8/13 Primary Preview
Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, and Wisconsin
Connecticut
SD-02 (Hartford and suburbs)
Douglas McCrory (i) vs. Shellye Davis vs. Ayana Taylor
Douglas McCrory pissed off a lot of Democrats last year when he decided to become the #1 advocate for the charter school industry in the legislature, but progressives may fumble the opportunity to remove him by splitting their efforts between two candidates. At the party convention for SD-02, the delegates from Hartford voted for McCrory, the delegates from Windsor backed Windsor Board of Education member Ayana Taylor, and Bloomfield’s supported teachers union member/AFL-CIO leader Shellye Davis. McCrory won that endorsement because Davis’s delegates supported McCrory in the second round, which Taylor’s campaign is using as evidence for their claim that Davis is in the race for the purpose of splitting the anti-McCrory vote, at the behest of the incumbent.
It's a dubious claim, given that Davis was in the race since January, and teachers unions clearly despise the man. On one hand, it does sound a bit like Taylor, the niece of McCrory’s predecessor, believes she has the right to take on McCrory by herself, and didn't win over labor before making her run. But on the other, Taylor has claimed that she talked with Davis specifically about running and Davis wasn't interested until after Taylor was already in the race. Regardless of who’s telling the truth about the circumstances that led to this split field, we hope it doesn’t allow McCrory to survive with a plurality.
SD-22 (Bridgeport and suburbs)
Scott Burns vs. Bill Finch vs. Sujata Gadkar-Wilcox vs. Tyler Mack
Connecticut has absurdly high standards for ballot access, and this is the only Democratic primary in the state with four candidates. It was in fact originally going to have five after a bizarre convention vote where every candidate received at least 15% of delegates, and even though one candidate dropped out, that convention was a demonstration of how this race is anyone's game. The competitiveness of this contest is surprising given the presence of former state senator and Bridgeport mayor Bill Finch, even if he was last in office nine years ago. Finch has remained active in politics since his 2015 defeat (to Joe Ganim) and now has the support of the building trades but not organized labor as a whole, and most of the Bridgeport political class is keeping him at arm’s length, even if he is the only candidate with much name rec in the city.
The Bridgeport political class is instead supporting Tyler Mack, a member of the Bridgeport Council until earlier this year when he resigned because his family moved out of the district. He not only has the support of most councilors, but also outgoing senator Marilyn Moore. Moore, who has been on the more progressive end of CT politics, was joined by the Working Families Party in supporting Mack, which makes him definitively the progressive choice here. Bridgeport Councilmember Scott Burns is also running a progressive-flavored campaign, but at the moment appears to have little chance of winning. The only non-Bridgeport candidate (despite Finch technically living outside of the city now) is lawyer Sujata Gadkar-Wilcox, best known for her three runs for state house district 123, entirely within the town of Trumbull, which is in turn entirely in SD-22. She’s seen as the favorite to win the suburbs, which puts her in very good position. The wealthier, whiter suburbs may not be a majority of the district, but have good enough turnout (compared to Bridgeport’s low standards) that they should comprise about half the primary electorate. And with the Bridgeport vote as split as it is, that may be enough. We wouldn’t mind seeing her win, as she wants to take aggressive measures to make the state’s tax code more progressive, including eliminating the carried interest loophole, implementing a statewide property tax, and taxing income over $5 million at 9.99%.
SD-23 (Bridgeport)
Herron Gaston (i) vs. Ernest Newton
Local pastor Herron Gaston unseated conservative Democratic incumbent Dennis Bradley last cycle. He’s acquitted himself well in his single term in office, and has a reputation as an up-and-comer in state politics. Not acquitting himself well, or at least not getting acquitted, is former state Sen. Ernest Newton, whose 18-year tenure in office ended in 2006 after a corruption conviction for taking bribes. He ran for his old seat in 2012, and celebrated his return to politics by committing campaign finance fraud, for which he was convicted again. We wish we could say this was his next attempt to return to elected office, but it’s not. He’s already on the Bridgeport City Council, because voters in that city simply love corruption, as Gaston can attest to—he used to work for Joe Ganim. Both Newton and Gaston are happy to turn this into a generational contest, but in our view, the repeated public corruption is a much better reason to keep Newton out of the legislature than his age.
HD-15 (Hartford suburbs - Bloomfield)
Bobby Gibson (i) vs. Jennifer Marshall-Nealy
The Bloomingfield Democratic Committee unexpectedly threw its weight behind Justice of the Peace Jennifer Marshall-Nealy, giving the party endorsement over incumbent Bobby Gibson, who refused to attend the convention, apparently in protest of how the committee was elected. The candidates clearly embody some sort of factional difference in Bloomfield, but the candidates themselves are both running on standard, broadly acceptable Democratic values.
HD-26 (New Britain)
Aram Ayalon vs. David DeFronzo
Aram Ayalon was a progressive, anti-establishment (not necessarily in that order) voice on the New Britain Council for several terms, eventually rising to the level of Minority Leader. The Bernie-supporting, education-funding focused columnist at The New Britain Progressive is unfortunately, albeit unsurprisingly, not the party-endorsed candidate in this race. That would be Councilmember David DeFronzo, best known for being the son of former New Britain Mayor and state Sen. Donald DeFronzo. Outgoing state Rep. Peter A. Tercyak is also supporting the younger DeFronzo, who represents a more moderate path than Ayalon.
HD-58 (Enfield)
David Alexander vs. John Santanella
David Alexander previously served in the state House from this district only a few years ago, so let’s look at his biggest accomplishments during that time.
2015: DUI
2016: Another DUI
2017: Drunkenly assaulting his father
2018: Drunkenly assaulting his mother
Cool.
Town Councilor John Santanella seems like an aggressively normal Democrat and has been endorsed by the entire party apparatus in Enfield.
HD-88 (Hamden)
Joshua Elliott (i) vs. Dan Garrett
Joshua Elliott has been a decent progressive legislator for several terms, and, despite co-owning a small business, voted for state’s the $15 minimum wage. He’s being challenged by landlord Dan Garrett, who despite his profession, is pitching himself as a progressive protest vote. Garrett was, until last year, married to progressive mayor Lauren Garrett, and he did a respectable job running for town council, even if he lost. However, this year he doesn't appear to have an actual campaign, and his social media is comprised of posts about Gaza, not his upcoming election.
HD-91 (Hamden)
Jennifer Pope vs. Laurie Sweet
Truth be told, there's no bad choice in this election, but Laurie Sweet would clearly be better. Hampden is a rare Connecticut town where progressives took over the party infrastructure, and Sweet was one of their first victories. In her two terms on the town council, Sweet was responsible for some of the state’s strongest pro-renter legislation, and is in this election running as a candidate allied with the Working Families Party and the now-progressive Hampden Democratic Committee. She also has an endorsement from the state’s DSA chapter that she doesn't really publicize but clearly has to at least ask for.
HD-94 (New Haven and Hamden)
Tarolyn Moore vs. Abdul Osmanu vs. Steven Winter
Incumbent Robyn Porter is retiring as a result of disputes with house leadership, leaving the house district with Yale University open. Progressives understandably sense an opportunity here, and are excited about the campaign of Hamden Council member Abdul Osmanu, who Porter endorsed not longer after he announced his campaign. The party choice is Steven Winter, the city’s Executive Director of Climate and Sustainability. Winter is also running as a progressive but this is a situation where we’re choosing to trust progressive groups in the area like DSA and WFP, who have both endorsed Osmanu. School administrator and pastor Tarolyn Moore is also running but hasn't received the traction of either Osmanu or Winter.
HD-110 (Danbury)
Bob Godfrey (i) vs. Melissa Santana
Bob Godfrey has been kicking around the state house since the 80s, and owes his longevity to the machine politics of Danbury rather than an exemplary voting record. Unfortunately, the vote of his that earned him his first primary in decades was the correct vote: opposing new charter schools. Investment banking sales director Melissa Santana is a pro-charter school activist hoping to unseat Godfrey and clear the path to opening new charter schools in Danbury. In a state legislature as large as Connecticut’s, it can feel like an individual legislator makes little difference, but deference to local electeds is still powerful in the body, and charter school interests could very well get their way in Danbury by winning this one race.
HD-124 (Bridgeport)
Andre Baker (i) vs. Eneida Martinez
The political allies of hilariously corrupt Mayor Joe Ganim, having just secured his reelection and fully taken over the Bridgeport party infrastructure, are trying to knock off backbench state Rep. Andre Baker and replace him with city councilmenber Eneida Martinez. Though we have little positive or negative to say about Baker, he’s got to be better than a woman currently under investigation by the state for illegally harvesting ballots for the Joe Ganim absentee operations that was so fraud-filled it caused an entire election to be invalidated.
HD-140 (Norwalk)
Travis Simms (i) vs. Carleton Giles
Earlier this year, Governor Ned Lamont bowed to Republican pressure and removed the chair of the Board of Pardons and Paroles, Carleton Giles, who was under fire for taking the board in a direction where commutations were more likely to be approved. The board approved a total of 71 commutations, in a year, across the whole state, which was enough to cause backlash. Giles was (narrowly) allowed to remain on the board, but his power is greatly diminished. He’s now running for state house against three-term incumbent and former boxer Travis Simms, and could very well win. Simms, though uncontroversial, doesn’t have many accomplishments in the legislature, and won’t have many of the incumbency advantages common to Connecticut—the Norwalk Democratic Town Committee had to issue no endorsement in this race after what sure seems like fraud in the voting process (Giles won 63-61, which is more votes than there are voting members of the committee) and the AFL-CIO is also sitting this one out, by choice. Given Giles’s recent history on the Board of Pardons and Paroles, we’d like to think he’s the most progressive choice here, but Simms, despite breaking from the party on red flag gun control laws, has the WFP endorsement.
HD-146 (Stamford)
David Michel (i) vs. Eilish Collins Main
The Stamford Democratic Party has endorsed against two incumbents this year. One, Anabel Figueroa (see HD-148 below) is for very clear reasons, while the other, David Michel, fell out of the good graces of the party for reasons that have more to do with the party itself. Michel, a former Green who joined the Democrats and defeated the incumbent in this district in 2018, has consistently been one of the most progressive members of the state house, and is now Assistant House Majority Leader. We have to assume one of his more progressive causes—rent control, ranked choice voting, rideshare unionization, renter right to counsel—has rankled the feathers of the old guard enough for them to support an opponent. We’re confident it’s because he’s too progressive partly because his party-endorsed opponent, professional campaign manager Eilish Collins Main, has said as much, attacking Michael for spending too much time on issues that “are not relevant”, and saying ““I’ve seen a lot of legislative reports about bears and whales and windmills.” Tellingly, this challenge, and the party endorsement, are happening right after the centrist slate won a majority in the most recent party committee elections.
HD-148 (Stamford)
Anabel Figueroa (i) vs. Jonathan Jacobson
Is Anabel Figueroa trying to lose? That's normally what the take away when a Democrat headlines a large anti-abortion rally, and Figueroa spoke to a crowd of 1,500 at the CT Match for Life (the state’s largest gathering of people who should have been aborted)as part of a forum dedicated to advancing the idea that abortion clinics are trying to reduce non-white populations, where she blamed “education” for Latinas getting abortions. This came after she voted against a bipartisan, Democrat-led bill to increase reproductive health options to college students. The Stamford Democratic Party has picked a pro-choice candidate to run against her, Stamford Board of Representatives member Jonathan Jacobson. We don't really trust their judgment here, as they’re the ones who selected Figueroa for the legislature in the first place last year. Jacobson is, however, all we have as an alternative to Figueroa this year.
Minnesota
MN-05
Ilhan Omar (i) vs. Abena McKenzie vs. Don Samuels vs. Nate Schluter
Ilhan Omar had an unexpectedly close call in 2022, but few expect her to have as much trouble this year in her rematch with former Minneapolis City Councilor Don Samuels. Even the congresswoman herself has acknowledged that 2022 was an anomaly (and, implicitly, a case of her camp taking the primary for granted), telling Axios “we are campaigning the way we normally campaign, and not the way we campaigned in 2022.” (Emphasis ours.) And it’s true—Omar’s campaign this time around is very different from her 2022 effort. While Omar had a financial advantage in 2022, she’s greatly increased it this year, and she’s spent more than $5 million on this primary, blanketing the district with ads and receiving substantial help in the form of mailers and canvassing from the Minnesota DFL and some progressive groups. Samuels, meanwhile, has floundered, though there has been a last-minute uptick in donor interest after the defeat of Cori Bush last week. While the national mood seems to have shifted against the Squad, Samuels hasn’t been able to attract the support of AIPAC’s super PAC or any of the other usual sources of heavy outside spending; all he’s got is a combined $109,000 in digital ads, texting, and mailers from Make A Difference MN, a newly-formed super PAC that has not yet disclosed its donors. The most recent poll, an internal from Omar’s camp conducted in mid-July, has the congresswoman up 60%-33% on Samuels.
HD-8A (Duluth)
Jordon Johnson vs. Pete Johnson
Retiring state Rep. Liz Olson is going to be replaced by a Democrat named Johnson. The two candidates for the DFL nomination in her blue Duluth seat are Jordon Johnson, a nonprofit social services manager and trans man with a handful of community supporters in his corner, and Pete Johnson, a Duluth fire captain running with the DFL endorsement and the support of organized labor. Pete has way more money than Jordon, and the backing of the DFL and labor would make Pete the favorite even if Jordon was at financial parity, which he isn’t.
HD-36B (Northeastern MSP suburbs)
Brion Curran (i) vs. T.J. Malaskee
State Rep. Brion Curran’s path to reelection was complicated by her former employer last fall. A former sheriff’s deputy, it was none other than Curran’s former employers at the Chisago County Sheriff’s Office who pulled them over on October 9, finding their blood alcohol content was double the legal limit. Curran expressed contrition and pleaded guilty, but the damage was done. Curran was able to keep most of organized labor and state House leadership on her side, but couldn’t secure the DFL endorsement against Maplewood Area Historical Society executive director T.J. Malaskee. Curran has outraised and outspent Malaskee, but Malaskee has the backing of some local politicians and isn’t flat broke, and the fact that Curran couldn’t win the DFL endorsement suggests some degree of organization by her opponents.
HD-38A (Northwestern MSP suburbs - Brooklyn Park)
Huldah Hiltsley vs. Wynfred Russell
Democratic primaries are rarer in Minnesota owing to their convention system. Like a few states, the parties issues official endorsements, but instead of winning over a small number of party insiders like, for instance, Connecticut requires, Minnesota’s convention system involves an arduous multi-stage organizing battle involving hundreds of voters volunteering their time to support candidates in a day-long physical convention. As a result, the convention winner is, almost by default, the better organized campaign, especially since they need to win 60% of the vote to secure the endorsement. Add to that the tangible party resources that come with an endorsement, and most losing candidates just don’t see a path to victory past the convention, and drop out. So when a candidate begins their campaign by saying they plan to keep running even if they lose at the convention, they know they’re probably not going to win.
That’s exactly what former Brooklyn Park Councilmember Wynfred Russell said at his kickoff event, months ahead of the convention. The convention ended with no endorsement, meaning Russell had put an the air of doom over his candidacy for no real reason. We understand why he sees himself as the underdog after running for mayor and losing 60% to 40%, but it seems like he’s on the outs with the political establishment for deeper reasons than that. We just wish we could figure out what they are. His opponent, Huldah Hiltsley, has all of the major endorsements in this race, from labor to party caucuses (progressive caucus included), and previously ran for state senate, losing by a 62%-38% margin. We noticed her as having more progressive endorsements but not an overtly more progressive campaign than her opponent then, and it appears that’s the case now too.
HD-49A (Western MSP suburbs)
Kissy Coakley vs. Alex Falconer
The DFL endorsement in HD-49A went to conservationist Alex Falconer, who seems like a cool guy. He’s running as an environmentally-focused progressive, has a long history in DFL politics, and has collected major endorsements, ranging from Senator Tina Smith to outgoing HD-49A state Rep. Laurie Pryor. Despite Falconer looking like a major favorite, and, as alluded to in the HD-38A item above, the convention being that candidates drop out after losing in the convention, Minnetonka City Councilmember Kissy Coakley has decided to take it to the voters. We admire her focus on criminal justice reform, but her vague statements about policy and what she wants to do in office don’t offer progressives anything that Falconer doesn’t.
(Note: in the email edition of this issue we inexplicably referred to the junior senator from Minnesota as Tina Fey, not Tina Smith. In our defense, Smith’s predecessor in the Senate was an SNL star.)
HD-61A (Downtown and west-central Minneapolis)
Katie Jones vs. Isabel Rolfes vs. Will Stancil
Hahaha, oh god. If you, like us, are too online and already know who Will Stancil is, you can skip the next paragraph.
Will Stancil tweets. A lot. Both of the authors of this newsletter tweet too much, and we’re here to tell you he tweets way too much. Like anyone who tweets incessantly about politics and has a largish following, he’s developed something of a personal political philosophy: less an ideology, more of an electoral theory, where every Republican victory exists as a confluence of the media failing Democrats, and Democrats failing themselves. Seemingly all of the news media is incentivized against Democrats; and feckless Democrats, unwilling to stand up for themselves, give in to the pressure of whatever the false concern of the day is, resulting in a media narrative, the most powerful force in the political universe. Media narratives don’t just shape reality, they are reality, and the intelligent few who can see above the narratives can save the Democrats by teaching them to confront media incentives. This is, in some sense, true on a macroscopic level, but Stancil is the kind of poster incapable of making too many good posts in a row without also making a terrible point and digging in. For instance, his last few hundred tweets before taking his first Twitter break in years to door knock were screaming that Biden didn’t need to step down, no other candidate would do better than him, and that the focus on his age after the debate was “a product of media incentives, not objective reality.” (He’s since made peace with Kamala becoming the nominee.)
Stancil declared for this seat not long after incumbent Frank Hornstein announced his retirement, becoming part of a three person field, along with engineer Katie Jones and legislative assistant Isabel Rolfes. All three are young, policy-focused candidates running in an upscale, largely progressive district in Minneapolis, and, even though Stancil is often annoying, it’s helpful to remember that most people are annoying sometimes, they just don’t usually broadcast it to Twitter. The DFL convention deadlocked, with Stancil and Jones getting 36% of the delegates each and Rolfes taking 26%. Stancil was ahead by 1 delegate, but the only winner in that circumstance is “no endorsement”. Stancil has raised over $100,000 thanks to his online fanbase, and looked like a mild favorite because of it, which we… didn’t mind at the time.
The race has taken a sharp, and clarifying, turn to the factional in the final weeks. Kaite Jones secured the endorsements of progressive Minneaspolis City Council members Katie Cashman and Aisha Chughtai. Then, an outside group, donors hidden until after the election, sent out flyers highlighting questionable tweets from Stancil, where he emphasized how few people were affected by overturning Roe v. Wade, and told someone he was arguing with to drink bleach. Stancil denounced the flyers, as did All of Mpls, the main group organizing the business/centrist faction of Minneapolis politics, and vehement opponents of the left. Stancil tried to distance himself from All of Mpls’s endorsement without denouncing them, saying he didn’t want to get involved with “the Minneapolis factional stuff”. Twitter user @jukebox85303523 has pointed out that Stancil recently ran a newspaper ad listing his endorsements, which includes a name he doesn’t have on his website endorsement list: Karin Birkeland, the chair of All of Mpls.
That clears things up—if Stancil is the All of Mpls candidate, him losing is the best outcome. Since the convention, Jones has been gaining steam as the anti-Stancil candidate, both from fundraising better than Rolfes is, but also by gathering important endorsements, most notably Rep. Hornstein himself, though Attorney General Keith Ellison isn’t unimportant either.
Vermont
First, a housekeeping note: we are not doing the Vermont House this year. The districts are so tiny, there are so many of them, and there are only two of us. Sorry. We are still doing the state Senate, though, so Vermont state legislative nerds still have something to read in this preview.
Lieutenant Governor
David Zuckerman (i) vs. Thomas Renner
Lt. Gov. David Zuckerman has always been firmly on the left of Vermont’s political spectrum. Since his 2016 election as lieutenant governor, he’s been running on the Democratic ballot line, but he’s primarily a member of the Progressive Party dating back to his days as a state legislator. His past skepticism of vaccines, while very Vermont, haunted him in 2020 when he ran for governor; he was able to win the Democratic nomination over first-time candidate Rebecca Holcombe, but lost in a landslide to popular Republican Gov. Phil Scott and found himself out of a job. Luckily for Zuckerman, his successor as lieutenant governor, moderate Democrat Molly Gray, ran for Congress in 2022 after just one two-year term, allowing Zuckerman to run for his old job and win a narrow 44%-39% Democratic primary victory against state Rep. Kitty Toll. Zuckerman should be favored to hang on to his job in the face of a challenge from Winooski City Councilor Thomas Renner, but Renner does have the support of Toll and other past Zuckerman opponents like state Sen. Kesha Ram Hinsdale, as well as the Democratic members of the Burlington City Council, which is heavily polarized between Democrats on the right and Progressives on the left. Renner, a 34-year-old gay Black man, wants to bring greater diversity to Vermont’s government and doesn’t have much in the way of a policy platform beyond progressive generalities—which makes sense for the mostly powerless office of lieutenant governor but also leaves us with nothing interesting to say.
Senate - Addison County [Two win]
Christopher Bray (i) vs. Ruth Hardy (i) vs. Caleb Elder
We’re not sure what exactly possessed Caleb Elder to give up his state House seat for a bid to enter the Senate, but we do know that he can’t be allowed to succeed. Elder voted against H 829, which could be one of the biggest Democratic policy wins in Vermont in the last few years—a 3% tax on income over $500,000, with the money going to fund housing projects and rental assistance. He’s one of 5 Democrats in the state of Bernie Sanders who voted against taxing the 1%. Incumbents Christopher Bray and Ruth Hardy have been around for a while and, while neither are standouts, are reliable, progressive legislators with good voting records.
Senate - Caledonia County
Amanda Cochrane vs. Shawn Hallisey
This Clinton+6, Biden+15 district might honestly be competitive by Vermont standards, and Republicans are actually fielding a candidate here, but the differences between the candidates here bear watching. Nursing home administrator Shawn Hallisey, who describes himself as a “Blue Dog” and rails against raising taxes, is clearly a disaster, while nonprofit worker Amanda Cochrane, endorsed by popular outgoing state Sen. Jane Kitchel, seems fine.
Senate - Chittenden County Central [Three win]
Philip Baruth (i) vs. Martine Gulick (i) vs. Tanya Vyhovsky (i) vs. Stewart Ledbetter
Burlington’s political culture is split between the left-wing Progressives (originally formed to support then-mayor Bernie Sanders) and the business-friendly Democrats, who, owing to the defection of their left wing and de facto absorption of the Republicans in the city, have become pretty conservative, in Vermont terms. This primary is a Progressive vs. Democratic battle—local news anchor Stewart Ledbetter is running with the hope of unseating one candidate in particular, Progressive-first, Democrat-second Tanya Vyhovsky, a democratic socialist who was elected in 2022. Though, if he misses and knocks out Democrat-first, Progressive-second Philip Baruth, or even generally pretty good Democrat Martine Gulick, we doubt him, or his donors, would be too upset. A flood of business cash has entered his campaign pockets, including thousands from Republican politicians, who know what they’re buying. Ledbetter has lapped the field in fundraising multiple times over, and has raised more money than any other legislative candidate in the state. Just as relevant, the Democratic faction of Burlington politics, including former mayor Miro Weinberger, has been pulling hard for him.
Senate - Chittenden County South [Three win]
Thomas Chittenden (i) vs. Virginia Lyons (i) vs. Kesha Ram Hinsdale (i) vs. Louis Meyers
Physician Louis Meyers runs for this seat every two years and takes in 2-3% of the vote, except for 2022, when he ran for Congress and didn’t even do that well. Meyers, like Ledbetter, also represents a challenge from the center, but unlike Ledbetter, we don’t have to take him seriously.
Senate - Grand Isle County
Andrew Julow (i) vs. Julie Hulburd
Human resources professional Julie Hulburd may be running as a Democrat, but she has an entire page on her website to let you know she doesn’t really want to be one. She’s only in the party because of the social issues, but is otherwise “moderate and fiscally conservative”. How she became the chair of the Colchester Democrats when her hope was to work more closely with Republicans than to actually win as Democrats we’ll never know. That’s a bad enough pitch that we’re inclined to side with incumbent Andrew Julow, and he’s only an incumbent because he was appointed by Republican governor Phil Scott. Yes, in fairness, he was selected from a list submitted by local Democrats, but it’s still an inauspicious start, and we’d have some healthy suspicion for him to overcome if his opponent weren’t a proud fiscal conservative.
Senate - Windsor County [Three win]
Alison Clarkson (i) vs. Rebecca White (i) vs. Joe Major vs. Marc Nemeth vs. Justin Tuthill
There’s a primary happening here. Technically. Incumbent Dick McCormick is retiring, leaving two incumbents for a three spot primary, which normally brings in a field of candidates competing for that final spot. That sort of happened here, but one of them, Justin Tuthill, is a former Republican Congressional candidate who is going nowhere in this primary, and a second, attorney Marc Nemeth, made the decision to unofficially withdraw for health reasons. That leaves only Hartford Town Treasurer Joe Major left to scoop up that final spot.
Wisconsin
SD-04 (Milwaukee)
Dora Drake (i) vs. LaKeshia Myers
Then-Assemb. Dora Drake already beat her Assembly colleague LaKeshia Myers in a July 2 primary to fill the vacancy left by the appointment of state Sen. Lena Taylor to a local judgeship. After winning a July 30 special general election unopposed, Drake is now the incumbent, and she has maintained the financial advantage that helped carry her to a 2-to-1 victory in the special primary.
SD-14 (Madison suburbs and rurals)
Jimmy Anderson vs. Samba Baldeh vs. Melissa Ratcliff
When the court added a new Democratic senate district to the Madison area, three members of the state Assembly flocked into the primary: Jimmy Anderson, Samba Baldeh, and Melissa Ratcliff. The three can’t seem to disagree on anything, and, while none are fire-breathing progressives, all have spotless voting records in the legislature and are on the same page about what to pass if Democrats have the majority. It looks like it’ll come down to parsing endorsements, and by that metric we’re the least sold on Ratcliff, who counts the building trades unions and former county Sheriff David Mahoney in the place of any real progressive endorsers. She also lacks the valuable experiences that Anderson, who is paralyzed from the waist down, and Baldeh, an immigrant from The Gambia, bring to the body. Anderson, who is endorsed by Mandela Barnes and multiple Dane County elected officials belonging to the Progressive Dane bloc, fares best in endorsements, but we’re splitting the smallest of hairs here.
AD-08 (Milwaukee)
Sylvia Ortiz-Velez (i) vs. Enrique Murguia
It's largely been forgotten now, but Sylvia Ortiz-Velez was, immediately after arriving in the legislature, a vote against COVID vaccination, siding with Republicans on efforts to kill vaccine mandates on multiple occasions. It’s the kind of thing that, even though her votes have since come more in line with the party mainstream, makes us much more willing to hear out a flawed challenger like Enrique Murguia. Murguia’s pitch is being more progressive than Ortiz-Velez, and his scrappy, hard-working campaign seems like it might be able to counterbalance having almost no money.
The fly in the ointment with Murguia is that he’s currently on probation after a pair of drunk driving arrests, the second of which led to a crash. The drunk driving incidents are from 2020, but he made the decision to fight the more serious one in court, which didn’t resolve until this year. The details of the incident are concerning (the man blew a 0.234 BAC), and Murguia’s decision to claim it wasn’t him in the car even though he admitted to it both the night of and several days later in a Facebook post made the incident cringeworthy. Murguia says he’s quit drinking, but also implies he only lost the court case because his lawyer was a Ortiz-Velez supporter, which doesn’t sound like the actions of a repentant man.
The anti-vaxxer or the drunk driver. Milwaukee, the choice is yours.
AD-09 (Milwaukee)
Deisy España vs. Priscilla Prado
This is a simple left-vs.-center primary. On the left, we have community organizer Deisy España, who lacks money but has the support of the state AFL-CIO, UAW, and Milwaukee’s leading progressive politicians like Assembs. Ryan Clancy and Darrin Madison and state Sen. Chris Larson. On the right/center, we have tax preparer Priscilla Prado, who’s backed by police and firefighters’ unions and the state realtors’ association. Prado is focused on housing development and public safety, while España is focused on healthcare, immigrants’ rights, and repealing Wisconsin’s anti-union right-to-work law.
AD-11 (Milwaukee)
Amillia Heredia vs. Sequanna Taylor
Dora Drake’s state Senate run opened up her northern Milwaukee Assembly district. The frontrunner is County Board member Sequanna Taylor, who has a financial advantage and name recognition from a decade in local government (despite lacking a campaign website.) She wants to bring her local government experience to Madison and help policymakers better navigate the relationship between the state and local governments, citing policies like a proposed alert system for survivors of domestic violence which can only be implemented at the state level. However, Taylor faces a spirited challenge from grad student Amillia “Mia” Heredia, who has served as president of UW-Milwaukee’s student government and has the endorsement of several local progressive groups like BLOC Milwaukee and Citizen Action of Wisconsin. Heredia, who works as a court-appointed special advocate for Milwaukee youth and an intern for the County Board, wants to bring her passion for child advocacy and combating racial inequity to Madison.
AD-12 (Milwaukee)
Russell Goodwin vs. Decorah Gordon vs. Katrina Blossom Morrison vs. Brandon Willford
This locally-focused, low budget contest probably comes down to healthcare policy professional Brandon Willford and legislative assistant Katrina Blossom Morrison. Morrison, who worked for LaKeshia Myers, also carries her endorsement, but has raised almost no money, making the few thousand that Willford cobbled together look like a fortune. Willford previously ran for county board on a transit-focused platform, and Morrison is a first time candidate, but both are quite young and haven’t defined themselves politically much yet.
Union steward Decorah Gordon was running a labor-focused campaign that seemed to have been going well, but she unexpectedly dropped out of the race just a few days ago. Former Republican pastor Russell Goodwin Sr., who lucked into a term on the Milwaukee County Board a few years ago, is also on the ballot.
AD-14 (Milwaukee suburbs - West Allis)
Brady Coulthard vs. Nathan Kieso vs. Angelito Tenorio
Campaign consultant Brady Coulthard, labor activist and social worker Nate Kieso, and former West Allis Ald. Angelito Tenorio are all running on broadly progressive platforms. All three share a focus on expanding Medicaid and shifting funding away from school vouchers and charter schools and back into traditional public schools, and all three have raised and spent a good amount of money on their respective campaigns. Each candidate would bring a different underrepresented perspective to Madison: Coulthard is young and queer, Kieso is a rank-and-file union activist, and Tenorio is a Filipino-American veteran. Endorsements from local and statewide organizations and politicians are split between these three candidates; perhaps unsurprisingly, labor prefers Kieso (though some unions are backing Coulthard), West Allis elected officials like Tenorio and Coulthard, and progressive groups split between Tenorio and Coulthard.
AD-18 (Milwaukee and Wauwatosa)
Margaret Arney vs. Angela Kennedy
This could be a geographic contest if Angela Kennedy was running a serious campaign. Kennedy is from Milwaukee, and this seat joins parts of central Milwaukee to the eastern end of the suburb of Wauwatosa. However, she isn’t doing that, leaving Wauwatosa Ald. Margaret Arney as the clear and overwhelming favorite to win this open seat. Arney bills herself as a progressive who is “100% pro-union,” “100% pro-choice,” and a firm supporter of public schools, and she has support from established figures in the city of Milwaukee itself like U.S. Rep. Gwen Moore and city attorney Evan Goyke, who vacated this seat in April after winning the city attorney election.
AD-19 (Milwaukee)
Ryan Clancy (i) vs. Jarrod Anderson
Assemb. Ryan Clancy is one of the founding members of the Wisconsin legislature’s fledgling socialist caucus, and his outspoken left-wing politics probably would have made him a target regardless of whether or not Clancy had endorsed the Uncommitted campaign (termed “uninstructed” in Wisconsin); however, Clancy’s endorsement of the anti-Biden protest vote was cited by challenger Jarrod Anderson as a reason for running. Biden’s withdrawal from the race both moots the issue and vindicates the Uncommitted campaign, so Anderson is stuck arguing in vague terms that Clancy isn’t enough of a team player. However, Anderson has plenty of money to get that message out, and many in the Milwaukee establishment—including County Executive David Crowley and Mayor Cavalier Johnson, as well as some of Clancy’s House colleagues—are lending their support to Anderson as well. Police unions and business PACs have spent heavily on Anderson, making this a very expensive race.
AD-44 (Janesville and outlying areas)
Catherine Myers vs. Ann Roe
Janesville School Board member Catherine Myers had a brief moment of national notoriety, as the primary candidate Randy “Iron Stache” Bryce had to beat before he could be the WI-01 nominee. 2018 was a wild time—if that didn’t make sense to you, read all about it here. Myers lost that primary by a respectable 60%-40%, and carved out a persona only slightly less progressive than Bryce. This time around she gets to be the more progressive candidate, running against local small business owner Ann Roe for an open seat in the legislature. Roe is running on extremely vague policy platitudes, and has support from the Wisconsin Realtors Association.
AD-47 (Madison suburbs)
Joe Maldonado vs. Randy Udell
Fitchburg Ald. Joe Maldonado is facing off with a former colleague on the city council, Randy Udell, for a seat representing some of Madison’s suburbs and rural outskirts. Maldonado is focused on “collaboration” and “bringing people to the table,” which is nice, but not an actual policy in any way, shape, or form. He wants to legalize cannabis, improve youth services, and expand healthcare access, according to a press release announcing his candidacy, but for someone who appears to be the progressive choice (more on that in a bit) he’s unusually vague and nonprofit-y in the way he presents himself. Udell is more specific, focusing on rural broadband, Medicaid expansion, a state-level child tax credit, and abortion rights, among other core Democratic issues. It’s only when you look at each candidate’s backers that the contrast becomes clear: Udell is supported by local police unions and associations representing realtors and developers, while some prominent Wisconsin progressives, including former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes and Madison state Rep. Francesca Hong, are backing Maldonado. Udell seems favored, as he has a financial advantage, labor backing, and the support of many local officials.
AD-48 (Madison suburbs)
Bill Connors vs. Andrew Hysell vs. Goodwill Obieze vs. Avery Renk vs. Rick Rose
In the final days of this 5-candidate race, 4 of them united to tell the public that Andrew Hysell, a businessman who has donated considerably to conservative Republicans, may have misused millions in federal funds while administering a reading program in Kansas. Hysell responded that “they’re afraid I’m winning,” and given the facts of the case, so are we. Any non-Hysell candidate pulling it out here is a victory. If we truly had our choice of the field, it would be 25-year-old progressive attorney Avery Renk. Unfortunately, even though he has the endorsement of Gary Hebl, who represented most of the current from 2005-2023, lags behind the field in fundraising. Dane County Super. Rick Rose has earned voters’ trust through years of consistent commitment to the kind of values Dane County is known for. Sun Prairie City Council President Bill Connors also seems fine even if we don’t love the way he’s self funding his campaign or his incredibly vague policy stances. Finally, HR manager Goodwill Obieze could be another good pick—he was endorsed by Progressive Dane when he ran for county supervisor in 2021, but his campaign, like Renk’s, is underfunded.
AD-65 (Kenosha)
Ben DeSmidt vs. Kyle Flood
Incumbent state Assemb. Tod Ohnstad is attempting to calmly retire and hand off his seat to restaurant owner and associate history professor Ben DeSmidt, the normalest of normal Democrats. That’s exactly the kind of thing that School Board member Kyle Flood doesn’t want to happen. First elected at only 18, Flood is taking his first crack at a higher profile office, and is running against insider politics and business as usual as much as he’s running for anything in particular. His vision is to “bring together independents, Democrats, progressives, socialists, libertarians”. He wants to move to term-limited, non-partisan elections, and as much as this all might sound a little naïve, or even outright crankish, he’s been endorsed by the SEIU and six members of county government.
AD-77 (Madison)
Chuck Erickson vs. Renuka Mayadev vs. Thad Schumacher
This contest, in the heart of Madison, is a quiet and respectful affair between three qualified candidates, rather than an explosive left vs. center battle that often happens when a seat opens up in a city like Madison. Dane County Board Member Chuck Erickson would be one of only a few out gay members of the legislature, and we like his focus on the rights of queer and trans youth. He’s endorsed by the SEIU but has raised the least of the field, at under $50,000. The fundraising leader, at nearly twice that, is University of Wisconsin program administrator Renuka Mayadev, who has an encouraging background in nonprofits and public policy, as well as a focus on reproductive rights. Pharmacy owner Thad Schumacher appears to be a regional candidate from the suburb of Fitchburg, where his pharmacy, campaign headquarters, and endorsers are all from, which is strange, because it’s not in the district.
AD-78 (Madison)
Shelia Stubbs (i) vs. Maia Pearson
Incumbent Sheila Stubbs is a shaky Democratic vote in the Assembly, siding with Republicans on COVID restrictions, criminal justice reform, and general culture war bullshit. She’s far from the worst offender in the Democratic caucus, but one of the bluest districts in the state should be able to elect someone they don’t have to worry about at all. That could be Madison School Board Member Maia Pearson, who is explicitly pitching herself as “the progressive candidate in the race” while Stubbs touts her bipartisanship. Statewide Democrats like Gov. Tony Evers don’t have too much of a problem with Stubbs, but this is Madison, Pearson is running a real campaign, and upsets can’t be counted out, especially given how much of this district is new to Stubbs.
AD-80 (Madison and suburbs)
Mike Bare (i) vs. Nasra Wehelie
Freshman Mike Bare hasn’t done anything wrong per se. He was elected in 2022 on a vaguish but labor focused platform, and has voted in line with the party since he was sworn in. This primary is less about Bare and more about redistricting, which shifted him from a rural and suburban district west of Madison to a district about half inside the city limits. Madison Ald. Nasra Wehelie would be the first Muslim woman to serve in the state legislature, and brings the upfront progressive energy of Madison, which could be an asset if Democrats wind up with narrow control of the legislature, and bills need to be fought for, not just against. Bare should do well in the suburbs, and has been endorsed by both Gov. Tony Evers and Sen. Tammy Baldwin (herself a Dane County native) but Wehelie could win on the strength of Madison voters, who she’s courted with endorsements from Madison’s current and former mayors Satya Rhodes-Conway and Paul Soglin.
Dane County Executive
Melissa Agard vs. Dana Pellebon vs. Wes Sparkman vs. Regina Vidaver
State Sen. Melissa Agard is the favorite in this race. She’d got the most money and was endorsed by the previous two county executives. Are any of the other candidates worth considering? Let’s examine the field. Wes Sparkman, Director of The Tamara D. Grigsby Office for Equity and Inclusion in Dane County, who describes himself as “moderate to progressive”, is the weakest candidate on housing, sounding less interested in pushing localities to rapidly build up housing stock like will be required as Dane County grows. County Board Super. Dana Pellebon is the only candidate functionally rejecting a regional transit agency over the cost and taxes it would require. That just leaves Madison Ald. Regina Vidaver as a worthwhile alternative to Agard. Both women want forward-thinking adjustments that incorporate the increasingly urban future of Madison while halting suburban sprawl, and have working class backgrounds that inspire them to focus on economic and social justice while in office. Either would make a fantastic executive.