8/2 Primary Preview Part II
Arizona and Washington
Six states vote today; to help a little bit with readability we’re splitting the day into two previews. First are four Midwestern states: Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, and Ohio. You can read our preview of those states’ primaries here. This, our second preview, looks westward, covering Arizona and Washington state.
First, some housekeeping/formatting notes: Arizona and Washington are both among the handful of states that use the same district boundaries for both chambers of their state legislature, allocating two state reps and one state senator to each district. Our previews here are going to reflect that: rather than going through the upper chamber and then the lower chamber, as we usually do, we’re going to go district by district, highlighting Senate and House races as appropriate. Washington bifurcates its state House elections—candidates must choose to run for either Position 1 or Position 2 for a given district, but both Position 1 and Position 2 cover the entire district—and has top-two primaries, where the top two vote-getters advance to the general election regardless of party. Arizona just holds regular partisan primaries and has all state House candidates compete on one primary ballot, with the top two vote-getters winning the nomination.
Arizona
LD-05 (Central Phoenix)
Senate: Lela Alston (i) vs. Al Jones vs. Sarah Tyree
Lela Alston was first elected to the Arizona Senate in 1976 (though she took 1995-2011 off from the legislature) and is now in her 80s; on paper, she’s a prime candidate for retirement, voluntary or otherwise, even if she remains well-liked by her colleagues. She was only reelected in her last primary 64-36 against an unheralded challenger, and redistricting has significantly altered her district. While all those factors could add up to a difficult reelection, Alston is a workhorse senator and caucus member who hasn’t alienated any major group, which limits the opening anyone can get against her. Sarah Tyree, a social worker and criminal justice chair of the West Valley NAACP, is her main opponent, and is running to her left, but has chosen to make more of the emphasis of her campaign generational change and representation. While Tyree is a dedicated campaigner and has some support from party activists (she got 25% in last year’s state party chair vote), she’s struggling with very poor fundraising, and in a district with tens of thousands of voters in a primary, door knocking can only take you so far.
House: Amish Shah (i) vs. Sarah Liguori (i) vs. Jennifer Longdon (i) vs. vs. Aaron Márquez vs. Brianna Westbrook
In contrast to the straightforward Senate race in this district, the House election is the most chaotic contest in the state. Amish Shah and Jennifer Longdon are the incumbents from the old LD-24, which overlaps with the southern half of LD-05, while Sarah Liguori is an appointed incumbent from LD-28, which overlaps with the northern half of the new LD-05. Aaron Márquez is a school board member from the Phoenix Union district, a job he got in 2020 by getting more votes than his now co-incumbent Lela Alston. Finally, Brianna Westbrook is the only one of the five candidates who hasn’t held elected office before, but she’s best known for running for the AZ-08 special election in 2018. She lost the primary 60-40 despite being heavily outspent by the anointed candidate, and has stayed visible in Arizona politics since then.
With 5 strong candidates trying to pile into two spots, it’s anyone’s guess who makes it. Jennifer Longdon, a standard establishment liberal, is the most likely to make it—in addition to incumbency, she’s the choice of the full spectrum of organized labor, and has been very visible within the district for her advocacy work, especially on gun control. Her co-incumbent Shah has been a more moderate member of the House, and has shown a tendency towards fundamentalist Christianity. He was only Democrat to vote to declare pornography a public health crisis (oh by the way—he’s a medical doctor), and has voted repeatedly for religious exemptions from state law. He’s been passed over by institutional groups that support Democratic candidates and is attempting to make up for it with raw spending, of which he is far outpacing any other candidate. Instead of Shah, most establishment figures want Sarah Liguori, who is, like Longdon, an unremarkable but reliable liberal. Still, while technically an incumbent, she’s unusually weak. Aaron Márquez is backed by Ruben Gallego, his former boss, but Gallego hasn’t thus far been able to develop the kind of political machine in Phoenix you might expect. Looking at a field that otherwise ranges from “bleh” to “fine”, progressives have become very excited about Brianna Westbrook. Westbrook, who would be the first out trans member of the Arizona legislature, ran an unabashedly progressive campaign for Congress, and has a lot of allies left over from that experience, as well as the time she’s spent in politics since then. She’s Phoenix DSA’s only endorsement this cycle and has benefitted from ads paid for by Living United for Change in Arizona (LUCHA), part of The Center for Popular Democracy, but her supporters extend beyond the activist left. Several unions, including AFSCME and the Arizona Education Association, have broken from the Longdon/Ligouri consensus across most of labor to endorse Westbrook as well.
LD-11 (South Phoenix)
Senate: Junelle Cavero vs. Catherine Miranda vs. Janelle Wood
Catherine Miranda is notorious in Arizona Democratic politics. A onetime state senator, Miranda quickly made enemies by opposing abortion and gay rights, then endorsing Republican Doug Ducey for governor in 2014. After narrowly surviving a progressive challenge in 2016, she challenged Ruben Gallego in AZ-07 from the right, got flattened 75-25, and then unsuccessfully tried to regain a place in the legislature by running for the state house in her old district. This is her attempt to regain her old seat in the Senate, hoping that without having to face an incumbent she’ll be able to get back in. The safe, normal Democrat here is Junelle Cavero Harnal, who runs a digital ad firm and has worked for various politicians across the country in the last couple decades. Janelle Wood, who founded the Black Mothers Forum in 2016 to address police brutality and the school-to-prison pipeline, is also running, but with the looming possibility of a Miranda plurality victory, most progressives have just accepted Cavero.
House: Marcelino Quiñonez (i) vs. Shams Abdussamad vs. Michael Butts vs. Oscar De Los Santos vs. Wesley Leasey vs. Naketa Ross
Though Marcelino Quiñonez is technically an incumbent, he’s only an appointed one, making this functionally a fully open race, and there are two great candidates who could wind up knocking Quiñonez out of the top 2. Oscar De Los Santos is the candidate of progressives, labor, and LUCHA. De Los Santos, a former public school teacher and head of public policy at the Association of Arizona Food Banks, is now fully in the nonprofit world at the Arizona Democracy Resource Center and is a frontrunner in this race. Phoenix Union High School Governing Board member Naketa Ross has run a similarly strong campaign, and has a similar group of supporters. There’s a very real chance both De Los Santos and Ross win at the same time Miranda takes the Senate seat, at which point we will have absolutely zero idea what to make of it.
Also running: social worker Shams Abdussamad, the only candidate raising a comparable amount of money to the aforementioned pair of challengers, and who seems progressive-leaning but vague on policy; self-funding cop Michael Butts; and former NFL linebacker/current motivational speaker Wesley Leasey.
LD-12 (Southwest Phoenix suburbs)
House: Patricia Contreras vs. Sam Huang vs. Ajlan Kurdoglu vs. Anastasia Travers vs. Paul Weich
Putting aside Sam Huang, who ran for Congress as a Republican last cycle, there are 4 candidates running for 2 open spots, which is a relatively light load for Arizona House races. They all seem…fine? Pretty indistinguishable? Ajilan “AJ” Kurdoglu has raised the most money and has name recognition left over from a high profile state Senate general election that he narrowly lost last cycle.
LD-18 (Tucson and northern suburbs)
Senate: Morgan Abraham vs. Priya Sundareshan
State Rep. Morgan Abraham is going big—appointed to the state House of Representatives less than a year ago, he’s gambling on a Senate run instead of reelection. We’ll be very frustrated if he succeeds. Abraham, who was, until recently, a managing partner at his family’s real estate investment firm, is partially self-funding his campaign and is backed by the Arizona Chamber of Commerce, as well as the realtors, who have spent heavily for him. The conservative local Hernandez political dynasty is also backing him. You don’t get that many corporate ghouls in one place unless they’re all certain someone’s going to deliver for them. The progressive choice in this race is Priya Sundareshan, a professor of natural resources law, who is supported by organized labor (mostly—the building trades still like Abraham), as well as Raúl Grijalva. Grijalva has a strong record of getting his candidates elected in Tucson, which makes Sundareshan to a real threat to Abraham, even though he’s seriously outspending her.
House: Chris Mathis (i) vs. Nathan Davis vs. Nancy Gutierrez vs. Kat Stratford vs. Charles Verdin
Chris Mathis has less than a year of incumbency because he’s, you guessed it, yet another appointed pseudo-incumbent. Mathis, a healthcare lawyer, is running on being the only candidate with experience legislating, even if it’s just a few months. Planned Parenthood is fighting to elect Kat Stratford, a member of the Deaf and Hard-of-Hearing community who has been focusing on reproductive choice in her campaign. The AFL-CIO and Arizona Educators Association are behind teacher Nancy Gutierrez. Nathan Davis, the most policy-focused candidate of the bunch, has no big endorsements but is fundraising like a potential winner.
LD-21 (Tucson and rural border towns)
House: Consuelo Hernandez vs. Akanni Oyegbola vs. Stephanie Stahl Hamilton
State Sen. Stephanie Stahl Hamilton is seeking a demotion—though it’s more of a return to normal than a demotion, considering she was elected to the state House in 2020 and appointed to serve out state Sen. Kirsten Engel’s term when Engel resigned to commit more time to her congressional campaign in swingy AZ-06. (Another Democratic state senator, Rosanna Gabaldón, is running for LD-21’s Senate seat.) She’s probably going to advance to November, which is good, because she’s the most progressive candidate. Akanni Oyegbola, the acting mayor of the tiny enclave of South Tucson, and local school board member Consuelo Hernandez, the least-known of the extremely conservative and corporate-friendly Hernandez dynasty, are fighting for the other ticket to November.
LD-22 (Phoenix and western suburbs)
Senate: Richard Andrade vs. Diego Espinoza
State Reps. Richard Andrade and Diego Espinoza represented neighboring districts before redistricting, but they’ve been double-bunked just in time for both men to seek a promotion to the state Senate. Andrade is a reliable progressive, while Espinoza is the sort of business-friendly Democrat who’s standard in the Arizona legislature. The House primary here is very much an echo of this race; both Andrade and Espinoza effectively have a slate of like-minded running mates.
House: Lorenzo Sierra (i) vs. Natacha Chavez vs. Lupe Chavira Contreras vs. Leezah Sun
State Rep. Lorenzo Sierra and termed-out state Sen. Lupe Chavira Contreras are running on a slate with Espinoza; Natacha Chavez and Leezah Sun, the latter of whom challenged Espinoza and Sierra in 2020, are the progressive alternatives unofficially slated up with Andrade. Contreras is anti-abortion.
LD-24 (Phoenix and Glendale)
Senate: César Chávez vs. Anna Hernandez
While he shares a name with the legendary labor organizer, state Rep. César Chávez is a business-friendly moderate. A district this blue can do better, and Anna Hernandez is definitely better. Hernandez is a progressive activist and vocal critic of the Phoenix PD; her brother Alejandro was killed by a Phoenix cop in 2019 after the Hernandez family called for help with a drug-fueled mental health episode. Progressives like LUCHA and the Working Families Party are lined up behind Hernandez.
House: Anna Abeytia vs. Lydia Hernandez vs. Hector Jaramillo vs. Pedro Lopez vs. Analise Ortiz
Like Lupe Contreras, former state Rep. Lydia Hernandez signed on to the right-wing Center for Arizona Policy’s anti-abortion manifesto in 2013. Hard pass. The progressives here are former journalist Analise Ortiz and local school board member Anna Abeytia, running explicitly as a slate of like-minded progressives. They even have a catchy slate name: Las Anas, which also works with LD-24’s progressive Senate candidate Anna Hernandez. One of Abeytia’s school board colleagues, Pedro Lopez, rounds out the opposing de facto moderate slate (though the moderates here seem pretty disorganized overall); social worker Hector Jaramillo is somewhere between the two camps.
LD-26 (Central Phoenix)
House: Christian Solorio Acuña (i) vs. Cesar Aguilar vs. Flavio Bravo vs. Gil Hacohen
Christian Solorio Acuña was appointed in a game of legislative musical chairs, filling the state House seat left vacant when Raquel Terán was appointed to the state Senate last year. He’s running for a full term in his own right now, slating up with another progressive, Cesar Aguilar. Attorney Gil Hacohen and nonprofit staffer Flavio Bravo are more moderate, though at least labor seems fine with them—not always the case with Arizona moderates, even incumbents.
Washington
WA-09
Adam Smith (i) vs. Stephanie Gallardo (vs. various Republicans)
The question here is whether teachers’ union leader Stephanie Gallardo makes it to November. Gallardo has been plugging along for months, running a low-budget but spirited and avowedly socialist campaign against incumbent Adam Smith, who chairs the House Armed Services Committee and is fairly hawkish/pro-war. She’s attracted relatively little national attention, but some local elected officials have been impressed enough to endorse her over the incumbent, and her ties to the labor movement have gotten her some big labor endorsements, including the National Education Association (a dual endorsement with Smith) and the UAW (as far as we can tell, that one’s a sole endorsement.) A moderate white incumbent like Smith is just a weird fit for a district like this; the district, which takes in predominantly working-class, majority-minority neighborhoods in Seattle, Tacoma, and the cities and suburbs in between, is exactly the kind of place that deserves to have a socialist Latina labor union leader like Gallardo representing it. If Gallardo polls higher than any individual Republican, she gets to go head-to-head with Adam Smith in November. This district is quite blue, Gallardo is the only non-Smith Democrat on the ballot, and there are three Republicans and one independent; conditions are ripe for an all-Democratic November election. If that happens, this race—like the handful of Dem-on-Dem races in California—might look more attractive to restive national progressive groups without much to do after the primary season ends.
LD-22 (Olympia)
House, Position 1: Beth Doglio vs. Anthony Keen vs. Sarah León vs. María Siguenza
Beth Doglio held this district’s other state House seat from 2017 to 2021. She passed on reelection in 2020 in order to run for Congress; both in that campaign and in the legislature, she was very progressive with a special focus on climate change. It would be great to have her back. Her main opponent is María Siguenza, the director of the Washington Commission on Hispanic Affairs; Siguenza seems a little more establishment-oriented, but nothing about her biography or supporters is concerning, so if she manages to upset Doglio she’ll likely be just fine.
LD-24 (Olympic Peninsula)
House, Position 2: Steve Tharinger (i) vs. Darren Corcoran
Darren Corcoran’s whole message this campaign is that he’s a proud moderate unafraid to side with Republicans on things, so it’s time to be grateful for Steve Tharinger’s incumbency.
LD-29 (Tacoma and suburbs)
House, Position 1: Melanie Morgan (i) vs. Tim Monaghan
Melanie Morgan is a solidly progressive incumbent who’s likely to skate past Army veteran Tim Monaghan.
House, Position 2: Melissa Knott vs. Sharlett Mena
Sharlett Mena came heartbreakingly close to unseating maddeningly conservative Democratic state Rep. Steve Kirby in 2020. Mercifully, he’s calling it quits this cycle, and Melissa Knott isn’t running much of a campaign, so this time it’s Mena’s race to lose. With only one Republican running, a one-party general election is very unlikely.
LD-30 (Federal Way)
House, Position 2: Carey Anderson vs. Kristine Reeves
Kristine Reeves used to represent this district; she resigned to pursue a doomed congressional bid in 2020, running to the left of eventual winner Marilyn Strickland but well to the right of the progressive choice in that race, Beth Doglio. With two Republicans on the ballot, it’s not out of the question that the Rev. Carey Anderson, also a Democrat, will join Reeves in November. It’s just not at all clear he’s to her left; touting an endorsement from former Seattle Police Chief Carmen Best is a red flag if ever there was one.
LD-32 (Northern Seattle suburbs)
Senate: Jesse Salomon (i) vs. Patricia Weber
Then-Shoreline Councilmember Jesse Salomon unseated incumbent Democrat Maralyn Chase here in 2018. While he ran to her right, he was careful to frame the race in terms of generational change and new ideas, while letting outside PACs hammer her on the negatives. Chase was vulnerable for a lot of non-ideological reasons, and Salomon wound up beating her 69-31 in November's Top 2 runoff. Hei not been terrible in the legislature, but progressives think they can do better and probably can. Whether or not retired doctor Patricia Weber can actually unseat him is a different matter. She managed to win the 32nd Legislative District Democratic Organization, which is big for any challenger, but otherwise appears to be having a tough go of it convincing people Salomon has enough problems to warrant replacing him after one term. There are no Republicans running in this election, just a single independent who exists mostly on paper. If Weber has a chance of defeating Solomon she'll be doing it in November.
LD-34 (West Seattle, Vashon Island)
House, Position 1: Emily Alvarado vs. Leah Griffin
There’s a single Republican on the ballot, but since this district is mostly in Seattle proper, this is probably another beauty pageant primary. Emily Alvarado works at a nonprofit housing provider, and Leah Griffin is a school librarian; both have experience in government and legislative advocacy, both have broadly progressive platforms, both have serious support from progressive organizations and mainstream Democrats. It’s hard to get too worked up about this contest, because both candidates will be good legislators if they win. Alvarado, unsurprisingly given her professional background, is more focused on housing affordability, while Griffin is particularly focused on healthcare.
LD-36 (Northwest Seattle)
Senate: Noel Frame vs. Kate Martin
State Rep. Noel Frame faces minimal opposition on her way to the Senate in this deep blue district—Kate Martin, a right-winger who describes herself as a "bipartisan wing Democrat," has run for Seattle City Council 3 times, each time faring quite poorly at the polls. This is a beauty pageant primary—Frame and Martin are the only two candidates running and will face off again in November.
House, Position 1: Elizabeth Tyler Crone vs. Nicole Gomez vs. Jeff Manson vs. Julia Reed vs. Waylon Robert
No Republican even bothered filing here. Two of five Democrats will make it to November. Elizabeth Tyler Crone is a veteran of HIV prevention nonprofits; Nicole Gomez is a healthcare advocate who sits on the state’s Universal Healthcare Commission; Jeff Manson is an administrative law judge who led the successful effort to unionize administrative law judges in Washington state; Julia Reed is a former Obama administration staffer; and Waylon Robert is utterly inscrutable. Of the five, Gomez and Reed seem the most progressive, and they also seem like two of the likeliest to advance—we think Manson rounds out the top tier here, while Crone and Robert are longer shots.
LD-37 (Southeast Seattle)
House, Position 2: Andrew Ashiofu vs. Nimco Bulale vs. Emijah Smith vs. Chipalo Street
Progressive state Rep. Kirsten Harris-Talley is, unfortunately, retiring after a single term, out of frustration with being sidelined and undermined by Democratic leadership. All four of the candidates to replace her are decent, at least. Andrew Ashiofu is a HIV-positive, formerly homeless flight attendant and Nigerian immigrant, and his campaign might be the most overtly progressive of the four (not an easy feat, because all four are unambiguously progressive.) Nimco Bulale is a Somali refugee working as an adjunct professor of education; Emijah Smith is a community activist with the Black-led, Black-centered group King County Equity Now; Chipalo Street is a landlord for rent control and tenant protections, an irony which amused The Stranger so much they endorsed him. Like we said, all four candidates are clearly running as progressives; any of them would be a good addition to the legislature, and it’s a shame we only get one of this bunch while useless legislators elsewhere in the state get to waltz to another term. If we had to guess, Street will make it to November, but we have no idea who’ll join him.
LD-38 (Everett, Marysvillle, and Tulalip Reservation)
House, Position 1: Julio Cortes vs. Daryl Williams
Everett City employee Julio Cortes and Daryl Williams, a Tulalip Tribe member and Chair of the Washington State Conservation Commission, are both running strong campaigns and there’s a good chance the election breaks down more geographically than ideologically. Cortes has talked more about specific policy and action he wants to take in the legislature, and we prefer him for that reason. A good example of what we mean is the League of Women Voters forum where they both said homelessness was a top priority. When asked what they would do about it in the legislature, Cortes launched into a response about the housing first model, while Williams’s answer amounted to “talk to people and see what they think”.
LD-40 (Bellingham, Samish Bay, and San Juan County)
House, Position 1: Alex Ramel (i) vs. Trevor Smith
This is another beauty pageant primary. Alex Ramel, running for his second reelection, is being opposed by building trades union rep Trevor Smith. Smith is running a quiet campaign that’s been juiced by $100,000 in outside spending from a business group-affiliated PAC. Expect more where that came from if Smith finishes reasonably well tonight.
LD-46 (Northeast Seattle)
Senate: Matthew Gross vs. Javier Valdez
This is functionally another beauty pageant primary—the only other candidate is Alex Tsimerman, who runs for something every year and manages to clear 1% of the vote when things go well for him—and as such probably deserves more analysis in November than now. The candidates we’ll be seeing then are Matthew Gross, a prosecutor who is running on a platform of housing and only housing, and state Rep. Javier Valdez, the guy who's going to win.
House, Position 1: Gerry Pollet (i) vs. Hadeel Jeanne
This beauty pageant primary is a contest between incumbent Gerry Pollet, who is not moderate by the standards of Washington state politics but is more affiliated with the moderate faction of Seattle politics than the progressive one, and urbanist activist Hadeel Jeanne, who faults Pollet for not supporting rent control or upzoning.
House, Position 2: Nancy Connolly vs. Darya Farivar vs. Nina Martinez vs. Lelach Rave vs. Melissa Taylor
Two of these five Democrats will face off in November, but it’s anyone’s guess which two. Pediatrician Lelach Rave has support from Seattle’s moderate faction, which includes the Seattle Times and outgoing Sen. David Frockt. The moderates have scored victories recently in this part of Seattle, and she may very well be the latest tally in their win column. She also loves landlords, because of course she does. Progressives haven’t consolidated as much around a single candidate, but Darya Farivar, Disability Rights Washington’s director of public policy, has the Stranger endorsement, which is good for moving a lot of late-deciding left-leaning voters. Farivar’s support of a wide range of specific progressive policies like upzoning and wealth taxes is reassuring, as is her supporter list, which includes the Transit Riders Union, Housing Alliance Fund, and AFT. King County Democrats Treasurer Melissa Taylor is also running a policy-heavy urbanist campaign and has support from elements of both the moderate and progressive factions of Seattle politics, as well as a few unions. Nina Martinez and Dr. Nancy Connolly both seem fine, but are getting lost in the scuffle of a crowded field, although AFSCME did endorse Connolly, who has a special focus on homlessness (albeit a graphic design sense that unintentionally implies the opposite.)
LD-47 (Southeastern Seattle suburbs)
Senate: Claudia Kauffman vs. Satwinder Kaur
Finally—a Washington race that’s going to be decided tonight. With one Republican in a roughly 60D-40R district, either Claudia Kauffman, Intergovernmental Affairs Liaison for the Muckleshoot Indian Tribe, or Kent City Councilmember Satwinder Kaur, is going to November, but not both. Kaur has establishment support in the area, including the 47th District Legislative Democratic Organization, as well as labor, but Kauffman, who was in the state legislature for two terms in the 2000s, is clearly the more progressive of the two. Unlike Kaur, Kauffman told alt-weekly The Stranger she supports banning new highway construction and supports rent control.
House, Position 2: Shukri Olow vs. Chris Stearns
Nonprofit leader Dr. Shukri Olow challenged a county commissioner from the left in 2021, and now she’s facing off with another local politician, this time for a state job. Auburn City Councilor Chris Stearns, unlike King County Commissioner Dave Upthegrove, isn’t an irritating moderate, as far as we can tell; Olow is more progressive, but Stearns, the first Native person elected to the Auburn City Council, has a fine record of public service and experience handling environmental policy. Whoever advances to November is in for a bruising general election against a well-funded Republican, but Joe Biden won this district by nearly twenty points; just because Republicans have convinced themselves they have a chance here doesn’t mean they actually do.