8/6 Primary Preview Part II
Missouri and Washington
This is Part II of our August 6 primary preview, covering the states of Missouri and Washington. For Part I, covering Kansas and Michigan, click here.
Missouri
MO-01 (St. Louis City and County)
Cori Bush vs. Wesley Bell vs. Maria Chappelle-Nadal vs. Ron Harshaw
Result (>95% in): Bell 51.2%, Bush 45.6%, Chappelle-Nadal 2.6%, Harshaw 0.6% | Bell wins
Cori Bush was written off by many when she sought a rematch with Rep. Lacy Clay in 2020 after losing to him by about 20 points in 2018. Then, of course, she defeated Clay and became the newest member of the Squad in Congress. She won an easy renomination victory in 2022 over state Sen. Steven Roberts, who faced multiple credible accusations of sexual assault, but her enemies in St. Louis and Washington weren’t finished with her. They regrouped and found a much stronger opponent in St. Louis County Prosecuting Attorney Wesley Bell, who had run for that office as a progressive and garnered some national attention as the man who unseated Bob McCulloch, the prosecutor who notoriously let Michael Brown’s killer Darren Wilson off the hook. Bell had already burned most of his bridges to the progressive movement before he launched a primary challenge to Bush, owing to the fact that he didn’t follow through on any of the promises he made on the way to beating McCulloch. His decision to switch from challenging Republican Sen. Josh Hawley to challenging Bush, who rose to prominence as an activist for racial justice in Ferguson, only solidified the perception among St. Louis activists that Bell had been a fake all along.
The ensuing campaign has been nasty and sharply personal. Team Bush charges that Bell is a sellout propped up by AIPAC and its increasingly Republican donor base; Team Bell (which includes much of the local press) charges that Bush is a far-left dilettante, seizing on comments Bush made in her 2022 autobiography, resurfaced by the New York Post, claiming to have cured a woman’s tumors through prayer. (Yikes.) The Bush camp went nuclear and leaked a recording from the summer of 2023 in which Bell directly promised Bush that he would not run against her, which underscores why Bell’s run has prompted such a reaction from the St. Louis left—apparently, he didn’t just betray the people who elected him; he also went back on his own word to do so.
An onslaught of outside spending from AIPAC appears to have buried Bush’s message, according to an internal poll released by the Bell-supporting group Democratic Majority for Israel which shows Bell leading Bush 48%-42%, a month after the same pollster found Bell leading 43%-42%. Bush is backed by many progressive organizations and politicians, including St. Louis Mayor Tishaura Jones and Board of Aldermen President Megan Green, but it may not be enough to keep her from meeting the same fate as fellow Squad member Jamaal Bowman, who also faced a very well-funded challenge from a local elected official backed by millions in spending from AIPAC’s affiliated super PAC, the United Democracy Project.
SD-07 (Kansas City)
Pat Contreras vs. Patty Lewis
Result (>95% in): Lewis 67.0%, Contreras 33.0% | Lewis wins
This contest, between state Rep. Patty Lewis and development company executive Pat Contreras, has gotten unexpectedly ugly thanks to negative ads run by Contreras against Lewis, hitting her for voting against the Republican budget. Contreras is using the classic trick of presenting a budget “no” vote as a vote against every line in the budget, the kind of practice that makes us skeptical about whatever candidate is doing it. The election is by other appearances a low stakes affair—so low that the Chamber of Commerce issued a rare dual endorsement here—but Lewis at least appears to be an honest party footsoldier in a way that Contreras isn’t.
SD-09 (Kansas City)
Barbara Anne Washington (i) vs. Brandon Ellington
Result (>95% in): Washington 79.0%, Ellington 21.0% | Washington wins
Brandon Ellington just got bounced out of the Kansas City Council after a single term by a wide 61%-39% margin. Though ideologically a progressive, his go-it-alone approach to legislating annoyed other progressives enough that they didn’t lift a finger to help him against a challenger who only seemed slightly to his right. Ellington, who left his seat in the state house to run for city council, is now making an attempt to return to state government. His challenge to incumbent Barbara Anne Washington feels opportunistic, since Washington is an uncontroversial, lower-profile legislator. Ellison doesn’t have much to criticize about her approach—“not bringing home enough money” is what you go to when you don’t have anything else.
SD-13 (North St. Louis County)
Angela Mosley (i) vs. Chantelle Nickson-Clark
Result (>95% in): Mosley 56.7%, Nickson-Clark 43.3% | Mosley wins
We don’t want to be rooting for the Mosleys, a grimy political dynasty with at this point half a dozen different members who have been in or ran for elected office, but Angela Mosley’s opponent in this election is state Rep. Chantelle Nickson-Clark, one of the three Democrats who voted for the private school voucher bill last session. The absolute lowest bar for elected Democrats in a Republican state like Missouri is to not vote for bills like these. Nickson-Clark has received a ton of money in return for her vote, but has received pushback from the Democratic establishment, and in particular the Missouri Education Association.
HD-15 (Northern Kansas City suburbs)
Kenneth Jamison vs. Greg Smith
Result (>95% in): Jamison 61.7%, Smith 38.3% | Jamison wins
This will not be the only time we say an election is “policy-lite” or that candidates “don’t differ on the issues”—in red states, most Democratic candidates say they want to stop Republicans and stop there. Our vibes-based assessment, then, favors Ford worker Greg Smith over family law attorney Kenneth Jamison. While Jamison talks up his military services and bucolic ideas of suburban life, Smith focuses more on his work with the UAW and fighting right-to-work legislation. It doesn’t hurt that Jamison is endorsed by the Chamber of Commerce.
HD-19 (Northern Kansas City)
Patricia Geronima Hernandez vs. Wick Thomas
Result (>95% in): Thomas 50.6%, Hernandez 49.4% | Thomas wins
Librarian Wick Thomas is on their third crack at this seat, after twice challenging incumbent Ingrid Burnett and losing by 40%-25% in 2020 and 58%-42% in 2020. We’re hoping the third time’s the charm for the (to quote a Pitch KC headline from their second run) pansexual glam-rockstar, who is running as a progressive and generally seems to be quite cool. Party activist Patricia Geronima Hernandez would also be a strong choice, and add well-needed Hispanic representation in the legislature. This Hispanic-plurality district is the only one in the state, and either candidate could plausibly win.
HD-28 (Kansas City suburb of Raytown)
Donna Barnes vs. Mike Sager
Result (>95% in): Barnes 75.3%, Sager 24.7% | Barnes wins
Mike Sager served a single term in the state house, from 2003-2005, was convicted of pocketing over $20,000 from his campaign fund and filing false forms to hide it, made a comeback run in 2012, and was lucky to get 10% of the vote. Sager’s political career needs to stay dead, and we’re willing to put up with state Rep. Jerome Barnes handing off his seat to his spouse, Donna Barnes, if that’s what it takes.
HD-50 (Columbia)
Jeff Basinger vs. Gregg Bush
Result (>95% in): Bush 60.1%, Basinger 39.9% | Bush wins
Columbia is a college town, anchored by the University of Missouri, where over 10,000 Missourians work, and 30,000 students attend. It’s the only reliably liberal area of Missouri outside of metropolitan St. Louis and Kansas City, and it has an open contest thanks to the early retirement of state Rep. Doug Mann.
Trial attorney Jeff Basinger and nurse Gregg Bush are both running on the standard red-state Democratic platform—fight back against Republican extremism, defend abortion rights, stand up for unions, etc. Bush is the favorite of organized labor and has outraised Basinger, and he notes that he’d be the only nurse in the state legislature. Basinger, meanwhile, is offended that Bush pledged to vote against funding for the University of Missouri unless the university promised to bargain with its unionized workforce. No offense to Basinger, but America’s state legislatures would be vastly improved if they had fewer lawyers.
HD-66 (Northern St. Louis County)
Marlene Terry (i) vs. Tommie Pierson Sr.
Result (>95% in): Terry 64.4%, Pierson 35.6% | Terry wins
Tommie Pierson Sr. held the previous version of this district until 2016, when he ran for Lt. Governor and handed off the House seat to his son, Tommie Pierson Jr. After badly losing that primary, Sr. spent one term as mayor of suburban town Bellefontaine Neighbors (pop. 11,000), before voters angrily expelled him in 2023. The reason he lost so badly—taking third place with only 24% of the vote—that year was his attempt to basically assert unilateral control over the city by withholding pay from the aldermen until they voted like he wanted them to. We really hope voters in the city have forgiven Pierson Sr. for that, and for his other ethical issues, because we need him to win this one. Incumbent Marlene Terry is one of the three Democrats who helped Republicans pass a sweeping school voucher bill. Naturally, she’s now reaping the benefits of private school interests trying to reelect one of their loyal supporters, while the rest of us have to hope for a grimy machine politician’s unearned comeback bid to succeed.
HD-67 (Northern St. Louis County)
Tonya Rush vs. Neil Smith
Result (>95% in): Rush 65.0%, Smith 35.0%
Neil Smith and Tonya Rush are engaged in what feels like a very local election. Rush, a realtor turned healthcare company owner, and Smith, a former state rep, are both running competitive campaigns but offering boilerplate policy visions and not talking to media much. Still, there are signs Rush is the better choice, or at least Smith is the worse one. Smith has ties to the conservative Mosley dynasty, and the AFL-CIO endorsed Rush instead of Smith in this race despite Smith being the former lawmaker who should, theoretically, have connections with the group. Smith left the state house after only one term because he lost his primary in 2022 by a bruising 66%-34% margin—maybe there’s a reason for that.
HD-68 (Northern St. Louis County)
Janay Mosley vs. Pamela Paul vs. Kem Smith
Result (>95% in): Smith 47.1%, Mosley 42.8%, Paul 10.1% | Smith wins
Jay Mosley, current patriarch of the conservative Mosley dynasty, is exiting the state house owing to term limits, and is attempting to pass the baton to his daughter, Janay Mosley. We’re concerned that it’s going to work, not just because of the Mosleys’ power, but also because the opposition is split. Organized labor and the official Democratic establishment (town committees) are pushing Dr. Kem Smith, but also on the ballot is Pamela Paul, who ran for this seat against Mosley in 2022 and took 26% of the vote.
HD-70 (Northern St. Louis County)
Stephanie Boykin vs. Rickey Joiner vs. Durell Reeves
Result (>95% in): Boykin 73.1%, Joiner 14.8%, Reeves 12.1% | Boykin wins
Stephanie Boykin’s website still has some lorem ipsum text on it, and yet she’s the clear favorite for this open seat. Neither Rickey Joiner nor Durell Reeves has any money to spend according to their campaign finance filings, and Joiner doesn’t even appear to have a website.
HD-73 (Northern St. Louis County)
Raychel Proudie (i) vs. Mike Person
Result (>95% in): Proudie 66.4%, Person 33.6% | Proudie wins
Mike Person, a longtime political operative, tried actually getting elected to the city council in Ferguson, but found it too difficult, so when a state house vacancy opened up, he convinced his fellow party committee people to, at a nomination convention held in his living room, bypass voters and hand him the nomination for the special election in a deep blue seat. He still somehow managed to fuck even that up and barely defeated a Libertarian in the general election. While in the regular election he won a narrow reelection victory against a divided field in 2020, the 37% of the vote he barely scraped by with was a bad omen. When he faced only one candidate in 2022, fellow incumbent Raychel Proudie, he was sent packing, 62%-38%. Against all sense, that didn’t convince him to quit. Don’t expect this election to go any better for him.
HD-75 (Northern St. Louis County)
Catina Howard vs. Chanel Mosley vs. A.J. White
Result (>95% in): Mosley 44.1%, Howard 43.4%, White 12.5% | Winner TBD
You’re reading that correctly, it’s another goddamn Mosley. Chanel Mosley, sister of Janay, and daughter of Jay and Angela, is threatening to expand the family’s footprint even further. Luckily, the opposition is just as divided as in HD-68. Wait, did we say luckily? We meant the opposite of that. Catina Howard, a longtime leader in Amalgamated Transit Union Local 788, and A.J. White, a member of the Black Jack (pop. 7,000) City Council, are both real, viable candidates, and are collectively lowering the threshold for a Mosley victory. We’re obviously going to prefer the union leader over the suburban local politician, but we can’t be as confident voters will.
HD-78 (Central St. Louis)
Jami Cox Antwi vs. Marty Joe Murray vs. Jessica Pachak
Result (>95% in): Murray 57.5%, Antwi 31.4%, Pachak 11.0% | Murray wins
Erstwhile charter school principal Jessica Pachak has no money and no shot here; this is a race between former congressional staffer Jami Cox Antwi and Democratic activist Marty Joe Murray. Antwi and Murray both hit the same general notes, talking about opposing legislative Republicans and defending reproductive freedom, and both have raised low but non-trivial amounts of money; the tiebreaker for us is Murray’s strong support from organized labor and noteworthy St. Louis progressives, including Alderman Rasheen Aldridge, who held this seat prior to his 2023 election as alderman.
HD-80 (Southern St. Louis)
Elizabeth Fuchs vs. Ben Murray
Result (>95% in): Fuchs 59.4%, Murray 40.6% | Fuchs wins
This simple establishment vs. progressive race pits Elizabeth Fuchs, a social worker and lecturer on anti-racism at Washington University in St. Louis, against political aide Ben Murray. No points for guessing which candidate is which. Fuchs is cool, and has support from some corners of St. Louis’s progressive movement as well as queer activists like herself, but her campaign message also feels sort of dated—her “about” page discusses her family and the Catholic church being colonizers in a way that feels very 2020. Murray is also on good terms with seemingly everyone, so a push to stop him from being elected hasn’t materialized.
HD-81 (Southern St. Louis)
Steve Butz (i) vs. Cydney Johnson vs. Bill Stephens
Result (>95% in): Butz 58.6%, Stephens 31.8%, Johnson 9.5% | Butz wins
This race is a rematch of one of the nastier and more ideologically charged contests in 2022. Steve Butz, thanks to term limits, is running for his final term, but he doesn’t deserve it. A moderate who publicly opposed abortion during his last campaign and conspicuously talks around his position on the issue today, Butz is obviously out of step with the Democratic Party, but defeated progressive Bill Stephens 60%-40% in 2022. Stephens, a gay atheist who nonetheless won a nonpartisan seat on the Board of Alders in a part of the city that is often downright Republican lost by way more than we were expecting, but is trying again. Third-wheel candidate Cydney Johnson won’t win, but may take some of the needed anti-Butz vote.
HD-86 (Central St. Louis County - University City)
Jeff Hales vs. Donovan Meeks vs. Trina Nelson
Result (>95% in): Hales 54.1%, Meeks 27.5%, Nelson 18.3% | Hales wins
Trina Nelson, the choice of outgoing state Rep. Joe Adams, has been disqualified from holding office under Missouri law for failing to pay taxes. If she wins the primary, local party leaders will be able to choose a different nominee; more likely, this primary will be won by University City councilor Jeff Hales, who has much more money to work with. Hales positions himself as vaguely progressive, throwing in an almost non sequitur plug for Medicare for All on his Issues page. Donovan Meeks is a phantom candidate who does not appear to have taken any action to campaign other than filing to get on the ballot.
HD-99 (Central St. Louis County)
Ian Mackey (i) vs. Boris Abadzhyan
Result (>95% in): Mackey 80.6%, Abadzhyan 19.4% | Mackey wins
Boris Abadzhyan has run for Missouri House every two years since 2018, always achieving more than 10% but less than 20% of the vote against whichever incumbent he happens to run against. In 2022, that incumbent was Ian Mackey, and while 2022 was Abadzhyan’s best performance yet (18%), we have no reason to believe Mackey’s 82% won’t be repeated in 2024.
Jackson County Prosecuting Attorney
Stephanie Burton vs. John Gromowsky vs. Melesa Johnson
Result (>95% in): Johnson 48.4%, Gromowsky 26.1%, Burton 25.5% | Johnson wins
The winner here is probably going to be one of two prosecutors—John Gromowsky or Melesa Johnson. Neither sound open to reform efforts, but Stephanie Burton, who has worked for the Midwest Innocence Project and Death Penalty Litigation Clinic, clearly is. Unfortunately, she’s an underdog in this fight.
Though both prosecutors, Gromowsky and Johnson have substantial daylight between them, most obviously on drug possession—Johnson said she would continue the current office’s practice of not charging simple drug possession when not connected to a violent crime, while Gromowsky would reverse it. Oddly, so would Burton. Johnson is more skeptical of the death penalty than Gromowsky, though obviously much less so than Burton. The Black establishment in Jackson County is enthusiastically supporting Johnson, who is Black, while Gromoswsky, who is white, counts among his biggest supporters the police unions. He’s just straightforwardly the wrong choice, and we’d be fine with Johnson winning if it means him losing.
St. Louis City Sheriff
Vernon Betts (i) vs. Alfred Montgomery
Result (>95% in): Montgomery 50.3%, Betts 49.7% | Montgomery wins
Vernon Betts has served as the city of St. Louis’s elected sheriff since winning his first race in 2016, and he’s a colorful character, to say the least. In a recently surfaced recording, Betts joked (“joked”?) to deputies that they should shoot people who are “not on the team,” allegedly referring to his own political career and loyalty to him. He’s also been caught on tape disparaging a deputy who sued for discrimination and retaliation, casting the deputy as disloyal for not supporting Betts’s political career. Alfred Montgomery challenged Betts in 2020, losing 61%-28%, but he’s hoping that an earlier start to his own campaign and Betts’s latest concerning comments will propel him to victory in the rematch. Mayor Tishaura Jones and Board of Aldermen President Megan Green are backing Montgomery over Betts, saying, in essence, that they’re tired of Betts’s nonsense. And each man is calling the other mentally ill, because this race has just gotten that nasty and personal.
St. Louis City Treasurer
Adam Layne (i) vs. Jimmie Matthews
Result (>95% in): Layne 66.1%, Matthews 33.9% | Layne wins
St. Louis City Treasurer Adam Layne is going to coast in the face of minor opposition from former Alderman Jimmie Matthews, who last held office in the 1980s but has kept running for office ever since, earning the title of perennial candidate despite his status as a former officeholder.
Washington
WA-06 (Olympic Peninsula and Tacoma)
Hilary Franz vs. Emily Randall vs. Republicans
Result (>90% in): Randall 34.6%, McEwen (R) 30.2%, Franz 24.7% | Randall and McEwen advance to November
Rep. Derek Kilmer stunned Washington, DC and Washington State alike when he announced he’d retire from Congress at the end of his term. At 50, Kilmer is young by congressional standards, and his retirement came as a true shock; Kilmer said he wanted to spend more time with his family than the cross-country commute allowed, and he’s giving up a fair amount of clout within the House Democratic caucus to have more time with his family. Shortly after Kilmer announced his retirement, three Democratic candidates jumped in the race to succeed him, and two remain in the race.
Public Lands Commissioner Hilary Franz had been running for governor, struggling to gain traction against frontrunner Bob Ferguson. The 6th district includes her hometown of Bainbridge Island, so it was a natural escape hatch from a longshot gubernatorial campaign. Franz quickly racked up endorsements from many labor unions, particularly in the more conservative building trades, as well as Kilmer and Tacoma Mayor Victoria Woodards. But if she hoped for a glide path to Congress, she didn’t get it, because state Sen. Emily Randall has turned out to be a tough opponent. Randall flipped a swing seat in Tacoma’s northern suburbs in 2018 and quickly became popular with her colleagues, many of whom are backing her campaign. Randall is also backed by U.S. Sen. Patty Murray and many labor unions—including the unions representing Franz’s employees at the Department of Natural Resources, and the statewide AFL-CIO affiliate. She’s also endorsed by Jefferson County Commissioner Kate Dean, who briefly ran for WA-06 herself after Kilmer’s retirement announcement, and national organizations which have endorsed in this race are uniformly backing Randall. Some of those organizations’ reasons for backing Randall are obvious—the PACs affiliated with the Congressional Hispanic Caucus and the Congressional LGBT Equality Caucus want a queer Latina in Congress for reasons we hope you can guess. But the race has been upended by the late involvement of Protect Progress, a cryptocurrency industry super PAC, which has dropped more than $1 million in advertising supporting Randall over Franz. Franz’s campaign has decried the crypto industry’s involvement, and it does make it much harder to believe that Randall is the progressive choice in this race. Whichever Democrat comes out on top is likely headed to a general election with Republican state Sen. Drew McEwen, whose chances are slim in a district that voted for Joe Biden by double digits.
WA-08 (Seattle exurbs)
Kim Schrier (i) vs. Keith Arnold vs. Imraan Siddiqi
Result (>90% in): Schrier 49.9%, Goers (R) 45.4%, Siddiqi 3.3% | Schrier and Goers advance to November
This district is on the edge of competitive, but it’s worth a mention due to the candidacy of CAIR Washington director Imraan Siddiqi, who takes issue with Rep. Kim Schrier’s steadfast support for the Israeli bombardment of Gaza and her general penchant for conservative posturing that is unnecessary in a district which leans slightly towards Democrats. Siddiqi is outmatched financially, but Schrier could use a reminder that her district consistently votes for the Democratic presidential nominee and doesn’t actually demand conservative messaging votes. In all likelihood, Schrier will move on to face Republican Carmen Goers in November.
WA-09 (Tacoma to Seattle)
Adam Smith (i) vs. Melissa Chaudhry
Result (>90% in): Smith 54.2%, Chaudhry 20.1%, Martin (R) 18.4% | Smith and Chaudhry advance to November
Rep. Adam Smith is a low-profile congressman who leads the Democrats on the House Armed Services Committee, and he’s a perennial target of underfunded primary challengers who rightly think a deep-blue district could do better. This year, that challenger is Melissa Chaudhry, a grant writer running on a progressive platform; she earned the Stranger’s endorsement and with it some protest votes, which may be enough to carry her into the general election and box out Republicans Mark Greene and Paul Martin and third-party centrist David Ishii.
Governor
Bob Ferguson vs. Mark Mullet vs. Republicans vs. assorted cranks and weirdos
Result (>90% in): Ferguson 45.2%, Reichert (R) 27.5%, Bird (R) 10.5%, Mullet 6.1% | Ferguson and Reichert advance to November
Every poll of this election paints the same picture: Attorney General Bob Ferguson, a Democrat, and former U.S. Rep. Dave Reichert, a Republican, will advance to November’s general election, with each man eliminating a more conservative challenger from within his own party. For Reichert, that’s far-right activist Semi Bird, the favorite of many local Republican Party organizations; for Ferguson, that’s anti-tax crusader Mark Mullet, a state senator from the Seattle suburbs who claims to be a Democrat but could’ve fooled us otherwise. Polls have both Mullet and Bird mired in the single digits, as Ferguson and Reichert just have vastly superior name recognition. This will very likely be a very boring primary.
Lieutenant Governor
Denny Heck (i) vs. David Griffin vs. Republicans
Result (>90% in): Heck 48.9%, Matthews (R) 22.8%, Hagglund (R) 16.7%, Griffin 8.9% | Heck and Matthews advance to November
Denny Heck retired from representing the Olympia area in Congress in 2020…only to change his mind and launch a successful bid for lieutenant governor. Heck faces only minor opposition from Republicans and fellow Democrat David Griffin, who wants to bring a greater focus on bipartisanship and poses on his campaign website with a very cute dog.
Attorney General
Nick Brown vs. Manka Dhingra vs. Pete Serrano (R)
Result (>90% in): Serrano (R) 41.9%, Brown 35.5%, Dhingra 22.6% | Serrano and Brown advance to November
We’re not going to pretend to be excited by an election for attorney general that’s between two career prosecutors and a Republican, even if both of the prosecutors have overall solid platforms. Former US Attorney (and Survivor contestant) Nick Brown headed up the US Attorney’s Office for the Western District of Washington during the Biden administration before resigning to run for AG, and he takes a very progressive, aggressive view of what his potential AG’s office would do: he wants to reorganize the office, which has broad civil law enforcement authority, to focus more resources on tenants’ rights, wage theft, and labor law. State Sen. Manka Dhingra, a prosecutor for Seattle’s King County before her 2017 election to the state Senate, is more focused on criminal justice reform, and absolutely clears Brown on criminal justice issues; Dhingra actually has a record of advancing criminal justice reform in the legislature to back up her rhetoric, too. However, as the Stranger rightly notes, a state AG’s office does far more civil work than criminal, and that’s where Brown takes a bolder view of the office’s potential. Ultimately, Washington State voters have a choice between two decent candidates who share the unfortunate defect of being prosecutors (and Republican Pete Serrano, but our discussion of him starts and ends with his party affiliation.)
Secretary of State
Steve Hobbs (i) vs. Marquez Tiggs vs. Republicans
Result (>90% in): Hobbs 48.7%, Whitaker (R) 36.6%, Tiggs 9.6% | Hobbs and Whitaker advance to November
Steve Hobbs finally completed Washington Democrats’ long-overdue sweep of statewide offices after moderate Republican Kim Wyman resigned to take a job in the Biden administration, and Gov. Jay Inslee appointed Hobbs, then a state senator, to fill in for Wyman. Hobbs narrowly defeated centrist independent Julie Anderson in a 2022 special election and now faces a much weaker field composed of one Republican, one independent running under the banner of the basically defunct No Labels organization, and minor Democratic candidate Marquez Tiggs.
Superintendent of Public Instruction
Chris Reykdal (i) vs. John Patterson Blair vs. David Olson vs. Reid Saaris
Result (>90% in): Reykdal 39.4%, Olson 31.1%, Saaris 23.9%, Blair 5.1% | Reykdal and Olson advance to November
Chris Reykdal is an uncontroversial liberal incumbent backed by organized labor who plans to keep badgering the legislature to increase school funding. Reid Saaris is a frustratingly vague education nonprofit guy who distances himself from charter schools and school vouchers but is funded by some of their main Washington State backers. Gig Harbor school board member David Olson is a right-winger and former Vashon school board member John Patterson Blair barely seems to be running. Reykdal is the clear choice in this nonpartisan race.
Insurance Commissioner
Bill Boyd vs. Chris Chung vs. Patricia Kuderer vs. John Pestinger vs. Republicans
Result (>90% in): Kuderer 45.4%, Fortunato (R) 28.4%, Murta (R) 10.1%, Pestinger 5.6%, Hendrix (I) 3.7%, Boyd 3.1%, Chung 2.9% | Kuderer and Fortunato advance to November
Democrats have a crowded field of candidates for Insurance Commissioner that will helpfully be winnowed by the August primary. The leading Democrat is state Sen. Patty Kuderer, a reliably liberal backbencher supported by organized labor, but the centrist Seattle Times prefers insurance industry professional John Pestinger. Bill Boyd wants to privatize the state’s workers’ compensation system, and Chris Chung is a phantom candidate.
Public Lands Commissioner
Jeralee Anderson vs. Kevin Van De Wege vs. Patrick DePoe vs. Allen Lebovitz vs. Dave Upthegrove vs. Republicans
Result (>90% in): Herrera Beutler (R) 22.0%, Upthegrove 20.8%, Pederson (R) 20.7%, DePoe 14.1%, Lebovitz 10.3%, Van De Wege 7.6%, Anderson 4.5% | Herrera Beutler and either Pederson or Upthegrove advance to November
King County Council chair Dave Upthegrove isn’t a progressive in the context of King County politics, but he’s who many progressives have reluctantly landed on in this race as they evaluate a field of alternatives who are either more conservative or simply untested. State Sen. Kevin Van De Wege, who represents the Olympic Peninsula, is a fairly conservative Democrat who’s particularly shaky on environmental issues, which are central to the job of the Public Lands Commissioner. Patrick DePoe is a Makah Tribe member and current tribal relations official in the Department of Natural Resources backed by outgoing incumbent Hilary Franz, but that may almost be a liability, as Franz faces scrutiny for allegedly using her authority at the head of DNR to boost her political ambitions as she seeks a congressional seat. Redmond City Council member Jeralee Anderson is an engineer who runs a sustainability nonprofit and seems to be struggling to break through, as does firefighter Allen Lebovitz. DePoe seems to be doing the best job of anyone other than Upthegrove at collecting support from prominent Democrats and labor unions, and his support from the leadership of many of Washington’s Native tribes will undoubtedly boost him as well, but this does appear to be Upthegrove’s race to lose.
Supreme Court, Position 2
Todd Bloom vs. Dave Larson vs. Sal Mungia vs. David Shelvey
Result (>90% in): Mungia 43.4%, Larson 36.5%, Bloom 16.2%, Shelvey 3.4% | Mungia and Larson advance to November
This one is simple: Todd Bloom is a Republican, Federal Way Municipal Court Judge Dave Larson is a crime fearmongerer who’s appeared at an event with GOP gubernatorial candidate Dave Reichert, family law attorney David Shelvey is a bit of a gadfly, and Sal Mungia, a former president of the state bar association endorsed by just about everyone in Washington politics, is the only candidate who doesn’t throw up any red flags.
LD-03 (Spokane)
House, Position 1: Natasha Hill vs. Ben Stuckart
Result (>90% in): Kiepe (R) 35.4%, Hill 32.5%, Stuckart 32.0% | Kiepe and Hill advance to November
Attorney and civil rights activist Natasha Hill and former Spokane City Council President Ben Stuckart are both running as standard liberals with little daylight between the two on the issues. The lack of real policy stakes in this race is evident from the number of dual endorsements issued by unions and progressive groups. This race even happens to be the second choice of both candidates—Hill previously ran for Congress in 2022, losing to GOP Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers, and Stuckart considered running for McMorris Rodgers’s open seat this year before this state House seat opened up. We’re sorry, this one is just really boring.
LD-05 (Seattle exurbs)
House, Position 1: Victoria Hunt vs. Jason Ritchie vs. Kristiana de Leon
Result (>90% in): Hunt 35.4%, Hargrove (R) 27.4%, Halverson (R) 16.9%, de Leon 10.3%, Ritchie 10.0% | Hunt and Hargrove advance to November
Victoria Hunt and Kristiana de Leon both offer generally progressive platforms, but with different focuses. Hunt is a member of the Issaquah City Council and has a message tailored to suburban progressives, including transit-oriented development and greater funding for housing and supportive services. de Leon is a member of the Black Diamond City Council and is more focused on small towns and exurbs like her own (though she, and not Hunt, is endorsed by the Urbanist, a major Seattle-area urbanist organization.) Either would make a good addition to the legislature. The only underwhelming choice is Jason Ritchie, a former Sammamish City Council member who’s running to the center on a platform of only making minor changes to the status quo. There are also two Republicans running, so we may or may not have to return to this race in November depending on whether one Democrat or two ends up advancing to November.
LD-21 (Northern Seattle suburbs)
House, Position 1: Strom Peterson (i) vs. Jason Moon
Result (>90% in): Peterson 50.5%, Khan (R) 27.5%, Moon 21.8% | Peterson and Khan advance to November
Mukilteo City Councilmember Jason Moon is a moderate backlash candidate trying to harness anger over any issues or policies of the state or Seattle in the last decade that he thinks exists. Drug recovery sites, pro-housing laws, and police reform—all get a freak AI photo and a vague reactionary blurb about how he’s going to push back against them. Or something. The man’s website starts getting into policy with the inspiring statement “I think it's time for a change in our current housing, drug, or public safety laws!” and barely gets any more specific from there. We’d normally expect Strom Peterson, a state house backbencher, to advance into the general facing off against a Republican instead of this clown, but a variety of suburban politicians, and not just ones from Mukilteo, have endorsed Moon, so we’re keeping our eye on this race.
LD-22 (Olympia)
Senate: Jessica Bateman vs. Tela Hogle vs. Bob Iyall
Result (>90% in): Bateman 68.9%, Iyall 20.4%, Hogle 8.1% | Bateman and Iyall advance to November
State Rep. Jessica Bateman is aiming for a promotion, and she’s got a solid enough record in the House that we feel comfortable with her getting that promotion. Bateman has led the way on promoting affordable housing through the statewide legalization of so-called “missing middle” housing, and she also wants to reform Washington’s regressive tax code to raise more revenue from the wealthiest. Business owner Tela Hogle and Nisqually tribal elder Bob Iyall both offer progressive platforms as well, but it’s hard to see either one beating Bateman.
House, Position 2: Syd Locke vs. Lisa Parshley
Result (>90% in): Parshley 63.8%, Locke 32.9% | Parshley and Locke advance to November
Beauty pageant primaries are the phenomenon created by Top 2 electoral systems such as Washington’s, which guarantee spots for two candidates in the general election, but don’t have a mechanism for canceling the first round if only two candidates file for the office. The result is the entire district being asked to vote in an election with zero stakes but minor informational value for where the race stands. The first of the night is here, where 30-year state house legislative aide Syd Locke is running as a proud socialist for an open seat that Olympia City Councilmember Lisa Parshley is considered the favorite for.
LD-23 (Kitsap County - Bremerton, Bainbridge Island)
House, Position 2: Greg Nance (i) vs. Brynn Felix vs. John Gibbons
Result (>90% in): Nance 46.3%, Miles (R) 29.2%, Felix 19.3%, Gibbons 5.2% | Nance and Miles advance to November
Appointed state Rep. Greg Nance has drawn a pair of strong primary challengers through no apparent fault of his own. Dentist John Gibbons, the former president of the Washington State Dental Association, is running on a platform of being a standard liberal who is also a dentist, and ACLU lobbyist Brynn Felix acknowledges that the votes aren’t yet there for state-level single-payer but wants to build up a supportive bloc of legislators in advance. Progressive organizations and labor unions are split between Felix and Nance, who has focused on less ideological issues like improving Puget Sound ferry service but hasn’t cast any notably terrible votes in his brief time as a legislator.
LD-24 (Olympic Peninsula)
Senate: Mike Chapman vs. James Russell
Result (>90% in): Chapman 53.8%, Kelbon (R) 41.2%, Russell 5.0% | Chapman and Kelbon advance to November
State Rep. Mike Chapman is very likely to succeed outgoing state Sen. Kevin Van De Wege, but he does technically have to beat Democratic phantom candidate James Russell in the August primary first.
House, Position 1: Adam Bernbaum vs. Eric Pickens vs. Nate Tyler
Result (>90% in): Bernbaum 28.1%, Roberson (R) 26.8%, Pickens 17.3%, Streifel (R) 14.2%, Tyler 13.5% | Bernbaum and Roberson advance to November
The contest for the seat left behind by Mike Chapman is a lot more interesting than the contest actually involving Mike Chapman, but that’s not saying much. Teacher and union leader Eric Pickens, the president of the Sequim School Board, wants to improve Puget Sound ferry service and build on his own union experience to advance pro-union policy. He’s backed by many labor unions, and he shares the endorsement of Chapman and a number of local politicians with state legislative aide Adam Bernbaum. Bernbaum is, unfortunately, also backed by Kevin Van De Wege, which makes us think Pickens is probably more progressive. Rounding out the field is Makah tribal leader Nate Tyler, who has also been endorsed by Chapman. (Ro Khanna, someone has finally outdone you.) Tyler is the most vague and the most moderate-sounding on policy, but the differences between these three candidates are slight.
LD-27 (Tacoma)
House, Position 2: Jake Fey (i) vs. Devin Rydel Kelly
Result (>90% in): Fey 70.2%, Kelly 26.9% | Fey and Kelly advance to November
This election is another beauty pageant primary—only incumbent Jake Fey and progressive/socialist challenger Devin Rydel Kelly are on the ballot, meaning they will both advance to November, and the only value of the results here will be letting us know how the race is going.
LD-29 (Tacoma and suburbs)
House, Position 1: Melanie Morgan (i) vs. Richard Miller
Result (>90% in): Morgan 67.5%, Miller 26.9% | Morgan and Miller advance to November
This is also a beauty pageant primary, this time between staff-abusing incumbent Melanie Morgan, and Richard Miller, a realtor who promises to not do that.
LD-32 (Northern Seattle, Shoreline, Lynnwood)
House, Position 2: Lauren Davis (i) vs. Dunia Wabenga
Result (>90% in): Davis 69.9%, Theis (R) 23.4%, Wabenga 6.6% | Davis and Theis advance to November
State Rep. Lauren Davis faces a badly underfunded challenge from immigrant and military veteran Dunia Wabenga. She’ll likely clear 50% in this very blue district and face a Republican, not Wabenga, in November.
LD-38 (Everett)
House, Position 1: Julio Cortes (i) vs. Annie Fitzgerald vs. Bryce Nickel
Result (>90% in): Cortes 61.2%, Fitzgerald 20.0%, Nickel 13.5% | Cortes and Fitzgerald advance to November
Progressive state Rep. Julio Cortes faces no-budget challengers Annie Fitzgerald and Bryce Nickel, who each also position themselves on the left but lack the resources to pose a threat to Cortes.
LD-43 (Central Seattle)
House, Position 2: Daniel Carusello vs. Stephanie Lloyd-Agnew vs. Shaun Scott vs. Andrea Suarez
Result (>90% in): Scott 59.0%, Suarez 20.4%, Carusello 16.3%, Lloyd-Agnew 3.5% | Scott and Suarez advance to November
Five years after narrowly losing a Seattle City Council seat to moderate Alex Pedersen, socialist activist Shaun Scott is back in the electoral arena, and this time he looks like a solid favorite. LD-43 is one of the most left-leaning districts in the state (and in the whole country, for that matter); in 2020, a third-party leftist, Sherae Lascelles, managed to get a third of the general election vote against incumbent state Rep. Frank Chopp. Chopp is finally retiring after decades in office, and he’s backing Scott as his successor, as is LD-43’s other state rep, Nicole Macri. His main opponent is obvious right-winger Andrea Suarez, who is fundraising well but faces the likely insurmountable obstacle of pretty obviously being a Republican in all but name. Qualtrics employee Daniel Carusello is endorsed by the Seattle Times and isn’t terrible, but he’s clearly less progressive and less viable than Scott. Stephanie Lloyd-Agnew is a phantom candidate. Scott and either Suarez or Carusello should advance to November here; even if Republicans had managed to field a candidate here (they didn’t), this district is too blue to send a Republican to November unless they have no other choice.
LD-45 (Eastern Seattle suburbs)
House, Position 2: Larry Springer (i) vs. Melissa Demyan
Result (>90% in): Springer 49.7%, Demyan 47.0% | Springer and Demyan advance to November
This beauty pageant primary pits moderate charter school supporter Larry Springer against Melissa Demyan, who was endorsed by the King County Democrats, likely as a result of them finally having enough of his shit after 20 years.
LD-46 (Northeast Seattle)
House, Position 1: Gerry Pollet (i) vs. Ahndylyn Kinney
Result (>90% in): Pollet 83.2%, Daranciang (R) 10.2%, Kinney 6.5% | Pollet and Daranciang advance to November
Though not technically a beauty pageant primary, there are only two Democrats and one Republican running in a district where the Democratic vote share hovers around 90%. Incumbent Gerry Pollet is being challenged by Ahndylyn Kinney, a “MODERATE DEMOCRAT FOR A MORE AFFORDABLE AND SAFER SEATTLE”.
Seattle Council At-Large Pos. 8 [Special]
Tanya Woo (i) vs. Alexis Mercedes Rinck vs. Saunatina Sanchez vs. Tariq Yusuf
Result (>90% in): Rinck 49.9%, Woo 38.8%, Sanchez 4.3%, Yusuf 3.8% | Rinck and Woo advance to November
Tanya Woo was last seen losing an unexpectedly close race to progressive District 2 councilor Tammy Morales in 2023. The founder of the Chinatown-International District Community Watch impressed Seattle’s dominant moderate faction so much that when progressive at-large city councilor Teresa Mosqueda won a seat on the King County Council, the moderates on the Seattle City Council chose to appoint Woo to the vacant at-large seat. Woo, a business owner, is a moderate through and through, and eventually opted to recuse herself from a vote on rescinding the city’s minimum wage for gig workers after the city’s ethics director advised her that her father-in-law’s ownership of a restaurant which contracted with app-based gig work delivery companies created a conflict of interest. Progressives are still sore over Woo’s appointment and their rough 2023 cycle more generally, and they see Alexis Mercedes Rinck as their best shot at beginning to rebuild the council’s once-powerful progressive bloc. While Saunatina Sanchez and Tariq Yusuf also position themselves to the left of Woo (it’s not hard), Rinck is the only one who commits to progressive tax hikes to avoid cutting city services, and she’s the only one with widespread support from progressive Seattle politicians and organizations, including a handful of labor unions evidently dissatisfied with Woo.