March 17 Primary Preview
That is if we're even having elections today
Nobody should have to vote in person during a global pandemic and risk contracting COVID-19. Unfortunately, four (update: three) states are doing just that today--Florida, Arizona, Illinois, and Ohio. The latter two are holding not only presidential primaries, but downballot primaries as well. That’s what we cover, so as always, here’s our preview; with that said, we shouldn’t be writing this. If you have to vote tomorrow, bring Clorox wipes into the voting booth with you or something.
Illinois
IL-01: Rep. Bobby Rush vs. Robert Emmons, Jr. vs. Sarah Gad
Bobby Rush, once a radical and co-founder of a Black Panther chapter, won this district in 1992,, and has gradually aged out of his youthful energy. And his middle-age energy. All energy, really. Twenty years after he vigorously campaigned against upstart primary challenger state Sen. Barack Obama, he’s not interested in doing much this year, providing a potential opening for a progressive challenger. Still, Rush remains well-liked, getting 71% of the vote in his last primary, in 2016.
It wouldn’t be surprising, then, to see Rush fall below 50% this year. Unfortunately, the presence of three candidates instead of one pretty much precludes the possibility of Rush losing. Robert Emmons, a gun violence advocate, has the bulk of the grassroots support, from Our Revolution to the Sunrise Movement, to Indivisible Southside. He also gained a surprising endorsement from the Chicago Tribune. What he doesn’t have is much money or any amount of establishment backing. Sara Gad, a law student and addiction advocate, is the next-most prominent candidate. As a more moderate candidate than Emmons, she struggled to attract grassroots groups. Ameena Matthews, a community activist, is also running.
IL-03: Rep. Dan Lipinski vs. Marie Newman vs. Rush Darwish vs. Charles Hughes
If you’re reading this, you’re familiar with this race. There honestly isn’t too much more to say at this point. Dan Lipinski holds extreme right-wing views on abortion, and he has never been shy about them, be it in his voting record or his frequent appearances at the March for Life. Marie Newman, a nonprofit director, is running not just as referendum on Lipinski’s record on choice and gay rights, but also as a Justice Democrats-endorsed progressive, who has taken heat from Lipinski for her support of Medicare for All, and fiercely stuck by it.
It’s hard to guess what’s going to happen this time around. On one hand you have Newman’s earlier start and better fundraising, but on the other, you have Lipinski taking this race more seriously than last time. In 2018, Lipinski’s narrow win wouldn’t have been possible without Republicans crossing over to vote for conservative Lipinski. How many of them will show up this time around? And finally, the presence of Rush Darwish and Charles Hughes on the ballot will draw away votes, but how many?
IL-07: Rep. Danny K. Davis vs. Anthony Clark vs. Kina Collins vs. Kristine Schanbacher
IL-07 mirrors IL-01 in more than a few ways. It’s a black-majority Chicago-area Congressional district with a longtime incumbent representative who’s lost a few steps in recent years. And that incumbent, Danny Davis in this case, was never in any immediate danger because of the split field of his opponents. Kina Collins and Anthony Davis are both running grassroots leftist campaigns, but are both severely under-resourced. Clark ran in 2018 and lost 74-26. A wildcard challenger is Kristine Shanbacher, a moderate who has self-funded much of her campaign. If she has appeal it’s going to be in the western portion of the district, in the whiter suburbs.
IL-11: Rep. Bill Foster vs. Will County Board member Rachel Ventura
This is a race that never really came together. Ventura has a few grassroots groups and some small unions on her side, but she raised almost no money (about $62,000), and Foster, a more energetic and well-liked politician than some on this list, made sure to actively campaign and doesn’t appear to be in any real danger. Still, the margin he gets tonight will matter in attracting or discouraging a primary challenger after what look to be some big changes in the 2021 redistricting.
IL-HD-16: State Rep. Yehiel Mark Kalish vs. Kevin Olickal vs. Denyse Wang Stoneback
Rep. Lou Lang, friendly with the party’s machine, pulled a familiar maneuver in January 2019: he waited until he was almost sworn in, then resigned, allowing the local committees to select his replacement without an election, which, coincidentally, includes him as chair of the Niles Township Democratic Committee, a committee that has 52% of the vote in the process. He had sole discretion in choosing his successor in other words. For unclear reasons, he went with lobbyist and Orthodox rabbi Yehiel Kalish, who only a few months into his tenure opposed the Reproductive Rights Act.
Lang, bitter about that vote, wanted someone to primary Kalish, and in his capacity as Niles Township Democratic Chair interviewed 14 potential candidates for an endorsement, before settling on Denyse Wang Stoneback, a gun violence prevention advocate. Unions and some more establishment groups, sensing her as the likely primary winner, followed Lang in endorsing. A later entrant to the race was Kevin Olickal, a 27 year-old Indian-American running on an progressive platform of Medicare for all and a tuition-free state university system. Olickal has been endorsed by a handful of local politicians and while he has neither incumbency nor powerful endorsements, he could do very well. His winning would be the best result, but either candidate beating Kalish (who seems on his way to defeat) would be an improvement.
Cook County State’s Attorney: State’s Attorney Kim Foxx vs. Bill Conway vs. Donna More vs. Bob Fioretti
In 2016, progressive Kim Foxx unseated incumbent Anita Alvarez for the position of State’s Attorney, the Illinois term for county prosecutor. She immediately earned a target on her back for her desire to hold police officers to account and embrace Kranser-style reform approaches in the county. Her enemies were waiting for her to slip up from day one, and she finally did when her office botched the response to the hoax/not hoax Jussie Smollett case. It is, in the grand scheme of things, a fairly minor case, but one that attracted a lot of attention both for its sensational nature, and from the kind of people who suspect most hate crimes are faked.
Bill Conway is her main competition, a traditional prosecutor with access to unlimited money through his billionaire father. While Foxx has the support of Governor J.B. Pritzker, Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren, her local support can be hit and miss, with many more conservative town and ward organizations favoring Conway. Two recent polls found Foxx ahead, one up 26-24 and another up 36-20, with both polls showing undecideds in the 30s.
Donna More, who ran in 2016 and took 13% of the vote, is ideologically in between Foxx and Conway, and exists as something of a protest vote. Bob Fioretti is an ex-alderman who mounted serious runs for Chicago mayor in 2015 and Cook County Board President in 2018 but is now just running for things for the hell of it and will likely only get a couple percent of the vote.
Peoria County State’s Attorney: State’s Attorney Jodi Hoos vs. Chris McCall
Jodi Hoos, a status-quo prosecutor, was appointed to the job of State’s Attorney seven months ago, and is seeing a spirited challenge from defense attorney Chris McCall, who is looking to use the office to break the cycle of intergenerational poverty.
Illinois Supreme Court-Cook County: Justice P. Scott Neville vs. Nathaniel Howse vs. Cynthia Cobbs vs. Daniel Epstein vs. Shelly Harris vs. Margaret McBride vs. Jesse Reyes
Illinois has a very strange system to elect its Supreme Court. The Justices are elected to 10 year terms from districts, and every term after the first is a simple retention election, which Justices almost win. The Cook County district elects three Justices. This year is the rare open seat election, with seven candidates vying for the spot. Scott Neville is the incumbent by appointment after the resignation of the previous incumbent. Of the field of seven contenders, only one, Daniel Epstein, is promising criminal justice reform.
Ohio
Ohio isn’t having its primary today after all. Probably.