8/4 Primary Preview Part I

This is another biggie

We were planning on sending this out in one piece, but there is a massive volume of elections happening today, mostly due to Michigan and Missouri, where term limits and large state houses team up to create a wide playing field. Like the New York/Kentucky preview, we didn’t want to send you a novel in a single email. This contains Arizona, Kansas, and Michigan. In a few hours we’ll send out Missouri and Washington.

Arizona

Note: Arizona has a legislative district system which is otherwise only used in New Jersey and the Dakotas. The state has 50 legislative districts. Each district holds one election for one senator, and one election for two state house representatives. Voters can choose up to two candidates on the state house ballot, and the top two vote-getters win. This is true for the primary and general elections.

AZ-01: Tom O’Halleran (i) vs. Eva Putzova

O’Halleran is a former Republican, former cop, and current member of the Blue Dog Coalition, a group of the worst and most useless House Democrats. O’Halleran faces a spirited but under-resourced challenge from former Flagstaff city councilor Eva Putzova, who is running a progressive campaign; O’Halleran is heavily favored, but Flagstaff, a college town that is the district’s largest city, could be strong for Putzova. O’Halleran doesn’t appear worried, but he’s hedging his bets enough for a $111,000 cable buy ahead of the primary, which means both that he’s taking Putzova some level of seriously, and that incumbents are getting very worried after Engel.

This district is one where we’d normally hesitate about challenging the incumbent, because Trump and Romney narrowly carried it; however, Republicans aren’t prioritizing the district after several consecutive losses, including in the more Republican years of 2014 and 2016. Additionally, demographic trends have led to a slow erosion in Republican vote share in this sprawling rural district, which includes most of the state’s Native reservations (including the Navajo Nation) as well as rural white communities, some exurbs of Phoenix and Tucson, the college town of Flagstaff, and the liberal resort town of Sedona. We’re not particularly nervous about this seat. 

SD-24: Lela Alston (i) vs Ryan Starzyk

Lela Alston is one of the most senior Democrats in the state Senate, and she’s not great. Her challenge from LGBT activist Ryan Starzyk hasn’t gained much traction, but it’s hard to get a read on this race.

SD-26: Juan Mendez (i) vs. Jana Granillo

Mendez is part of a slate of progressives in this Tempe district; his entire slate is being opposed by heavy spending from business interests, and business support is never a good sign.

HD-02: Daniel Hernandez Jr. (i) vs. Andrea Dalessandro vs. Billy Peard (vs. Luis Parra)

Term-limited state Sen. Andrea Dalessandro is expected to win one of this district’s two state house seats; it’s a contest between moderate incumbent state Rep. Daniel Hernandez Jr. and progressive challenger Billy Peard for the other seat. Peard is an ACLU lawyer backed by Tucson DSA and the local AFL-CIO; Hernandez is backed by utility companies, charter school groups, and a Republican front group called Better Leaders, Better Arizona. Parra is a local veteran and attorney who hasn’t gained traction.

HD-03: Andres Cano (i) and Alma Hernandez (i) vs. Javier Soto

State Rep. Andres Cano is pretty good, and is expected to take one of the district’s two seats; state Rep. Alma Hernandez, brother of Daniel, is fighting with union organizer Javier Soto for the other seat. Root for Soto.

HD-10: Domingo DeGrazia (i) vs. Stephanie Stahl Hamilton vs. Paul Stapleton-Smith 

Incumbent Domingo DeGrazia and candidates Stephanie Stahl Hamilton and Paul Stapleton-Smith all have a fair number of significant endorsements, and each candidate’s list of endorsements cuts across the ideological spectrum. We expect DeGrazia to make it to November because he’s an incumbent, but wouldn’t be surprised by either Hamilton or Stapleton-Smith getting the second slot.

HD-19: Diego Espinoza (i) and Lorenzo Sierra (i) vs. Leezah Sun

Local activist Leezah Sun is challenging incumbents Diego Espinoza and Lorenzo Sierra; the ideological battle lines are unclear, but Sun seems to be running to the left.

HD-26: Athena Salman (i) vs. Melody Hernandez vs. Patrick Morales vs. Debbie Nez-Manuel 

Rep. Salman is part of Mendez’s slate, as is paramedic Melody Hernandez. They face indigenous activist Debbie Nez-Manuel and Tempe school board member Patrick Morales, backed by the same business interests opposing Mendez and backing the Hernandez siblings in the 2nd and 3rd legislative district. Nez-Manuel is running a campaign focused on advocating for indigenous Arizonans in the state legislature, rather than on the issues preferred by the business interests backing her; they may just be backing her because she’s not on Mendez’s slate.

HD-27: Reginald Bolding (i) and Diego Rodriguez (i) vs. Catherine H. Miranda 

Catherine Miranda is a conservative Democratic former state representative who endorses Republicans and primaries incumbent Democrats from the right. It would be very bad if she won. She was last seen in 2018 getting demolished by Ruben Gallego in AZ-07, so hopefully Phoenix is done with her.

HD-29: Richard Andrade (i) and Cesar Chavez (i) vs. Teddy Castro

State Rep. Richard Andrade is a solid progressive, and we hope to see him returned to the legislature; fellow incumbent Cesar Chavez is a moderate, but challenger Teddy Castro seems to be supported exclusively by business, so we’re...skeptical, to say the least.

Pima County DA: Laura Conover vs. Mark Thomas Diebolt vs. Jonathan Mosher

Another primary day, another DA primary with major implications for criminal justice reform and mass incarceration. None of the candidates to replace punitive Pima County DA Barbara LaWall are as radical as candidates like San Francisco DA Chesa Boudin or Austin’s all-but-certain new DA José Garza, but Laura Conover, a defense attorney and former public defender, is a clear step above Diebolt and Mosher. Conover promises to shift resources away from prosecuting drug offenses and sex work, and to pursue alternatives to incarceration when her office does prosecute those cases. It’s not the blanket refusal to prosecute entire classes of cases we’ve grown used to seeing from left-wing DA candidates, but it’s good. (However, all three candidates have said they will not prosecute marijuana possession, which is a welcome step.)

No Republican, third-party, or independent candidate has filed to run for DA, so the winner of the primary will be the next DA of Pima County, a county of over a million residents which includes Tucson.

Pima County Recorder: Gabriella Cázares-Kelly vs. Kim Challender

In Arizona, the county recorder administers elections, so these primaries are important for voting rights, as well as serving as a springboard to higher office. Gabriella Cázares-Kelly, a Native American teacher and activist with the backing of Raúl Grijalva, Deb Haaland, Tucson DSA, Sunrise Tucson, local labor unions, and a long list of Arizona’s better Democratic state and local officials, is the kind of person we want to see in office. Kim Challender, whose most notable backers are the local Chamber of Commerce and the outgoing incumbent, is not. Cázares-Kelly also offers specific plans to increase voter turnout, including website improvements, ballot drop boxes, and increased outreach to the Tohono O’odham Nation, a large tribe in the county’s rural west of which Cázares-Kelly is a member. Challender offers little in the way of specifics.

The winner of the primary will be heavily favored over Benny White, who is unopposed for the Republican nomination, in this reliably Democratic county.

Kansas

HD-10: Christina Haswood vs. Brandon Holland vs. A.J. Stevens

This seems like a contest between public health professional Christina Haswood and self-funding former Baldwin City Councilor AJ Stevens, though liquor store manager and former Democratic campaign staffer Brandon Holland seems like a credible candidate as well. Stevens is positioning himself as a progressive, earning the endorsement of Our Revolution and leaning heavily on Sanders-esque rhetoric--but he’s a self-funder (bad) and his campaign manager is a former Buttigieg staffer, a hire a progressive candidate normally would not make. (Mostly because Buttigieg alums generally do not work for progressive candidates.) But Haswood has the backing of everyone from the local Sunrise chapter and organized labor to local Democratic politicians, indicating that the strange self-funder is, in fact, a strange self-funder.

HD-22: Randen Smith vs. Lindsay Vaughn

Local businessman Randen Smith is best known for defying his power company and supplying electricity to a disabled neighbor who the power company had cut off, even lawyering up when the power company told him to stop. It’s a great thing to do, and also something nobody should ever have to do, because it is absolutely inhumane to shut off power because a disabled man on oxygen can’t pay his bills. Smith’s platform is pretty good, too, including single payer (while also supporting the more immediate step of Medicaid expansion, which Kansas can actually do if Democrats and the Kansas GOP’s surprisingly large faction of actual moderates can corral enough votes for it), legal marijuana, and taxing the rich.

The other candidate, nonprofit director Lindsay Vaughn, is supported by a list which includes the local Chamber of Commerce, which is usually a bad sign.

HD-32: Pam Curtis (i) vs. Oscar Irenia

State Rep. Pam Curtis has unified support from organized labor, Kansas Democrats, and business interests, but the reason we’d keep an eye on challenger Oscar Irenia is one of the reasons he says he’s running: he’s Hispanic, like more than 60% of the district’s residents, while Curtis is white. White incumbents facing challengers of color in majority-minority districts are especially prone to losing renomination.

HD-35: Broderick Henderson (i) vs. Nelson Gabriel

In 1987, Nelson Gabriel was elected to the state house. He served two terms representing HD-90, and was among the youngest elected officials in the country. Now, he’s running for office again. One small problem: Gabriel was a state rep in Louisiana, not Kansas. Incumbent Broderick Henderson seems to be sleepwalking through his primary, skipping candidate forums and local news questionnaires. Gabriel, on the other hand, has the support of a number of local pastors, which makes sense: prior to founding the nonprofit he currently runs, he was an AME pastor. The incumbent may be absent, but Gabriel’s not great: his response to a question about police reform was suggesting more police funding to fix the problem.

HD-37: Stan Frownfelter (i) vs. Aaron Coleman

Incumbent Stan Frownfelter is a moderate, but challenger Aaron Coleman is best known for wishing Republican politicians died of COVID, so that’s, um, not great!

Douglas County Prosecutor: Charles Branson (i) vs. Cooper Overstreet vs. Suzanne Valdez

Cooper Overstreet, a local defense attorney, is challenging incumbent Charles Branson for the Democratic nomination, which is tantamount to election in Douglas County, home to the college town of Lawrence. Per the Intercept, incumbent Charles Branson opposes a conviction integrity unit, is skeptical of eliminating cash bail, and is known for botching sexual assault cases; Suzanne Valdez is a former Republican who warns that Overstreet would make Lawrence “complete anarchy,” like “Seattle or Portland.”

Overstreet is modeling his campaign on José Garza and Tiffany Cabán, and promises to seek an end to cash bail, civil asset forfeiture, prosecution for inability to pay fines and fees, limit drug prosecutions, and pursue reduced sentences. Overstreet’s win would mark yet another victory for the movement to oust punitive DAs, and one deep in the so-called heartland at that.

Michigan

MI-12: Debbie Dingell (i) vs. Solomon Rajput

Socialist candidate Solomon Rajput is Very Online, but that’s about it. This district, which includes Dearborn and Ann Arbor, will return Debbie Dingell to office.

MI-13: Rashida Tlaib (i) vs. Brenda Jones

Rashida Tlaib is a fantastic member of Congress; naturally, this has earned her a challenger. Detroit City Council President Brenda Jones won the Democratic nomination for this district in 2018...and simultaneously lost it. How? There were two concurrent primaries: one for a special election to fill the last six weeks of former Rep. John Conyers’s term, and one for the regular two-year term. Jones narrowly won the former and narrowly lost the latter. As a result, she served a few weeks in Congress in late 2018 before returning to her job as president of the Detroit City Council.

She’s back for another go at Tlaib--but this time, Tlaib is a solid favorite. Jones was a weak enough fundraiser the first time, but now Tlaib has the monster fundraising that comes with being a member of the Squad; additionally, Tlaib has the support of organized labor, which backed Jones in 2018. Jones retains the support of the city’s Black political establishment, and she’s been endorsed by her 2018 opponents; however, she’s never been able to respond to polls consistently showing her trailing, nor has she been able to convince wealthy moderate and Republican donors that she has a chance (which even AOC’s joke of a challenger was able to do.)

HD-02: Joseph Tate (i) vs. Taylor Harrell

Nonprofit employee Taylor Harrell, a veteran of several local campaigns, is challenging state Rep. Joe Tate for a district that covers parts of Detroit as well as some of the wealthy communities collectively known as the Grosse Pointes. Tate has the backing of business as well as labor, and Harrell was a Sanders supporter, so she’s to his left. She’s also backed by Southpaw, the PAC formed by 2018 gubernatorial candidate Abdul El-Sayed to support progressive candidates.

HD-03: Shri Thanedar vs. John Cromer vs. Donavan McKinney vs. China Cochran vs. Al Williams vs. Steven Lett (vs. Art Tyus and Keith McMurty)

Shri Thanedar is best known for his disastrous 2018 gubernatorial campaign, which was defined by his endless self-funding, shady business background, and total cluelessness. He’s now moved to Detroit and is trying to start smaller. A wide field of candidates aims to stop him, including nonprofit employee China Cochran, union official Donavan McKinney, and Democratic activist Al Williams. All of them would be better than Thanedar, but we worry his extensive self-funding will get him into the state House.

HD-04: Abraham Aiyash vs. a frankly baffling number of candidates for a district this size

Activist and former legislative staffer Abraham Aiyash is a Bernie Sanders-endorsed candidate for this Detroit seat left open by the tragic COVID death of state Rep. Isaac Robinson, and he’s the one to root for. The other major contenders include former legislative staffer Delorean Holmes, housing activist Michele Oberholtzer, attorney Tonya Myers Phillips, legislative staffer Frazier Kimpson, and former Hamtramck city councilor Shahab Ahmed.

HD-05: Cynthia A. Johnson (i) vs. Rita Ross (vs. Jermaine Tobey)

Rita Ross, a local doctor, is best known for who her sister is: Motown legend Diana Ross. She lost the 2018 primary for this seat by 7 votes, and is back for a rematch with winner Cynthia Johnson. The ideological divide is unclear here.

HD-07: Cynthia Thornton vs. Helena Scott vs. Nyia Bentley vs. Anistia Thomas vs. Lee Yancy vs. Elene Robinson (vs. Bernard Thompson)

LGBT activist and UAW union steward Cynthia Thornton is the choice of organized labor, and is the apparent favorite for this open seat. Businesswoman Anistia Thomas, perennial candidate Elene Robinson, paralegal Nyia Bentley, and businessman Lee Yancy round out the field; candidate Bernard Thompson has no online presence, and local media has been unable to contact him during his multiple campaigns.

HD-08: Stephanie Young vs. Reggie “Reg” Davis vs. George Etheridge vs. Anthony Bradford

Former Community Education Commission executive director Stephanie Young is the favorite of most of organized labor, while city planner George Etheridge has a handful of unions and incumbent Rep. Sherry Gay-Dagnogo, former Wayne County Commissioner Reg Davis has the local Chamber of Commerce, and city council employee Anthony Bradford seems to have fallen behind.

HD-09: Karen Whitsett (i) vs. Roslyn Ogburn (vs. Marc Cummings vs. Nicole Elcock)

Incumbent Karen Whitsett is best known for promoting hydroxychloroquine, a drug that does not treat COVID-19 (but can kill you.) Roslyn Ogburn is the choice of everyone from Bernie Sanders to the Michigan Democratic establishment, who are rightfully tired of Whitsett’s dangerous antics.

HD-10: Mary Cavanagh vs. Marcus Cummings vs. Kevin Harris vs. Steele P. Hughes vs. Brenda Hill vs. Diajah Ruffin vs. Tyson Kelley vs. Valli Smith

This appears to be a contest between local pastor Kevin Harris, a criminal justice reform advocate who previously served time in prison and is endorsed by most local unions, and Mary Cavanagh, the daughter of former state Rep. Phil Cavanagh and the choice of the local Chamber of Commerce. We don’t like dynasties and we don’t like Chamber of Commerce endorsements.

Also in the race are community organizer Marcus Cummings, workers’ rights activist Brenda Hill, conflict resolution specialist Steele Hughes, 13th Congressional District Democratic Party treasurer Diajah Ruffin, pastor Tyson Kelley, and social worker Valli Smith.

HD-12: Alex Garza (i) vs. Derrick Gyorkos vs. Edward Martell 

Since losing badly in this seat in 2016, Ed Martell has become Romulus school board President, but he hasn’t gained any notable supporters since his 2016 run; incumbent Alex Garza should dispatch him as easily as then-Rep. Erika Geiss did in 2016. Derrick Gyorkos seems to have even less of a chance than Martell. We’re only mentioning him because we want you to see this masterpiece

HD-13: Bill Colovos vs. Timothy Estheimer vs. Tullio Liberati

Southgate city councilman Bill Colovos, Southgate board of education member Timothy Estheimer, and businessman Tullio Liberati are running in a contest that doesn’t have clear ideological contrasts. Liberati, the brother of retiring state Rep. Frank Liberati, may have a name recognition advantage, but his opponents are both elected officials.

HD-21: Ethan Petzold vs. Ranjeev Puri

Obama administration alum Ranjeev Puri is a clear favorite over Democratic activist Ethan Petzold, with groups across the spectrum of the Democratic Party backing him (including progressive groups like Southpaw and Democracy for America.)

HD-22: Michael James Anderson vs. Ryan Nelson vs. Richard Steenland

Roseville City Clerk Richard Steenland is the favorite in this open seat, but Roseville Board of Education member Michael James Anderson has a handful of unions on his side.

HD-27: Crystal Bailey vs. Kevin Kresch vs. Robert Lathrop vs. Matt Stoel vs. Regina Weiss vs. Kelli Williams (vs. Dan Tuck and Martin Tutwiler)

Oak Park City Councilor Regina Weiss, a Detroit public school teacher, seems to lead a crowded field which also includes attorney Kevin Kresch, union official Kelli Williams, and Oak Park School District Trustee Crystal Bailey. Weiss and Kresch have the most endorsements from organized labor, progressive groups, and Michigan Democratic politicians, though Weiss leads Kresch in endorsements.

HD-34: Cynthia Neeley (i) vs. Claudia Perkins-Milton (vs. Deltonya Burns, Diana Phillips, and Arthur Woodson)

State Rep. Cynthia Neeley, the wife of Flint mayor Sheldon Neeley, faces a rematch with Claudia Perkins-Milton, an activist responding to the Flint water crisis; Neeley is running for her first full term, after winning the special election to succeed her husband in the state house upon his resignation to become mayor. Neeley won the Democratic nomination in that special election with less than 30% of the vote, and special election winners are often especially vulnerable in their first regular primary.

HD-35: Kyra Harris Bolden (i) vs. Shadia Martini 

Shadia Martini is best described as a favorite of radical centrist Twitter, and one of her policy priorities is tax cuts to benefit her business as a real estate agent. Please vote for Bolden.

HD-37: Mike Bridges vs. Randy Bruce vs. Samantha Steckloff

Farmington Hills city councilors Michael Bridges and Samantha Steckloff, and their former colleague Randy Bruce, are facing off for the nomination here; all are serious candidates, but Steckloff is a clear favorite with near-unanimous support from local politicians and labor unions, despite Bruce’s significant self-funding.

HD-53: Yousef Rabhi (i) vs. Sam Larson

Normally, we’d be thrilled about a serious primary challenge to a member of Democratic leadership, but Democratic Floor Leader Yousef Rabhi is quite progressive, and challenger Sam Larson talks up bipartisanship in a way that undercuts his otherwise progressive platform.

HD-60: Stephanie Moore vs. Julie Rogers

The primary between Kalamazoo County Commissioners Stephanie Moore and Julie Rogers for this seat left open by incumbent Jon Hoadley’s congressional campaign was upended when Rogers resigned as chair of the commission just a few weeks ago. The day after she did so, her colleagues released a letter saying she was asked to resign because of a pattern of, among other things, staff mistreatment and public intoxication affecting her government duties. Rogers denies everything, but among the signatories of the letter was a commissioner who had endorsed her campaign (and did not withdraw his endorsement.) Both Moore and Rogers have significant support from organized labor and elected officials, but Rogers is, or at least was, the choice of more of them. It remains to be seen what this controversy will do to this primary, but whoever wins it is all but assured a seat in the legislature.

HD-95: Clint Bryant vs. Carly Hammond vs. Amos O’Neal (vs. Brandell Adams and James Graham)

Saginaw County Commissioner Amos O’Neal is a clear favorite for this open seat, with overwhelming support from politicians and labor unions, but Saginaw City Councilor Clint Bryant and activist Carly Hammond are each running spirited campaigns. Of the three, Hammond is clearly the furthest left.

Wayne County Prosecutor: Kym Worthy (i) vs. Victoria Burton-Harris

Another prosecutorial election with major implications for criminal justice reform? Yup! This one’s in Wayne County, which includes all of Detroit and some of its largest suburbs. Victoria Burton-Harris is taking on incumbent Kym Worthy on a platform that includes declining to prosecute drug possession, ending the use of cash bail, no longer sentencing children to life in prison, and seeking the release of some currently incarcerated people. Burton-Harris has the support of Bernie Sanders, singer John Legend, and a number of local politicians; her victory would transform thousands of lives in Wayne County.

Oakland County Executive: Dave Coulter (i) vs. Andy Meisner

Dave Coulter was appointed county executive by the Democratic-controlled county commission when longtime Republican incumbent L. Brooks Patterson died. He quickly decided he quite liked his new job, and jumped into the race for a full term--despite having previously endorsed County Treasurer Andy Meisner. Meisner is to Coulter’s left, though both are establishment politicians, and he is backed by groups such as Southpaw as a result--while Coulter has police unions.

Oakland County Prosecutor: Jessica Cooper (i) vs. Karen McDonald

Jessica Cooper is a fanatically punitive incumbent, so much so that much of the Michigan Democratic establishment has ditched her in favor of Karen McDonald, a reform-minded challenger who wants to end prosecution of marijuana possession and end the use of cash bail. Steve Descano’s victory over longtime prosecutor Ray Morrogh in suburban northern Virginia’s Fairfax County proved that criminal justice reform can win in affluent suburbs such as the ones that make up most of Oakland County; this is another chance to bring criminal justice reform to the suburbs.

Washtenaw County Prosecutor: Arianne Slay vs. Eli Savit vs. Hugo Mack

Eli Savit is in line with many successful reform-oriented DA candidates, promising to end the use of cash bail, expand the use of restorative justice, seek alternatives to incarceration, and reverse wrongful convictions and unjust sentences. His platform also promises to prosecute polluters--which is good--and corporations which exploit workers, specifically naming wage theft as an offense he would prosecute, to which we say: hell yes. Washtenaw County, which includes Ann Arbor and Ypsilanti, could lead the way in ending the golden age of white-collar crime.

Savit has a good chance of winning, too: with widespread support from Democratic politicians, labor unions, and progressive organizations, he has plenty of ways to persuade voters he’s a good choice.

His opponent, Arianne Slay, is clearly a status quo candidate; among her endorsers are Kym Worthy and the incumbent county sheriff, along with a long list of local politicians and a handful of unions. We don’t know what to expect here; either candidate could win.

Genesee County Prosecutor: David Leyton (i) vs. Trachelle Young

Trachelle Young, a former prosecutor, is challenging incumbent David Leyton on a vaguely reform-oriented platform; her past as a prosecutor calls her commitments into question somewhat, but Leyton is even less committed to reform, and every time a DA loses for being too punitive, it sends a message to other DAs that the tough-on-crime era has fallen out of favor with the public. (If they won’t end mass incarceration for moral reasons, the least we can do is give them a reason to do it for self-preservation.) Young additionally may benefit from having been a part of lawsuits related to the Flint water crisis, which has been a defining feature of life in Flint since 2014. (Also, Rick Snyder and his entire administration should not know a moment’s peace for as long as they walk the earth.)

No Republican is on the ballot in November, so whoever wins the Democratic nomination will take office next year in this county, home to Flint and its suburbs.