7/19 Primary Preview
it's just Maryland
Maryland is the only state voting today, but all three statewide executive offices are open, the legislature’s four-year term means voters haven’t had a chance to elect any new legislators since 2018, Maryland’s use of multi-member districts provides extra volatility, and redistricting has scrambled the map, so there’s plenty going on anyway.
Special Maryland notes:
Maryland has a stupid rule in place disallowing the counting of absentee ballots until a week after the election. There’s a good chance many of these races won’t be called tonight.
State’s Attorney is Maryland-speak for District Attorney; Maryland’s state House is called the House of Delegates, not the standard House of Representatives
Maryland has 47 legislative districts, each of which elect one senator and three delegates. Usually, those three delegates are elected on one ballot from the entire district, but many districts are divided up into two portions, so that one portion elects one member and another elects two members. The two-member sub-district again elects both members on a single ballot, while the one-member sub-district functions as a traditional single-member district with one winner. A few districts are divided in three.
Governor
Peter Franchot vs. Doug Gansler vs. John King vs. Wes Moore vs. Tom Perez vs. various
After months of drama, the field has come down to three potential next governors of Maryland. Sure, former AG Doug Gansler and former US Secretary of Education John King have run non-embarrassing campaigns and will receive non-embarrassing shares of the vote—King may even reach double digits—but the the possible winners today are Comptroller Peter Franchot, nonprofit exec Wes Moore, and former US Secretary of Labor/DNC Chair Tom Perez.
Peter Franchot is the most moderate of the field, and would have a tough time reaching 50%. He’s probably not going to reach 30%. And yet, that may be enough to win. Franchot hasn’t run a great campaign, but he has run a baseline acceptable campaign and reminded voters that he exists. He has the most dependable base of the field (old people who remember him because he’s been in government forever), and depending on how turnout looks, that may save him. We don’t think it will, mostly because when a candidate doesn't grow in polling over the course of a campaign, they tend to have trouble beating their polling, while other candidates benefit from undecideds breaking their way. Despite leading in more or less every poll of this race and spending more on ads than any other candidate, Franchot has been mired around 20% in polls since the beginning. Maybe we’re wishcasting here because Franchot would be the only candidate running who would be an appreciable roadblock to progress in the state (the man tacitly supported Larry Hogan’s reeleciton, for fuck’s sake), but if we had to guess, we think he winds up in third.
There’s no progressive with a chance to win this race, but for anyone who wants at least a normal Democrat who will not cause problems, the options are Wes Moore and Tom Perez. Perez is the more predictable of the two. He’s been in the public spotlight for close to two decades, and even if this winds up being a stepping stone to a misguided presidential bid, you can rest assured that he’s at least a dependable party hack. Moore is the higher-risk, higher-reward candidate. He’s at least trying to appeal to progressives, most notably in his choice of former Del. Aruna Miller as his running mate, which gives the possibility that he’ll be a better governor than Perez and push for some initiatives Perez won’t. However, he has no record in government and is, to put it bluntly, a liar about his own ties to Baltimore, so he could also be below replacement level.
Moore has been polling right behind Franchot since the spring, but Perez has been catching up recently, and the final few polls of the race have the candidates neck-and-neck. Expect Moore to do best in PG County and Baltimore, while Perez’s base is in Montgomery County. Franchot should do strongest outside of the state’s metro areas—western Maryland and the Eastern Shore.
Attorney General
Anthony Brown vs. Katie Curran O'Malley
Everyone writing about this race has already noted about 100 times each how funny it is that former LG Anthony Brown should be making his return to state government by running against Katie Curran O'Malley, the wife of Martin O’Malley, his ticketmate, but one more time can’t hurt. It’s a weird dynamic! We just wish there was more to say about the candidates than that. Attorney General is an immensely powerful position, and the candidates aren’t disagreeing much on what they’d do with it. Instead, it’s been themes of experience and such. In fact, O’Malley, evidently realizing she’s behind, has gone negative in the home stretch of the race, calling out Brown for never having tried a criminal case as a prosecutor before. That’s a good thing, Katie. Polling here had been clearer than the gubernatorial race, with Brown in a small but comfortable lead, but undecideds were high, and then O’Malley was endorsed by the state’s two big newspapers, the Washington Post and the Baltimore Sun. In a less-noticed race with weaker candidate differentiation, that can matter a lot. There’s only one poll showing O’Malley up, but it’s the most recent—she has a slight 30% to 29% edge. Brown, being the choice of labor and more of the state’s big names, is a minor favorite here, but only a minor one.
Comptroller
Timothy Adams vs. Brooke Lierman
Bowie Mayor Tim Adams is, simply put, going to lose. We’re not even really sure why he’s running. He’s branded himself “unbought and unbossed” (the famous Shirley Chisholm line) because…he self-funded his own campaign with the fortune he made as CEO of a Department of Defense contractor. (Yes, he really did liken getting rich as one of a million barnacles attached to the underside of the military-industrial complex to being Shirley Chisholm.) He’s the choice of some of the Prince George’s County establishment, which is generally quite conservative, and basically nobody else. (Aside from the Mosbys, who are also terrible.) Progressives, organized labor, and Baltimore, in general, have united behind Del. Brooke Lierman, who represents a Baltimore district in the House of Delegates. Lierman is reasonably progressive and has a good voting record in the legislature, and led Adams 28-14 in a late June poll conducted by Goucher College; she’s both the better candidate and the likelier winner. Like in the AG race, both candidates would make history; like Anthony Brown, Adams would be the first Black person independently elected to statewide executive office in Maryland, and like Katie Curran O’Malley, Lierman would be the first woman independently elected to statewide executive office in Maryland.
MD-04 (Prince George’s County, inner DC suburbs)
Donna Edwards vs. Glenn Ivey (vs. Angela Angel and others)
It’s beyond bleak to consider this election's implications on our country’s democracy. The policy difference between the candidates is less than it’s been for some others we’ve covered, though it’s still quite important, but the most bone-chilling aspect of this race is the $6 million in spending from wealthy donors using AIPAC’s United Democracy Project super PAC as a conduit to target a candidate who displeased those donors. Donna Edwards is no radical—she’s a progressive from the 2000s who came relatively close to winning a Senate primary in 2016. But she was close to J Street, and that’s reason enough for conservative-leaning Israel hawks to spend millions to bury her.
This is the highest profile race tonight from a progressive perspective. If you’ve been reading us you probably know all you need to already—Edwards is running for Congress again, her opponent is PG establishment politician Glenn Ivey, running for this seat a second time after a 2016 bid went poorly.. She started ahead, but the onslaught of negative spending has even her allies in the League of Conservation Voters thinking she’s losing in their polling. Even if Edwards winds up winning by a narrow margin, like Summer Lee did after facing a wave of AIPAC spending, as opposed to Edwards’s tsunami, the money will have very clearly changed the state of play in the election.
Don’t let this read as a eulogy; it’s merely a howl of frustration. The votes are not counted, and Edwards could still win.
MD-05 (Southern Maryland)
Steny Hoyer (i) vs. Mckayla Wilkes
In 2020, Steny Hoyer demonstrated some real vulnerability. Despite evidently taking the race quite seriously, the 30-odd year incumbent received 64% of the vote—secure, but nothing to brag about considering the massive advantage in name recognition and resources he had over his opponents. The second-place finisher in that primary, Mckayla Wilkes, who got 27%, announced a rematch not long into 2021. On paper, this was a very promising contest for the left. Not only is it a much cleaner 1-on-1 shot, but redistricting made Black voters even more of the district, something Steny Hoyer has worked to avoid for decades. He has reason to be concerned about a less white electorate: in the 2020 primary, the more white a county was, the better he did in it (a sample size of just 5 counties, unfortunately; there were no precinct results in that race for more granular analysis.) Beyond that, in the last two years, progressives have finally managed to crack the moderate PG County establishment stranglehold in a few places, most notably on the school board, an effort that Wilkes was an organizer for.
All told, this should have been right up there with MD-04 as a top race to watch tonight, but it just didn't come together. Wilkes's fundraising, which was a major hindrance to her last cycle, was even worse this year. It forced her away from the small investments into TV and digital ads she made last cycle, and into a largely volunteer canvassing campaign. Tough but feasible somewhere like NYC or LA, it's nigh-unworkable in sprawling Southern Maryland. The kind of outside organizations that are useful for filling in the gaps never got involved in this race, while the ones who did—DFA, Roots Action, Sunrise Maryland—are similarly not the kind to make monetary investments. It's hard to predict what the final margin will be here, though if Hoyer's vote share falls from last cycle, it'll raise the question of what Wilkes could have done with a fuller campaign.
MD-06 (Western Maryland and outer DC suburbs)
David Trone (i) vs. Ben Smilowitz
Ben Smilowitz isn't a particularly interesting candidate, but in 2020 David Trone faced a challenger who didn't really seem to have a campaign outside of a website and still got 25% of the vote. Smilowitz has at least raised over $100,000, so it's worth keeping an eye on how he does to see if 2020 was a fluke or not.
SD-03 (Frederick)
Jay Mason vs. Karen Lewis Young
You could write a book about the Young dynasty and its effect on Frederick County politics. Spanning five decades, both parties, and offices at the municipal, county, and state levels, it's seen better days. Black sheep Blaine flamed out in 2014, and patriarch Ron is retiring this year. His wife, Del. Karen Lewis Young, now carries the family's banner. She has no guarantee of making it to the upper chamber, though. Board of Education President Jay Mason is running a credible campaign, though he's still the underdog, owing to a wealth of institutional support Young has been able to call in. Whether he's actually preferable here is a matter of taste. While the Youngs (the Democrats among them, anyway) are center-left at best, Karen is still a rock solid vote in the legislature, and Mason, despite running against her, hasn't tried to distinguish himself ideologically from her.
We're not covering it in detail because of the competitive general election, but Board of Education Member and self described "fiscal conservative" Brad Young is forgoing reelection to run for County Council, and has a contested primary. It's possible, though not all that likely, for the Young dynasty to end tonight.
SD-08 (NE Baltimore suburbs)
Kathy Klausmeier (i) vs. Thomas Mwaura
Kathy Klausmeier has spent two decades in the Senate, and deserves a good primary challenge by this point, especially now that her district has reached majority-minority status. However, her opponent, IT professional Thomas Mwaura, is running a low-budget campaign to her right, if anything. Sigh—maybe 2026.
SD-10 (Western Baltimore County)
Ben Brooks vs. Jay Jalisi (vs. Stephanie Boston and Lawrence Williams)
Any chance you remember state Del. Jay Jalisi? We wrote about him all the way back in our first primary preview, for the MD-07 special election. Jalisi was singled out for being unambiguously awful, a conservative lawmaker so capriciously abusive to his staff that the chamber took the extraordinary step of not allowing him to have any. He got absolutely demolished in that race, and that history repeats itself here. SD-19 isn't known for electing the most progressive lawmakers—his opponent, fellow Del. Ben Brooks, is pretty meh—but Jalisi is several steps too far.
SD-18 (inner DC suburbs, Chevy Chase to Wheaton)
Jeff Waldstreicher (i) vs. Max Socol
DC's DSA chapter is only going on offense in one state legislative race this year, and this is it. The district they chose to do it in is, while not the most primed for the left in the metro area, at least promising. Much of the voter base is younger professionals who might otherwise be living in DC proper if they didn't feel priced out. Much of it is also lobbyists and defense contractors who prefer a McMansion to a luxury condo, but what are you going to do? It also has an incumbent who is lacking, to say the least. Jeff Waldstreicher chairs the committee overseeing criminal justice reform legislations, and has for his entire 4 years in office. That means he oversaw legislation during the post-George Floyd reform attempts, and the relative limpness of Maryland’s reforms must be partially laid at his feet. Teacher Max Socol has been running a vigorous grassroots campaign challenging Waldstreicher, powered by the kind of volunteer army you rarely see in suburban politics.
For a while it looked like Waldstreicher felt like he had this under control, but then in June the state Senate Democratic Caucus sent out mailers attacking Socol for mean tweets. While candidates have been sunk by those before, these mailers were weak stuff. One quoted tweet, saying “a vote for Joe Biden is a vote to kill working people” is potentially damaging, but it’s a glimpse into their psychology that they think telling some “get the fuck out of this political party” in 2019 is some great damaging sin, or that voters will be frightened by the prospect of a representative “cursing at anyone who disagrees with him”. Regardless of their effectiveness, they mean someone is scared of Max Socol, and that’s good news.
SD-23 (Outer ring of PG County/DC suburbs)
Ron Watson (i) vs. Raaheela Ahmed vs. Sylvia Johnson
Ron Watson is an appointed incumbent, and those rarely stand for reelection without any difficulty. Watson was, however, a state Delegate from the overlapping House district before he was appointed, and beat two incumbents to get there. He's better positioned than most. Regardless, the growing progressive movement within PG County thinks they have a shot here, and want to make their entry to the state Senate with Raaheela Ahmed. Ahmed is on the PG County School Board, where she and the rest of the progressive majority have repeatedly clashed with the more moderate forces with their hands on every other lever of county government. Ahmed's candidacy has caused a rare split in organized labor. She's managed to land not only the somewhat obvious teacher's unions (though even they aren't a lay-up for a Board of Ed member; they're backing Karen Lewis Young in SD-03), but also unions representing school support staff as well. Progressive groups like the Working Families Party and Progressive MD have also endorsed her. Watson remains a favorite, especially if ex-pharma executive Sylvia Johnson soaks up much of the non-establishment vote.
SD-26 (Southern DC suburbs, Hillcrest heights to Accokeek)
Tamara Davis Brown vs. C. Anthony Muse
C. Anthony Muse has represented this district in the House of Delegates from 1995-1999 and the Senate 2007-2019. He is seen as a strong favorite to regain the seat he left to (very unsuccessfully) run for County Executive, a prospect that should trouble everyone with a perspective towards the LGBTQ community less bigoted than Rick Santorum. Muse, a megachurch pastor, was the deciding vote to kill one of the holdouts on gay marriage legislation that denied its passage until the votes could be found without him. When the votes were finally found, he did every he could to stop it, including donating to the right-wing campaign to overturn it via ballot measure and writing a Washington Post op-ed for the campaign. He was in many ways the anti-gay marriage movement’s most public face in Maryland; all the while refusing to even meet with gay groups, at one point famously slipping a note out from under his door saying he opposed gay marriage and civil unions when they came to his office. Anti-gay hate group National Organization for Marriage found him such an ally, they were doing robocalls for his US Senate campaign that year. Muse was opposed to keeping gay marraige out of more than just Maryland; he lobbied the Republican-controlled House of Representatives to pass a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marraige. Once he was elected in 2006, Muse was the deciding vote to keep discrimination against trans Maryalnders legal until they found the votes without him in 2014. He's argued in the past for the need to protect businesses who engage in anti-gay discrimination, voted to deny gay couples hospital visitation rights (something that even had GOP support in the legislature)
Muse’s record on other issues is similarly dismal. He’s outright opposed abortion during campaigns in the past (it hasn’t come up this time around, somehow) and his record is solidly anti-choice. He voted against the high-profile bill to allow DREAMers in-state tuition, has been dismal on the environment, and so much more that we don’t have space for (okay, one more he voted not to expand the civil statute of limitations for clergy sexual abuse of children—again, he runs a megachurch.)
Unfortunately, Muse is seen as a strong favorite to regain his seat, owing to his decades of political connections. The only hope to stop this homophobe from returning to the Senate is Tamara Davis Brown. Davis Brown has been involved with state and county government for decades, but has yet to succeed in any electoral endeavors. Brown is running on the slate of Del. Veronica Turner, while Muse is running on Del. Kriselda Valderrama’s.
SD-28 (Charles County, southernmost DC exurbs)
Arthur Ellis vs. Vontasha Simms
Arthur Ellis upset the local establishment four years ago when he took down longtime state Sen. Thomas “Mac” Middleton, a white, moderate holdover from the days when Charles County (and Southern Maryland in general) was a stronghold of rural white Democrats. But Charles County has transformed rapidly in recent decades as the growth of the DC metro area spilled over the southern border of Prince George’s County; today, Charles County is majority-Black and very Democratic, populated by middle-class civil servants and government contractors much like Prince George’s County to the north. Vontasha Simms, a community activist and member of the Charles County Democratic Central Committee, wouldn’t bring Charles County back to the Middleton days. She’s best known not for her involvement in partisan politics, but for her advocacy for improved mental health services—advocacy she came to after the tragic death of her three-year-old grandson, which happened after her daughter was left with sole custody of the boy and inadequate support for her own mental health challenges.
SD-32 (Western Anne Arundel County, DC-Baltimore sprawl mix)
Pamela Beidle (i) vs. Sarah Lacey
Pamela Beidle, a freshman in the Senate, is far from the worst member of the body, but she's far from the best either. You'll never hear her out in front arguing for progressive causes, and while she's adopted a rubber stamp attitude towards legislation in the Senate, in the 12 years she served in the House prior she was not as shy about breaking from the liberal majority, taking votes against trans rights, criminal justice reform, and even the much-touted paid sick leave bill in 2016 and minimum wage increase in 2014. Beidle is being challenged from the left by Anne Arundel County Councilor Sarah Lacey. Not that far from the left, of course—Lacey still endorsed Peter Franchot for governor—but enough that the battle is clearly ideological. Lacey has been particularly good on the issue of criminal justice reform, the issue on which Beidle has the most checkered past. What initially looked like a promising contest never really developed, and Beidle looks like a strong favorite at this point—she's raised far more money and has the support of every union (including the FOP, naturally). Still, Lacey is running a capable campaign and an upset is just as much in the cards as a total blowout is.
SD-34 (Harford County Shore & Bel Air, far northeast Baltimore exurbs)
Mary-Dulany James vs. Mary Ann Lisanti
This isn’t normally a district we would include here—despite voting for Biden by 9%, this district has a Republican incumbent and was largely unchanged in redistricting. However, one of the Democrats running here is so awful that we have to make an exception.
Mary Ann Lisanti has been one of the most conservative Democrats in the state legislature since winning one of HD-34A’s two seats in 2014. Maryland Democrats still have a fair number of conservative dinosaurs hanging around, but only Lisanti is truly a pariah among her fellow Democrats in Annapolis, and there’s a very good reason for that. In 2019, the Washington Post reported that Lisanti used the n-word in a conversation with her colleagues, referring to a district in predominantly Black Prince George’s County as a “[n-word] district.” Her colleagues, rightly horrified, acted swiftly; the legislature voted unanimously to censure her, the state House speaker stripped her of her subcommittee chairmanship, and the Maryland Legislative Black Caucus demanded her resignation, a call which was quickly echoed by the Maryland Democratic Party, the Maryland Republican Party, the Prince George’s County Executive, the Harford County Democratic Executive Committee, and many, many others. But Lisanti refused to resign—and she’s not even retiring. She’s seeking a promotion now that Republican state Sen. Robert Cassilly is leaving behind SD-34 to run for Harford County Executive. Former Del. Mary-Dulany James, Lisanti’s predecessor in HD-34A, is pretty moderate; it’s unlikely she’d vote much differently from Lisanti, but Lisanti needs to lose regardless.
SD-39 (Germantown area, DC suburbs)
Nancy King (i) vs. Adam Cunningham
There's a lot going on in the 39th district today, and it's all covered in our preview for the House of Delegates contests below. The gist is that the left made important inroads here in 2018, and two-decade statehouse veteran Sen. Nancy King is trying to purge the left from her beloved district. That’s a good reason to make a protest vote, and fortunately there’s a challenger who wants those. Adam Cunningham is running on a great platform, but acknowledges he’s probably not headed to the statehouse, saying on his website that his “main goal throughout this campaign is to raise awareness of the community-based solutions we can have towards solving these problems, outside the influence of the State or the government at large”.
SD-47 (Inner PG County suburbs of DC, Langley Park to Landover)
Malcolm Augustine (i) vs. Rocio Treminio-Lopez
The Hispanic population of PG County is growing, and much of it is contained in District 47, which is now about equally Black and Hispanic by population, though an extreme difference in citizenship rates means that Black eligible voters outnumber Hispanic eligible voters roughly 3:1. This district used to have a Hispanic senator, but after he left to run for a different office in 2018, what initially looked like an interesting contest eventually fizzled out as Hispanic leaders gave up and handed the seat to Rushern Baker protegé Malcolm Augustine. Brentwood (pop. 4,000) Mayor Rocio Treminio-Lopez, who is committed to the cause of Hispanic representation in Maryland, is focusing heavily on Hispanic voters in her campaign. While it’s easily possible to do better than a machine type like Augustine, Treminio-Lopez hasn’t positioned herself to his left, and, if her Peter Franchot endorsement is any sign, may even be to his right.
HD-3 (Frederick)
Top 3
Ken Kerr (i) vs. Josh Bokee vs. Kris Fair vs. Billy Reid vs. Karen Simpson vs. Stephen Slater vs. Tarolyn Thrasher
Two seats in the House of Delegates are up for grabs in the growing Democratic city of Frederick, which goes a long way towards explaining the massive crowd running here. It’s even conceivable that incumbent Ken Kerr loses, though highly unlikely. Kerr was elected in 2018 from the old HD-3B, which covered only ⅓ of the old SD-03, most of which isn’t even in the district anymore. However, with this many candidates running, the only incumbent is nearly guaranteed one of the top 2 slots. Kris Fair, a top staffer to Karen Lewis Young, is a mild favorite for one of the other slots—he, Kerr, and Lewis Young make up an unofficial slate, of which he’s clearly the most progressive.
As for the final slot, it’s anybody’s game. Labor is scattered here: the AFL-CIO, instead of backing Fair, jumped for two previous candidates, lawyer Stephen Slater who ran for HD-3B in 2014 and MeToo advocate Karen Simpson, who ran for House in 2018…halfway across the state. You can’t count out Josh Bokee, who was on the Frederick Board of Alderman 2013-2017, and is married to the woman who took his place, but his platform is oddly focused on municipal and transportation issues, which makes you wonder why he’s running for this level of government (and it’s not even the good kind of transportation focus, the dude loves highway expansions). Tarolyn Thrasher is involved in many local nonprofits and the Frederick NAACP, and seems more progressive than many of the other candidates, but her day job is at the Baltimore PD. Instead of any of them, progressives are hoping to get former HIV researcher Bill Reid into the third slot. Reid is a bit of an oddball—a Joe Biden DNC delegate who is also heavily involved with his local Progressive MD chapter—but nobody else in the race seems better.
HD-9A (Western Howard and Montgomery County, DC-Baltimore sprawl mix)
Top 2
Steven Bolen vs. Chao Wu vs. Natalie Ziegler
While redistricting actually made the legislative maps slightly more friendly to Republicans overall, HD-9A is the one clear-cut case of them getting absolutely fucked. The non-Howard County portion of this district moved from red Carroll County to blue Montgomery, and in doing so created a Biden+21 district held by two Republicans. One of them is running for reelection, but we feel confident that she doesn’t have a prayer.
The resulting two open Democratic seats are being contested by three strong candidates. No one needs to win, they just need to avoid coming in last. The candidate with the greatest chance of falling behind is Chao Wu. Natalie Ziegler and Steve Bolen, the Democratic nominees for this seat in 2018, have support from labor and local elected officials, as well as plain old name recognition, and Wu, though a member of the Howard County Board of Education, has run a relatively quiet campaign.
HD-10 (Western Baltimore County)
Top 3
Adrienne Jones (i) vs. Ruben Amaya vs. Korey Johnson vs. N. Scott Phillips vs. Jennifer White
With her two fellow delegates running for Senate, House Speaker Adrienne Jones now has a rare opportunity to potentially pick new seatmates and lead a new slate, setting herself up for even political power. She’s picked N. Scott Phillips and Jennifer A. White, both of whom appear to be generic business people who do generic business things with their days. It’s the first real test of her political pull after becoming speaker in an elongated caucus negotiation that chose her as a compromise candidate, more because she had few enemies than because she had many allies. Should she show weakness here it could seriously endanger her second speakership term. The most obvious way she could show weakness comes from Ruben Amaya, a former president of the Baltimore County Student Councils and a member of the Baltimore County Democratic State Central Committee, who teachers unions and grassroots progressives are very excited about. Some progressives also like immigration attorney Korey Johnson, although she’s more of a long shot.
HD-11B (North Baltimore suburbs, Pikesville and Towson)
Top 2
Lisa Belcastro (i) vs. Jon S. Cardin (i) vs. Dana Stein (i)
Welcome to the Thunderdome. After this previous 3-member district was subdivided, all 3 incumbents decided to run in this 2-member district, which means someone's not going to be returning next year. Of the three on that list, if Jon S. Cardin stuck out to you, it’s probably that last name. He got it from his dad, the US Senator. You’d think he’d be cruising to reelection while recently appointed Lisa Belcastro floundered, but that’s not how things have gone. There’s no single “establishment” choice here—District 11’s Senator, Shelly Hettleman, has stayed out of this race, and, incredibly, labor is backing Belcastro and Stein instead of Cardin. Conventional wisdom is that Belcastro is still the underdog here, but you never know if voters want new blood over a dynasty case, especially when that new blood is a lesbian special education teacher with a progressive policy outlook, and the dynasty case doesn’t have much to show for his two decades in politics. Longtime House leader Dana Stein is considered pretty safe here.
HD-12B (Southern Baltimore suburbs)
Top 1
Jeff Garcia vs. Dan McGinty vs. Gary Simmons
This election has been kind of forgotten about during a season of intense primaries, probably because it's a small district way out in the suburbs. The candidates are insurance agent and Chamber of Commerce member Dan McGinty and former Special Police Officer Gary Simmons, and good government reformer-type Jeff Garcia.
HD-13 (North Laurel and Columbia, DC-Baltimore suburb mix)
Top 3
Vanessa Atterbeary (i) vs. Jen Terrasa (i) vs. Amy Brooks vs. Pam Lanman Guzzone vs. Becca Niburg
As with many other multi-member districts, what is technically a 5 way contest for 3 spots is really a 3 way contest for 1. Teacher Amy Brooks is the most progressive of the three, running on a platform that includes single payer healthcare, a Green New Deal, and raising the minimum wage further. Lawyer Becca Niburg bills herself as a progressive as well, but we have doubts. She's light on policy details and heavy on talking up her experience as president of an HOA and spending over a decade working for DHS, always a contender for the most evil federal government agency. At least she's representing immigrants in private practice now. Side note: it's always weird when candidates copy and paste their resume onto their website—we do not understand the prevalence of that choice. Finally, there's nonprofit board member Pam Lanman Guzzone, the most moderate of the three. Lanman Guzzone finds herself in an awkward position as the ex-wife of district 13's state senator Guy Guzzone. While spousal duos aren't unheard of in a district delegation (the Youngs have one right now in SD-03/HD-03A), ex-spousal duos are. Though the split wasn't acrimonious by anyone's account, Guy doesn't appear to have pulled any strings to bring Pamela to Annapolis with him. All the big names are staying out here, which adds a real degree of uncertainty to this contest.
HD-15 (Northwestern Montgomery County, Potomac to Clarksburg)
Top 3
David Fraser-Hidalgo (i) vs. Linda Foley (i) vs. Lily Qi (i) vs. Saqib Ali
While this district technically has three incumbents, Linda Foley was only appointed in December of last year, so the primary is functioning more like an open seat with two candidates. Foley was honestly not a bad choice for the vacancy—as the former president of the Newspaper Guild of America (now The NewsGuild), Foley was a labor leader in her own right (albeit at a time when the union was more of a sleepy professional guild), not just a forgettable party hack. The more likely reason she got the job was being president of the Montgomery County Democratic Party at the time. In other words, she is the establishment here. Her opponent is Saqib Ali, who was elected to a single term in the House of Delegates in 2006, after which he challenged state Sen. Nancy King for reelection, and lost by only 3%. Ali was one of the most progressive delegates during his time in the body, but it’s been over a decade, and he represented a district with minimal overlap with his old district. It was going to be a heavy lift for him to return even before the allegation from his ex-wife of spousal abuse came out in June.
HD-22 (DC suburbs, Hyattsville to Greenbelt)
Top 3
Anne Healey (i) vs. Alonzo Washington (i) vs. Nicole Williams (i) vs. Chiquita Jackson vs. Ashanti Martinez vs. Patrick Paschall
Anne Healey is a white incumbent in a majority-Black district—already a difficult electoral task, and why she had uncomfortably close reelections in 2018 and 2014. But this woman is an absolute dinosaur—she’s been anti-abortion ever since she was first elected in 1990, and she’s refusing to give that up, even after the ground under her feet has shifted immensely on that issue. Pro-Choice Maryland has finally decided they need to try and take her out. They’ve endorsed CASA in Action researcher Ashanti Martinez, who also has many progressive groups supporting him, and even some labor unions. However, Martinez is not the only pro-choice Democrat running. Former Hyattsville Council Member Patrick Paschall and activist Chiquita Jackson are both in the mix, and could split the vote.
HD-23 (Outer ring of PG County/DC suburbs)
Top 3
Marvin Holmes, Jr. (i) vs. Adriano Boafo vs. Jocelyn Collins vs. Remi Duyile vs. Keenon James vs. Januari McKay vs. Monica Roebuck vs. Kym Taylor
This election involves a mess of conflicting loyalties. The simple version is that the central slate to watch is The Twenty-Third District Team Slate, originally formed in 2011, and now functionally an arm of former state Sen. Douglas J.J. Peters. It’s supporting incumbent Del. Marvin Holmes Jr., as well as Kym Taylor and Jocelyn Collins. Meanwhile, Bowie Mayor Adriano Boafo is attempting to win off-slate with the support of Steny Hoyer, who still has a powerful network in parts of PG County, and outgoing Del. Geraldine Valentino-Smith, who recently lost a committee gavel for supporting Larry Hogan during budget negotiations. It’s a safe assumption that he’s one of the worst candidates running, given his supporters, and that Peter Franchot surrogate Januari McKay winning would be a bad outcome as well, but it’s less clear what to say about banker Remi Duyile, who has the support of State’s Attorney Aisha Braveboy.
HD-24 (Eastern DC suburbs, Suitland to Glenn Dale)
Top 3
Andrea Harrison (i) vs. Jazz Lewis (i) vs. Tiffany Alston vs. Sennieal Crutchfield vs. Richard DeShay Elliott vs. Alexis Solis vs. Christopher Stevenson vs. LaTasha Ward
Tiffany Alston is a former delegate known for two things: pulling her support of gay marraige at the last minute, and getting hauled off by the sate police for getting caught embezzling funds from her campaign after less than two years in office. Despite that, she very nearly managed to return to the House in 2014, and join the Senate in 2018. Now that there’s an open House seat, it’s her best chance to return to Annapolis. Few people seem to actually want her back, though. Unusually for PG County, labor and progressive groups have teamed up to support 1199SEIU employee and former PG County Council staffer Christopher Stevenson instead. A cohort of more overtly left-wing activists, including Mckayla Wilkes and many of her backers, want to elect Richard DeShay Elliott, a who was involved in the campaigns of Bernie Sanders and Jill Carter and is running an openly socialist campaign (albeit one that supports Peter Franchot and Glenn Ivey, somehow.) Former Del. Carolyn Howard, Progressive Maryland, and some unions are backing business consultant LaTasha Ward. Ward nearly made third place in 2018, only narrowly beaten out by then-PG County Councilmember Andrea Harrison, who is now running for reelection, which means—surprise—there may actually be two seats up for grabs: one that’s open, and one with a far-from-secure incumbent. Jazz Lewis is just about the only candidate we’re sure will be heading to Annapolis.
HD-26 (Southern DC suburbs, Hillcrest Heights to Accokeek)
Top 3
Veronica Turner (i) vs. Kriselda Valderrama (i) vs. Antwan Brown vs. Angela R. Jones vs. Andre Nottingham vs. Kendal Wade vs. Jamila Woods
These infinity-way state delegate primaries are going to be the death of us. This one’s especially bad because it doesn’t really look like there are better or worse options here. Financial analyst and previous PG County Council candidate Andre D. Nottingham looks the most likely to fill the third seat, but City Council staffer Angela Jones shouldn’t be counted out, and Kendal Wade is a minister, funeral home director, and self-help author, a combination of three professions that seem to be good at getting elected to things. If he loses this election he should try being a lawyer in his off hours.
HD-27B (Southeastern PG County and a strip of Calvert County)
Top 1
Rachel R. Jones (i) vs. June Jones vs. Jeffrie Long, Jr.
This district is just over half Calvert County and just under half PG County. Owing to the way appointments work in Maryland, that meant that the Calvert County Democratic Executive Committee could get who they wanted in this seat by voting as a bloc. They did that, installing Rachel Jones earlier this year. PG County Democrats weren’t happy with this move, and are supporting Jeffrie Long for the full term. While Calvert may have a slight edge in population, PG is where the Democratic votes are, giving Long an advantage. The PG establishment is pulling out all the stops to win this one, even (allegedly) recruiting a paper candidate with the same last name as the incumbent. Labor is supporting Long here, a tacit admission that they think he’ll be winning. It’s hard not to feel a little worried for Jones, who seems like a decent representative, while Long sells himself as a “fiscal conservative”.
HD-28 (Charles County)
Top 3
Debra Davis (i) vs. Edith Patterson (i) vs. C. T. Wilson (i) vs. Buddy Bowling Jr. vs. Edward Holland
Sometimes cop unions are politically dangerous, and sometimes they back a pair of conservative white guys running low-tech campaigns for a majority-minority district against incumbents no one has any problems with, giving us the opportunity to watch them fail, and laugh at them.
HD-34A (Harford County Shore, Northeast Baltimore suburbs)
Top 2
Steve Johnson (i) vs. Sarahia Benn vs. Andre Johnson
Harford County has a stubborn conservative reputation, but there may be a chance to elect a progressive here for the first time in ages: teacher and environmental advocate Sarahia Benn. Benn ran in 2018 and came only 67 votes away from making it through the primary. It’s hard not to see her as the favorite now, even if Harford County District A Councilmember Andre Johnson has more backing from the Annapolis establishment.
HD-39 (Germantown and nearby, DC suburbs)
Top 3
Gabriel Acevero (i) vs. Lesley Lopez (i) vs. Kirill Reznik (i) vs. Clint Sobratti
Del. Gabe Acevero is one of Metro DC DSA’s success stories, narrowly unseating incumbent Shane Robinson in a crowded 2018 primary. Dels. Kirill Reznik and Lesley Lopez, angry that Acevero isn’t enough of a team player for their liking, are backing a challenger, union organizer and bus driver Clint Sobratti, with the help of state Sen. Nancy King’s Team 39 slate campaign committee. (Reznik and Lopez are both allergic to offering examples of substantive disagreements they’ve had with Acevero, because they don’t have them; Reznik and Lopez, not really centrists, appear to be driven entirely by personal disagreements. Sobratti is even active with the same union Acevero was active in before his election to the legislature.) Their efforts have gotten highly deceptive, including putting out mailers which imply Sobratti is the incumbent and Acevero is the challenger. Infuriatingly, many unions, including the AFL-CIO, have gone along with this. Anything could happen here. All three incumbents could win, the Team 39 slate could sweep Acevero out of office, or—and this would be the funniest outcome by far, so we’re rooting for it—Acevero could hold on while the Team 39 slate’s efforts to get Sobratti over the line succeed anyway, inadvertently felling either Reznik or Lopez. That possibility brings up one of the quirks of multi-member districts: the strategic voting choice here is to vote for Acevero and no one else, because anyone else could be competing for the 3rd spot with him.
HD-40 (Inner West Baltimore)
Top 3
Marlon Amprey (i) vs. Frank Conaway, Jr. (i) vs. Melissa Wells (i) vs. China Terrell vs. Kathy Shulman vs Juan Snell
Maryland Matters seems to think this is a live primary, owing to the weakness of Frank Conaway Jr., a lazy incumbent skating by on the dwindling power of his family name. Maryland Matters usually has their pulse on things, and we wouldn’t be sorry to see the moderate Conway family finally on the outs, but we honestly just don’t see it this year. All of his challengers are some degree of fine (except conservative Juan Snell) but none really stand out, and without people coalescing behind someone in particular, Conaway probably coasts.
HD-41 (West Baltimore)
Top 3
Dalya Attar (i) vs. Tony Bridges (i) vs. Sandy Rosenberg (i) vs. Bilal Ali vs. Chris Ervin
Dalya Attar is one of the six Democrats who voted against strengthening abortion protections, and is accordingly being targeted by Pro-Choice Maryland. This should be cause to try and bounce her, but, disappointingly, state Sen. Jill Carter, normally a great progressive, included her on her slate this year. Carter doesn’t sound particularly invested in reelecting Attar, though. Her defense for including Attar as a slatemate was “Look, I’m in the Senate. She’s in the House. I didn’t know about this.” Running against her are trucking company owner Chris Ervin, who doesn’t seem to stand much of a chance, and former Delegate Bilal Ali, who was appointed in 2017 and, embarrassingly, came in 5th when trying to defend his seat the next year. Second place was then-challenger Dalya Attar. Unfortunately, he has little institutional backing. For instance, even though the AFL-CIO refused to support Attar, they simply opted not to make an endorsement rather than going with Ali.
HD-43A (North Baltimore)
Top 2
Regina Boyce (i) vs. Reginald Benbow vs. Elizabeth Embry vs. Logan Endow
Elizabeth Embry, who is best known for running for mayor in 2016 as a kind of softly urbanist liberal good government type, but only got 11% of the vote, is the favorite for this open seat. She’s endorsed by just about everyone, including incumbent Regina Boyce. Well, almost everyone. The state senator for district 43, Mary Washington, endorsed Logan Endow, a nearly successful City Council candidate in 2020, A few progressive groups, including Progressive MD and SEIU1199, have also endorsed him. Reginald Benbow is running a perfectly good campaign painting himself as a grassroots candidate, but he has a tough job with Embry the consensus pick and Endow the progressive.
HD-45 (Northeast Baltimore)
Top 3
Chanel Branch (i) vs. Stephanie Smith (i) vs. Jackie Addison vs. Caylin Young
The 45th is the site of an ugly internecine battle. On the surface, it’s a fight between the district’s senator Cory McCray and senior Del. Stephanie Smith, but at the root it’s a fight between young, progressive mayor Brandon Scott and the city’s old guard. In 2018, McCray, a longtime Scott ally, primaried out the incumbent in this district. Now McCray is on the warpath again. Instead of putting either incumbent on his slate, he’s chosen Jackie Addison and Caylin Young. Addison, a top staffer to Scott, has the more the more professional of the two campaigns, and even though the slatemates will likely finish close together, minor differences will be important if they go 2-3. Neither incumbent can rest easily here: Smith is in her first term after a close primary, and Chanel Branch is appointed, albeit appointed to replace her father, a mainstay of Baltimore politics. Neither are worth missing if they lose (but Branch is definitely the worse of the two.)
HD-46 (South Baltimore)
Top 3
Luke Clippinger (i) vs. Robbyn Lewis (i) vs. Vince Andrews vs. Sean Burns vs. Augusta Yeager Christensen vs. Mark Edelson
HD-46 is the domain of state Senate President Bill Ferguson, who is backing both incumbents, but no non-incumbents. Lawyer Mark Edelson is the fundraising-and-endorsements favorite for the final spot, but there are plenty of strong candidates, and it would be foolish to just assume he’ll win. Unfortunately, all the alternatives seem like political climbers with no real ideological or even factional loyalty, making it hard to get a read on this race.
HD-47B (Langley Park and Adelphi, inner DC suburbs)
Top 1
Marlin Jenkins vs. Jorge Sactic vs. Deni Taveras
This district is split up at the House level to give Hispanic voters an opportunity seat, but even with that advantage, citizenship rates in this part of the state are so low that a 68% Hispanic district by overall population is only 35% by the adult citizen population. This has the effect of creating small electorates, as in fewer than 2,000 voters in all likelihood. As it was in 2018, this race is a seen a contest between Black and Hispanic political forces in the area. Marlin Jenkins, the top aide for outgoing Del. Wanika Fisher, and term-limited County Councilmember Deni Taveras are the two top contenders here, though with such a small voter pool, results are unpredictable, and local businessman Jorge Sactic shouldn’t be ignored.
Baltimore City State’s Attorney
Marilyn Mosby (i) vs. Ivan Bates vs. Thiru Vignarajah
This contest has been nothing but annoying. It all starts with Marilyn Mosby, the most annoying kind of politician: one who sucks but all their loudest haters are always focused on insane reactionary grievances instead of their actual problems. Marylin Mosby is corrupt, power mad, part of a conservative political faction, and worse. Despite all that, most of the complaints you’d have heard about her prior to last year revolved around the one good thing she did: charging a few cops with the murder of Freddie Gray. In 2018 that made her an obvious but not easy choice for reelection against Ivan Bates, who was running a little to her right, and Thiru Vignarajah, who was running a lot to her right.
And then this year she got slapped with federal charges, ranging from falsifying a loan application to lying about it. To be clear, we’re 100% sure she did it. What we’re not 100% sure is if that’s worth not reelecting her over. There’s a certain cynical perspective on this race you could take, that she’s going to be in prison soon anyway and it’s better to let the next governor appoint someone for the remainder of her term, giving a criminal justice reformer a better chance next election against an appointed incumbent, as opposed to giving the legitimacy of a win to one of her opponents this year…Ivan Bates and Thiru Vignarajah. Again.
Honestly, if her only opponent were Larry Hogan-endorsed, staff-abusing, hyper-carceral Thiru Vignarajah, we might be in favor of that outcome. But Ivan Bates is not nearly as bad as Vignarajah. Just as importantly, keeping Mosby around in the meantime is looking like a worse and worse idea as Mosby’s gotten desperate to get reelected, making displays of being tough on crime that are toying with real peoples’ lives. Mosby may be desperate, but that doesn't mean her goose is cooked. She’s in a much worse position than in 2018, but she still won that year with 49% of the vote to Bates’s 28% and Vignarajah’s 23%. She could do considerably worse and still win.
Baltimore City Sheriff
John Anderson (i) vs. Sam Cogen
John Anderson has been sheriff since the 80s, and he acts like it. Sure, him refusing to use a computer is funny even if it’s obviously unacceptable, but much worse is the heartless way he runs his office, including an eviction process where he refuses to tell tenants when the sheriff’s office is coming, but will tell landlords. These are two of the biggest complaints his opponent, deputy Sam Cogen, is leveling against him. Though Anderson only won reelection 61% to 39% last cycle, Cogen’s campaign looked like it was floundering until 10 prominent Baltimore city officials endorsed him a couple weeks ago.
Baltimore County State’s Attorney
Scott Shellenberger (i) vs. Robbie Leonard
Unlike the horrible mess in the city of Baltimore we’d simply like to stop thinking about, the State’s Attorney race for the surrounding suburban county has a much sharper, cleaner narrative. The incumbent is named Scott Shellenberger. He is bad. The challenger is named Robbie Leonard. He is good.
Shellenberger, who was first elected in 2006, has been a tough-on-crime DA, still fighting the war on drugs, and fighting to sentence children to life without parole (the state eventually banned the practice, over his objections). Two crimes that Shellenberger isn’t as gung-ho about bringing charges for? Sexual assault and police abuse. Shellenberger has also taken to attending Republican Party events in recent years. Robbie Leonard, a former public defender who is running on more mainstream reform DA planks like prosecuting police crimes and not seeking jail time for drug use, is running strong, thanks to a shifting political environment—Shellenberger is a holdover from the days when Baltimore County was swingy, which it hasn’t been for at least a decade now—as well as ads from George Soros’s Justice & Public Safety PAC.
Montgomery County Executive
Marc Elrich (i) vs. David Blair vs. Peter James vs. Hans Riemer
Marc Elrich is an awkward combination of everything good and bad about Montgomery County's politics. He’s progressive on many issues, friendly with labor, willing to work with the left—even swinging a DSA endorsement in 2018—and can work the levers of county government. He also has terminal suburbanite brain. Back when he was first running for County Executive in 2018, he spoke in favor of building suburban sprawl all the way up to Frederick County, as opposed to letting Montgomery County get denser. He tried to keep the Council from pushing for housing development targets, raised concerns over parking to argue against weakening single family zoning, that sort of thing. There’s room for improvement; there’s a reason he didn’t get that DSA endorsement again.
Housing has been the main issue that at-large County Councilmember Hans Riemer has wielded against Elrich. Riemer is a self-identified YIMBY, whose plans are more of the “duplexes and social housing” variety than the “bulldoze tenant protection” variety that’s often associated with YIMBY groups. He makes good points about some other shortcomings of Elrich, including his opposition to the county’s employee vaccine mandate. It’s possible to imagine Riemer, despite lacking the leftist grounding of Elrich, being better on the issues where the County Executive has room to maneuver, even if he isn’t as strong as Elrich on the ones the Executive has less room. There could be an illuminating discussion to be had about the functioning of municipal government.
Unfortunately, Riemer is probably the spoiler candidate, not Elrich’s main opponent. That would be rich guy David Blair, who Elrich only beat by 77 votes in 2018. Unlike Riemer, David Blair is all those negative stereotypes you can conjure of “pro-growth” politicians who like development specifically because it makes developers rich. A recent poll from Data for Progress found Elrich and Blair tied at 34% apiece, while Riemer was far behind at 20%. Blair is maybe recommendable for a single-issue upzoning voter, but anyone else should know that in totality he’d be moving county government to the right. While Elrich has the advantage of incumbency and union support, the reality is a Blair win may very well come to pass.
Montgomery County State’s Attorney
John McCarthy (i) vs. Tom DeGonia vs. Bernice Mireku-North vs. Perry Paylor
John McCarthy: yet another Maryland State’s Attorney who’s been around since the 2000s, and long overstayed his welcome (seriously, how did only Marylin Mosby get real opposition in 2018?). Unlike Shellenberger or Mosby, McCarthy has few glaring flaws or controversies that make an obvious case to voters that he needs to be replaced. Indeed, McCarthy has made a show of trying to change with the times and instituted needed steps such as not seeking cash bail for misdemeanors. However, there’s still room for improvement. Perry Paylor isn’t what would normally be called a progressive DA, but he’s pledged to implement more diversion programs, and to create a conviction integrity unit. Biggest of all, he wants to end cash bail entirely. Progressive groups, including the Working Families Party, support his bid, as do some local elected officials. Bernice Mireku-North is promising similar progressive reforms, but is seen as the less likely of the two progressive challengers to win. Tom DeGonia, who is supported by the FOP, is hopefully going to do quite poorly.