8/4 Primary Preview II

Missouri needs fewer state house districts

Missouri

MO-01: Lacy Clay (i) vs. Cori Bush (vs. Kat Bruckner)

For this race we really need to start in 2018, when Ferguson Black Lives Matter activist Cori Bush first challenged incumbent Lacy Clay. She was direly underfunded, and to outside observers (okay fine to us) it seemed like the last-minute money and national attention she got that year were going to a doomed campaign. That was correct in that she did wind up losing, but only 57% to 37%. Clearly, her story and the relationships she built in her community were strong, despite her not having the money to get the word out to too many voters.

From a bird’s eye view, it’s not wrong to say that in that race she did strongest in the southern, whiter part of the city. But that misses that she did very poorly in the wards of the city that are almost all white, just as she did in the wards that are almost all Black. Her strength really was in diverse, younger, more highly educated precincts. In other words, the places that resemble where voters are, judging from a variety of primaries in Missouri and nationally in the last few cycles, more likely to seek out primary challengers to vote for. 

For Bush, victory means expanding beyond her 2018 coalition, likely with older, more moderate Black voters. Reaching older, more traditional voters involves the money to reach them on paid media if you don’t have the option to go through traditional party channels. This cycle has been much better for her on that front. Her $570,000 so far is over three times better than 2018 to be specific. She has also, unlike 2018, received significant help from outside spending: $150,000 from Justice Democrats and $90,000 from Fight Corporate Monopolies, which appears to be a project of former Bernie Sanders campaign manager Faiz Shakir. Bush has outspent Clay on TV and radio; meanwhile, his digital ad presence is slim and he hasn’t run Facebook ads since May.

Clay is giving off mixed signals about how worried he is. One on hand, he’s not spending frantically on ads and in fact is still paying his sister’s law firm its customary $10,000 a month, but he’s gone not just negative, but into the realm of gutter politics. He’s called her corrupt and compared her to Trump in an ad, told the New York Times that her challenge is racist, and put out mailers attacking her for taking a picture with Linda Sarsour. In that mailer, the photo is altered so that Bush’s skin is darkened while Sarsour’s is not. The Bush campaign responded by decrying the photo manipulation as racist.

Others are clearly worried on behalf of Clay. The Congressional Black Caucus* sent out a mailer attacking Bush’s “radical left-wing agenda”. Nancy Pelosi dropped $14,000 in Clay’s campaign account on Thursday. 

Bush made inroads into the St. Louis County establishment in a way she didn’t in 2018. It’s not a lot, but she did get a handful of local officials on her side. The biggest name is St. Louis County Council Chair Lisa Gray.

Lacy Clay has always been lazy about campaigning, even in the face of challenges from elected officials in 2012 and 2014. That didn’t change in 2018, and it hasn’t changed now either. In all those races, Clay performed poorly, with less than ⅔ of the vote as an incumbent. But he didn’t truly come close to losing either. So maybe he thinks he doesn’t need to work hard to win against Bush and shouldn’t have to. Maybe he’s right. If we’re really, truly thinking about the difficulty of beating an incumbent who hasn’t done anything “wrong,” then yeah, we do think odds are better than not that he’s going to be right about that again. But we’ve underestimated Bush before, and we’ll say this: refusal to actually attempt to win over an electorate which is clearly moving out from under one’s feet is not the mark of a politician who is long for their office. Clay’s days in Congress are numbered.

*Okay, so we technically can’t say it was them, since the source was the Protecting Our Vote SuperPAC, but the CBC PAC provides most of its funding, and its treasurer is on the CBC Foundation’s Board of Directors and used to run the CBC PAC’s independent expenditures, so it’s pretty obvious what’s going on.

SD-05: Megan Ellyia Green vs. Steve Roberts vs. Michelle Sherod 

Unlike in MO-01, which has seen a whirlwind of changes in the last month, SD-05 is roughly where it was when we introduced it last month. At the risk of shortchanging you, we’re just going to reprint what we said then.

Megan Ellyia Green is running for SD-05 with the endorsement of Bernie Sanders, the SEIU, Working Families Party, DSA, and Unite Here, among others. Green is an alderwoman in St. Louis, who was first elected to the 15th Ward in a 2014 special election, impressively doing so as an independent in a race with a Democratic nominee. In 2019 she ran for Board of Alderman President, a city-wide office, and lost a close 3-way contest with 31% to the winner’s 36% and the runner-up’s 32%. She did best in the young and majority-white-but-diverse southeast of the city. 

That election serves as a convenient prelude to this one, which takes place in a district roughly coterminous with the city. This election is also a three-way race (two others will also be on the ballot). Of the three, state Representative and chairman of the House’s Black Caucus Steve Roberts, who has most of the city’s Black establishment behind him, is generally seen as the frontrunner. Former McCaskill staffer Michelle Sherod is raising a lot of money and is a generally moderate option in the race. Also in the race are perennial candidate Bill Haas, and McFarlane Duncan, who ran for state house in 2012 and hasn’t updated his campaign page since January. Green is the only progressive of the bunch, supporting a wide range of positions that you would expect from a Bernie/WFP/DSA endorsed candidate, as well as planks like a Homeless Bill of Rights and the decriminalization of HIV, issues that are often overlooked. 

One hurdle Green faces is that she’s a white candidate running in a majority-Black district. Or, rather, it was when it was drawn. It might have slipped under majority-Black status by voting-age population. Regardless, the primary electorate will likely be majority-Black, though not overwhelmingly so, since the white population in this district is very Democratic. In her 2019 race for Aldermanic President, Green did very poorly in the heavily Black north of the city. Green is the only serious white candidate in the race, but it’ll still be difficult for Green to win unless she’s made serious inroads with Black voters since 2019.

SD-07: Michael Brown vs. Greg Razer

State Rep. Greg Razer, a pretty mainstream Democrat, is by far and away the favorite in this Kansas City district. The Kansas City establishment and labor unions are behind him, and his only competition is former state Rep. Michael Brown, whose plan to extend his political career beyond 2012 term limits hit a wall when he placed 4th in a Kansas City Council primary. His current attempt to revive his career isn’t going anywhere either.

SD-09: Ryan Myers vs. Barbara Anne Washington

State Rep. Barbara Anne Washington is the choice of organized labor and the state Sierra Club, while Raytown Alderman Ryan Myers has little in the way of notable supporters or specific policies. Washington seems like a slight favorite.

SD-13: Alan Green vs. Angela Walton Mosley vs. Tommy Pierson Jr.

This majority-Black district in the north of St. Louis County features three big names: current state reps Alan Green and Tommy Pierson Jr, and Angela Mosley who is the sister of a St. Louis Alderman and is married to a state rep. Al Green is an anti-abortion hardliner who voted for Missouri’s recent unconstitutional ban on all abortion after 8 weeks, as well for as other extreme measures. Walton Mosley seems to be recognized as a legacy case, leaving Pierson almost by default. He’s fine, mostly a party-line vote.

HD-19: Ingrid Burnett (i) vs. Phyllis Hardwick vs. Wick Thomas

This race is mostly notably for Wick Thomas, a “pansexual glam rockstar”. They probably don’t stand much of a chance, even if this majority-minority district is primed for a progressive takeover. 

HD-22: Yolanda Young (i) vs. Bryce Bradford vs. Jeff Francis vs. Sheoni Givens vs. Kevon Graves

Yolanda Young, who won a special election in 2019, is running for a full term. Bryce Bradford, who has a great platform and the socialist media presence of a typical 24 year old lefty poster is the furthest/most reliably left candidate in the race. Additionally, Jeff Francis ran for the special as a Green Party candidate and got a not-terrible 7%. However, the greatest threat to Young probably comes from Sheoni Givens, who runs a homeless shelter.

HD-23: Derron Black vs. Michael Johnson

Derron Black doesn’t seem like a particularly serious candidate, while Michael Johnson is the choice of organized labor and outgoing incumbent Barbara Anne Washington. He should win easily.

HD-24: Sammie Arnold vs. Connor Nowalk vs. Emily Weber

Emily Weber, who got her start volunteering for Sharice Davids just across the state line, is the establishment pick but she supports policies like a $15/hr minimum wage and has the endorsement of Our Revolution, a step up from her less policy-driven opponents.

HD-25: Patty Lewis vs. Drew Rogers

Healthcare technology executive Patty Lewis looks like the favorite here, but has a decent platform and progressive endorsements, while lawyer Drew Rogers has corporate and anti-homeless former Kansas City mayor Sly James supporting him. 

HD-36: Mark Sharp (i) vs. Laura Loyacono

Incumbent Mark Sharp recently came under fire for past homophobic and misogynistic Facebook posts, as well as records unearthed from his time as a Texas public school teacher showing he was reprimanded for showing profanity on social media to his students (as well as for showing a video about police brutality; Sharp is Black, and the district he taught in was mostly white, so that latter reprimand was almost certainly racism rather than a legitimate grievance.) His opponent, Laura Loyacono, is vague on policy, but she’s never called women “pieces of meat,” so she’s an upgrade on the incumbent.

HD-67: Aaron Craig vs. Neil Smith

Neil Smith has more money here, but Aaron Craig has the AFL-CIO endorsement, so let’s hope for him.

HD-68: Jay Mosley (i) vs. Mike Moehlenkamp

Jay Mosley, husband of Angela Walton Mosley from SD-13, above, is probably safe. His moderate, white opponent has some endorsements from the more moderate, white part of the district, but that’s not enough for a victory.

HD-74: Mike Person (i) vs. Gary Johnson (vs. Yolonda Fortson)

Mike Person somehow nearly lost his special election in this heavily Democratic district to a gadfly Libertarian Party candidate in 2019? Sounds fake, but sure. Now he’s being challenged by… Gary Johnson? That coincidence is pretty funny, but the Gary Johnson in this race, who has been included on the various St. Louis County progressive slates, is serious. And would be a serious upgrade from the mediocre incumbent.

HD-75: Alan Gray (i) vs. Teona McGhaw-Boure

Teona McGhaw-Boure, a criminal defense paralegal and the great grandniece of civil rights hero Fannie Lou Hamer, is running as a progressive and on her third round with more moderate establishment politician Alan Gray, who beat her 64-36 in 2016 and 65-35 in 2018.

HD-77: Kimberly-Ann Collins vs. Darryl Gray

Reverend and civil rights activist Darryl Gray is the obvious choice here. His work on reducing police violence, both on the streets and in legislative chambers (he was formerly a state senator) are a rare combination. But then again, Kimberly Ann-Collins, a strong advocate for the unhoused who nearly unseated more moderate rep. Nick Roberts in 2018 also seems like an obvious choice. It’s a rare treat to see a primary between two candidates who clearly deserve to win, and either could.

HD-83: Jo Doll vs. Tyler Merkel

Both Jo Doll and Tyler Merkel strike progressive tones and support important policies like the $15/hr minimum wage and criminal justice reform. Merkel has support from labor unions and progressive groups, however, which means you should probably root for him. 

St. Louis County Executive: Sam Page (i) vs. Mark Mantovani vs. Jake Zimmerman (vs. Jamie Tolliver)

St. Louis County had an executive for a while who everyone knew was crooked, or at least an ethically dubious sleazeball. The feds finally nabbed him in 2018, after which Sam Page was elevated to the position. This special election will be his first time facing voters for this office. Mark Mantovani had nearly primaried that corrupt incumbent out in 2016, and Jake Zimmerman is the County Assessor. The ideological lines in this race are unusually stark for what is often regarded as a local government position. 

Page is a fairly typical Democrat, while Mantovani is the worst kind of moderate. He’s a businessman. He’d like to remind you he’s a businessman. Have you heard that he did business? It’s because he’s a businessman. The two major groups supporting him right now are cops and developers, and there’s a good chance he only got as far as he did last time because people wanted the other guy out. In contrast, Zimmerman is running as a progressive—actually, as the progressive. He’s promised that he’ll be a reformer, sweeping out the old boys club and holding both police and big businesses accountable. Page not as bad as the last guy? Cleaning out the last guy’s mess? Something nondescript like that, and his sort-of incumbency status probably contributes to that muddled message. People seem to like his coronavirus response, though, and that might be enough to save him. All three candidates could win here, though Page is a weak favorite.

Jackson County Sheriff: Darryl Forté (i) vs. Mike Sharp

This race is less about criminal justice reform and more about how former Sheriff Mike Sharp was sleeping with an employee, giving her money and promotions, and covering it up, all while she was suing the county for harassment, all of which he resigned for in 2018. Now he wants his job back. He should not get it back, nor is he likely to.

St. Louis Prosecutor: Kimberly Gardner (i) vs. Mary Pat Carl

Kim Gardner, in 2016, was one of the first of the modern wave of reform prosecutors in America, something the right has never stopped frothing at the mouth over (that, and her being a Black woman). It’s not just the right, however. She’s faced constant roadblocks, pressure, and outright hostility from officials in St. Louis itself who want to prevent a fairer criminal justice system by any means necessary. Now she’s facing a primary challenge from Mary Pat Carl, who she beat 47-24 in 2016. Carl has attacked her for a variety of nebulous things relating to effectiveness or working relationship, but sometimes she will just come out and say that Gardner should be nicer to the cops (who, as a reminder, threatened to remove her from office “by force”). It’s a campaign against both Gardner and the reform movement, and like last time we hope to see Carl lose, and she probably will, especially in the current environment.

St. Louis Sheriff: Vernon Betts (i) vs. Alfred Montgomery

Alfred Montgomery has received less attention from criminal justice organizations than Gardner, perhaps because his most recent job was beat cop, but this quieter race has still has high stakes. Montgomery, who worked under Betts until Mongtomery announced he was running for Betts’s job and Betts fired him, has picked up a lot of support, and from sources beyond the typical activist crowd. In a particularly dramatic caught-on-film moment on the campaign trail, Montgomery stopped by a small Betts campaign gathering, which immediately prompted Betts to threaten to hit him. Montgomery responded by saying “That’s the barriers we’re trying to break, that law enforcement mentality. You’re so upset that you think you can hit, and you can beat on people just because you wear a badge.”

Damn right.

Gardner’s biggest day-to-day roadblock to reform isn’t Missouri Republicans or Donald Trump. It’s the local police. Putting a like-minded sheriff in charge of them could seriously change things.

Washington

Note: Washington uses a legislative district similar to Arizona’s, in that each district elects one senator and two house members. But unlike Arizona, where the two house members are elected on the same ballot, in Washington the state House races are separated into two separate elections happening simultaneously in the same district, named Position 1 and Position 2. So, for instance, SD-69 would the senate race in the 69th district, while HD-69(1) and HD-69(2) would be two different elections for state house, happening in the same district, Position 1, and Position 2. Because that’s not needlessly complicated enough, Washington also uses California’s Top 2 ballot system, where every candidate runs on one primary ballot, and the top 2 vote getters advance to a general election runoff in November.

WA-02: Rick Larsen (i) vs. Jason Call

Rick Larsen ranks somewhere between Derek Kilmer and Adam Smith in terms of irritating Washington New Dems. His challenge comes from Jason Call, an active DSA member and Washington Democratic Central Committee member currently on the outs with the body after some intense arguments with more moderate members. Call put effort into getting the support of some local left groups and convincing a few party organizations to give a dual endorsement, but never raised much money, so he shouldn’t be expected to do well.

WA-06: Derek Kilmer (i) vs. Rebecca Parson

Rebecca Parson’s been running a professional, competent campaign for over a year now, but has, for whatever reason, not received a great deal of national attention. Parson is a Tacoma Area Commission on Disabilities member and tenants rights organizer running on a democratic socialist platform (she is a DSA member and endorsed by DSA national.) It’s a sharp contrast with incumbent Derek Kilmer, one of the House’s most moderate Democrats, who manages to mostly go unnoticed in discussions of bad Democrats. Parson has made much of Kilmer’s lack of support for Medicare for All and the Green New Deal, as well as a late campaign focus on his choice in June to sign onto a letter calling for cuts to Social Security.

Parson struggled with fundraising for most of her campaign, but in her most recent fundraising quarter, she raised over $100,000, which isn’t bad for a challenger, but probably isn’t enough to win a primary. Her plan, however, does not involve beating Kilmer in the August primary. Instead, she plans to beat the four Republicans in the race and move on to the top 2 runoff in November. Depending on how much the Republicans consolidate behind one candidate, this could reasonably require 20-35% of the Democratic vote, which isn’t that difficult - most serious Democratic challengers have found their way into that range. But Kilmer, unlike many centrists this cycle, has decided to go hard, early. He put about $600,000 into TV, digital, and mail ads, and accused Parson of, among other things, using “Trump’s strategy”. This is all just to prevent her from making it to November.

WA-10: Beth Doglio vs. Phil Gardner vs. Kristine Reeves vs. Marilyn Strickland vs. Joshua Collins vs. assorted others

After the retirement (and subsequent unretirement, see below) of Rep. Denny Heck, it looked like an incredibly crowded field was possible in a district that covers both Olympia and the Tacoma suburbs, but the field condensed to just five candidates, of whom three seem like plausible winners. State Rep. Beth Doglio of Olympia is running as the progressive candidate, touting her endorsement from Bernie Sanders, as well as a variety of labor and progessive groups. She is also backed by the Congressional Progressive Caucus, which has been getting aggressive in primaries of late. 

Her two main competitors are state Rep. Kristine Reeves and former Tacoma mayor Marilyn Strickland. Reeves is a moderate who has, like too many in Washington, opposed new taxation. She’s also found herself squeezed ideologically between the progressive Doglio and proud corporate stooge Marilyn Strickland. Strickland is best known for her time as mayor of Tacoma, and while we don’t have praise for her tenure, it’s what she did afterwards that’s most galling. She served as president of the Seattle Chamber of Commerce, and in that capacity ran Amazon’s vicious anti-left election campaign in 2019 in order to help them defeat a tax measure. Strickland has pulled out the big guns for this run: both living former governors of Washington, Christine Gregoire and Gary Locke. That’s not too surprising in a way - both were known as moderate, and in Locke’s case one who seemed like he was trying to beat up on the “pro-tax” elements of his party more than the GOP was. 

Denny Heck district director Phil Gardner is also running, but simply couldn’t raise money and is now mostly forgotten. And finally there’s Joshua Collins. Collins, a socialist truck driver, was originally challenging Heck in the primary before the latter’s retirement. He was mostly distinguished by his youth (age 26) and his strategy of recruiting donors and volunteers through an aggressive social media presence. For a time, depending on your usage of Twitter, TikTok, and Reddit, he may have been inescapable to you. 

His campaign hit a high point for a few months after Heck dropped out, but after a few months it imploded amidst a flurry of allegations regarding plagiarism, campaign fund misuse, and neglect of the community he’d cultivated. It all culminated with him deactivating his social media for a few days, and returning to say he was leaving the Democratic Party and running under a third party label. Beyond any specific problems, it seems like the campaign is just mismanaged, over their head, and going to wind up as a monument to squandered potential more than anything else.

The wide smattering of Republicans in this race makes it far from clear if one or two Democrats will finish in the top 2.

Lt. Governor: Marko Liias vs. Denny Heck

When Cyrus Habib, a progressive with a unique story and personal charm, was elected Lieutenant Governor in 2016, it seemed obvious that he was going to run for governor when Jay Inslee retired. And then a few months ago Habib announced his intention to retire from politics and join the priesthood. Needless to say, this caught everyone off guard, and did so right before the filing deadline, so the Democratic field speaks to the requirement that anyone who wanted to run had to be able to mount a statewide campaign at a moment’s notice. That’s probably why there are only two of them, and neither is all that fantastic. 

Of the two, Marko Liias is the obvious choice, and is backed by Habib, more progressive labor unions, and Seattle alt-weekly The Stranger. The reason he’s the obvious choice is his opponent, Denny Heck, a centrist Congressman who was going to retire until this seat opened up. Heck has much more establishment support and name recognition, and has probably secured a ticket to November. Liias needs to make second place here and then figure out how to keep Republicans from voting en masse for Heck in November. 

SD-05: Mark Mullet (i) vs. Ingrid Anderson

Sen. Tim Sheldon literally caucuses with the Republicans, so we can’t quite say that Mark Mullet is the most infuriating Democratic senator, but dear god is a negative presence in the body. Mullet is a centrist on just about everything, but nothing tops his furious, relentless opposition to taxes of all kinds and at all levels of government. Given Democrats’ relatively narrow 28-21 majority in the chamber, which relies on one district Trump won by 9% and another he lost by just .01%, the corporations of the state recognize the utility of having an anti-tax warrior in a safely blue district. So do the Republicans, who declined to put up a candidate this year because they knew they needed to prop up Mullet.

The woman who conservative interests in the state are desperate to keep from the Senate is nurse Ingrid Anderson, who has the support of not just progressive groups, but labor and more mainstream Democratic organizations such as NARAL. This is the most expensive race in the state, historically so. PACs on both sides have spent hundreds of thousands so far. Since both candidates are destined for the general election, this election is mostly a trial run to see current support for Mullet and Anderson.

HD-11(1): Zach Hudgins (i) vs. David Hackney

Zach Hudgins is a landlord, and not only a landlord, but a landlord who voted against the tenant’s rights bill that was passed last session. This inspired a challenge from Washington State Human Rights Commissioner David Hackney, who is also emphasizing criminal justice reform. Hackney has been endorsed by not just The Stranger, but the considerably more conservative Seattle Times. This race has striking similarity to Oregon’s SD-24 primary in 2018, when Shemia Fagan ran against an incumbent state senator who was also a landlord that had just voted against tenant protections. She won that race 62-20.

HD-22(2): Jessica Bateman vs. Mary Ellen Biggerstaff vs. Glenda Breiler (vs. Anthony Novack)

Beth Doglio is leaving this Olympia district open to run for Congress. Establishment and labor choice Jessica Bateman is a heavy favorite here, and she seems fine, mostly because the Olympia establishment is actually fairly progressive, but both other Democrats in the primary would be even better. Enrolled member of the Colville Tribes Glenda Breiler has spent her entire career in social work and working with the relationship between Native American tribes and the government, while Mary Ellen Biggerstaff is a leftist running with the DSA’s endorsement who has big plans for single-payer and social housing. Of the two Bateman challengers, Breiler, who has raised nearly as much money as Bateman, seems more likely to beat her. While this is a pretty Democratic district, only one Republican is running, so chances are high this race will decide the next house member.

HD-23(1): Leslie Daugs vs. Tara Simmons (vs. James Beall and Lou Krukar)

Progressive candidate Tara Simmons is a heavy favorite here, and thank god. Her opponent is Leslie Daugs, a Bremerton (pop 42,000) Councilor who’s running to represent “the lost middle.”

HD-29(2): Steve Kirby (i) vs. Sharlett Mena

Former Tacoma City Councilor and 20-year House incumbent Steve Kirby has spent his entire tenure pissing off progressives by voting far too often with Republicans. He was one of the three holdouts on gay marraige in 2012, and has recently been very supportive of payday lenders. After putting up with him for far too long, progressives have a candidate in this race: Sharlett Mena, the daughter of immigrant farm workers who worked on immigrant outreach in the federal government before taking her current role in Washington State Department of Ecology. Mena is backed by Bernie Sanders and Pramila Jayapal, among a slew of other local progressive politicians and organizations. Kirby’s response has gotten ugly, calling her an opportunist and a carpetbagger, a particularly ugly term for a old white guy to use against a Latina child of immigrants considering that it was coined for white southerners to rail against supporters of Reconstruction.

HD-30(1): Cheryl Hurst vs. Jamila Taylor

This open seat is almost certainly going to Jamila Taylor, who has the support of just about any Democrat in the state you can think of. Cheryl Hurst, a centrist local AirBnB host who campaigns by standing on a street corner with her name on a sign, has come off to just about everyone as having a loose connection to reality.

HD-32(1): Cindy Ryu (i) vs. Shirley Sutton (vs. Kevin Smith)

HD-32(2): Lauren Davis (i) vs. Grey Peterson

Cindy Ryu and Lauren Davis, mainstream Democrat, are probably going to win this in a walk, but Shirley Sutton, running on a “no austerity” platform has found some popularity with local Democratic activists, as has Grey Petersen, so maybe it’ll be closer than expected.

HD-36(2): Liz Berry vs. Jerry Cohen vs. Sarah Reyneveld

While attorney Sarah Reyneveld and nonprofit director Liz Berry are both solid candidates with progressive goals, Berry is the better choice here. This is apparent from both Reyneveld’s willingness to cut government jobs to balance the post-COVID budget, and from Berry’s support from the bulk of Seattle’s progressive community. Reyneveld has some liberal groups, as well as some labor support, though hers tends towards the more moderate trades unions. Cohen is some “business-friendly” centrist whose support will probably come from Republican voters, since no one from that party is running. This race has three candidates total running for 2 spots in November, so it’s just a matter of who gets eliminated

HD-37(1): Sharon Tomiko Santos (i) vs. John Stafford vs. William Burroughs (no, not that one)

Santos is a good example of the corporate-friendly, liberal-but-incrementalist Democrats who ran the state a decade or two ago. Indeed, she was one of them. Considering this Seattle district has a lot of left-wing voters in it now (including much of Kshama Sawant’s district), Santos is a good target for a leftist primary challenge. Unfortunately, the main challenge she drew was from John Stafford, who, well…his website contains phrases like “on a means-tested basis” and “it is also important that landlords are treated fairly”. He’d be a lateral move at best. A third candidate, William Burroughs (no, not that one) is probably the most progressive, but also refused to accept money this campaign, so we don’t see him getting far.

HD-37(2): Kirsten Harris-Talley vs. Chukundi Salisbury (vs. Andy Goeres and Robert Redwine)

Kirsten Harris-Talley was appointed to the Seattle City Council for a partial term in 2017-2019, and in that short time she made the incredibly gutsy decision to come out in favor of the head tax, a major leftist priority and controversial proposal to tax large employers in the city (ie, Amazon) per employee to fund housing. It had only recently been voted down 7-2, so she was not jumping on the bandwagon for some uncontroversial policy. Chukundi Salisbury seems fine? There’s not much to say about him, especially compared to Harris-Talley, who looks like a favorite in this race.

HD-43(2): Frank Chopp (i) vs. Jessi Murray vs. Sherae Lascelles

Frank Chopp spent 20 years as Speaker of the House, before stepping down in 2019. He is well known, well connected, flush with cash, and disappointingly moderate for a man who represents the leftiest, Seattle-iest district in the state. He wasn’t corrupt, or outright hostile towards progressives in his role as Speaker, but he did govern with an eye towards the swingy suburban districts many Democrats in the caucus represented (or at least the idea of those districts held by a politician such as him who entered politics during the Republican Revolution). It’s hard not to lay many of Washington’s governing failures such as its regressive tax rates and homelessness at his feet. 

Seattle’s left has had a problem with Chopp for a while. In 2012, an outspoken first-time candidate challenged him under the banner of a little-known minor party, Socialist Alternative, and received an impressive 29.4% of the vote. Her name was Kshama Sawant. Now that Chopp is no longer Speaker and Seattle’s appetite for left-wing politicians is more established, Chopp faces serious opposition once again. He will almost certainly make it to the general election, so this is almost a primary for the right to challenge him. 

Jessi Murray is the more mainstream option. She’s charted out a path which is clearly more progressive than Chopp, raised a decent amount of money, and still found herself in a tough spot. She still stands a good chance of making it to the general election, of course, but faces a fundamental problem where the Seattle left is of the mind that if they’re going to go for it, they may as well go for it. The choice of the left is Sherae Lascelles, who is running, much like Sawant, as a proud socialist under a minor party label, in her case the Seattle People’s Party. Lascelles has endured homelessness and living as a sex worker while Seattle’s police doing all they could to crush sex workers. Lascelles started two nonprofits for sex workers’ rights, one of which was an important part of the push for sex work decriminalization, of which they say did not go nearly far enough. They also want not just new housing, but decommodification of housing. 

Sherae Lascelles is one of the most exciting candidates for state legislature in the country right now, and while they face an uphill battle against Chopp, they have a good chance of making it to that general election. 2017 leftist mayoral candidate Nikkita Oliver, current HD-37(2) candidate Kirsten Harris-Talley, and alt-week The Stranger, which as a rule does not endorse fringe candidates, have all endorsed them.

HD-44(2): Anne Anderson vs. April Berg

LD-44, in the northern suburbs of Seattle, voted for Clinton and Obama by double digits, but for whatever reason was somehow held by a Republican until a tough re-election loss in 2018. Hopefully that recent history doesn’t lead Democratic voters to gun shyness in the primary, because otherwise it seems like April Berg--the more progressive candidate, the stronger fundraiser, and the favorite of labor--should be the runaway favorite against her painfully centrist opponent Anne Anderson.