General Election 2024 Preview Part III

Oregon and Washington

Oregon

Portland

Mayor

Rene Gonzalez vs. Mingus Mapps vs. Liv Osthus vs. Carmen Rubio vs. Keith Wilson vs. others

Round 1: Wilson 40.3%, Rubio 26.5%, Gonzalez 21.3%, Mapps 15.3%, Osthus 7.8% | Round 19: Wilson 59.2%, Rubio 40.8% | Wilson wins

This will be the first Portland mayoral election to use ranked-choice voting, which would have been really nice in 2020 when that would’ve elected a progressive mayor. As it is, four candidates have risen to the top of the Portland mayoral field.

Starting on the right, we have Rene Gonzalez, a Portland City Commissioner elected in the city’s right-leaning 2022 election cycle. Gonzalez came into office on crime fearmongering and little else, and that’s what his mayoral campaign has consisted of. The headline most voters will see in the closing days of the election might be this story about how Gonzalez broke the law by using taxpayer money to edit his Wikipedia page, which is not the closing pitch you want.

Also on the right, but slightly less so than Gonzalez, is his colleague Mingus Mapps. Mapps is, make no mistake, part of the same conservative/moderate council majority as Gonzalez, but he’s not as bad as Gonzalez, and he’s consequently lost a lot of the traditional moderate endorsements to Gonzalez–the police and firefighters’ unions and business PACs are backing Gonzalez, not Mapps.

Somewhere in between Mapps and the next candidate is Keith Wilson, a quirky nonprofit founder and trucking industry executive. His policies are mostly progressive and urbanist, with a focus on transit; the one big red flag is his railing against drug decriminalization.

Just for fun, stripper Liv Osthus, aka Viva Las Vegas, is adding a performer’s flair to the race. She’ll probably be eliminated fairly early on in RCV, but, hey, that’s fun, we like when colorful characters run for office.

Finally, progressives have their candidate in Portland City Commissioner Carmen Rubio. Most of organized labor, the Oregon WFP, and Gov. Tina Kotek have thrown their support to Rubio.

We could see any of these candidates except Osthus winning election as mayor of Portland, honestly, but the frontrunner is probably Gonzalez and the best hope is Rubio.

Council

Believe us, we do take it as a positive that Portland is scrapping its old system of at-large commissioner seats, but did the replacement have to be so complicated? The new council will be elected via four districts, with each district electing three candidate, on the same ballot, using the single transferable vote system from a top 6 ranking by voters. We’re going to say who the moderates (United for Portland) and progressives (Portland for All) want and move on.

District 1

Winners: Avalos, Smith, Jamie Dunphy

United for Portland: Noah Ernst, Terrence Hayes, Loretta Smith

Portland for All: Candace Avalos, Timur Ender, Steph Routh

District 2

Winners: Ryan, Kanal, Pirtle-Guiney

United for Portland: James Armstrong, Mariah Hudson, Tiffani Penson, Dan Ryan, Bob Simril

Portland for All: Michelle DePass, Marnie Glickman, Sameer Kanal, Debbie Kitchin, Nast West

Both: Elana Pirtle-Guiney

District 3

Winners: Novick, Koyama Lane, Morillo

United for Portland: Rex Burkholder, Jesse Cornett, Daniel DeMelo, Steve Novick, Kezia Wanner

Portland for All: Chris Flanary, Tiffany Koyama Lane, Angelita Morillo, Ahlam Osman, Luke Zak

District 4

Winners: Clark, Green, Zimmerman

United for Portland: Eli Arnold, Olivia Clark, Ben Hufford, Tony Morse, Stan Penkin, Eric Zimmerman

Portland for All: Lisa Freeman, Mitch Green, Chad Lykins, Sarah Silkie

Washington

All block quotes are from our August preview unless otherwise indicated.

WA-09 (Seattle and southern suburbs)

Adam Smith (i) vs. Melissa Chaudhry

Round 1: Smith 53.8%, Chaudhry 20.7%

Result (>95% in): Smith 65.5%, Chaudhry 32.1% | Smith wins

Rep. Adam Smith will win another term, but, as in 2018, he was weak enough in the primary for another Democrat, progressive Melissa Chaudhry, to make the November election instead of a Republican. Smith has never faced a progressive with the resources and backing to give him a real challenge, but how well Chaudhry does with her limited budget may still augur the prospects of a future challenge. Chaudhry is a mixture of pro-Palestinian candidate and deficit hawk who has collected the usual lefty endorsement list in the Seattle area, as well as four official Democratic legislative district caucuses, and progressive state Sen. Yasmin Trudeau. The big number to watch is 32.1%. That’s what Sarah Smith, the socialist who ran against Adam Smith in 2018, pulled in the November election that year.

Superintendent of Public Instruction

Chris Reykdal (i) vs. David Olson

Result (>95% in): Reykdal 52.85%, Olson 46.5% | Reykdal wins

Round 1: Reykdal 39.3%, Olson 31.2%

Uncontroversial liberal incumbent Chris Reykdal survived a challenge from well-funded charter school-adjacent tech guy Reid Saaris in August, with Saaris placing third. As his reward, Reykdal gets an easy general election against open right-winger David Olson, a member of the Gig Harbor school board.

Supreme Court, Position 2

Sal Mungia vs. David Larson

Round 1: Mungia 43.4%, Larson 36.5%

Result (>95% in): Mungia 50.1%, Larson 49.4% | Too close to call

It’s important that liberal Sal Mungia defeats conservative David Larson and keeps the state Supreme Court’s liberal majority at full strength. Thankfully, Larson is running openly as a conservative, so the Democratic lean of Washington should kick in and get Mungia over the finish line.

LD-22 (Olympia)

Senate: Jessica Bateman vs. Bob Iyall

Round 1: Bateman 68.3%, Iyall 20.5%

Result (>95% in): Bateman 70.55%, Iyall 27.4% | Bateman wins

State Rep. Jessica Bateman is a lock for Olympia’s state Senate seat. Nisqually tribal elder Bob Iyall made the runoff, but Bateman’s first-round supermajority should hold.

House, Position 2: Lisa Parshley vs. Syd Locke

Round 1: Parshley 63.05%, Locke 33.5%

Result (>95% in): Parshley 62.5%, Locke 34.7% | Parshley wins

Olympia City Councilor Lisa Parshley is likewise a pretty safe bet for Bateman’s open House seat, but socialist state legislative staffer Syd Locke came closer than Iyall did to Bateman; if nothing else, his performance can serve as a gauge of how left-wing Olympia is.

LD-27 (Tacoma)

House, Position 2: Jake Fey (i) vs. Devin Rydel Kelly

Round 1: Fey 70.2%, Kelly 26.95%

Result (>95% in): Fey 76.0%, Kelly 22.2% | Fey wins

This election is another beauty pageant primary—only incumbent Jake Fey and progressive/socialist challenger Devin Rydel Kelly are on the ballot, meaning they will both advance to November, and the only value of the results here will be letting us know how the race is going.

The results in August let us know that centrist Democrat Jake Fey is an overwhelming favorite for another term, as cool as Devin Rydel Kelly may seem.

LD-29 (Tacoma and suburbs)

House, Position 1: Melanie Morgan (i) vs. Richard Miller

Round 1: Morgan 67.5%, Miller 26.9%

Result (>95% in): Morgan 68.7%, Miller 28.2% | Morgan wins

This is also a beauty pageant primary, this time between staff-abusing incumbent Melanie Morgan, and Richard Miller, a realtor who promises to not do that.

Well, those are your choices. An incumbent who collects ethics investigations like trophies and…some realtor. Miller does have endorsements from a number of local politicians, but it’s very hard to see him coming back from that Round 1 performance.

LD-38 (Everett)

House, Position 1: Julio Cortes (i) vs. Annie Fitzgerald

Round 1: Cortes 61.1%, Fitzgerald 20.0%

Result (>95% in): Cortes 71.1%, Fitzgerald 25.5% | Cortes wins

Progressive state Rep. Julio Cortes faces no-budget challengers Annie Fitzgerald and Bryce Nickel, who each also position themselves on the left but lack the resources to pose a threat to Cortes.

Fitzgerald won the runoff spot, and the fundamentals of this race haven’t changed at all since August.

LD-43 (Central Seattle)

House, Position 2: Shaun Scott vs. Andrea Suarez

Round 1: Scott 59.1%, Suarez 20.2%

Result (>95% in): Scott 68.5%, Suarez 30.7% | Scott wins

Five years after narrowly losing a Seattle City Council seat to moderate Alex Pedersen, socialist activist Shaun Scott is back in the electoral arena, and this time he looks like a solid favorite. [...] His main opponent is obvious right-winger Andrea Suarez, who is fundraising well but faces the likely insurmountable obstacle of pretty obviously being a Republican in all but name. 

With a 59-20 blowout for Scott, the first round proved that he’s a solid favorite, but the moderate faction of Seattle isn’t entirely willing to let this one go. Famously left-hating newspaper The Seattle Times has endorsed Juarez, and the building trades unions are working to elect her as well.

LD-45 (Eastern Seattle suburbs)

House, Position 2: Larry Springer (i) vs. Melissa Demyan

Round 1: Springer 49.3%, Demyan 47.9%

Result (>95% in): Springer 55.7%, Demyan 42.1% | Springer wins

This beauty pageant primary pits moderate charter school supporter Larry Springer against Melissa Demyan, who was endorsed by the King County Democrats, likely as a result of them finally having enough of his shit after 20 years.

The primary showed us a dead heat between Springer and Demyan, confirming that this is Washington’s marquee Dem-on-Dem race of 2024. Demyan, a union organizer with the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, has amassed a coalition that includes not only Democratic Party organs but also Planned Parenthood’s political arm and most of organized labor, even including the generally conservative building trades. Springer isn’t without important supporters of his own—the Seattle Times, with the headline “the Legislature needs moderates,” endorsed Springer over Demyan; a lot of local officials and some labor unions are sticking by their longtime legislator as well. It’s clear to both sides of this race that the progressive Demyan has a chance at unseating the moderate Springer.

Seattle Council At-Large Pos. 8 (special election)

Tanya Woo (i) vs. Alexis Mercedes Rinck

Round 1: Rinck 50.2%, Woo 38.4%

Result (>95% in): Rinck 58.2%, Woo 41.4% | Rinck wins

Tanya Woo was last seen losing an unexpectedly close race to progressive District 2 councilor Tammy Morales in 2023. The founder of the Chinatown-International District Community Watch impressed Seattle’s dominant moderate faction so much that when progressive at-large city councilor Teresa Mosqueda won a seat on the King County Council, the moderates on the Seattle City Council chose to appoint Woo to the vacant at-large seat. Woo, a business owner, is a moderate through and through, and eventually opted to recuse herself from a vote on rescinding the city’s minimum wage for gig workers after the city’s ethics director advised her that her father-in-law’s ownership of a restaurant which contracted with app-based gig work delivery companies created a conflict of interest. Progressives are still sore over Woo’s appointment and their rough 2023 cycle more generally, and they see Alexis Mercedes Rinck as their best shot at beginning to rebuild the council’s once-powerful progressive bloc. [...] Rinck is the only one who commits to progressive tax hikes to avoid cutting city services, and she’s the only one with widespread support from progressive Seattle politicians and organizations, including a handful of labor unions evidently dissatisfied with Woo.

Well, Alexis Mercedes Rinck did more than just hold the incumbent below 50%—she cleared 50% herself, as the challenger. She’s also kept even with Woo financially, including outside spending—one of Seattle progressives’ own PACs, Progressive People Power PAC, has been spending enough to counter PAC spending from the state realtors’ association and other business interests. And a late poll from Change Research for the Rinck-supporting Northwest Progressive Institute finds the challenger leading Woo 52%-28%. It’s hard to see Woo coming back from all of this—which means Seattle progressives, who have had a rough couple of election cycles, should be able to claw back this council seat.