6/7 Primary Preview I
Non-California edition
Today is such a phenomenal pile-up of primaries - California, Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota, and Mississippi (even that state is just Congress and there’s nothing to cover) - that we made the decision to split California into its own issue. Expect that in a few hours.
Iowa
SD-17
Izaah Knox vs. Grace Van Cleave
This downtown Des Moines district is a contest between two candidates with pretty similar platforms and ideas about using the office. They’re both progressive and both going to be limited by the permanent (or at least generational) Republican majorities in the state. One clear difference is that Knox has the support of the Des Moines progressive infrastructure, from the AFL-CIO to state Rep. Ako Adbul-Samad. On top of that, SD-17 is the only district in the state that's close to majority-minority, and while Izaah Knox would be the only Black member of the Iowa Senate, Grace Van Cleave wouldn’t be breaking that barrier.
SD-37
Molly Donahue vs. Austin Frerick
State Rep. Molly Donahue really should be favored in a state Senate primary over a policy staffer. At least that’s how things usually go. And yet, Austin Frerick, who works in agricultural antitrust policy, has seriously outraised Donahue. He’s pitched himself as younger, more progressive, and more outspoken voice against Republicans in the state than Donahue, who flipped a suburban Cedar Rapids district in 2018, and still acts like a swing district rep. His campaign even published an internal poll showing him up 53% to 41% in the primary.
SD-39
Liz Bennett vs. Joseph Zahorik
This is a fun one. State Rep. Liz Bennett, normally a progressive, missed a vote last year. While not normally a big deal - it was just an amendment - that vote happened to be on stripping anti-union language out of a major bill. And it failed. By one vote. Hers. Ironworkers Local 89 Union President Joseph Zahorik claims his run for this seat isn’t in response to that vote, but it’s not hard to figure out why organized labor wants him.
HD-30
Eddie Mauro vs. Megan Srinivas
Fourth time’s the charm? Eddie Mauro lost primaries for state house, Congress, and US Senate in the last three cycles. None of them were successful, but he’s built up enough good will to have establishment backing in this race. Dr. Megan Srinivas was on the Iowa Board of Education, and the Biden campaign’s COVID taskforce. She’s been endorsed by Run for Something, and some local politicians. There’s also a chance she actually wants this job and may stay put, while Mauro clearly just likes running for things. This race has gotten intensely negative, with the Mauro campaign posting Srinivas’s personal details and going to her home to prove she didn’t live in the city.
HD-36
Austin Baeth vs. Jaylen Cavil vs. Gabriel De LaCerda vs. Chris Disbro vs. Shannon Henson vs. Jack Porter
Iowa has a unique law saying that if no candidate reaches 35% of the vote in a primary, all the candidates then go to a convention to hash out the nomination. Looking at this candidate list, you can see why this race probably won’t be decided today. The progressive in this race is Jaylen Cavil, an organizer with the Des Moines Black Liberation Movement. The other candidates are…too numerous to mention.
HD-90
Andrew Dunn vs. Christine Wolfe vs. Adam Zabner
Local progressives are excited about student Andrew Dunn, who has the endorsements of Sunrise, Iowa Democratic Party Progressive Caucus, and the AFL-CIO. His main opponent Adam Zabner, doesn’t appear centrist on policy, but he lists his political experience as working for the Buttigieg campaign and arch-moderate Heidi Heitkamp’s One Country Project, a group with extensive ties to anti-Medicare for All efforts.
Montana
SD-50
Tom Steenberg (i) vs. Andrea Olsen
There’s only one Senate primary happening in the state, and unfortunately it’s not much of a primary. Tom Steenberg, an ex-state rep, who was appointed to the office a few months ago, and Andrea Olsen, a current state rep, are similar in policy and tone, and there’s little indication they’d be all that different in office.
HD-100
Dave Severson vs. Zooey Zephyr
Zooey Zephyr would be the first out transgender legislator in Montana history, and her youth and progressive attitude would fit the college town of Missoula well. Ex-union rep. Dave Severson would also be a decent choice, but there’s a reason Zephyr has excited so many locals in politics while Severson is running on themes of experience.
New Jersey
NJ-01
Donald Norcross (i) vs. Mario De Santis
Donald Norcross is all but certain to win renomination against progressive Mario De Santis; the margin is what’s worth watching. New Jersey’s unique primary ballot design (called “the county line” or “the line” for short) makes most primaries formalities and rigs things for the candidates preferred by the local party machines, but with the constitutionality of that ballot design suddenly at risk in federal court, a weak performance by Norcross (whose brother George runs the legendary, and generally conservative, South Jersey Democratic machine) could make him an inviting target if the line is ultimately struck down.
NJ-08
Rob Menendez Jr. vs. David Ocampo Grajales vs. Ane Roseborough-Eberhard
Rob Menendez Jr., a member of the board of the infamously corrupt Port Authority of New York and New Jersey and the son of infamously corrupt U.S. Sen. Bob Menendez, has the line and therefore will win the seat in Congress once held by his father. Rep. Albio Sires is retiring from Congress, though he recently announced that he would attempt to get back his old job as mayor of the small city of West New York, which is so weird for a congressman to do that we can’t not mention it. Menendez Jr.’s margin is very much worth watching, however, because NJ-08 is racially diverse, urban, young, and left-leaning. Without the line, NJ-08 is an ideal target for a Squad-style candidate, and Menendez Jr. is a comical nepotism case who already reeked of corruption before getting elected to anything. If progressive activist David Ocampo Grajales and schoolteacher Ane Roseborough-Eberhard can put a dent in Menendez Jr.’s aura of inevitability, it would confirm that Menendez Jr. should be the target for national progressive groups looking to get involved in New Jersey in the event the line is struck down.
NJ-10
Donald Payne Jr. (i) vs. Imani Oakley vs. Akil Khalfani
Like Donald Norcross and Rob Menendez Jr., Donald Payne Jr. has the line and is an overwhelming favorite. Unlike them, he hasn’t coasted through an easy primary campaign. Progressive activist Imani Oakley has raised formidable sums of money and run a vigorous campaign; one need only look at the sudden uptick in Payne Jr.’s fundraising efforts and campaign events to tell that Oakley is keeping Payne Jr. on his toes. Additionally, though Payne Jr. only succeeded his father, the late Rep. Donald Payne, in 2013, Payne Jr. is already 63 years old. House Democrats tend to stick around well into their seventies or eighties, but some do buck the trend and retire at a normal age, so it’s not out of the question that Payne Jr.’s seat could open up relatively soon.
New Mexico
Attorney General
Brian S. Colón vs. Raul Torrez
As we said when Raul Torrez first entered the race
Torrez was the first DA who George Soros ever funded, and he should be considered more of a test run, rather than the Krasner-style reformists Soros is better known for funding. Torrez is a far cry from those. He’s proud of some preliminary efforts he’s made to take on bad cops, sure, but otherwise he’s very much a normal prosecutor, and to the extent he's gotten involved in legislation, it's been to push for greater criminalization. Brian Colón is also no progressive, and in fact he recently stepped in to prevent teachers from getting COVID bonuses, an act of remarkable dickery that suggests he also wouldn't be inclined to do much good with the AG office. Like Torrez, he is leaning into "tough-on-crime" messaging, and his website greets visitors with a picture of Colón standing by police officers above a promise to "combat...violent predators."
And that’s still basically the state of play here. Neither candidate offers much in the way of criminal justice reform, though Torrez, in his few years as DA, has built up a longer record opposed to it. Labor and establishment figures are split in this race, though more are leaning towards Brian Colón, with Torrez’s biggest endorser being US Senator Martin Heinrich. This race has had only one poll so far, which found Torrez up 34% to 28% over Colón, a lead made up of young, working class, a non-white voters.
Treasurer
Heather Benavidez vs. Laura Montoya
Laura Montoya has shown up here before. She was one of the several elected officials who jumped into the open NM-03 field, only to lose terribly. And she deserved to, running a fairly moderate campaign after a career full of ethics violations and a domestic battery charge (which was later dropped). While Montoya has many friends among elected officials, progressives like State Sen. Jerry Ortiz y Pino seem to prefer Heather Benavidez, the chosen successor of the incumbent, Tim Eichenberg
Auditor
Joseph Maestas vs. Zackary Quintero
The AG race has two bad choices, the Treasurer’s race has one bad choice and one basically fine choice, and the Auditor race evens that out with two basically fine choices. Joseph Maestas, a liberal up-and-comer from the Bush years, was elected to the Public Regulation Commission after a failed bid for Santa Fe Mayor, while Zackary Quintero is the president of the Young Democrats of New Mexico. A surprising amount of this race has been about unions in the state’s support of Quintero, something Maestas claims is retribution for the PRC rejecting a state utility merger.
HD-12
Art De La Cruz (i) Melissa Armijo vs. Nicole Olonovich
Art De La Cruz, a former Bernalillo County Commissioner, has served in the state House two times, and been elected to it zero times. First appointed in September 2020 to this district, it was too late to get on the ballot as a Democrat, leading De La Cruz to run a write-in campaign for the general election, which he lost to progressive independent Brittney Aileene Barreras. After she resigned this year to focus on her mental health, he was appointed again, and is hoping to make his second reelection campaign his first win. In doing so, he has the support of labor, unsurprising considering their generally institutional bent in the state. Progressives are hoping for someone better, but their efforts are split. Barreras, as well as the Working Families Party, and several environmentalist groups, are behind Public Education Commissioner Melissa Armijo, while State Sen. Antoinette Sedillo Lopez and a few other local elected officials support nonprofit worker Nicole Olonovich, who has leadership roles in the state party’s Adelante Progressive Caucus and Environmental Justice Caucus.
HD-17
Cynthia Borrego vs. Darrell Deaguero
This election pits Albuquerque City Councilor Cynthia Borrego against Laborers' International Union of North America Local 16 Darrell Deaguero. On the former’s website, at the top of her issues page: “My #1 PRIORITY; fund more police” (bolding and capitalization hers). Well, then. Organized labor supports Deauguero, so he can’t be that bad.
HD-19
Janelle Anyanonu vs. Colton Dean
This district covers the International District of Albuquerque. Not too long ago, it was known as the “War Zone” for rates of violent crime that were among the highest in the state (and country). That’s all to say that, given the national turn back towards tough-on-crime politics, this race was far from guaranteed to be between two progressives. Sometimes things just work out. Janelle Anyanonu, who has the support of labor and most local elected officials has the edge here over EMT driver Colton Dean, but both would be good representatives.
HD-26
Eleanor Chavez vs. Cherise Quezada
It was a huge loss when State Rep. Eleanor Chavez, a former social worker and AFT representative, left the house in 2012 to run for state senate and lost the primary 40-30. Now that her old district is open again (thanks to an unfortunate drunk driving incident from the current incumbent), everyone wants her back. The exception is conservative Albuquerque City Councilor Louie Sanchez, who is hoping to forestall progressive advances in the legislature, and is therefore backing Cherise Quezalda. Quezada at least had the sense not to accept that endorsement.
HD-40
Roger Montoya (i) vs. Joseph Sanchez
Conservative Democrat Joseph Sanchez vacated this seat in 2020 to mount a failed congressional campaign, and he was succeeded by Roger Montoya. Sanchez is back, and the contrast is stark—Sanchez is a social and fiscal conservative friendly to the oil industry, while Montoya is an openly gay progressive who makes no secret of his opposition to fossil fuels (in a state where the fossil fuel industry is particularly powerful and economically important.) Sanchez’s allies have gone into the gutter, sending mailers highlighting Montoya’s sexuality and the fact that Montoya, as a broke college student, appeared in gay pornography. Sanchez deserves to lose.
HD-41
Susan Herrera (i) vs. Marlo Martinez
New Mexico, for decades, has been governed by a handshake agreement from both parties not to get in the way of powerful special interests, especially oil and gas. When progressives ousted a handful of conservative senate incumbents in 2020 and ended the streak of the Democrats’ conservative wing leading the chamber by implicit threat of maintaining their control through Republican votes, it made passing progressive legislation a real possibility, and exposed the party’s fault lines. Nowhere was that fault line deeper than at the desk of House Budget Chair Patricia Lundstrom. After two years of fighting her party’s progressive wing, this powerful member of the old guard sees the speakership within her grasp, wants her critics gone, and is bankrolling moderate challengers to accomplish that. The first of those, numerically, is Joe Sanchez, but that race is interesting enough on its own. Marlo Martinez’s campaign is much less so - rural New Mexico politics can sometimes be very local and poorly documented. We did want to highlight the stone cold response Susan Herra had to finding out Lundstrom was gunning for her: “If you’re going to shoot the moon, you’ve got to have your cards lined up.”
HD-42
Kristina Ortez (i) vs. Florence Miera
Kristina Ortez is the third incumbent being targeted for removal by Lundstrom, which is really the only reason this race warrants mention. Otherwise a life coach and adjunct professor running with nearly no money or discernable platform against an incumbent would be facing some pretty steep odds.
HD-46
Andrea Romero (i) vs. Henry Roybal vs. Ryan Salazar
Here we have a twofer. Not only is Lundstrom putting her weight behind these challengers (both of them), but so is Louie Sanchez, who has endorsed Henry Roybal here. Andrea Romero, then a graduate student, was first elected to the House in 2018 after defeating incumbent Carl Trujillo, who, it had just been revealed, had been sexually harassing a lobbyist. That race did not endear her to New Mexico’s old guard, and that wound is apparently still fresh. As for her opponents, Henry Roybal is a Santa Fe County Commissioner, Ryan Salazar is a procurement specialist at Los Alamos National Laboratories, and neither has attracted much attention outside of grudges against Romero.
HD-70
Ambrose Castellano (i) vs. Anita Gonzales
This race was a near miss in 2020. Moderate Ambrose Castellano defeated progressive Anita Gonzales just 41-40. Gonzales has returned for a rematch, and, unusually, it’s not just progressive groups helping her. New Mexico Organized labor is with a challenger for once. It’s not hard to figure out why - Castellano has not been a friend to the worker; in particular, he voted against the state’s paid sick leave law, a major project of the state’s unions.
South Dakota
Amendment C
Medicaid expansion, which would extend health insurance to thousands of low-income South Dakotans, is going to be on the ballot in November. But it’s also effectively on the ballot today. Medicaid expansion referenda have succeeded in redder states than South Dakota, so South Dakota Republicans are trying an underhanded maneuver to sink the expansion referendum. The Republican state legislature put their own amendment on the ballot which would raise the threshold for many ballot initiatives, including this November’s Medicaid vote; currently, a simple majority is required, but Amendment C would raise the threshold most ballot initiatives must meet to 60% of the vote. And Republicans made sure to put Amendment C on the primary ballot so it could take effect before the Medicaid vote. If Amendment C passes today, the Medicaid referendum in November faces much steeper odds; if Amendment C fails, only a simple majority will be needed in November to provide health insurance for thousands of people. Root for Amendment C to fail, and make sure to vote against it if you’re in South Dakota.
HD-26A
Alexandra Frederick vs. Eric Emery
There’s one contested state legislative election in a safely Democratic district in all of South Dakota—but neither 2018 Secretary of State nominee Alexandra Frederick nor ambulance operator Eric Emery has gotten, well…any news coverage as they seek to represent the Rosebud Sioux Reservation in the state House, and neither candidate’s campaign finance reports shed any light, either.