9/1 Primary Preview

it's just Massachusetts

Most states are already in the general election phase of the campaign, but a few stragglers hold September primaries. First up is Massachusetts.

Governor’s Council

2nd District (Southwest Boston suburbs)

Tamisha Civil vs. Muriel Kramer vs. Sean Murphy vs. David Reservitz

The Governor’s Council, a body that currently only exists in New Hampshire and Massachusetts, exists only to confirm gubernatorial appointments and pardons, tasks that most state governments in the last 300 years have delegated to their senates. While there briefly was a movement to elect new blood in hopes of making the all-Democratic body less of a rubber stamp for Republican governor Charlie Baker, with the election of Democrat Maura Healey, people have mostly gone back to forgetting it exists. 

Victim's Witness Advocate in Suffolk Superior Court Tamisha Civil has been on our preview twice before, as the progressive challenger to state Rep. William Galvin, one of the most conservative Democrats in the legislature. We’re a bit concerned about giving someone with a background in probation and the DA’s office power over pardons, commutations, and judgeships, but she at least has the kind of political history that suggests anything other than using the office to passively accept whatever the governor does.  

Social worker Muriel Kramer may be running for state office for the first time after decades in local Hopkinton (pop. 19,000) politics, but she’s earned one very powerful ally during that time: Senate Majority Leader Karen Spilka, who is also Kramer's local state senator. Kramer is framing her campaign in criminal justice terms, and Spilka, author of some significant pieces of criminal justice reform legislation, lends Kramer credibility on the issue. 

Attorneys Sean Murphy and David Reservitz are the less promising options. Both are practicing civil attorneys who have some vague statements about experience and fairness as reasons they should be elected. Reservitz, who has lapped the field in fundraising (a comparatively large $133K to Civil’s $48K, Murphy’s $36K, and Kramer’s $8K) and previously served on then-Gov. Deval Patrick’s Judicial Nominating Commision, is a mild favorite, while Murphy, who served time for dealing oxycodone before entering a career in law, isn’t. 

3rd District (Western Boston suburbs)

Marilyn Petitto Devaney (i) vs. Mara Dolan 

If you want to understand the power of inertia in Governor’s Council races, look no further than Marilyn Petitto Devaney, who has, across multiple decades in office, assaulted store clerks, rifled through other people’s mail, and flat out faked endorsements, the last of which she did during her 2022 primary campaign. And she still won reelection over public defender Mara Dolan 60%-40%. Dolan has substantial ground to close in her rematch this year, but she is being taken a lot more seriously this year by the state establishment, and has picked up the Boston Globe’s endorsement. Conversely, Petitto Devaney seems to think she’s bulletproof, and honestly being the deciding vote to confirm an anti-choice judge in July of 2022 and winning by 20% a few months later, it’s not hard to see where she gets the idea. Her biggest endorsement is, tellingly, very-recently-no-longer-anti-choice Congressmember Stephen Lynch.

4th District (Boston and South Shore)

Christopher Iannella (i) vs. Stacey Borden vs. Ronald Iacobucci

The final Governor’s Council race is a straightforward progressive vs. moderate battle. Prison abolitionist and nonprofit leader Stacey Borden is running an expressly progressive campaign: her website showcases pictures of her with the Squad, and she’s been touting her endorsement from Rep. Ayanna Pressley, who represents about half of the district in Congress, as much as humanly possible. Borden is much more willing to reject judicial appointments if it means tilting the balance of the courts away from ex-prosecutors and corporate attorneys, an approach utterly rejected by the incumbent, who only cares about, in his words, “temperament”. Christopher Iannella Jr., son of legendary Boston City Councilmember Christopher Iannella Sr, has been on the Governor’s Council for 30 years, and spent that entire time as a rubber stamp, though one of the few times he broke with the consensus was in a nearly successful effort to block a nominee at the behest of gun groups. Borden has done very well for herself among progressive Boston groups, but unfortunately this district also has the historically conservative neighborhood of South Boston and the city’s most conservative suburbs, the same combination that makes Rep. Stephen Lynch so hard to dislodge.

State Senate

1st Suffolk (Boston - South End, Southie, and Dorchester)

Nick Collins (i) vs. Juwan Skeens

Nick Collins can’t last in the Senate forever. An old school conservative Southie-ite like him isn’t going to be able to hold down a majority-minority district forever, even if he did get his colleagues to make his district significantly less Black when they redrew the lines in 2022. Still, 2020 was the best year to do it, and that year, the competent but underfunded campaign from Samuel Pierce went down 74%-26%. This year, with a district that presents even more of a challenge, another Democrat is challenging Collins: entrepreneur Juwan Skeens, who mixes many progressive policy ideas with some weird vibes (his issues page begins with the federal debt clock, for some reason). Skeens, despite being a former staffer to Councilmember Andrea Campbell (and therefore someone who should know people in politics), has essentially failed to fundraise anything.

2nd Bristol and Plymouth (New Bedford area)

Mark Montigny (i) vs. Molly Kivi

Mark Montigny has been in the Senate for over 30 years and has done absolutely nothing of note in that time. He’s a terminal backbencher, sitting around and collecting checks for chairing committees that don’t exist. The political culture of New Bedford is stodgy and moderate, even by Massachusetts standards, and Montingy may just be the kind of politician they like. We’re happy that Molly Kivi is at least willing to test that idea by running a campaign promising to be more responsive and open, even if she’s doing it on a budget of nothing but $2,000 she loaned herself. 

Hampden (Springfield and Chicopee)

Adam Gomez (i) vs. Malo Brown

Adam Gomez was one of the few 2020 down ballot progressive victories in Massachusetts, unseating moderate James Welch by a 5% margin. Since then, the district theoretically became even more Gomnez-friendly by dropping the suburb of West Springfield, in exchange for all but a few precincts of Springfield proper, which Gomez, a former Springfield Councilmember, won by 29% in that initial election. It may have, however, opened him up to the vagaries of Springfield’s political scene. Councilmember Malo Brown is challenging Gomez, citing most commonly his record on the Springfield Council, where Gomez championed police defunding, citizen oversight boards, and, most objectionable of all to Brown, the rejection of a potential police chief who was resistant to reform efforts. 

Brown is bolstered by tens of thousands of dollars in local business and cop cash, and flanked on his campaign literature by Springfield Mayor Domenic Sarno and state Rep. Bud Williams. Sarno and Williams are both blights on the city’s politics, conservatives with absurdly long careers representing different moderate branches of local interests. Williams, who is anti-choice, is facing a primary challenge of his own this year. This campaign has gotten nasty, and Gomez has made some mistakes that make him more vulnerable than he should be (Hooters as a campaign expense? Come on, man).

Norfolk, Plymouth, and Bristol (Southern Boston suburbs)

Erin Bradley vs. Kathleen Crogan-Camara vs. William Driscoll Jr.

This district is part of those “most conservative Boston suburbs” we mentioned in the 4th Governor’s Council primary above, so our hopes aren’t set the highest here, but we’re still excited, because Walter Timilty, and by extension the whole Timilty dynasty, is finally gone. Timilty was a conservative so out of step with the state that registered nurse Kathleen Crogan-Camara held him to a 60%-40% victory in 2022. Crogan-Camara, a progressive who bills herself as “a different kind of Democrat” may very well have missed her moment—her campaign is getting a lot less traction now that there’s no Timilty to run against—but with name recognition in a three-way race is still a serious contender. Progressive groups and organized labor instead seem to like Erin Bradley, probably because she was a legislative analyst for Senate President Karen Spilka, the closest thing progressives have to an ally in state government. The odds-on favorite is, unfortunately, state Rep. William Driscoll Jr., and unremarkable moderate who has lapped the field in fundraising and has the support of Rep. Stephen Lynch, building trades unions, and a collection of state lawmakers. He already represents the Boston-adjacent northern edge of the district, and should win heavily in the more conservative southern towns, which would make him tough to beat even if progressives weren’t splitting the vote.

State House

Barnstable, Dukes, and Nantucket (Martha’s Vineyard, Nantucket, and Cape Cod)

Arielle Faria vs. Thomas Moakley

Local ADA Thomas Moakley has the right last name for a career in Massachusetts politics; his great-uncle was longtime Southeastern Mass congressman Joe Moakley. He also has a generally progressive platform, though he sounds squishy on housing (he’s skeptical of rent control and seems a little too wedded to local control over zoning—the status quo which has fueled the nation’s housing crisis) as well as criminal justice. Outgoing state Rep. Dylan Fernandes, local law enforcement leaders, and officials in Moakley’s hometown of Falmouth back Moakley, but as you might have guessed from the law enforcement bit, Moakley is not the progressive favorite here. That would be affordable housing manager Arielle Faria, who has progressive groups, Planned Parenthood Action Fund, and a number of unions in her corner (mostly SEIU chapters, as well as the American Federation of Teachers.) Faria, who lives and works on Martha’s Vineyard, is focused on housing affordability and climate change, where she embraces progressive stances across the board (also true of every other platform plank of hers.) Moakley has a modest but meaningful financial advantage over Faria.

3rd Berkshire (The Berkshires)

Leigh Davis vs. Jamie Minacci vs. Patrick White

Three local town councilors (called select board members because New England refuses to abide by the normal nomenclature of American local government) are running for the Democratic nomination for the seat being vacated by longtime state Rep. Smitty Pignatelli. (Pour one out for one of the best names in politics.) One, Stockbridge’s Jamie Minacci, lags badly in fundraising and will likely finish in third place, behind her Stockbridge colleague Patrick White and Great Barrington’s Leigh Davis. Both Davis and White cast themselves as staunch progressives and generally agree on the issues, whether it’s local issues (for example, regulating short-term rentals in this tourism-dependent district), statewide issues (for example, both want to hike taxes on the rich and make the Massachusetts legislature more transparent), or their views of the outgoing incumbent (both cite Pignatelli as a role model.) Progressive groups and organized labor favor Davis, who has been a member of various unions throughout her career; Davis and White are roughly evenly matched financially.

11th Essex (North Shore - Lynn and Nahant)

Hong Net vs. Sean Reid

Two local officials in the city of Lynn are running for the seat being left behind by state Rep. Peter Capano. The frontrunner is probably Lynn School Committee member Sean Reid, also the legislative director for state Sen. Brendan Crighton; Reid has the support of much of organized labor and also has a significant financial advantage. However, Lynn City Councilor Hong Net can’t be counted out: Net has some organizational support of his own from SEIU branches, and presumably greater name recognition from a longer career in Lynn politics. Net is clearly running as a progressive, while Reid is vague on the issues and skipped Progressive Mass’s detailed questionnaire. Net, a Cambodian refugee, may also be able to count on Lynn’s significant Cambodian-American community for support at the polls.

16th Essex (Lawrence and Methuen)

Francisco Paulino (i) vs. Marcos Devers

Last cycle, Francisco Paulino unseated backbencher Marcos Devers with the help of Lawrence Mayor Brian DePeña. Since then, the two of them have had a dramatic falling out for reasons only unbeknownst to them, which has inspired DePeña to campaign for the man he helped remove from the legislature: Marcos Devers. At the time, we said that the close involvement of DePeña, a business-aligned moderate, was a good reason to vote against his candidate. Now that he’s played both sides, we’re less sure. With the contest now falling mostly along the lines of personal relationships and local politics—the charter school lobby, who helped finance Paulino in 2022, isn’t bothering this time—the victor may simply not matter that much.

11th Hampden (Springfield)

Bud Williams (i) vs. Johnnie McKnight

Like the Hampden Senate contest above, this is a Springfield factional battle. Incumbent Bud Williams is backing Malo Brown’s challenge to progressive state Sen. Adam Gomez, while middle school teacher Johnnie McKnight previously managed Gomez’s campaign and ran against Williams ally Domenic Sarno for mayor of Springfield in 2015. McKnight is seeking to make abortion a central issue in this campaign, and it’s obvious why: Williams is shaky on abortion. While the incumbent claims to be pro-choice, he’s voted against multiple landmark bills expanding abortion access. Williams unfortunately has a massive financial advantage over McKnight as of July 31, though whether he actually used it in the home stretch is something we’ll only find out after the primary. Williams survived a challenge from union organizer Jynai McDonald (now Gomez’s campaign manager) 64%-36% in 2022, and that’s the benchmark tonight.

5th Middlesex (Western Boston suburbs - Natick)

David Linsky (i) vs. Jaymin Patel

Small businessman Jaymin Patel ran against unremarkable liberal David Linsky in 2020, losing by nearly 60 points. While Patel narrowly outspent Linsky over the summer, when you’ve already lost 80-20 it’s hard to come back from that. Not helping matters is the fact that Patel holds “moderate democratic views,” giving progressives no reason to break with the incumbent.

7th Middlesex (Western Boston suburbs - Ashland and Framingham)

Jack Patrick Lewis (i) vs. Carlton Phelps

State Rep. Jack Patrick Lewis faces a challenge from Ashland Democratic Party activist and bank analyst Carlton Phelps. Phelps strikes a vaguely progressive tone, but Lewis’s spending patterns indicate an incumbent who isn’t taking his seat for granted. Lewis, who chairs the Massachusetts House Progressive Caucus, also has the entire Massachusetts Democratic establishment and organized labor behind him. This should be an easy win for Lewis.

9th Middlesex (Western Boston suburbs - Waltham)

Thomas Stanley (i) vs. Heather May

In 2022, moderate Democratic state Rep. Thomas Stanley faced his first primary in years from Waltham Democratic City Committee Chair and Emerson College union organizer Heather May, who ran to his left and promised to join the Massachusetts House’s small bloc of progressive legislators. May nearly pulled off the upset, holding Stanley to a 53%-47% victory, and she’s back for Round 2. In her campaign, May is foregrounding Beacon Hill’s abysmal lack of transparency, which allows legislators to escape scrutiny for controversial votes by making many votes nonpublic. (Yes, you read that correctly—many of the legislature’s votes are withheld from the public.) Once again, May is operating at a financial disadvantage with support from only a couple of progressive groups—but that was nearly enough two years ago, so this is a race to watch.

11th Middlesex (Western Boston suburbs - Newton)

Alexander Jablon vs. Amy Mah Sangiolo

This race appears to be Newton City Councilor Amy Mah Sangiolo’s race to lose. Sangiolo has the backing of the Newton establishment and even its police union, not the norm for a candidate who also bothered to fill out a Progressive Mass questionnaire and won the endorsement of the Sierra Club. Sangiolo also has a wide financial advantage over auditor Alex Jablon, who cites government transparency as a top issue. Jablon’s campaign has raised an okay amount of money, but almost everyone in Newton politics seems to have simply settled on Sangiolo.

12th Middlesex (Newton and Brookline)

Bill Humphrey vs. Rick Lipof vs. Greg Schwartz

Two Newton City Councilors are running to succeed state Rep. Ruth Balser, and she’s backing neither of them—preferring medical doctor Greg Schwartz. The local establishment, including the police unions for both Newton and Brookline, narrowly prefers Newton City Councilor Rick Lipof, who has outraised and outspent his competitors. (There is no natural way to mention this, but Lipof may be dragged down by some weird, creepy texts he sent a female colleague offering her a foot massage.) Newton City Councilor Bill Humphrey, a progressive campaign consultant and commentator, has the least money (though his campaign is by no means broke; this is simply a very expensive race) but has been focusing on relentless door-knocking and has the benefit of being the only obvious progressive running in a very liberal part of inner-ring Boston suburbia. Progressive groups and the bulk of organized labor, including the normally conservative building trades, are backing Humphrey, while local officials are split between Lipof and Schwartz. Humphrey has the most detailed and most progressive platform of the three candidates, and is the only one with a clear focus on making the state legislature more transparent so that legislators can be held accountable for things like committee votes.

18th Middlesex (Lowell)

Rady Mom (i) vs. Tara Hong vs. Andrew Kollar

Progressive Tara Hong nearly upset state Rep. Rady Mom in 2022, after Mom broke with most Democrats to oppose a police reform bill and established himself as a generally moderate Democrat over the years. Hong held Mom to a narrow plurality win after the two spent nearly at parity, and the same spending pattern has emerged in their rematch. Hong, who is a substitute teacher and community activist when he’s not running for office, has to hope that small business owner Andrew Kollar takes up less of the anti-Mom vote than Lowell School Committee member Dominik Hok Y Lay did in 2022. As in 2022, progressive groups are enthusiastically backing Hong, hoping to add a member to the small bloc of progressive state reps.

25th Middlesex (Cambridge)

Marjorie Decker (i) vs. Evan MacKay

Marjorie Decker isn’t an overt conservative, like many members of the legislature who need a primary challenge, but she does represent Cambridge, the ur-college town, and Harvard is in her district. Viewed through that light, it’s harder to put up with a middle-of-the-road Democrat with endless patience for the opaque machinations of house leadership. Massachusetts has a notoriously leadership-driven legislative process, to the point where the public doesn’t even have access to most votes that representatives and committees take, a practice Decker has supported against attempts to change it. Recent-ish Harvard graduate, and current Harvard grad student labor leader Evan MacKay is making this intransigence their focus, attempting to harness the reformist, good-government tendency of Cambridge voters, as well as drawing on the large pool of left-wing voters in the city—MacKay is, after all, a DSA-endorsee who emphasizes that a more transparent legislature is a means to an end of passing more progressive legislation that voters in Massachusetts actually want. 

This contest has become a focal point for both insurgent progressives and the old guard across the state. Gov. Maura Healey has made a rare endorsement for Decker, as has Sen. Ed Markey, and, disappointingly, Rep. Ayanna Pressley. Progressive Mass and Act on Mass, the state’s leading progressive/transparency orgs, have done their best to promote MacKay, and they’ve picked up an endorsement from Auditor Diana DiZoglio, who has been on a crusade since her election to audit the legislature, whose resistance has led to a ballot measure this fall on whether she’ll get to do that. This race is the most expensive house contest in the state, with Decker and allies making up the bulk of that; hopefully, MacKay’s volunteer force, especially in a low-turnout election right as school gets back in session, could turn the tide.

27th Middlesex (Somerville)

Erika Uyterhoeven (i) vs. Kathleen Hornby 

Democratic socialist Erika Uyterhoeven was elected to represent the left-wing, Boston-bordering city of Somerville in 2020, and some Somerville Democrats have never gotten over it. Former legislative staffer Kathleen Hornby is running against Uyterhoeven with the backing of the Somerville Democratic City Committee. Hornby has outraised and outspent Uyterhoeven, and she’s wisely framed herself as a progressive—in a contested race it’s unlikely that Somerville would dump a progressive incumbent for a self-professed moderate. However, Hornby was a staffer for Cambridge state Rep. Marjorie Decker—a member of the obstinately conservative state House leadership—and she’s attacking Uyterhoeven for being too much of a purist who’s willing to vote against the Democratic consensus when the Democratic consensus is bad, like the budget-destroying package of tax cuts for the wealthy that Gov. Maura Healey and Beacon Hill leaders rammed through the legislature last year. Hornby would likely be a progressive enough vote, but she’d also be a doormat for the worse-than-useless legislative leadership, which is not something anyone would accuse Uyterhoeven of, even her detractors.

28th Middlesex (North Boston suburbs - Everett)

Joseph McGonagle Jr. (i) vs. Michael Marchese

Joseph McGonagle was one of Republican Gov. Charlie Baker’s favorite Democrats when Baker was in office. Baker’s parting gift to McGonagle was a bunch of money from his Massachusetts Majority PAC in 2022. Everett City Councilor Michael Marchese isn’t running against McGonagle for his Republican-friendly stances; he is, however, calling the incumbent old and out of touch, asserting that he’s more in step with the times and with Everett’s modern diversity. (Neither man seems particularly in step with the times, honestly.) Marchese has run against McGonagle twice before, losing both times.

35th Middlesex (North Boston suburbs - Malden and Medford)

Paul Donato Sr. (i) vs. Nichole Mossalam vs. Zayda Ortiz 

Socially conservative state Rep. Paul Donato Sr. has no business representing Boston’s diverse, left-leaning inner northern suburbs. Unfortunately, he may survive yet another tough primary because progressives couldn’t settle on one candidate. Nichole Mossalam, a progressive activist and mosque outreach leader, showed Donato was weak with a 56%-44% loss in 2020 and nearly unseated him in a 50.6%-49.4% nailbiter in 2022, and many of her progressive allies, plus a good number of local officials, are backing her to finish the job. However, former Progressive Mass president Zayda Ortiz is also running with the support of Progressive Mass and several local officials. Both Ortiz and Mossalam have a good amount of money to work with—but each of them has less than Donato does, and Donato no longer needs a majority to hold on. It seems to us that either woman would have a good shot at Donato if she had the field to herself, but with both in the race the pool of progressive voters is going to be split.

7th Norfolk (Southern Boston suburbs - Milton and Randolph)

Christos Alexopoulos vs. Tony King vs. Richard Wells Jr.

Though the campaign has been a cordial affair, it doesn’t take a tremendous amount of detective work to spot deep ideological differences in this race, which pits cannabis business owner Tony King against cops Richard Wells and Christos Alexopoulos. Organized labor has, in a welcome surprise, chosen King as their candidate, possibly because he also runs a union printing shop, but also possibly because both Wells and Alexaopoulos give off very centrist, even conservative vibes and have little to say to voters other than that they’re cops.  Wells is the fundraising leader, while Alexopoulos trails both Wells and King badly, but benefits from being the only Randolph-based candidate in a district where Randolph makes up most of the population. 

13th Norfolk (Western Boston suburbs - Needham)

Patrick Gatto vs. Kenneth Ruetenik vs. Joshua Tarsky (vs. Bhuren Patel)

The race to succeed longtime state Rep. Denise Garlick, a quietly quite good member of the state house, gives us plenty of candidates to consider. Patrick Gatto, a longtime Democratic staffer and volunteer, has labeled himself the progressive candidate, though his history with candidates like Joe Kennedy in 2020 and his day job in real estate gives us pause. Lawyer Joshua Tarsky is endorsed by Seth Moulton, so we know to stay far away, but he is, predictably,  the fundraising leader. 24 year-old Kenneth Ruetenik has deep family roots in Progressive Mass, who he cites as a major influence. He also lists specific ideas, like raising the corporate tax rate, that other candidates won’t touch. Unfortunately, he’s raised almost no money. Confusing things further is the presence of genuinely serious write-in candidate Bhuren Patel. 

11th Plymouth (Southern Boston suburbs - Brockton)

Rita Mendes (i) vs. Fred Fontaine

After running two extremely unsuccessful write-in campaigns for this seat in 2022, and losing 66%-34% against Brockton’s incumbent mayor in 2023, business owner Fred Fontaine is on the fast track to perennial candidate status. Fontaine should lose by a wide margin to incumbent Rita Mendes. 

6th Suffolk (Boston - Mattapan)

Russell Holmes (i) vs. Haris Hardaway vs. Samuel Pierce

Normally a hotbed of Democratic primary activity, the city of Boston is seeing a sleepy primary cycle this year. State Rep. Russell Holmes’s reelection race might be what passes as the most competitive race in the city; Haris Hardaway, who lost to Holmes 75%-24% in 2022, and perennial candidate Samuel Pierce are trying to deny Holmes another term. Hardaway, at least, has a bit of money to work with, but it shouldn’t be enough to come back from a 50-point drubbing.

8th Suffolk (Boston - Back Bay and Beacon Hill)

Jay Livingstone (i) vs. Lisa Graf vs. Kelechi Linardon

State Rep. Jay Livingstone faces token challenges from autistic self-advocate Lisa Graf and phantom candidate Kelechi Linardon. He’ll coast.

Local Offices

Really, there’s just one, but it’s a clear ideological fight between Boston’s progressive and liberal governing coalition on one side and the conservatives who have recently been shut out of power on the other side.

Suffolk County Clerk of Supreme Judicial Court

Aliison Cartwright vs. Erin Murphy

Remember Erin Murphy? Murphy was the only real victory for conservatives in Boston before the 2023 backlash election, barely squeaking into 4th place in the 2021 at-large Council election. As we said at the time, 

“Erin Murphy is the great white hope of the city’s moderate establishment. After running and losing in 2019, she cultivated relationships with the building trade unions and the affluent homeowning class, which allowed her to emerge as the leading non-progressive this time around. Endorsed by the police, she supports every excess of the department. Endorsed by every local moderate Irish politician in Boston, she promises to carry on their tradition.”

It appears she already wants out. Murphy is seeking one of the most obscure and powerless roles in local politics, basically handling the paperwork for the county’s top courts. That doesn’t mean she couldn’t cause problems there, but it’s not really an office with a lot of room to shine. Public defender Allison Cartwright is the much better choice for the role, and the Boston establishment, from Mayor Michelle Wu on down, does seem to agree. Normally we might be inclined to hope she wins anyway so she can be replaced on the council, but unfortunately Boston’s succession rules dictate that the 5th place candidate from 2023 take her spot, and that’s Bridget Nee-Walsh, who is just as bad.