but Bonamici’s likely not going to dip below 75 or 80%.

OR-03: Earl Blumenauer (i) vs. Albert Lee

Earl Blumenauer, a Congressional Progressive Caucus member, cosponsor of both the Green New Deal and Medicare for All, and a 48 year political veteran with an affable and quirky personal brand, without any personal scandals or great demographic mismatch with his district, would seem fairly well insulated from primary challenges to his left, if it weren’t for one thing: he represents Portland. Portland may not be the most left-wing city in America, but they’re doing their best to be up there, and they have not been shy about voting against more establishment candidates when they’re faced off against more progressive candidates.

Blumenauer’s main opponent in this race is Albert Lee, a former college dean and regular of the Portland activist scene, who unfortunately has been severely under-resourced - as in he’s under $100,000 so far. Still, he’s gotten the endorsement of the Oregon branch of the American Federation of Teachers, the Portland Mercury, a local alt-weekly analogous to The Stranger in Seattle, and a large collection of local Portland progressive groups. It’s a definite longshot, but a good performance on Tuesday could portend good things for Lee in the future.

OR-04: Peter DeFazio (i) vs. Doyle Canning

Peter DeFazio is in a similar position to Blumenauer. Though, youthful fresh voice that he is, he’s only been in government 38 years continuously, not 48. OR-04, which covers most of the state’s coast and contains the college towns of Eugene and Corvallis, is just as fertile ground for a left-wing challenge as Portland, but with a very different picture in the general election. OR-03 is very, very Democratic; OR-04 was the most evenly divided congressional district in the country in the 2016 presidential election, favoring Hillary Clinton by a margin of just 554 votes. 

Republicans, after nominating absolute nutcase Art Robinson in every election for the past decade, are finally running a somewhat legit candidate in Marine veteran Alex Skarlatos. DeFazio is a reliable progressive vote; however, as chair of the House Transportation Committee, he bears some responsibility for the House’s anemic oversight of the Trump administration--DeFazio’s committee, for example, has oversight authority over Trump’s DC hotel. (It has not used that authority.) DeFazio is pretty good, but his loss would do the most to scare House leadership and demonstrate dissatisfaction with Congress’s approach to legislating and the Trump administration.

OR-05: Kurt Schrader (i) vs. Mark Gamba (vs. Blair Reynolds)

We’ve now arrived at the state’s race to watch.

Incumbent Kurt Schrader is one of the most conservative Democrats in Congress. He’s a Blue Dog who sticks out in the largely progressive Oregon congressional delegation. He infuriated Oregon labor—never a fan of his to begin with—more than ever before when he voted against the PRO Act, a labor law reform that only five Democrats voted against. The PRO Act would have made it easier to unionize, and his no vote was just an escalation of Schrader’s long-time opposition to unions. The emergence of Schrader’s first serious primary challenger provided a golden opportunity for unions to get revenge, and several unions jumped at the chance, endorsing Milwaukie Mayor Mark Gamba.

Mark Gamba entered the race early last year, but his political career dates back to 2012, when he ran for and won an open Council seat for Milwaukie, a working class suburban city of 21,000 bordering Portland. Gamba, who found his proposals DOA as the only progressive on the Council, engineered a takeover of the body by his allies during the 2014 election, which he followed up with a successful 2015 run for mayor. He had good timing, taking office right as TriMet (Portland mass transit rail) opened a station in Milwaukie. This led to a development boom that Gamba and his allies have had the opportunity to shape. He’s left his mark on the city and gained some friends in state government.

Gamba is an unusual progressive primary challenger in that he’s an older (he’ll be 61 at his swearing-in) white man with an established political career. But perhaps that’s less unusual in Oregon, one of the few states with a leftist political infrastructure that wields actual influence and power. Gamba’s campaign, despite poor fundraising—roughly $233,000—has picked up endorsements from a who's who of progressives in the state: five state legislators and many more in local government, the Oregon Working Families Party, DSA, Our Revolution, and the Portland Mercury. Even more important is his union backing, including the SEIU, Teamsters, AFT, and ILWU. In most states the AFL-CIO is closely wedded to the political establishment, but in Oregon they opted against endorsing in this race, and the only union endorsement the Schrader campaign has touted has been the Oregon Education Association, the state’s chapter of the NEA. Schrader, unsurprisingly, also has the backing of the majority of elected officials in the district, and, disappointingly, Planned Parenthood.

The campaign thus far has been largely one-sided, and surprisingly low-key. Mark Gamba, lacking the money for much paid media, has led a mostly volunteer staff, while Kurt Schrader had not been actively campaigning outside of a few media interviews, despite his large warchest of over $3 million. That changed in late April when he produced his first ad in six years, which he has put into reasonably heavy rotation on the airwaves in the last couple weeks. Schrader clearly thinks he has reason to worry.

SB 1049

More than one of the races from here on out are going to be intertwined with SB 1049, so now’s a good time for a refresher. Oregon public employees are given benefits and a retirement fund in the form of a pension, which is more or less a guaranteed amount to be paid in retirement to each employee, as opposed to a 401K, more common in the private sector, where the employer  gives the employees the retirement money with each paycheck, but places it in a special kind of investment that will mature in an employees retirement. This is a better deal for employers, who get away without incurring any future liabilities, but a worse one for employees, whose retirement funds are at the mercy of the market. Funding pensions is not easy for state governments, and states who chose not to fund pensions for the future have to put up the money in yearly budgets, while others chose to make a running investment that pension funds pay out of. This was what Oregon had been doing, and it was more than fully funded. Then 2008 happened.

After 10 years of making up the difference between the Oregon pension own fund and what was owed to retirees, Oregon Democrats decided to find a more permanent solution. Unfortunately, the more permanent solution was to stiff workers. That bill was SB 1049. Oregon labor unions were not happy. In fact, they are still incensed, and are out for blood. Democrats (and the three Republicans) who voted for SB 1049 won’t be getting the support of the AFL-CIO or AFSCME this year, and many unions are going further, backing challengers who promise to fight for full pension funding.

Oregon SoS: Shemia Fagan vs. Mark Hass vs. Jamie McLeod-Skinner

This is technically a Republican-held seat; however, the incumbent is a caretaker serving out the rest of the late Dennis Richardson’s term. Whoever wins the Democratic primary will start out as a strong favorite in the general election. The Secretary of State’s office is also noteworthy because Oregon is one of just a handful of states without a lieutenant governor, putting the Secretary of State first in line to succeed the governor should they leave office before their term is up. Current Gov. Kate Brown herself became governor this way, succeeding Gov. John Kitzhaber in 2015 after he resigned due to a sex-and-corruption scandal. With Brown term-limited in 2022 and Sen. Ron Wyden also getting up there in years, this primary has potentially massive implications for Oregon politics. You’d expect an opportunity like this to attract every ambitious young Oregon Democratic politician. It…hasn’t.

State Sen. Mark Hass has been a low-profile member of the Oregon legislature for nearly 20 years, but now, after so long in the legislature, he’s suddenly pulled the trigger on a run for statewide office. He seems to be the moderate choice in this race; unions and activist groups don’t like him, and he voted for SB 1049. We’ll pass.

Jamie McLeod-Skinner is an Oregon politician...as of a few years ago. From 2004 to 2012, she was a member of the Santa Clara, California city council. She then moved to Oregon and held various administrative positions in local and state government, as well as an elected position on the board of the Jefferson County Education Service District. She also ran as the sacrificial lamb against longtime Republican Rep. Greg Walden in OR-02, Oregon’s only red district, in 2018. In other words, she hasn’t got much in the way of a record to indicate where she stands ideologically. But she does have the support of progressive activist groups such as Oregon’s Sunrise and Our Revolution chapters.

State Sen. Shemia Fagan is the only politician in the SoS race who fits the profile of who you’d expect to jump at an opportunity for statewide office. A state senator from the Portland area, Fagan joined the legislature with her 2012 election to the state House, in which she beat a Republican incumbent in a tight race. After two terms in a swingy suburban state House seat, she called it quits in 2016...only to make the jump to the state Senate in 2018 by primarying a longtime incumbent from the left in a district that did not include any of her old state house district, which would be impressive even if she hadn’t done so by a 35-percentage-point margin. (The incumbent she defeated, Rod Monroe, was a landlord who fought against tenant protections in state law; he will not be missed.) 

She then quickly established herself on the left flank of the state Senate, being one of the few Democrats to vote against SB 1049. Fagan has near-uniform support from labor unions, which combined with her elevated profile from thrashing Monroe, has allowed her to outraise and outspend her opponents by a wide margin. She’s the one to root for here, though McLeod-Skinner would also be good.

OR-SD-14: Kate Lieber vs. Dick Schouten

The two candidates running for SD-14, the rare open Senate seat, are criminal justice professor Kate Lieber and Washington County (home of the bulk of the district) Commissioner Dick Schouten. Both candidates would be broadly acceptable; they both oppose pension cuts and support quorum reform, a normally dry issue that has recently come to dominate Oregon politics as Republican senators have begun regularly leaving the state to kill progressive legislation. They also both are presenting themselves as progressives. In Schouten’s case that’s backed up by decades in his current job, where he’s generally been considered a more liberal member of the Commission, whereas Lieber is a first time candidate with the red flag of being an ex-prosecutor running for office.

Still, Lieber seems like the better choice here. She’s gotten near-universal labor support, while Schouten has the local Chamber of Commerce. Lieber’s also the more aggressive of the two when it comes to taking progressive action, while Schouten still has the Kumbaya spirit he likely developed in local government. Schouten’s floated the possibility of monitoring Republicans with tracking devices during the session to prevent walk-outs, which is the kind of wild-eyed insanity we respect, but it seems less likely to get to the heart of the problem than Lieber’s more direct proposal to fine the bastards. Schouten supports a universal basic income, which is probably the largest policy difference between them, so if that’s your thing, you might want him.

Schouten has the name recognition as a longtime official who represents most of the district, while Lieber has about a 3:1 money advantage and even more of an institutional one. She’s likely the favorite here.

OR-SD-18: Ginny Burdick (i) vs. Ben Bowman

Ginny Burdick, as the Senate Majority Leader, was instrumental for this legislation to be passed. She’s also generally regarded as a more moderate member of the Senate, even if she’s one of the state’s most prominent gun control advocates. And as a member of the Democratic Senate leadership more broadly, she is at least partly to blame for the institutional failures of Democrats this session, including allowing Republicans a veto on legislation by allowing them to walk out whenever they didn’t like a bill.

Challenger Ben Bowman, a school board member and educational consultant, supports tuition free college and preschool, as well as aggressive climate action, has the bulk of labor backing (teacher and otherwise), and who’s been willing to call for aggressive quorum reform. More than that, as a supporter of SB 1049, Burdick deserves to lose. Burdick has raised more money than Bowman, but both are strong candidates, and this should still be a close race.

OR-HD-28: Alisa Blum vs. Jacob Bride vs. Wlnsvey Campos

Incumbent Jeff Barker’s retirement leaves this suburban Portland district open, prompting a 3-way race. Jacob Bride, a young National Guardist, has a good progressive platform, but is a distinct third wheel in this election, which is realistically between homelessness case worker Wlnsvey Campos and small business owner Alisa Blum. 

Campos is one of the best candidates running for the legislature this year, supporting a free at the point-of-service single payer system, a statewide Green New Deal, and a minimum wage set to reach the cost of living, notable as Oregon is currently planning on reaching $13.50/hr in 2022 and tying it to minimum wage. Blum is running a campaign that’s mostly self-funded and her campaigning style is to say phrases like “compassion, smart policies, and efficient systems” instead of taking actual positions. Campos is by far the better choice here, and luckily she’s the one going into the election with the most financial and community support.

OR-HD-33: Serin Bussell vs. Maxine Dexter vs. Andy Saultz vs. Christina Stephenson

This is one of two actual four way races, impressive for a state with house districts that have 65,000 people. And with four candidates, you’d expect greater differences between them. All four candidates support single payer universal healthcare, rent stabilization, and aggressive climate change action. In many ways it’s a matter of approach.

Andy Saultz is the kind of candidate who will talk up his bipartisanship and wonkiness, and support of business leaders, which means he’s probably the least desirable candidate, even if his policy ideas are still quite progressive. Serin Bussell is running the most grassroots campaign, which is sort of a kind way of saying she hasn’t raised much money, but it’s also to point out that she’s been endorsed by the Portland chapters of Sunrise and Our Revolution. Maxine Dexter is a doctor whose campaign has leaned into that branding, and her general tone has been that of carefully considered policy. She supported Elizabeth Warren for president, in contrast to the Our Revolution-backed Bussell. Civil rights attorney Christina Stephenson has the most money and institutional support, but that doesn’t necessarily mean she leans establishment. Shemia Fagan is among her endorsers.

It’s anyone’s race, although Dexter and Stephenson are the most likely winners.

OR-HD-35: Keenan Casavant vs. Dacia Grayber

This, hopefully, isn’t an exciting race. Grayber is a firefighter running on a largely progressive platform with a litany of endorsements and healthy fundraising. Many are even treating her as a de facto representative now. That’s because her opponent, Keenan Casavant, is running as a conservative. He’s even a current grad student at Liberty University. It’s a pretty blatant attempt by a Republican to run in the primary of the only party which could win in November, and no one is fooled. Casavant is half-assing it, too, with no voter’s guide statement, no working campaign website, barely any interviews. Hopefully he gets the pitiful 5-10% in the primary that kind of stunt deserves.

OR-HD-36: Rob Fullmer vs. Adam Kelly Meyer vs. Lisa Reynolds vs. Laurie Wimmer

Another four way race, although thankfully we cut our workload early and say Adam Meyer probably won’t be winning. Of the other three, we’ve got a batch of three strong candidates again. Rob Fullmer is running as the most stylistically progressive, and his handful of endorsements all come from great legislators. He’s probably the best choice here, but Laurie Wimmer, a lobbyist for the National Education Association, has near-universal labor support, for obvious reasons, and also brings a lot to the race. Dr. Lisa Reynolds is fine - not a guaranteed worse choice than Fullmer or Wimmer, but probably not a better one, and less exciting.

OR-HD-42: Rob Nosse (i) vs. Paige Kreisman

Here’s the marquee race of the night, at least in the SB-1049-motivated category; young socialist and trans military veteran Paige Kreisman is taking on House Majority Whip Rob Nosse, a generally progressive longtime state representative. Kreisman, who is in her early twenties and is also a literal card-carrying Communist, is not the kind of candidate who normally gets institutional support, especially against someone as powerful as Nosse; however, Oregon labor drew a red line with SB 1049, and Nosse helped shepherd it through the state legislature. 

That’s how you get a wide array of major unions backing Kreisman, in addition to lefty groups like local DSA and Sunrise chapters: primary challenges against high-ranking Democrats are generally avoided—unless you’re looking for revenge, in which case you might even prioritize taking on the big names. And Oregon’s unions most definitely want revenge. This district is located in the heart of Portland. It’s the most Portland part of Portland. It’s the kind of place where someone like Paige Kreisman would probably have a shot even without the support of organized labor. With the support of many major unions, including the unions representing teachers, school employees, and state and local government employees, she’s a formidable threat to Nosse. If you want to know how Oregon labor’s revenge campaign is going, watch House District 42.

OR-HD-46: Jeffrey Cogen vs. Khanh Pham

This open race has a clear choice. Former Multnomah County Commissioner Jeffrey Cogen says on his website that “entrenched partisanship stands in the way of real action on climate change”. The reason that Oregon’s more ambitious climate change bills failed last session was because Senate President Peter Courtney refused to take the partisan action that was needed to reign in Republicans who were abusing quorum rules. That’s really all you need to know about Cogen’s approach to things, where the end goal is far likelier to involve “access” to “affordable” services, not anything disruptive like actually doing anything.

Khanh Pham is an activist, community organizer, and all-around fighter at the frontlines of environmental and affordable housing. She has a comprehensively progressive platform and the endorsement of every newspaper, every union, and nearly every Oregon Democrat of note. The glaring exception? Portland Mayor Ted Wheeler, who is backing Cogen. Hopefully tonight will bring a Pham landslide, but Cogen still has some name recognition from his tenure, and that will help him in such a weird election.

OR-HD-50: William Miller vs. Ricki Ruiz

This is another open district in the Portland area, and it’s another one with a less than clear choice. Ricki Ruiz, Community Services Coordinator for the city of Gresham and William Miller, Advocacy Manager with the Native American Youth and Family Center, are both young men with government experience who would bring much-needed diversity to Oregon’s very white government and are running on progressive issues. Ruiz has a fleshed out, progressive platform and his proposals to abolish ICE and give DACA recipients the right to vote caught our eye. He also has more support from labor, but, again, both of these candidates would be good legislators.

Multnomah County DA: Ethan Knight vs. Mike Schmidt

Longtime Multnomah County DA Rod Underhill is retiring this year, and only two candidates are running to replace him. Multnomah County, which includes most of Portland and some suburbs, is the state’s most populous county, and its DA has an outsized influence as the most prominent prosecutor in the state. Federal prosecutor Ethan Knight and state criminal justice official Mike Schmidt are those candidates.

Schmidt is running on the more decarceral platform, so unsurprisingly Underhill is backing Knight. Schmidt would like to end cash bail, advocate for the repeal of mandatory minimum sentencing, decline to prosecute certain cases (though he doesn’t specify which crimes he’d decline to prosecute), and provide an alternative voice in opposition to the state’s staunchly pro-incarceration district attorneys’ association. Schmidt has the support of Gov. Kate Brown, most local labor unions, and Portland’s network of progressive groups; Knight has the incumbent DA, the police union, and the firefighters’ union. While it’s not an ironclad rule, you generally shouldn’t vote for a DA candidate endorsed by the police union, and that remains true here.

Lane County DA: Patricia Perlow (i) vs. James Cleavenger

Lane County DA Patricia Perlow isn’t great. James Cleavenger, however, is a cop, and he’s not running on a platform any better than Perlow’s; when in doubt, don’t make a cop the DA.

Wasco County DA: Eric Nisley (i) vs. Matthew Ellis

Wasco County is a small, light-red county east of Portland, with most of its population in the Columbia River resort town of The Dalles. Its DA election is notable mostly because the incumbent, Eric Nisley, is awful; accused of sexual misconduct as well as abuse of power, he was temporarily suspended from practicing law in a series of decisions going all the way up to the Oregon Supreme Court. He only has one opponent, so there will be no runoff; either Nisley or his challenger, Matthew Ellis, will win. And Ellis is the superior choice. Ellis’s website says he will seek to end cash bail and shift the office’s focus away from nonviolent crime, which isn’t exactly a radical platform in a world where Chesa Boudin is DA and Tiffany Cabán came close to it, but it’s a massive improvement over a crooked sex pest.

Portland Mayor: Ted Wheeler (i) vs. Ozzie González vs. Sarah Iannarone vs. Teressa Raiford (vs. endless)

Ted Wheeler is bad (like most current mayors of major cities are) and you should be rooting for a runoff. As mayor, Wheeler has overseen the city’s piss-poor response to violent far-right rallies; at best, the city’s government is afraid of angering these violent Nazis, but one could be forgiven for thinking the city is intentionally letting them run wild. Wheeler also had to be pressured to give away tens of thousands of dollars in contributions from conservative hotel magnate and Trump impeachment background character Gordon Sondland.

If nobody gets 50%, the race will go to a runoff between the top two vote getters, and the three candidates we’ve named—Iannarone, González, and Raiford—seem like the most likely to come in second (behind Wheeler, who is expected to come in first.) Iannarone, the 2016 runner-up, is the likeliest of the bunch to do that. González, a TriMet board member, and Raiford, the founder of the anti-police brutality organization Don’t Shoot Portland, can’t be counted out either. This is a messy race, and we don’t feel comfortable telling you who to root for. We just know you should root against Wheeler.

Salem Mayor: Chuck Bennett (i) vs. Brooke Jackson

Salem Mayor Chuck Bennett is probably not in danger this year, but he should be for his unconscionable war on the homeless. Nonprofit director Brooke Johnson’s no-budget grassroots campaign is unfortunately more of a protest vote than anything, which is a shame as she’d end the city’s anti-homeless practices and fight for a greener, more equitable city.