8/20 Primary Preview
Alaska, Florida, and Wyoming
Florida
SD-05 (Jacksonville)
Tracie Davis (i) vs. Francky Jeanty
Result: Davis 95.2%, Jeanty 4.8% | Davis wins
In Jacksonville, Democratic politics is a constant battle between normal-enough liberals and extreme social conservatives. State Sen. Tracie Davis, first elected in 2022 in an expensive race, is a member of the former group. Fortunately, Davis isn’t facing a serious challenger this year. Political newcomer and motivational writer Francky Jeanty is running against her, and he has raised very little money. Davis will win handily.
SD-15 (parts of downtown Orlando and northwestern suburbs)
Geraldine Thompson (i) vs. Randolph Bracy
Result: Thompson 60.8%, Bracy 39.2% | Thompson wins
Geraldine Thompson has been in and out of the state legislature since 2006, bouncing from the House to the Senate and launching an unsuccessful campaign for Congress in 2016. She’s represented this district, which includes parts of downtown Orlando and northwest Orange County, since 2022. Thompson is a solid liberal, but doesn’t make a lot of waves. She faces a primary challenge from former state Sen. Randolph Bracy, who was last seen losing to Maxwell Frost in FL-10 in 2022. Bracy served in the state legislature for a decade, first in the House and then the Senate, and his sister, LaVon Bracy Davis, is currently a member of the state House. Bracy is much more conservative and corporate-friendly than Thompson. For example, he received a “preferred” rating—though not an “endorsement”—from Florida Family Action, a right-wing group.
While Thompson and Bracy represent pretty different molds of Democrats, the biggest controversy in the race so far has been a lawsuit that Bracy threatened to file against Thompson for allegedly living outside of the district. At a press conference that Bracy held to announce the lawsuit, Thompson crashed the conference, took the podium, and said that while she does own a home outside of the district, she lives in the district with her daughter—which is admittedly not a great defense. More interestingly, however, Thompson “suggest[ed] Bracy’s lawsuit is retaliation over a failed romantic pursuit involving her family.” Bracy denied the allegation, but did not seem to deny that he had a romantic entanglement with a member of Thompson’s family. Weird.
Anyway, both Thompson and Bracy are pretty known quantities in the district, and though Thompson has outraised Bracy, it’s not by a commanding amount—and neither candidate has raised a lot anyway. Bracy’s campaign is curiously offline—his Twitter account has not been updated from his 2022 congressional campaign and he has no website or other social media presence. Thompson is probably favored here, but a Bracy win wouldn’t be crazy.
SD-25 (south Orlando and Osceola County)
Kristen Arrington vs. Alan Grayson vs. Carmen Torres
Result: Arrington 50.5%, Torres 25.6%, Grayson 23.9% | Arrington wins
State Sen. Vic Torres is term-limited in this majority Latine district, which includes all of Osceola County and parts of south Orange County—where most of the hotels, resorts, and theme parks are located. Somewhat surprisingly, Torres hasn’t laid out the red carpet for his daughter, former state Rep. and current Orange County Property Appraiser Amy Mercado. No, instead, he’s done that for his wife, Carmen Torres, a long-time Democratic activist in the area. Torres has two main opponents: state Rep. Kristen Arrington, wife of Osceola County Commissioner Brandon Arrington, and former Congressman Alan Grayson, who dropped his longshot U.S. Senate campaign to inexplicably run for state Senate, despite showing no previous interest in state politics.
It’s tough to tell who’s favored here. Torres has the support of much of the Democratic establishment at the state and local level, and probably benefits from being the only Latine candidate in this district. Arrington, on the other hand, has locked up the endorsements of most of the state’s unions. Arrington is also outraising and outspending Torres somewhat significantly.
Yet Grayson is the wild card in the race. He obviously benefits from sky-high name recognition, but is a deeply polarizing figure. Grayson last won an election in 2014 and a competitive Democratic primary in 2008. Since then, he’s racked up an impressive series of losses: a 2016 campaign for the U.S. Senate (lost); a 2018 campaign for FL-09, running against Congressman Darren Soto in the Democratic primary (lost); a 2020 write-in campaign for FL-06, running against Republican Congressman Michael Waltz (ostensibly to prevent Waltz from abusing the franking privilege); and a 2022 campaign for FL-10 (lost). Grayson hasn’t raised much, but has self-funded a good amount—and can probably still pull a non-trivial amount of the support of Orlando-area Democrats, so he has a non-zero chance of winning.
Arrington is probably the slightly better candidate here—despite some past ethical issues and her support from the state corporate lobby, the fact that Orlando progressives have rallied around her gives us confidence—but Torres would be fine. However, Arrington, Grayson, and Torres all have plausible paths to winning a plurality of the vote here.
(Correction: in the initial version of this issue we incorrectly stated that Kristen Arrington had been endorsed by state Rep. Anna Eskamani, state Sen.-elect Carlos Guillermo Smith, and the Associated Industries of Florida. Those endorsements were from 2022. We apologize for the error.)
SD-35 (western Broward County)
Rodney Jacobs vs. Chad Klitzman vs. Barbara Sharief
Result: Sharief 46.6%, Klitzman 34.9%, Jacobs 18.5% | Sharief wins
State Sen. Lauren Book has always been a bit of an oddity in the legislature—she’s the daughter of extremely prominent lobbyist Ron Book, who’s played both sides of the aisle, but has racked up a reasonably progressive record in the legislature. Regardless, she’s term-limited this year—though very likely to remain in Florida politics in some capacity—and there’s a tough primary to succeed her in this Broward County-based district. The candidates are:
Barbara Sharief, former Broward County Mayor/Commissioner, multiple-time candidate for higher office (including this State Senate seat in 2022)
Chad Klitzman, Democratic election lawyer and 2020 candidate for Broward County Supervisor of Elections
Rodney Jacobs Jr., head of a Miami police watchdog board
All three candidates are campaigning as solid progressives, but Klitzman is probably the best one among the three. Sharief is a former Republican who made sizable contributions to the RNC in the leadup to the 2004 presidential election, has faced allegations that her health care company has overbilled Medicaid, and seemed to support anti-choice state Rep. James Bush III (more on him below) in his unsuccessful 2022 re-election campaign. Jacobs, who is probably the third wheel in this race, has benefited from mailers that have falsely accused Klitzman of supporting Republican candidates that were funded, in part, by Republican lobbyist Michael Corcoran (the brother of Richard Corcoran, DeSantis’s apparatchik at New College who has facilitated a conservative takeover of the tiny liberal arts college).
While Klitzman hasn’t made a lot of waves, being a standard-issue Democrat without ethical issues or secret support from Republicans is good enough in this race. Plus, Klitzman would be one of the first openly gay state senators in the state.
Regardless, Klitzman and Sharief are probably the two likeliest candidates to win. They’ve been competitive with each other financially, with Jacobs further behind, and have both racked up endorsements from the local Democratic establishment. The demographic makeup of the electorate could play a significant role in the outcome—Klitzman is white while Sharief is Black, and both groups cast a significant share of the Broward Democratic primary vote.
HD-13 (west Jacksonville)
Angie Nixon (i) vs. Brenda Priestly Jackson
State Rep. Angie Nixon is one of the few openly progressive members of the state legislature—she beat conservative Democrat Kim Daniels (more on her below) in 2020 and beat back a Daniels-backed challenger in 2022. She faces a tough challenger this year in Brenda Priestly Jackson, a former Jacksonville City Councilwoman who’s been active in Jacksonville-area politics for decades. Priestly Jackson has criticized Nixon’s ineffectiveness in the legislature, which is coded language for not playing nicely with Republicans. Priestly Jackson has played nice with Republicans for much of her career—when civil rights groups challenged the Jacksonville City Council map, the City Council hired a Republican election lawyer to defend the maps and Priestly Jackson was vocally opposed to the map adopted in the final settlement, which undid an incumbent-protection gerrymander. She’s also received campaign contributions from state and local Republican groups and a “preferred” rating from Florida Family Action.
Nixon is probably favored here. She’s significantly outraised Priestly Jackson, both through her official campaign account and an affiliated committee; has support from local labor unions; and hasn’t given conservatives in the area a real opening. Priestly Jackson can’t be counted out—name recognition in a low-attention race isn’t nothing—but you should expect a Nixon win here.
HD-14 (downtown and south Jacksonville)
Kim Daniels (i) vs. Lloyd Caulker vs. Theresa Wakefield-Gamble
State Rep. Kim Daniels is one of the worst people in Florida politics—and it’s unclear why she’s even a member of the Democratic Party, let alone how she has repeatedly won contested Democratic primaries. We’ve written about her in 2020 and 2022 before and, as we did in 2022, we’ll quote from our 2020 synopsis:
She’s absolutely, and comically, terrible for reasons that are difficult to fit into this newsletter. Let’s try. For a start, all of these are actual Kim Daniels quotes:
“You can talk about the Holocaust, but the Jews, they own everything!”
“I thank God for slavery […]if it wasn’t for slavery, I might be somewhere in Africa, worshipping a tree.”
“We curse gay pride to the root and declare that i[t] is nothing to be proud of; it is an abomination in the eyes of the Lord […]We come against the witchcraft that is working behind the scenes of the homosexual agenda.”
It won’t surprise you that Daniels is aggressively anti-abortion, introduced legislation to mandate Bible studies in public schools, and, while she was on the Jacksonville City Council, opposed an anti-LGBT discrimination ordinance, drawing a bizarre analogy to Biblical Egypt, which she said also had anti-LGBT discrimination laws, along with laws allowing bestiality and necrophilia.
After losing renomination to Angie Nixon, 60-40%, in 2020, Daniels ran again for a different district in 2022, and won 47% of the vote in the Democratic primary. Daniels has a tough time winning a majority of the vote in a closed Democratic primary, so a split field helps her—and, unfortunately, that’s exactly what’s happened this year, too. Daniels faces two challengers: Lloyd Caulker, a former pastor and consultant, and Theresa Wakefield-Gamble.
Caulker is, uh, strange. Florida Politics reported that Caulker is the registered owner of Salvation Navy, a “business” that describes itself on LinkedIn as “Strategist against the Commandery of Knights Templer, Consistory of Sublime Princes of the Royal Secret Etc.” Naturally, Caulker also says that Jesus Christ called on him to run and praised Ron DeSantis as a “great leader” during COVID. He also professes no knowledge at all about Kim Daniels. Okay then.
Wakefield-Gamble is a more normal candidate—though she does unfortunately describe herself as a “Serial Entrepreneur” and a “Disruptive Thinker” on her website—and is running against Daniels from the left, focusing specifically on solving affordable housing and homelessness. But Wakefield-Gamble hasn’t attracted a ton of local support yet and is being outspent by Daniels, though not too badly. Added to that the fact that Caulker is also running—though, honestly, he might take votes from Daniels—and she has a tough race. Wakefield-Gamble has gotten some endorsements from state and local Democratic Party caucuses and committees, as well as SEIU, but no group has seemed to do very much advocacy on her behalf so far. Daniels is probably favored for re-election, but Florida progressives need to make defeating her a big priority going forward.
HD-44 (south Orlando)
Rita Harris (i) vs. Daisy Morales
In 2022, state Rep. Daisy Morales was defeated for re-election by Rita Harris in a largely non-ideological contest that largely focused on Morales’s oddness. Harris, a white candidate running in a majority-Latine district, defeated Morales 54-46%, and Morales is running again. This is an open primary, but given that this is a 61% Biden district and there aren’t very clear ideological stakes, the fact that Republicans and independents can vote probably won’t matter much. The state and local political establishment have rallied behind Harris, who’s also outraised and outspent Morales by a solid margin. Morales has raised pitifully little, but has loaned herself $25,000, so she has resources to get her message out. Nonetheless, Harris is the strong favorite here.
HD-46 (Kissimmee and northwestern Osceola County)
Jose Alvarez vs. Vanessa Alvarez vs. Jacqueline Centeno vs. R. LeWayne Johnson
After serving two terms, incumbent state Rep. Kristen Arrington is running for the Senate (see above), resulting in a crowded open seat. Jose Alvarez, the former Mayor of Kissimmee; phantom candidate Vanessa Alvarez; Jacqueline Centeno, a teacher and 2018 Orange County School Board candidate; and R. LeWayne Johnson, an attorney and head of the Florida Coalition to Prevent Veteran Homelessness, are all running. This race hasn’t really developed, and the stakes here aren’t very clear. Jose Alvarez seems to have won the support of many local elected Democrats and has lapped the rest of the field in fundraising, but hasn’t said much about the issues. Vanessa Alvarez lacks a website, and we couldn’t find out much about her.
HD-89 (east-central Palm Beach County: Greenacres/Lake Worth Beach)
Destinie Baker Sutton vs. Debra Tendrich
State Rep. David Silver is term-limited in this 59% Biden district, and it features another inscrutable Democratic primary. Personal injury attorney Destinie Baker Sutton and nonprofit executive Debra Tendrich are both running here, and the stakes are, yet again, unclear. Neither candidate has raised much money nor elaborated very much on their views, both have support from state and local electeds, and both have endorsements from local police unions. Baker Sutton has outraised Tendrich, but not so dramatically that she’s favored.
HD-98 (northeastern Broward County - Coconut Creek/Lauderdale Lakes)
Keith Abel vs. Shelton Pooler vs. Emily Rodrigues vs. Mitch Rosenwald
State Rep. Patricia Hawkins-Williams is term-limited, and there’s a crowded Democratic primary—and an open one, at that—to succeed her in this 70% Biden district. Veteran Keith Abel, small business owner Shelton Pooler, campaign consultant Emily Rodrigues, and Oakland Park Mayor Mitch Rosenwald are all competing here. Of the four candidates, Rodrigues and Rosenwald are probably the likeliest to win—they’ve raised the most money and seem to have the most significant institutional support. Rodrigues, who would be one of the youngest members of the state legislature, is endorsed by Ruth’s List (the Florida-level analog of EMILY’s List) and Run for Something, while Rosenwald has the support of the LGBTQ+ Victory Fund.
HD-99 (central Broward County - Plantation)
Daryl Campbell (i) vs. Joshauwa Brown
Daryl Campbell was first elected to the state House in a low-turnout special election in 2021, and seemed vaguely vulnerable to progressive challenger Elijah Manley in 2022—but ended up winning with 71% of the vote, which was a strong performance, but likely not one that would scare off potential challengers. He faces Joshauwa Brown, a nonprofit owner, but Brown hasn’t raised much or said how he’d be different from Campbell, so Campbell is a lock for renomination. This is technically an open primary, but in such a dark-blue seat, that’s really just a formality.
HD-107 (Miami Gardens/North Miami Beach)
Wallace Aristide vs. Loreal Arscott vs. Monique Barley-Mayo vs. Wancito Francius vs. Faudlin Pierre vs. Christine Olivo
Two-term state Rep. Christopher Benjamin opted to run for a county judgeship rather than seek re-election, and a crowded race with six candidates has emerged to succeed him. High school principal Wallace Aristide, magistrate judge Loreal Arscott, nonprofit executive Monique Barley-Mayo, security company executive Wancito Francius, attorney Faudlin Pierre, and 2022 congressional candidate Christine Sanon-Jules Olivo are all running here.
Of those candidates, you should hope that several of them don’t win—like Barley-Mayo, who announced that she “joined forces” with a local Trump backer, for example (whatever that means); Francius, who is anti-choice; and Aristide, who is “preferred” by Florida Family Action. Of the remaining candidates, the best is probably Faudlin Pierre, a civil rights attorney who frequently represents the ACLU. However, this is a difficult race to gauge. Though Pierre is the strongest fundraiser in the field—he’s raised about double what his next-closest competitor has—Aristide, Arscott, Francius, and Olivo have the resources to get their messages out. The difficulties in gauging this race are made more complicated by the fact that no Republican or independent candidate filed, so this is an open primary. While that normally wouldn’t be a factor in this district, which gave Joe Biden 78% of the vote, the sheer number of candidates in the race could actually give Republican primary voters some power.
HD-109 (North Miami/Opa-Locka)
Ashley Gantt (i) vs. James Bush III vs. Roy Hardemon
In 2022, defeating anti-choice state Rep. James Bush III was a big priority for progressives, and they narrowly succeeded in doing so—he lost the Democratic primary to Ashley Gantt, 52-48%. Since then, Gantt has been one of the most vocal members of the Democratic minority in the legislature, so naturally, she’s facing a challenge from the right. Gantt actually faces two challengers, both of whom are socially conservative former state representatives. Bush is back, and so is Roy Hardemon, who served a single term from 2016 to 2018 and was defeated in both his 2018 re-election campaign and a 2020 comeback attempt.
As we noted in our 2022 preview, both Bush and Hardemon are “awful.” Bush supported restrictions on abortion, DeSantis’s “don’t say gay” bill, and the ban on transgender athletes, and so is unsurprisingly “preferred” by Florida Family Action; Hardemon “was arrested for kidnapping and assault and was wishy-washy on abortion rights in the legislature.” Fortunately, neither campaign seems to be getting anywhere. Gantt has outraised Bush and Hardemon several times over. This race, too, is an open primary—and if Gantt faced a single challenger like Bush, that might matter a bit more. However, Gantt is a strong favorite for renomination here.
Broward County Sheriff
Gregory Tony (i) vs. Steven Andrew Geller vs. David Howard vs. Alvin Pollock
Florida’s bluest big county has a DeSantis-appointed sheriff, and he may well win another term. Gregory Tony was appointed after DeSantis suspended prior Sheriff Scott Israel, who was widely criticized for his handling of the Parkland shooting, upon taking office in 2019. Israel attempted a comeback campaign in 2020, and narrowly lost to Tony as other candidates split the vote. Tony’s 37% performance wasn’t anything to write home about, and he had already pissed off the deputies’ union by failing to provide PPE to deputies during the COVID pandemic, ultimately firing the union president for criticizing him and spurring the union to hold a vote of no confidence in Tony, a vote which Tony lost. However, Tony’s win, narrow as it was, seems impressive when you consider the fact that it came out during the campaign that Tony had killed a man as a juvenile in Philadelphia in 1993 and failed to disclose that to the DeSantis administration when they were vetting Israel replacements. (Tony claimed self-defense, which witnesses disputed.) Lying on official forms is a habit of Tony’s, so much so that Broward prosecutors added him to what some jurisdictions call a do-not-call list—a list of law enforcement officers with problems in their record which could damage the credibility of their testimony. Multiple ethics cases against Tony are pending.
Tony faces three challengers, all of whom are retired law enforcement personnel, and running on broad themes of competency and trust. Former detective and court services administrator Al Pollock is a returning candidate, trying again after placing a distant third in that 2020 primary with the support of the deputies’ union. Steve Geller (not to be confused with the Broward County Commissioner of the same name) is a former beat cop and internal affairs agent who carries the endorsement of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel. Former Pembroke Park police chief David Howard is also in the mix.
Unfortunately, Tony remains favored due to his massive (nearly $3 million) warchest, the unwillingness of Democrat-aligned groups like the AFL-CIO to break from him, and the fact he has three challengers to split the vote.
Palm Beach County (15th Judicial Circuit) State Attorney
Alexcia Cox vs. Gregg Lerman vs. Craig Williams
Three-term State Attorney Dave Aronberg has long been rumored as a candidate for higher office—but other than an unsuccessful run for Attorney General in 2010, he’s never gone for it. That’s probably for the best. Aronberg has only given vague feints in the direction of criminal justice reform, and has gone out of his way to cozy up to Republicans. When Pam Bondi was elected Attorney General in 2010, Aronberg immediately went to work for her as a “special prosecutor” for drug trafficking. He stayed neutral when she successfully ran for re-election in 2014. And though he ultimately withdrew from consideration, he entertained the idea of accepting an appointment from Donald Trump as U.S. Attorney for a little while. Aronberg isn’t seeking a fourth term, and there’s a three-way race to succeed him.
There are two long-time prosecutors from the State Attorney’s office in the race—Alexcia Cox and Craig Williams—and a defense attorney, Gregg Lerman. All three candidates have remained extremely vague about what their priorities are. Cox, who would be the first Black woman to serve as State Attorney in south Florida, seems to be the nominal frontrunner, and she’s lined up an odd coalition of endorsements: the local Black political establishment, the AFL-CIO, and the local police union. Concerningly, Cox was appointed by Aronberg to head up the office’s conviction integrity review unit—and despite reviewing 120 petitions, she pursued none of them. She said that “we were happy about the fact that we had not determined there was a case in our office that warranted exoneration,” which . . . is crazy, as the South Florida Sun-Sentinel concluded.
Williams and Lerman have attracted few endorsements themselves, but have been able to remain somewhat competitive with Cox in fundraising. Lerman, as a defense attorney, might be the safest bet, given that he seems to indicate a preference for criminal justice reform and preventing recidivism, but even he says, “All of the candidates for State Attorney say they are ‘Tough on Crime’, and if people deserve jail time, they will be prosecuted to the full extent of the law.” Even so, Lerman got the endorsement of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel, which praised him as “the most likely change agent” in the race.
Palm Beach County (15th Judicial Circuit) Public Defender
Daniel Eisinger vs. Adam Frankel
(Yes, this is really an elected position.) Carey Haughwout, Public Defender since 2001, isn’t seeking re-election. Here, the stakes are pretty clear. Daniel Eisinger, who’s worked in the Public Defender’s office for twenty years, has the endorsement of Haughwout and local Democrats. His opponent, Adam Frankel, is a former Delray Beach City Commissioner and criminal defense attorney who is endorsed by the police union. A candidate for public defender accepting a police union’s endorsement is a gigantic red flag. Eisinger should win here.
Palm Beach County Sheriff
Ric Bradshaw (i) vs. Alex Freeman
Ric Bradshaw has been Sheriff in Palm Beach County since he was first elected in 2004 and is one of the most powerful people in county politics. (He’s also one of Ron DeSantis’s favorite Florida Democrats.) This year, he faces a rematch from his opponent in the 2020 Democratic primary, currently the Deputy Police Chief in the tiny town of Jupiter Inlet Colony. When Alex Freeman ran against Bradshaw in 2020, he was dramatically outspent—Freeman raised just $34,000—but lost by a surprisingly close margin, 61-39%. This year, Freeman’s done a little bit better with fundraising, but not by much. Freeman is also campaigning on a reform platform, arguing that police alternatives need to be supported, excessive policing can result in more crime, a civilian review board needs to be created, and the culture of the sheriff’s office needs to encourage more proactive reporting of internal policy violations. To that end, Freeman has attracted some meaningful support from local progressive groups—like the DFA chapter in Palm Beach County—and civil rights attorney Benjamin Crump. Bradshaw is probably the favorite here, but Freeman has a solid performance to build on.
Alaska
HD-38 (Kuskokwim Delta - Alaskan Bush)
Conrad McCormick (i) vs. Nellie Jimmie vs. Victoria Sosa (vs. Willy Keppel [Veterans Party])
This, the only safe-district Democratic primary election outside of Florida, is somehow a beauty pageant primary, owing to Alaska’s new top-four ranked-choice voting system. This will tell us how at-risk Conrad McCormick is in November.
Wyoming
There are no Democratic legislative primaries in any district in Wyoming.