Indiana
SD-46
Ashley Eason vs. Andrea Hunley vs. Kristin Jones vs. Bobby Kern vs. Karla Lopez Owens
SD-46 is a newly formed Senate district in Indianapolis, linking downtown to middle-class neighborhoods to its east and south. A large field has developed in response to this rare new opportunity for Democrats, much to the chagrin of the local party. Contested primaries are relatively rare in Indianapolis owing to a practice known as “slating”, where candidates pay a fee to be considered for a party endorsement, and agree to drop out if they lose. This year, the Indiana Black Legislative Caucus has alleged that the slating process is rigged by local party bosses, and are boycotting it until the state party intervenes. It’s turned into a major rift in the local party. All of the candidates in this race except city councilor Kristin Jones declined to compete for the party’s endorsement. Naturally, she received that, though it’s an open question whether lacking any competition actually changed her odds of getting it. Labor supports Jones, who has also raised the most money. She’s the favorite here, but she does have 3 opponents running competent campaigns.
There’s Ashley Eason, the nominee for partially-overlapping SD-36 in 2020. Her main pitch, which she details extensively on her website, is that she’ll work hard to grow the strength of Democrats as a senator, but she has less to say policy-wise. Then there’s public school principal Andrea Hunley, who’s running a surprisingly well-funded campaign. Hunley has the support of state Rep. Robin Shackleford, whose district overlaps much of SD-46. Finally, Karla Lopez Owens is running the most overtly progressive campaign, but doing so on the smallest budget. She has a promising history on the Marion County Citizens' Police Complaint Board and working with the Innocence Project, but she recently took a job with the prosecutor’s office.
With this many non-party endorsed candidates, it’s going to be hard for any to consolidate enough votes to win, but if one of them does, it would be a major blow to the current party bosses.
HD-82
Kyle Miller vs. Melissa Rinehart vs. Kathy Zoucha
For reasons unknown, Indiana Republicans decided to cede Democrats a second district in Fort Wayne. The race appears to be between Kyle Miller, the nominee for HD-81 in 2018 and 2020, and local nonprofit director Melissa Rinehart, but Kathy Zoucha, the nominee for HD-85 in 2016 and SD-15 in 2018, is also in the race. Miller’s largest donor? The Indiana Chamber of Commerce’s PAC, which is enough for us to root against him.
Massachusetts
Boston City Council Ward 1
Gabriela “Gigi” Coletta vs. Tania Del Rio
Try as one might, it’s hard to find a clear divide between Gabriela “Gigi” Coletta and Tania Del Rio. Both are Latina progressives from East Boston with support from notable progressive elected officials. Coletta is the former chief of staff to progressive Councilor Lydia Edwards, who vacated this seat after winning a special election to the state Senate and is backing Coletta to succeed her; Del Rio is a community activist backed by another notable Boston progressive, At-Large Councilor Julia Mejia. Coletta has more money and a more establishment-leaning list of endorsers.
Ohio
OH-11
Shontel Brown (i) vs. Nina Turner
And so we return to Cleveland, months after what was in many ways an idiosyncratic local race initially fought over factional differences in the Cuyahoga County Democratic Party became a money pit and Battle For The Future Of The Democratic Party. Nina Turner lost that race (which was winnable, but we’re not going to sit here and relitigate every decision that campaign made) and immediately began planning a rematch with Shontel Brown. Much about this race remains the same, but there have been some changes.
In favor of Turner:
A more progressive district: OH-11 may have shed the Turner-won city of Akron, but it also lost pro-Brown suburbs, and gained progressive-friendly West Cleveland and Lakewood. On net, it’s a better district for a candidate like Turner.
A competitive GOP primary: in the special election a few thousand voters who normally vote in GOP primaries showed up to the Democratic primary, and based on where they voted they clearly went for Brown. With the chance to decide Ohio’s next senator being found in the GOP primary, their presence in this race is unlikely
Weakened Biden: the most effective line of attack against Turner were her comments insulting Joe Biden. But the special was held in summer 2021, at the height of optimism for Biden’s presidency. Months later, with intraparty approval slipping, or just generally muted, those comments may be less off-putting to voters.
In favor of Brown:
Incumbency: it’s harder to beat an incumbent. Voters often think of the race in terms of whether the incumbent “deserves” reelection, not who the better candidate is, and Brown hasn’t made any major mistakes
Candidate money: unlike in the special when Turner was buoyed by a massive fundraising operation, this time around it’s Brown who leads in the cash race.
Outside money: Shontel Brown has been the beneficiary of over $1 million in outside help from DMFI and Protect Our Future each, plus another few hundred thousand from the newly formed Mainstream Democrats PAC. While that's less than was spent in the special, Turner, who had previously been backed up by multiple progressive groups to the tune of millions, now has only a low six figure digital campaign from Cenk Uyghur's Rebellion PAC.
National consensus: while Brown did have a few DC Democrats boosting her last year, her main advocates were Cuyahoga County politicians. This election, she has the endorsement of not only US Sen. Sherrod Brown, but Joe Biden as well (announced this week). She even managed to get the Congressional Progressive Caucus—which backed Turner in the special, but which Brown joined upon entering Congress—on the reasoning that she’s a member of the CPC in good standing. (The fact that she hasn’t been a member long enough to establish good standing in the form of any sort of voting record apparently did not dissuade them.) It's a much stronger signal from the party as to who they prefer.
The electorate is going to be better for Turner, to the extent that if Turner is able to hold onto everyone who voted for her in the special, she'll win. Of course, conditions have changed too much for that to actually be possible. National groups are behaving like they think Brown is going to win, but Brown’s allies evidently don't think the race is totally over—they wouldn't be spending millions attacking a candidate they were sure was going to lose. For that matter, many progressives think Turner has a chance. AOC issued a last-minute endorsement of Turner last night and blasted a fundraising appeal out to her email list—the kind of public rebuke of both Biden and CPC Chair Pramila Jayapal that we doubt she’d make on a whim.
Tennessee
Davidson County District Attorney
Glenn Funk (i) vs. Sara Beth Myers vs. P. Danielle Nellis
Glenn Funk, then a private defense attorney, was first elected in 2014 on a campaign platform of addressing domestic violence, and won with a wide majority of the Black vote. He has since been far above average for a Southern DA, though that’s hardly a high bar to clear. He’s reduced the jail population, established the state’s only conviction integrity unit, stopped marijuana prosecutions, and generally declined to enforce the wackier laws coming out of the state’s right-wing legislature despite GOP efforts to force his hand. But while Funk has made admirable strides, he’s squeamish about prosecuting cops, still seeks cash bail, and recently caused national uproar with the highly unusual prosecution of a nurse over a medical mistake.
Sara Beth Myers is a career prosecutor who claims she can implement Funk’s changes more effectively, but she’s supported by top members of the police union, so it’s safe to say that’s all bullshit. Danielle Nellis is a former defense lawyer who joined the DA’s office after Funk’s win, but left a few years later after finding resistance to the changes she was proposing; those changes form the basis of her policy platform, now in the form of an 18-page document. Nellis, who would be Nashville’s first Black DA, has found some purchase among Black activists and lawyers, but is woefully underfunded compared to Funk and Myers. Nellis emphasizes the economic and social roots over crime, and is clearly presenting herself as the most progressive option in the race, but is offering few concrete changes she’d make compared to Funk. A Nellis win would be nice, but Funk would be tolerable too, just so long as Myers loses.