We have a special Saturday preview for you, because heavily Democratic Hawaiʻi holds its primaries on Saturdays. The governorship, lieutenant governorship, and one of the state’s two House seats are open, and redistricting plus a wave of primary challenges have provided for a lively state legislative election cycle as well. Polls close at 1 AM Eastern Time, so staying up to wait for the Aloha State’s results might not be the best idea if you’re on the mainland, at least in the Eastern and Central time zones.
HI-Gov
Josh Green vs. Kaialiʻi “Kai” Kahele vs. Vicky Cayetano vs. Richard Kim vs. David Bourgoin vs. Clyde Lewman vs. Van Tanabe
While former First Lady of Hawaiʻi Vicky Cayetano has been running a credible campaign for a while, it was long assumed that Lt. Gov. Josh Green would win without much of a fight. (Thankfully, because Cayetano is much more conservative than Green.) Shortly before the filing deadline, however, first-term U.S. Rep. Kai Kahele unexpectedly announced he would leave Congress to seek the governorship. The race between Green and Kahele became exceptionally nasty in record time: Kahele accused Green of profiting off the state’s response to COVID, which Green (also a practicing emergency room physician) oversaw, and Green responded by accusing Kahele of being a slumlord for an LLC he controlled which regularly filed eviction lawsuits against tenants at the LLC’s Tennessee properties. Cayetano joined in to echo Kahele’s attacks on Green’s ethics. Green and Kahele are both running generally progressive-sounding campaigns, but progressive groups firmly prefer Kahele, partially out of distrust of Green’s record and financial backers and partially because Kahele has embraced them.
HI-Lt. Gov.
Keith Amemiya vs. Ikaika Anderson vs. Sherry Menor-McNamara vs. Sylvia Luke vs. Daniel Cunningham vs. Sam Puletasi
Really, this race has four serious candidates. Keith Amemiya was Sen. Brian Schatz’s campaign treasurer and a fixture of the less public-facing side of Hawaiʻi politics; in 2020, he ran for mayor of the City and County of Honolulu (coterminous with the island of Oʻahu, not just the urban area of Honolulu; the actual city is unincorporated.) Unfortunately, he lost to Trump-voting Republican “independent” Rick Blangiardi. However, a majority of the state lives on Oʻahu, so he has fairly recent name recognition with a lot of voters. Amemiya is progressives’ tentative favorite here, and is one of the two serious candidates who doesn’t throw up serious red flags. Former Honolulu City Council Chair Ikaika Anderson and businesswoman Sherry Menor-McNamara are both obviously bad news; Anderson touts the endorsement of the state’s police union, and Menor-McNamara is the president and CEO of the Hawaiʻi Chamber of Commerce. State Rep. Sylvia Luke is the other candidate who isn’t outwardly terrible; while a fairly standard Democrat, a shady super PAC that functions as a slush fund for the construction industry is directing a torrent of attack ads her way, which is a point in her favor. (The PAC’s predecessor PAC also spent on Blangiardi’s behalf against Amemiya in 2020, and on Green’s behalf against current HI-02 candidate Jill Tokuda in the 2018 lieutenant gubernatorial primary.) Luke has led in the polls, but this is a volatile race she could very well lose.
HI-01 (Honolulu)
Ed Case (i) vs. Sergio Alcubilla
Ed Case is a political cockroach. A white Blue Dog who regularly causes problems for House Democrats despite holding a deep-blue, majority-minority district should’ve gotten washed out a long time ago; one who retired in 2006 for a doomed primary against a US Senator, then cost Democrats a House seat by splitting the Democratic vote in a special election in 2010, then dropped out of the primary for the regular election for that same seat in 2010, then lost another Senate primary in 2012, and then got passed over for a US Senate appointment in 2014 shouldn’t have been able to return to Congress after spending a full decade getting brutally owned by every Democrat he ran against. But in 2018, he did just that, because a crowded field of candidates split the vote enough for Case’s 40% to earn him the Democratic nomination. He went unchallenged in the 2020 primary, and in 2022 his race was never a priority for national progressives despite being an extremely obvious and deserving target. Thankfully, Hawaiʻi progressives decided to take him on anyway, no matter how daunting the odds. Attorney Sergio Alcubilla has raised and spent little, but he’s won the support of organized labor—nowhere more important than in Hawaiʻi, where union members make up a higher share of the workforce than any other state—and benefited from some small expenditures from progressive PAC Our Hawaiʻi. He’s an extreme underdog—the only poll of this race had him trailing Case 65% to 8%—but the Our Hawaiʻi spending and much of the labor consolidation behind Alcubilla occurred after that poll was conducted in late June. It’s hard not to feel like this is just a wasted opportunity, though. Case’s record bears a strong resemblance to Kurt Schrader’s or Henry Cuellar’s—he even helped kill Build Back Better—and unlike those two, there’s little chance Republicans could win his district. Going after Ed Case should have been an easy call for national progressives looking to thin the ranks of House Democrats who don’t even vote for baseline Democratic agenda items; for whatever reason, almost nobody went for it, even when presented with a candidate with meaningful organizational support on the ground.
HI-02 (Northern Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, the Big Island, Maui, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi)
Jill Tokuda vs. Patrick Pihana Branco vs. Brendan Schultz vs. Nicole Gi vs. Steven Sparks vs. Kyle Yoshida
As mentioned above, Rep. Kai Kahele surprised observers (including us) when he abruptly abandoned reelection to make a very long-shot gubernatorial bid. The race to succeed him isn’t as crowded as one would expect of an open congressional seat in deep-blue Hawaiʻi because potential candidates had so little time to decide whether to run, and as a result it’s essentially a two-way race.
Former state Sen. Jill Tokuda has been a pretty standard Democrat throughout her career, and her issue positions in this race are fairly vague. Progressives are nevertheless going all-out to get her elected; the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC, as well as Pramila Jayapal’s Medicare for All PAC, have been backing her up on the airwaves, and progressive Hawaiʻi politicians like state Rep. Adrian Tam and U.S. Sen. Mazie Hirono (Tokuda’s former boss) have vocally supported her campaign. Perhaps Tokuda’s made commitments behind the scenes—the CPC may accept a lot of decidedly not-progressive members who are already in Congress, but they seldom spend on candidates who won’t at least be reliable votes, and Jayapal’s personal spending indicates a higher-than-usual level of CPC investment here. More likely, they’re pissed at her main opponent, state Rep. Patrick Pihana Branco.
Branco, already an irritating moderate and cryptocurrency fetishist in the Legislature, has benefited from a flood of spending from cryptocurrency PACs and other various centrist groups (plus VoteVets, which ostensibly exists to elect Democratic veterans of all stripes but for some reason mostly spends in primaries on behalf of ones who will be absolutely terrible in Congress.) He will absolutely be a voice for the wealthy and powerful in Congress if he wins. Tokuda will be…well, we don’t know exactly, but she’ll certainly be better than Branco would be.
A housekeeping note: we normally avoid swing districts, especially ones that voted for Donald Trump in the last presidential election. We’ve made the occasional exception in the past—Josh Gottheimer’s old district in 2020, for example, and Trump-voting districts where Republicans failed to get a candidate on the ballot. We’re going to make a blanket exception in Hawaiʻi’s state legislature, because the Republican caucus in both chambers is so pitifully tiny (four members of the 51-member state House and one member of the 25-member state Senate) and the Democratic caucus so expansive (including outright conservatives, like state Sen. Mike Gabbard, father of Tulsi) that continued Democratic control of the legislature is all but guaranteed and the Democratic caucus shedding moderates and conservatives might actually move state policy leftward.
SD-01 (Hilo)
Laura Acasio (i) vs. Lorraine Inouye (i) vs. Wil Okabe
This is an incumbent-on-incumbent contest where both incumbents need an asterisk next to their claims of incumbency. Laura Acasio was appointed to the Senate just last year. She has never faced voters before in any capacity. Meanwhile, Lorraine Inouye has served in the Senate for 16 years, and has a political career dating back to the 1980s. However, she’s not really an incumbent for this district. She represents SD-04, the district to the north of this one, and is running here because redistricting moved the boundary line just north of where she lives, placing her in SD-01. Only 4,115 of the district’s 50,485 residents—about 8%—are part of her old district. (Despite sharing his surname, she is not related to the late Sen. Daniel Inouye—but Daniel Inouye’s legendary status in Hawaiʻi may boost her anyway.) Wil Okabe, Managing Director of the County of Hawaiʻi until 2019, and former President of the Hawai‘i State Teachers Association, is also running, though it looks like it’s going to be an Acasio/Inouye race.
Inouye, one of the longest serving Senators, and the Majority Whip, is still the favorite here. She has far more money ($194K to Acasio’s $35K), and is supported by both organized labor and the Chamber of Commerce. She’s the consummate establishment politician: rarely terrible (except on criminal justice issues) but rarely all that great as well. In fact, in 2018 she nearly lost reelection to a more progressive, Teachers Association-backed challenger. Hawai‘i’s vast network of small progressive groups are hoping that she’s more vulnerable than she looks, both because knocking out a member of leadership would do a lot for the direction of the Senate, but also because Laura Acasio is at present one of the most progressive members of the legislature in either chamber. She’s an environmentalist, and, importantly, one of the few members of the Senate to oppose SB 2510, a bill that would functionally limit solar and wind generation on the island to save other, “firm” power generation techniques.
SD-06 (Western Maui)
Shaina Forsyth vs. Tamara Goebbert vs. Angus McKelvey
State Rep. Angus McKelvey is a strong favorite to win this open seat that he’s represented the northern half of since 2007. Tamara Goebbert, a former state House staffer, and Shaina Forsyth, the directors of residences at a luxury resort, are both first-time candidates seen as long shots. They’re not raising much money, and haven’t laid down much, if any, policy differences with McKelvey.
SD-07 (Eastern Maui, Moloka‘i, Lāna‘i)
Lynn DeCoite (i) vs. Leo Caires vs. Walter Ritte
Walter Ritte is a highly regarded Native Hawaiian activist. Over the last 4 decades he's been involved in so many battles over conservation of Hawaiian lands and had such a profound influence both in Hawai‘i and on the mainland that it would be difficult to summarize here. In 2020, he decided to run for the state house to continue this work. His opponent was Lynn DeCoite, an undistinguished state rep best known for, if anything, for her enthusiasm for cockfighting. She beat him by just 89 votes. Soon after, she was appointed to the state senate, and Ritte decided to take his fight up a chamber.
SD-11 (Central Honolulu)
Carol Fukunaga vs. Ian Ross
Honolulu City Councilmember Carol Fukunaga used to represent this seat, until she was primaried out in 2012 by conservative Brian Taniguchi, who is retiring this year. She’s spent the interim on the Honolulu City Council, which has helped her maintain an unbroken 44 year streak in public office. She is not a disastrously bad politician, but is part of the old guard (again, 44 year unbroken streak) and Makiki/Lower Punchbowl/Tantalus Neighborhood Board Chair Ian Ross is running to her left, mostly on housing, pushing to tackle Hawai‘i’s spiraling housing prices by investing in social housing (the “Singapore model”) while Fukunaga’s solution is for the state to get better jobs, which is to say no solution. While Fukunaga has a lot of business group buy-in, Ross has some powerful supporters of his own, including former Honolulu Mayor Kirk Caldwell and the Hawaiʻi State Teachers Association.
SD-16 (North-Central Honolulu)
Bennette Misalucha (i) vs. Brandon Elefante
Ten-year Honolulu City Councilmember Brandon Elefante is challenging appointed incumbent Bennette Misalucha. While the election is seen as more of a clash of personalities and name IDs, Misalucha has acted like a more moderate politician during her brief time in the limelight, while Elefante distinguished himself as one of the two votes on the City Council against the sit-lie ban, the city’s most recent assault on the homeless.
SD-19 (West Loch and Royal Kunia, Oʻahu)
Henry Aquino vs. Roger Clemente
State Rep. Henry Aquino has effectively cleared the field for him to move up to the Senate. The only opposition comes from Roger Clemente, who has run for this seat multiple times before—this is his first time doing so as a Democrat, though.
HD-03 (Hilo, Big Island)
Chris Todd (i) vs. Shannon Matson
Shannon Matson first ran for state house in 2020. The activist, Sierra Club Board member, County of Hawai‘i Cost of Government Commissioner, natural food seller and yoga teacher challenged incumbent Richard Onishi, and lost 56-35. Since then, she’s served a few months as a Vice Chair for the Hawai‘i Democratic Party, and gotten redistricted into a new district. She’s running for House again, challenging not Onishi again, but Chris Todd. Todd, like Onishi, has benefited from the establishment and labor circling around him. Matson, as she was last time, is a long shot, but she at least has the benefit of an incumbent knocked away from half his base through redistricting this time.
HD-06 (Big Island west coast)
Ilya Barannikov vs. Kirstin Kahaloa vs. Lono Mack
In this open seat, Kirstin Kahaloa, former aide to Senator Dru Mamo Kanuha, is a strong favorite and backed by everyone from labor to the chamber of commerce. Artist Ilya Barannikov is also running and has sworn off corporate contributions.
HD-08 (Big Island north coast)
David Tarnas (i) vs. Makai Freitas
David Tarnas is, on the whole, one of the better members of the House, but he’s being challenged by Makai Freitas, president of ILWU Unit 1201 and son of the late pro football player Rockne Freitas. Though the ILWU is usually pretty lefty, Freitas isn’t running on a particularly ideological angle against Tarnas.
HD-09 (Kahului, Maui)
Justin Woodson (i) vs. Sam Peralta
Sam Peralta is running on the Maui ‘Ohana slate, run by the Maui Pono Network, the island’s largest progressive group. While mostly focused on local races, the slate also includes Angus McKelvey in SD-06, Walter Ritte in SD-07, and a few house races. State Rep. Justin Woodson is one of Hawai‘i’s quiet background legislators, and a realtor when he’s out of session.
HD-11 (Maui west coast)
Terez Amato vs. Randal Mahiai
Terez Amato is the progressive choice here, and she’s not shy about it—when she’s not hammering good-government talking points, she’s touting the endorsement of “Bernie Sanders’s Our Revolution” (not just “Our Revolution,” the actual name of the group) and promising to push for climate action, higher minimum wages, and affordable housing development on state land. In addition to progressive groups, she has outgoing state Rep. Tina Wildberger and a few unions in her corner. Unrelatedly, her campaign website has one of the most gloriously corny campaign images we’ve ever seen:
Hotel worker Randal Mahiai has the state AFL-CIO behind him, and he’s… running against roundabouts?
HD-13 (Maui east coast, Moloka‘i, Lāna‘i)
Linda Ann Haʻi Clark (i) vs. Chase Keali‘imalu Nomura vs. Mahina Poepoe
This visually bizarre district connects the eastern coast of Maui with three smaller islands in Maui County west of Maui—Moloka‘i, Lāna‘i, and Kaho‘olawe, the last of which has been unpopulated ever since the U.S. government decided to use the island, which largely lacks fresh water, as a bombing range beginning during World War II and only ending in 1990. Moloka‘i and Lāna‘i are rural with agricultural economies, while Maui is more tourism-dependent (though the eastern end of the island, in this district, is more sparsely populated and less touristy than the rest of Maui, so the non-contiguous nature of this district makes sense to give rural Maui County its own district.) Appointed incumbent Linda Ann Ha‘i Clark, who succeeded Lynn DeCoite upon her ascension to the Senate, hails from the most rural and isolated southern part of the Maui portion of the district; challenger Chase Keali‘imalu Nomura is also from Maui, but from the more populated northern end, and challenger Mahina Poepoe is from Moloka‘i. Poepoe, a Native Hawaiian activist aligned with Walter Ritte and Maui County’s progressive faction, is the most overtly progressive of the three. Clark, like most incumbents, has the bulk of organized labor on her side, but Nomura managed to get the endorsement of the Hawai‘i State Teachers’ Association. We don’t think any of the three candidates can be counted out here.
HD-14 (Northwest Maui)
Kanamu Balinbin vs. Elle Cochran
Elle Cochran has been a fixture of Maui politics for years, the de facto leader of Maui County’s progressive faction on the county council until she lost a bid for county mayor in 2018. Businessman Kanamu Balinbin is not a first-time candidate—he lost to outgoing incumbent Angus McKelvey in 2020 (when this district was numbered 10 rather than 14), and lost to Cochran herself for her West Maui county council seat in 2016. Progressives are excited about Cochran’s potential return to office, and Balinbin’s 0-2 record is an encouraging sign for her chances.
HD-19 (East Honolulu)
Mark Jun Hashem (i) vs. Kathy Feldman
State Rep. Mark Jun Hashem chairs the House Agriculture Committee, but other than that he’s been a pretty low-key legislator. Author and educator Kathy Feldman is taking him on from the left.
HD-20 (ʻEwa Beach and ʻEwa Gentry, Oʻahu)
Bert Kobayashi (i) vs. James Logue
James Logue, the former state director of the Hawaiʻi Government Employees Association lost a crowded primary for an open state House seat in 2016, then ran against the winner of that primary, now-state Rep. Daniel Holt, in 2018 and 2020. Redistricting has saved us from a third straight Logue-Holt duel, but Logue isn’t done running for office. Now he’s set his sights on state Rep. Bert Kobayashi, an extremely low-profile member of the legislature not to be confused with any of the three Hawaiʻi political megadonors also named Bert Kobayashi.
HD-22 (Manoa, Oʻahu)
Dale Kobayashi (i) vs. Andrew Takuya Garrett
State Rep. Dale Kobayashi describes himself as a progressive Democrat, but attended an event held by the Aloha Freedom Coalition, an anti-vaccine group with extensive ties to the far right, because he opposes COVID vaccination and testing mandates. If he loses to Andrew Takuya Garrett, a former state legislative staffer currently serving as the Director of the state Department of Human Resources Development, we won’t be upset.
HD-24 (Waikīkī, Honolulu)
Adrian Tam (i) vs. Ikaika Olds
Adrian Tam ousted a moderate, viciously anti-homeless state representative in 2020; since winning, he’s been one of the legislature’s most progressive members. Because he doesn’t think homelessness can be solved through incarceration or austerity, he naturally has a challenger, Ikaika Olds, who wants to be “TOUGH ON CRIME” backed by the state’s police union and some other relatively conservative unions. (Most of organized labor backed Tam in 2020 and is sticking with him now.)
HD-25 (Downtown/Capitol District, Honolulu)
Scott Saiki (i) vs. Kim Coco Iwamoto
Scott Saiki is the Speaker of the Hawaiʻi State House, not some obscure backbencher. He shouldn’t be having close calls in primaries—and yet in 2020, Kim Coco Iwamoto, a DSA-backed former member of the state Board of Education who works as an attorney in social services, nearly took him out, falling short by less than 200 votes. The Hawaiʻi Legislature, like far too many blue-state legislatures, is an obstacle to progressive policy rather than an engine for it; removing Saiki would help fix that. (It would also give Hawaiʻi its first openly transgender state legislator, which is neat.)
HD-26 (Central Honolulu)
Della Au Belatti (i) vs. Kanzo Nara vs. Valerie Wang
Della Au Belatti is the Majority Leader in the state House, which has made her a target largely to the same coalition that’s behind Kim Coco Iwamoto. They’re behind Valerie Wang—along with some labor unions, including the state’s police union. (Huh?) As far as we can tell, Wang is running to Belatti’s left with real support from progressives, which makes the police union all the more confusing.
HD-27 (Pacific Heights, Honolulu)
Gary Gill vs. Jenna Takenouchi
Gary Gill’s political career started in the 80s, when he was first elected to the Honolulu City Council, and ended in the 90s, when he unsuccessfully ran for mayor. Since then, he’s been serving in unelected roles at nonprofits and in state government. With the retirement of state Rep. Takashi Ohno, he’s decided to attempt a return to elected politics, clearly aligned with the progressive faction of Hawaiʻi’s Democratic Party and with a list of high-profile backers he’s built relationships with over his time in government, including Brian Schatz. Jenna Takenouchi, a staffer for Ohno, is the moderate option here, running a fairly nondescript campaign.
HD-28 (Downtown/Chinatown, Honolulu)
Daniel Holt (i) vs. Robert Mikala Armstrong vs. Ken Farm
Daniel Holt may have escaped another matchup with James Logue, but he’s not out of the woods. Neighborhood Board member Robert Mikala Armstrong is challenging him; while the ideological divides aren’t entirely clear to us, Armstrong is a proponent of the “Housing First” approach to homelessness and a supporter of good-government reforms, both of which we like to see.
HD-30 (Kalihi, Honolulu)
Ernesto “Sonny” Ganaden (i) vs. Romy Cachola vs. Shirley Ann Templo
This is the third straight matchup between Sonny Ganaden and Romy Cachola. Ganaden challenged Cachola from the left in 2018, losing by just 51 votes amid allegations of intimidation and voter fraud. Ganaden came back for another round in 2020, this time defeating Cachola by a wide margin with the support of organized labor. Cachola is looking for his old job back, and former Honolulu Council staffer Shirley Ann Templo is also in the running.
HD-33 (Pearl City, Oʻahu)
Sam Kong (i) vs. Tracy Arakaki
We’re going to recommend not getting too excited about this one. State Rep. Sam Kong switched over from the Republican Party in 2012, after which he’s faced Tracy Arakaki every primary season, without fail. Arakaki came close to winning in 2014, and just 37 votes away in 2016, but both campaign since then have been flops, and even if he were to succeed, replacing an ex-Republican with a tax-cut enthusiast is going to be a minimal upgrade.
HD-34 (Pearl City, Oʻahu)
Gregg Takayama (i) vs. Roy Takumi (i)
Redistricting chopped up Gregg Takayama’s district, appending his home neighborhood to that of Roy Takumi’s district. This could have turned into a herated campaign—after all, Takumi hasn’t faced a primary in 20 years, but both candidates have infuriatingly mutually insisted there’s little difference between them. Takumi, by virtue of representing most of this district already, is likely going to win this incumbent-on-incumbent contest, just as he did in 2002 against a different incumbent.
HD-35 (Central Oʻahu)
Cory Chun vs. Jolyn Garidan Prieto vs. Inam Rahman vs. Nathan Takeuchi
This election is likely between City Council staffer and Neighborhood Board member Cory Chun, who’s running as a tough-on-crime candidate, and Jolyn Garidan Prieto, the candidate of organized labor, which makes sense as she’s the government communications director for the firefighter’s union. Perennial candidate Inam Rahman won’t be a factor, but Nathan Takeuchi, running in a similarly centrist, policing-first lane to Chun, might be.
HD-36 (Waipahu, Oʻahu)
Rachele Fernandez Lamosao vs. Maurice Morita
Maurice Morita, the longtime Government Relations Director for the Teachers Association, now working freelance as a lobbyist, is facing off with Rachele Fernandez Lamosao, former Office Manager to Sylvia Luke. Both candidates have extensive connections in state government, and, like many of these contests, what has developed is a race that’s more about personality than policy.
HD-37 (Central Oʻahu)
Ryan Yamane (i) vs. Eric Sarrafian
Ryan Yamane is one of the more moderate members of the house: anti-marijuana, anti-gun control, and he very clearly killed a vape regulation bill on behalf of his Big Tobacco donors this year, even if he claims otherwise. 22-year-old poli sci student Eric Sarrafian is challenging him, but doesn’t seem super serious. He does at least have the equivocation skills of a practiced politician.
HD-39 (Central Oʻahu)
Jamaica Cullen vs. Corey Rosenlee vs. Kevin Kupihea Wilson
Corey Rosenlee, who was, until 2021, president of the Hawai‘i State Teachers Association, is a rare point of agreement between progressive groups, labor unions, and political establishment groups. He supports raising the minimum wage to $18/hr and instituting a carbon tax—overall, a great addition to the House. Also running is Jamaica Cullen, sister-in-law of ex-state Rep. Ty Cullen, who sent some of his campaign cash to her campaign right before he was sentenced last month for taking bribes, and Kevin Kupihea Wilson, a legislative aide who promises not to be indebted to unions and wants more funding for police.
HD-40 (ʻEwa, Oʻahu)
Wayne Kaulula‘au vs. Rose Martinez vs. Julie Reyes Oda
Former government employee and union president Wayne Kaulula‘au, former teacher and legislative aide Rose Martinez, and math teacher Julie Reyes Oda all appear to be running credible campaigns. Martinez is the most progressive of the three.
HD-42 (Kapolei and ‘Ewa, Oʻahu)
Sharon Har (i) vs. Lori Goeas vs. Anthony Makana Paris
Sharon Har was arrested last year on drunk driving charges after being found driving the wrong way on a one-way. Owing to some combination of bureaucratic foul-ups and the whims of a judge, the charges were dropped, and a House committee eventually cleared her of using her position of power improperly. Still, the damage to her reputation, and potentially reelection odds, cannot be cleared so easily. She faces two challengers: ludicrously well-funded former Hawai‘i Department of Education appointee Lori Goeas, and research analyst Anthony Makana Paris, who is running an overtly progressive campaign and has support from many of Honolulu’s progressive groups, though he’s more of a second tier priority with everything else happening.
HD-44 (Māili and Nānākuli, Oʻahu)
Darius Kila vs. Jonathan Lee
Legislative staffer Darius Kila seems like an overwhelming favorite over military veteran Jonathan Lee, a self-described moderate Democrat with support from some mainland groups.
HD-45 (Western Oʻahu)
Cedric Asuega Gates (i) vs. Jo Jordan
Jo Jordan made national news in 2013 as the first out gay legislator to vote against gay marriage. After losing her primary in 2016, she’s been making increasingly unsuccessful attempts to regain her old position back. We’re happy to report this one is almost certainly going to fail like all the rest.
HD-46 (Central Oʻahu)
Amy Perruso (i) vs. Cross Makani Crabbe
Amy Perruso is DSA’s lone legislator in Hawaiʻi; she primaried out an incumbent in 2018 and beat back a challenge from the center in 2020. She faces one again, from Rick Blangiardi staffer Cross Makani Crabbe.
HD-50 (Kailua, Oʻahu)
Toni Difante vs. Natalia Hussey-Burdick vs. Michael Lee vs. Esera Vegas
Michael Lee is probably the candidate to beat here, and he’s the only overt moderate in the field. Toni Difante and Esera Vegas could be factors in this race, but Lee’s main opponent appears to be progressive favorite Natalia Hussey-Burdick, who’s run before in a different district. This is Patrick Branco’s seat, so Lee is at worst a lateral move—and Hussey-Burdick, a staunch progressive, would be a major upgrade.
HD-51 (Waimānalo, Oʻahu)
Lisa Marten (i) vs. Kaleo Kwan
While Lisa Marten seems safe for reelection, Kaleo Kwan is a professional MMA fighter, which is not a bio you usually see in politics.
Honolulu Council District 2 (Northern shore)
Racquel Achiu vs. Lupe Funaki vs. Makuakai “Makua” Rothman vs. Chad Tsuneyoshi vs. Matt Weyer
Councilor Heidi Tsuneyoshi is running for the Republican nomination for governor, leaving her seat on O‘ahu’s rural North Shore open. Chad Tsuneyoshi, a political consultant who recently divorced amicably from Heidi, has largely worked for Democrats, but party loyalties can be muddled in Hawai‘i. Name recognition from his ex-wife’s tenure on the council alone makes him a contender to advance to November in this nonpartisan race where the top two candidates move on. Council staffer Matt Weyer is favored by organized labor; competitive big wave surfer Makuakai “Makua” Rothman has the advantage of running in a district where surfing is a huge part of the local culture and economy; Republican Lupe Funaki is running a religious Mormon campaign (Hawai‘i has a significant Mormon presence); Native Hawaiian farmer Racquel Achiu is skeptical of outside development and corporate interests, giving a to-the-point answer as to why she isn’t taking money from what she perceives to be special interests: “I ain’t gonna be bought.”
Honolulu Council District 6 (Central city)
Tyler Dos Santos-Tam vs. Ikaika Hussey vs. Nalani Jenkins vs. Chance Naauao-Ota vs. Dennis Nakasato vs. Traci Toguchi vs. Chad Wolke
Ikaika Hussey is running a progressive campaign focused on transit, walkability, urban densification, public electric, and rent control, all of which he frames as the best way to protect O‘ahu’s threatened natural resources and combat climate change. Ed Case staffer Chad Wolke, council staffer and former actress Traci Toguchi, and musician Nalani Jenkins are running towards the center, and former Democratic Party of Hawai‘i Chair Tyler Dos Santos-Tam is in between the two camps.
Honolulu Council District 8 (Central Oʻahu)
Val Aquino Okimoto vs. Charmaine Doran vs. Ron Menor vs. Dion Mesta vs. Keone Simon
Former Honolulu City Council Chair Ron Menor and Republican state House Leader Val Aquino Okimoto should be the favorites to advance to November given their name recognition from years in Hawai‘i politics. Legislative staffer Charmaine Doran is running a more overtly progressive campaign than Menor, but Menor is backed by labor and at least tolerated by progressives. Dion Mesta, an aide to outgoing councilman Brandon Elefante, and Keone Simon, the 2020 Republican nominee for a state House seat, both seem as if they’ll be the odd ones out along with Doran, but could siphon off some votes from Menor and Okimoto, respectively.