6/7 California Primary Preview
we feel less than golden about the length of our Golden State primary preview
We are so sorry for this piece being well over 8,000 words. (This is after we trimmed it down significantly.) There’s not much we can do to make California manageable, especially in a redistricting year—there’s just that much up for grabs today. Congressional races come first, then state offices, then county-level and Los Angeles municipal elections; there are dividers between those three groups of races, if you’re interested in a specific race or group of races.
CA-13
Merced, Modesto, northern San Joaquin Valley
Phil Arballo vs. Adam Gray
We’ve been banging on this drum for a while now: This race has some of the highest ideological stakes of any primary this year, and it’s gotten precious little attention. Assemb. Adam Gray leads the “mods”, California’s business-financed Blue Dogs-styled group, and has been endorsed by the actual Blue Dogs. He founded the state’s Problem Solvers Caucus. He’s an oil industry lackey who openly brags about his fights with environmentalists, has the worst environmental record of any Democrat in the state legislature, and has said he sees himself as a non-partisan individual because the Democratic Party “isn't really the Democratic Party anymore. They're more the Green Party. They've moved so far to the left, particularly on environmental issues.”
This man will be an unmitigated disaster in Congress. If not another Henry Cuellar, then at least another Jim Costa. And there’s only one man standing in his way: Phil Arballo. Arballo is no leftist, just a partisan Democrat who hates Gray’s conservatism with a passion. Surprisingly enough, Arballo has nearly managed to keep pace with Gray in spending, which he has used to fund a primarily negative campaign. Gray is a soft target with a lot of weak points: oil money, lobbyist trips, an op-ed he wrote about how Democrats were being too hard on Trump. Gray has stayed positive is his messaging, which, combined with how Arballo's running his campaign, suggests polling has Gray in an easy lead. But turnout is low in the rural Central Valley, and primary turnout is even lower. It makes for an unpredictable electorate.
Gray has the edge here. He already represents half the district, and has a lot of institutional support behind him in the Valley. He also does have a perceptible edge in spending when you include the over $200,000 spent by CA Realtors on his behalf. Still, Arballo has made a strong case against Gray (if not for himself) and does have the advantage of being the only Hispanic Democrat in this race. Some of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus’s allied PACs have been spending on Arballo’s behalf, likely eager to elect a caucus member in a very Hispanic district where it would honestly be a bit weird to nominate a non-Hispanic white guy. Given that there are two Democrats and three Republicans, a Gray-Arballo runoff is feasible, but unlikely, which is good, since Arballo would get shellacked if that happened.
CA-15
San Mateo County, parts of San Francisco
Emily Beach vs. David Canepa vs. Kevin Mullin
While a Republican theoretically could make the runoff, the much more likely outcome of this South Bay Area primary is whittling down the field from 3 Democrats to 2. Who's going to get the axe? Is it centrist Burlingame City Council member Emily Beach? She's the most likely—a local official with few big allies who has fundraised poorly and polled worse. But last-minute spending from civility-in-politics group With Honor may give her a lifeline. Could it be San Mateo County Supervisor David Canepa? He's somewhat belatedly branded himself as the progressive in the race, and, given the alternatives, is indeed the best option, but has been criticized for clear unfamiliarity on some policy issues. While the campaign has projected confidence about making the runoff, their recent spending suggests otherwise. Might Assemblymember Kevin Mullin miss the runoff? Probably not, he's the establishment favorite and has been in the driver's seat this whole campaign. Still, overconfidence has felled many a politician, and Mullin, who barely limped into the Assembly with a quarter of the vote last cycle, would ideally be articulating an argument for himself beyond just being the establishment's choice.
CA-16
Silicon Valley
Anna Eshoo (i) vs. Rishi Kumar vs. Ajwang Rading vs. Greg Tanaka
Silicon Valley produces weird politicians, and thankfully they're all contained to one district this year. Anna Eshoo, the definition of a forgettable backbencher, should theoretically be a good target for a primary challenge, but this is not the crew to do it. Saratoga City Council member Rishi Kumar ran against her in 2020 and even made the runoff, but lost it badly amidst a slew of controversies ranging from the funny (opt-out yard sign deliveries) to the troubling (support for India's far-right RSS). Ajwang Rading has been posturing vaguely to Eshoo's left, but as the only non-elected in the race, as well as the candidate who's spent the least, his prospects are slim to nonexistent. It's not a huge loss, given that he may also be the most doggedly pro-cryptocurrency candidate in the race, which is saying something, given the over $200,000 of outside spending to benefit centrist Palo Alto City Council member Greg Tanaka from pro-crypto mystery PAC DAO for America (DAO is a crypto thing, we promise it's more boring than it sounds).
CA-21
Fresno, Visalia
Jim Costa (i) vs. Eric Garcia
It's not that we think Eric Garcia has anything approaching a chance here, we just hate Jim Costa enough to care about how he does.
CA-29
Eastern San Fernando Valley
Tony Cárdenas (i) vs. Angelica Dueñas
All of California's primaries have every candidate of every party stuffed into one ballot. In some elections—everything at the county and municipal level, plus the statewide Superintendent of Public Instruction, for some reason—cracking 50% is an automatic win. Otherwise, the top 2 candidates advance to November no matter what, even if there are only two real candidates. In these "beauty pageant" primaries, we're only going to provide a cursory glance at the candidates, out of respect for time (yours and ours).
With that out of the way: Angelica Dueñas, an ex-Green, came within single digits of defeating New Dem Tony Cárdenas in 2020 by running a no-budget, hyperlocal race. This is that, again.
CA-32
Western San Fernando Valley, Bel Air, Malibu
Brad Sherman (i) vs. Shervin Aazami vs. Aarika Rhodes
Brad Sherman: land of contrasts. The insanely hawkish heir apparent to the House Foreign Affairs Committee chairmanship also happens to be fantastic on a lot of important issues you don't hear much about (regulating cryptocurrency, telling inflation hawks to stuff it). It's from each side of the Duality of Brad that his opponents arise. Leftist Shervin Aazami has gone after Sherman's record on foreign policy, while former Yang Ganger Aarika Rhodes spent the campaign slowly morphing into the Bitcoin candidate. Sherman would prefer to face neither opponent, and has spent hundreds of thousands to prop up one of the Republicans for second place.
A quick correction from last week: When we listed the pre-primary campaign financial activity in this district, we pulled from the wrong form for Aarika Rhodes. In actuality, she raised $42,547 between 4/1 and 5/18, spent $88,741, and had $94,143 left over.
CA-34
Downtown Los Angeles, Koreatown
Jimmy Gomez (i) vs. David Kim
Another beauty pageant, like CA-29. The differences are that Jimmy Gomez, unlike Cárdenas, has a relatively progressive record in the House, and David Kim came even closer to beating Gomez in 2020 than Dueñas did to Cárdenas.
CA-37
Culver City, South Central Los Angeles
Sydney Kamlager vs. Daniel Lee vs. Jan Perry vs. Michael Shure
The race to succeed Karen Bass as she departs for city hall is Sydney Kamlager's to lose. Kamlager, who recently ascended from the state Assembly to the state Senate in an anticlimactic special election that seemingly no one bothered to vote in, already represents most of the district. Which parts, and how popular she is in them, are discussions for the runoff; for now it's time to choose her opponent. Kamlager isn't terrible, merely meh, but this district is capable of electing someone better (for instance, Karen Bass). Accordingly, all three of her Democratic opponents are to her left. Daniel Lee, the Vice Mayor of Culver City, is the furthest left. He ran against her in the special and lost 69-13. He may have done better within the borders of CA-37, but when the question is whether or not the losing margin was over 50%, the answer is that it doesn't matter. He's also raised just about no money in this race. Former Los Angeles City Council member Jan Perry has been in political retirement after losing a mayoral election nearly a decade ago. She's not the easiest to figure out, ideologically, but her ties are to an older, more progressive machine of the dense urban core, now on the wane, and it wouldn't be hard to see her cleaning up in the working class eastern portion of the district that's new to Kamlager. Finally, Michael Shure is a YouTuber, and YouTubers just don't win elections, even when they raise six figures.
CA-42
Long Beach, Downey, Southeast Los Angeles County
Cristina Garcia vs. Robert Garcia vs. Nicole López
We'd love to pretend this race isn't happening. You can too, if you want. Just skip down to the next race, no reason to give yourself a headache. Self care, etc. Robert Garcia was a Republican political operative for about a decade until he realized Obama was stomping out the last of the Bush-era Republican sympathies in Long Beach, and he'd need to switch parties if he wanted to have a political career. What a political career he's had indeed—now the mayor, he was able to clear the field in this half-Long Beach district. His main opponent is Assemblymember Cristina Garcia, who may be politically to his left, but given all her controversies (racism, homophobia, potential sexual misconduct—you know, the works) national progressives opted to sit this one out. Robert Garcia has spent obscene amounts of money, aided by Protect Our Future and United Democracy Project (AIPAC), to push a Republican into the second slot, and avoid having to care about the general election. Leftist Nicole López is on the ballot for people who want better than Robert Garcia but can’t bring themselves to vote for Cristina Garcia.
CA-46
Anaheim, Santa Ana
Lou Correa (i) vs. Michael Ortega
Awful Blue Dog Rep. Lou Correa will finish way out in front; that much is clear. Less clear is whether the presence of three Republicans and one independent on the ballot will be enough for the other Democrat, democratic socialist Michael Ortega, to advance to November. Ortega has gotten some smaller organizational endorsements and the local Orange County DSA chapter (and this district is working-class urban and suburban neighborhoods, not the rich suburbs that probably come to mind when you hear “Orange County.”)
CA-50
Coastal San Diego
Scott Peters (i) vs. Kylie Taitano
Scott Peters has been awful his entire career, especially on fiscal issues. While many local Democrats looked the other way, this year he helped kill prescription drug pricing reform, infuriating many local leaders. That, combined with redistricting giving him a more urban and Democratic district, puts him at special risk. His challenger is software engineer Kylie Taitano, who hasn’t raised much money but does have the support of some local Democratic clubs. Peters have spent close to $700,000 trying to block her from reaching the runoff, and it’s anyone’s guess as to whether that’ll work.
California State Controller
Malia Cohen vs. Ron Galperin vs. Steve Glazer vs. Yvonne Yiu
Yes, that’s Steve Glazer, the Bay Area’s own wishes-he-could-be-Republican-and-still-win state Senator running for statewide office, a prospect that should chill any progressive voter to the bone. Under normal circumstances, Yvonne Yiu, mayor of Monterey Park (pop. 60,000), would be the big concern here. She’s an investment banker self-funding to the tune of $5 million. But Glazer is worse than her, and he’s a stronger candidate. Board of Equalization member Malia Cohen and LA City Controller Ron Galperin are the normal Democrats in the race; Cohen is the Bay Area’s candidate, while Galperin is LA’s.
California Insurance Commissioner
Ricardo Lara (i) vs. Marc Levine
Ricardo Lara was elected as a progressive, but has become known for petty ethics scandals. That’s animated the campaign of Assemblymember Marc Levine, who for a Marin County politician, could be much worse. The Democratic establishment has largely been backing Lara out of standard incumbent deference, but Levine has won over enough establishment power players and other assorted noteworthy backers (along with just about every editorial board in the state) that he stands a chance of advancing to a November matchup with Lara.
State Board of Equalization District 2
Michela Alioto-Pier vs. Sally Lieber
Board of Equalization districts are massive, and District 2 covers every county on the coast between the Oregon border and Los Angeles. What does the Board actually do? Unclear at this point. It originally had powerful controls over taxation, but most of that’s been stripped away. Now they primarily hear tax appeals for very specific publicly-owned lands. Exciting stuff. The candidates here are two politicians who haven’t gotten elected to anything in a while, looking for a way to rejuvenate their career. Michela Alioto-Pier, a moderate from the San Francisco Council, badly flamed out running for mayor in 2011. Sally Lieber, a staunch progressive and DSA member from back in the Bush years, was term-limited out of the Assembly in 2008, and failed in two state Senate campaigns this decade. There’s only one Republican running, but this is a very Democratic district, and Lieber, who has the state party endorsement, would have to really run away with it to avoid this contest stretching into November.
State Board of Equalization District 4
Mike Schaefer (i) vs. David Dodson
Mike Schaefer is almost an inspiring story—if one finds it inspiring when perennial candidates win on accident—but he’s a spouse-abusing slumlord. No serious Democrat bothered filing for the Southern California-based BOE seat 4 in 2018, leaving Democrats with former Republican San Diego City Councilman (1965-1971) Mike Schaefer as their candidate—and, much to everyone’s surprise, Schaefer was washed into office by that year’s Democratic wave. Sure, the BOE doesn’t actually do much, but normal guy David Dodson will be an upgrade.
SD-08
Angelique Ashby vs. Rafa Garcia vs. Dave Jones
This isn’t quite a beauty pageant primary, but it’s close. Sacramento Vice Mayor Angelique Ashby and former Assemblymember and Insurance Commissioner Dave Jones are widely expected to face each other in the runoff. There are no Republicans running, and union rep Rafa Garcia’s campaign is severely under-resourced. Jones has always been a strong progressive, while Ashby has less of a record, but there’s a reason the worst PACs in California politics are spending for her.
SD-10
Jim Canova vs. Jamal Khan vs. Raymond Liu vs. Lily Mei vs. Aisha Wahab
Hey, we remember Aisha Wahab! Wahab, a member of the Hayward City Council, was running for Eric Swalwell’s seat in Congress during his vanity campaign for president, and briefly stayed in the race after he dropped that bid and chose reelection instead. She was running a clearly progressive campaign (aside from one bizarre comment about background checks for immigrants, something she hasn’t repeated), a rarity in the outer Bay Area. We were sad to see her drop out even though it was obvious she had little chance against Swalwell. It’s fantastic news not only to see her running for state senate, but to be doing so with the support of outgoing Sen. Bob Wieckowski, labor unions, and the state party. Despite the size of the field, Wahab only has one serious opponent: Fremont (pop. 230,000) Mayor Lily Mei. The race has been expensive. Unions have spent over a million dollars to boost Wahab while developer money is coming in big for Mei. Wahab is seen as leading now, but, even with only one Republican running, this is a very Democratic district and a D-R runoff still isn’t likely. We’ll probably be coming back to this race in 5 months.
SD-20
Daniel Hertzberg vs. Caroline Menjivar vs. Seydi Alejandra Morales
Daniel Hertzberg starts out with a big advantage over the field: his last name. His dad, Bob Hertzberg, is leaving the predecessor to this district this year, and Daniel is setting out to keep the district in family hands. Bob’s pulled a good number of strings for Daniel, and it may be enough to get him elected. He’s certainly lapping the field in the money race, many times over. But many progressives think they can do better, and have turned to nonprofit director Caroline Menjivar. Menjivar did manage to pull a few unions in, even though most support Hertzberg, and surprisingly, she also landed the LA Times endorsement. This district is quite Democratic, and a Hertzberg-Menijvar runoff is looking likely even though there is a Republican running. Attorney Seydi Alejandra Morales is running on a similarly progressive platform, but has struggled to gain traction or raise money.
SD-28
Jamaal A. Gulledge vs. Kamilah Victoria Moore vs. Lola Smallwood-Cuevas vs. Cheryl Turner
This district is open. Again. We just had a special election in the predecessor district last year to replace Holly Mitchell. The winner, by a wide margin, was Assemb. Sydney Kamlager…who lasted a few months before deciding to run for Congress instead of reelection. Now there’s a fresh crop of candidates ready and excited to run that primary all over again. Well, almost fresh. Cheryl Turner is a repeat, trying again after a 5% showing last time, and a nearly as bad result in the Assembly special to replace Kamlager (this part of LA has been doing a lot of voting recently). Much like in that special, the establishment has chosen a candidate, Lola Smallwood-Cuevas, and she is the overwhelming favorite here. Kamilah V. Moore is a 29 year old activist who sits on the state’s task force to develop a plan for reparations (it’s California, everything has to go through 30 stages of study before being remotely considered). Jamaal Gulledge is a human resources manager at UCLA who would be the state’s first gay, Black legislator.
SD-30
Bob Archuleta (i) vs. Henry Bouchot vs. Martha Camacho Rodriguez
Bob Archuleta is a 76-year-old ex-cop who barely made it through a multi-way primary in 2018. He should be vulnerable. Doubly so because there is an outstanding accusation of sexual harassment agaisnt him. And yet, he’s probably getting another term. If anyone’s beating him, it’s Whittier (pop. 87,000) City Councilmember Henry Bouchot, who is ever so slightly to Archuleta’s left.
SD-38
Catherine Blakespear vs. Joe Kerr
Republicans have a candidate here and appear to be actually contesting it, which, look—if they’re winning Biden+16 districts, we’re beyond fucked anyway. The party has more or less settled around Encinitas (pop. 62,000) Mayor Catherine Blakespear, who is in all ways unremarkable as a politician. We could remark on retired fire captain Joe Kerr, but not positively. He sees the district as “fiscally conservative” and positions himself as first, and foremost, “not an extremist”. The implication being, we guess, that Blakespear is? If that’s what he meant, then dear god, this man would faint if ever exposed to the fanatical left-wing rhetoric of Chris Matthews or James Carville. The interview he said that in is titled “The Other Democrat”, in case you want to know what local media thinks of his chances. Kerr has raised 6 figures, has connections to organized labor in Orange County, and did very well in a County Supervisor race last cycle. But he also trailed Blakespear 21% to 11% in the only poll of the race.
AD-06
Kevin McCarty (i) vs. Josh Pane
Josh Pane is a lobbyist running a one-note campaign on the need to lock up drug users and the homeless. Thankfully, it doesn’t look like anyone’s biting.
AD-10
Eric Guerra vs. Stephanie Nguyen vs. Tecoy Porter vs. Ben Thompkins
Eric Guerra is a Sacramento City Councilmember and the state Democratic establishment pick. That’s two strikes against him, but it’s three for a strikeout, and Stephanie Nguyen has struck out. (We didn’t think that was a very good segue either, but there are like 120 elections today, you have to spice it up somehow). Guerra is fine, really. Honestly, maybe a bit less than fine—it is, as a rule, a bad idea to put too much faith in municipal politicians, but overall he seems like he’d be a reliable member of the Democratic caucus. The same cannot be said of Nguyen, an Elk Grove City Councilmember who’s being backed by cop unions, the chamber of commerce, and outgoing Assemb. Jim Cooper. Cooper, who is running for Sheriff now, is ridiculously conservative for a district that blue, probably the worst outside of a rural Central Valley district. Whoever he wants to succeed him is bad news. Local pastor Tecoy Porter is also running, and may soak up enough of the Democratic vote to allow the Republican into the runoff, effectively deciding the race today.
AD-12
Sara Aminzadeh vs. Damon Connolly vs. Steve Schwartz vs. Ida Times-Green
Ah, Marin County. A magical land where the average voter bought their house for $25 in 1962 and will call in the National Guard if they hear anyone use the word “duplex”. County Supervisor Damon Connolly is less bad than he could be, given what he represents, but during the campaign he literally protested the possibility of building housing on the grounds of a shuttered hospital. California Coastal Commissioner Sara Aminzadeh is running a spirited campaign to his left, focusing especially on environmental issues. The expectation has been that the two of them will go on to November, since there’s no Republican running.
AD-20
Jennifer Esteen vs. Shawn Kumagai vs. Liz Ortega
This primary is a goddamn mess. Progressives are incredibly excited about Jennifer Esteen, a Black lesbian nurse and union organizer. Esteen was originally challenging incumbent Bill Quirk, who was kept to a surprisingly small 57-43 victory in 2020 by Alexis Villalobos, also a progressive, queer union organizer, though one who, by her own admission, didn’t have a lot of experience and ran a bare-bones campaign. Then Quirk dropped out of the race, and the problems began. Liz Ortega, the statewide political director of AFSCME Local 3299 (University of California employees) entered the race, and organized labor got behind her instead of Esteen. Additionally, Dublin City Council member Shawn Kumagai entered to take the centrist lane, picked up a bunch of urbanist/YIMBY endorsements, and was showered with money from one of the California-specific PACs that just frankensteins together a bunch of horrible industries (in this case “correctional officers, pharmaceutical industry, peace officers (PORAC), charter schools, hospitals, apartment industry, DaVita, Edison International”. Now it’s a three-way race—actually, make that four-way, there’s a single Republican running who will get about 20% of the vote. Any two of the four candidates here could make the runoff.
AD-21
James Coleman vs. Maurice Goodman vs. Giselle Hale vs. Alison Madden vs. Diane Papan
James Coleman is a kind of candidate you don’t see often. At the age of 21, while still finishing up his last year on a full ride at Harvard, he was elected to the city council in South San Francisco (pop. 66,000) on a democratic socialist platform, becoming (unsurprisingly) the council’s youngest member, as well as its first openly LGBTQ member. Coleman got to work on the city council, helping South San Francisco launch a guaranteed income pilot program for low-income residents. Then Jackie Speier unexpectedly announced her retirement from Congress, and Kevin Mullin left his Assembly seat two years before he was due to be term-limited, providing an unexpected opportunity for Coleman to bring his democratic socialist politics to Sacramento. Establishment Democrats are split between San Mateo Deputy Mayor Diane Papan and Redwood City Mayor Giselle Hale. Papan is the more conservative of the two; Hale has YIMBY groups in her corner, but Coleman was the YIMBY candidate in his city council race two years ago and is very vocally supportive of efforts to build social housing (and housing more generally), so we’re going to chalk that up to YIMBY groups not giving enough swirlies to libertarian tech execs and nonprofit types. Coleman, for his part, has DSA, progressive groups, and a large share of labor unions behind him. Local attorney Alison Madden and community college trustee Maurice Goodman are also running, but likely won’t make the runoff.
The ideal outcome is for Coleman to place first and the race’s lone Republican second, but that’s not likely. The most realistic thing to hope for is a Coleman-Hale runoff; while a Coleman-Papan runoff would still be nice because Coleman advanced, Papan is the worst viable contender, and we don’t want her advancing to November if it can be avoided.
AD-24
Alex Lee (i) vs. Kansen Chu vs. Lan Diep vs. Teresa Keng
It’s not fair to leftist state Assemb. Alex Lee to say that he merely got lucky when he won in 2020, but there were 8 Democrats running, and only 1 Republican. Lee only took 15% of the vote, which was enough to effectively win the race, since it got him the second runoff slot with the Republican. This was never going to be an easy election, since it would require winning a majority of the vote against another Democrat for the first time, but redistricting made it even harder when it pushed the district much further into Alameda County. Now he faces 3 opponents who smell blood in the water. Kansen Chu represented this district for 6 years until he retired in 2020 to run for another office. He lost that race, and has come back to regain his old title. Lan Diep was defeated after a single term on the San Jose City Council in 2020. Teresa Keng, after two terms on the Fremont City Council, is running here as the only Alameda County politician, with support from a large number of local politicians, as well as Andrew Yang, for some reason. Lee has been one of the most outspoken advocates of decommodifying housing in the state. In response, the landlord lobby has dumped a ton of last minute spending against him to boost both Chu and Keng. This spending includes the now-iconic “lives with his mom” mailer. It’s silly, but it may work. Any combination of Lee, Chu, Diep, Keng, and the Republican candidate could make the runoff.
AD-27
Mike Karbassi vs. Esmeralda Soria
Another familiar name: Esmeralda Soria. Soria was the member of the Fresno City Council who challenged Blue Dog Rep Jim Costa in 2020, when no one else would. She did respectably well in that race, and established herself as a pretty good Democrat in a region of the state where politicians can, and often do, get quite conservative. Case in point: her Democratic opponent and colleague on the Fresno City Council, Mike Karbassi. Karbassi is running because taxes are too high, business regulations are too strict, and politicians are too scared to get tough on crime. He has the support of the cop unions, chamber of commerce, and Republican County Supervisor Steve Brandau. Once again, yes, Karbassi is theoretically a Democrat. Or, as he says on his website, “I am a Democrat, but…”
AD-28
Gail Pellerin vs. Rob Rennie vs. Joe Thompson
Santa Cruz County Clerk Gail Pellerin is a strong favorite here, and the drama is over second place. She may face an opponent to her right (Los Gatos Town Mayor Rob Rennie), to her left (Starbucks union organizer Joe Thompson), or neither (the Republican, giving her a safe November.)
AD-30
Dawn Addis vs. Zoë Carter vs. John Drake vs. Jon Wizard
This thin district contains all the coast between Santa Cruz and Santa Maria, giving it an odd composition where most voters are at either end, very far from each other. The favorite is Morro Bay Councilmember Dawn Addis, who ran unsuccessfully for a predecessor to this district in 2020 against a Republican incumbent. She mostly has the southern end of the district to herself, the only other Democrat being John Drake, a college student who ran for governor during the recall. That probably puts her into a runoff with the lone Republican, but there are two candidates in the north trying to get into that runoff: on the right, Monterey County Business Council Director of Operations Zoë Carter, and, on the left (sort of) Monterey County Planning Commissioner and ex-cop Jon Wizard.
AD-35
Jasmeet Bains vs. Leticia Perez
Leticia Perez is a Kern County Supervisor who loves oil and breaking campaign finance laws. Dr. Jasmeet Bains, the medical director at Bakersfield Recovery Services, doesn’t have much of a chance, but it’s nice that there’s at least someone running against a Democrat like that.
AD-51
Louis Abramson vs. Rick Chavez Zbur
It’s another beauty pageant. Rick Chavez Zbur is both the establishment and more progressive pick, while Louis Abramson just kind of exists.
AD-52
Wendy Carrillo (i) vs. Mia Livas Porter
There is a Republican running, but Biden got over 80% of the vote in this district; it’s functionally another beauty pageant. Wendy Carrillo has had her fair share of controversy over the past couple years: some inappropriate workplace behavior here, an aide going down on corruption charges there, but nothing’s shaken the establishment’s support of her. She’s managed to stay on the good side of progressive and moderate politicians thus far. Whether or not any of this has filtered down to voters will be seen in the performance of Mia Livas Porter, who has been recommended by many progressive voter guides, but hasn’t raised much money.
AD-60
Corey Jackson vs. Esther Portillo vs. Jasmin Rubio
Riverside Board of Education member and Chair of the California Democratic Party Black Caucus Corey Jackson has the party endorsement, but outgoing Assemb. Jose Medina’s senior district representative Esther Portillo has labor and, unsurprisingly, her boss. While she’s a little more moderate than Jackson is, San Jacinto Unified School District member Jasmin Rubio is the real moderate to worry about here. Luckily, she seems like the least likely to make the runoff. Because there’s only one Republican, and this is a district where Republicans may hit 40% of the vote or higher in the primary, this one’s getting decided tonight.
AD-61
Tina McKinnor vs. Robert Pullen-Miles vs. Angie Reyes English vs. Nico Ruderman
AD-61 special
Tina McKinnor vs. Robert Pullen-Miles
Tina McKinnor, the Civic Engagement Director of LA VOICE, is a rare spot of agreement between the party establishment and grassroots groups like KNOCK LA. It helps that over the decades she’s been involved in both worlds (as far as getting on the right side of politicians, being the Operations Director for the entire state party can’t hurt). She even has labor and the fickle California YIMBY group on her side. Lawndale (pop 32,000) Mayor Robert Pullen-Miles is putting together a respectable campaign with the help of some moderate elements of the the local establishment, and McKinnor’s runoff opponent could easily be him; it could also be Hawthorne City Council member Angie Reyes English, the only Hispanic candidate in a district where the number of eligible Hispanic voters has caught up to the number of eligible Black voters.
But this seat isn’t just open—it’s also vacant, meaning an interim Assemblymember still needs to be elected to serve out the rest of the year in Sacramento under slightly different lines. The first round of the special election took place in April, with McKinnor and Pullen-Miles placing first and second. The runoff between McKinnor and Pullen-Miles is also being decided today. If McKinnor wins, she’ll have the advantage of incumbency in November for a full term in the new district.
AD-62
Anthony Rendon (i) vs. Maria Estrada
Anthony Rendon first faced Maria Estrada in 2018. Since then, he’s become Assembly Speaker (though that could change any day now thanks to a leadership challenge) and blocked tons of good, progressive legislation. He deserves to go. Unfortunately…his opponent has not changed since 2018.
Estrada, with backing from progressive groups, held Rendon to an unimpressive 54.3-45.7 victory in 2018; then, as she geared up for a rematch in 2020, antisemitic comments she’d made came to light, spurring many of those progressive groups to abandon their support. She nevertheless got a little closer in 2020, cutting the margin to 53.7-46.3. This is another beauty pageant primary; Estrada has always done worse in the first round than in the second, so if she gets closer than her 58-42 deficit in 2020’s first round, it could portend a difficult November for Rendon.
AD-64
Elizabeth Alcantar vs. Roberto Cancio vs. Rose Espinoza vs. Blanca Pacheco vs. Ana Valencia
Labor, the Working Families Party, and the LA Times agree: vote for Cudahy City Councilmember Elizabeth Alcantar. Who doesn’t agree? Well, Orange County politicians seem to want one of their own to win despite this being a mostly LA County district, and are backing La Habra Mayor Rose Espinoza; and an odd coalition of cop unions, the party’s Legislative Latino Caucus, and local Downey politicians want Downey Mayor Blanca Pacheco to win. Cop unions backing Pacheco makes things tough for local school board member Roberto Cancio, whose campaign is mostly him banging on the tough-on-crime drum; meanwhile, Norwalk City Councilmember Ana Valencia’s campaign never really took off, and she was snubbed her own union (United Teachers Los Angeles), even though she was elected VP of it not too long ago.
AD-65
Mike Gipson (i) vs. Fatima Iqbal-Zubair
Leftist Fatima Iqbal-Zubair ran against moderate incumbent Mike Gipson here last cycle. November will be a rematch of that race, but this is just the beauty pageant round.
AD-68
Avelino Valencia vs. Bulmaro “Boomer” Vicente
Avelino Valencia is both a top staffer for retiring Assemblymember Tom Daly and an Anaheim City Councilmember in his own right. He really should have had this thing sewn up months ago. But, much like his boss and local Rep. Lou Correa, who also supports his campaign, Valencia is a tough pill for progressives to swallow. Some of them are actively backing nonprofit policy director Bulmaro “Boomer” Vicente, instead. While there are two Republicans, making a D-D runoff a distinct possibility, that would be bad news for Boomer, who really would not benefit from an infusion of GOP voters into the electorate. He’s probably got to clear the daunting hurdle of (effectively) winning outright tonight by collecting enough of the Democratic vote to shut Valencia out of the runoff.
AD-80 (& AD-80 special)
David Alvarez vs. Georgette Gómez
San Diego City Councilmembers David Alvarez and Georgette Gómez have already run this primary once, for the special election for this district (or, rather, the predecessor to the district), in April, which Gómez won 38.2% to 37.8%, but they have yet to face each other head to head in the special runoff, which will be the same day as the regular primary, which will lead to them facing each other again in the regular runoff. Confused? Too bad, we’re moving on.
Alameda County DA
Pamela Price vs. Seth Steward vs. Terry Wiley vs. Jimmie Wilson
Alameda County, which at 1.7 million residents is bigger than many states, has one of the most quietly consequential criminal justice elections happening in the country. Pamela Price, running again after losing 58-42 in 2018, is a defense attorney with deep ties to Oakland and the rest of the Bay Area, dating back to her law school days. She’s proposed concrete and meaningful standards as a prosecutor: no one under 18 charged as an adult, no death penalty sentences, create a Conviction Integrity Unit, and start charging cops for crimes. She’s the real deal, too. Angela Davis does not make many political endorsements, but she’s backing Price. On the other end of the spectrum is Terry Wiley, openly pining for the tough-on-crime attitudes of the 90s and regaling voters with horrifying tales of looting, murder, and total societal collapse if more people aren’t locked up, and soon. Assistant DA Jimmie Wilson comes from a similar place, but takes a much more placid tone. He doesn’t oppose criminal justice reform as a concept, and even found a couple of public defenders to endorse him, but it’s clear he’s a status quo choice. Finally, there’s Seth Steward, who is making a few overtures to reform that make it clear he’d be a break from the past—no cop union money, for instance—but is finding it hard to stake out a middle ground between Price and Wiley/Wilson. This race is expected to go into a runoff with Price in one spot and either Wiley or Wilson in the other. A Wiley-Wilson runoff would be very bad news.
Alameda County Sheriff
Gregory Ahern (i) vs. Yesenia Sanchez vs. Joann Walker
Gregory Ahern is basically a Republican, which makes it even more disgusting that some local Democrats like Eric Swalwell are happy to prop him up. He also directly contributed to the militarization of the police in the US by hosting trainings to help officers around the country prepare for “another 9/11”, something which he had to stop once the county struck that line item out of the budget (see? defunding the police works). Yesenia Sanchez, a former deputy in Ahern’s department, is endorsed by the Democratic Party, but Alameda County Democrats never invested in her campaign like they really should have, and now the risk is high of Ahern winning outright tonight (remember, 50% is enough in county races.)
Contra Costa County DA
Diana Becton (i) vs. Mary Knox
We’re not going to be able to write a better description of this race than how one local news station’s headline put it: Contra Costa's DA Sent a Sheriff's Deputy to Prison. Now Law Enforcement Groups Are Spending Big to Defeat Her. That’s, uh, yeah, that’s pretty much the story here.
Contra Costa County Sheriff
David Livingston (i) vs. Benjamin Therriault
As in Alameda County, the Democratic Party is a central organization in trying to oust the incumbent sheriff. This race is revolving around very much the same issue as the DA race: should it be possible to charge a police officer for a crime if they murder someone? Sheriff David Livingston has adamantly and publicly defended Deputy Andrew Hall, who was convicted by Diana Becton of killing Laudemer Arboleda and sentenced to six years. Richmond Police Department Sheriff Benjamin Therriault isn’t even campaigning as a criminal justice reformer, just someone who thinks murder charges should apply regardless of employment status.
Los Angeles County Sheriff
Alex Villanueva (i) vs. Karla Yesenia Carranza vs. Robert Luna vs. Cecil Rhambo vs. Matt Rodriguez vs. April Saucedo Hood vs. Britta Steinbrenner vs. Eric Strong vs. Eli Vera
Alex Villanueva was elected as the reform-ish alternative to a truly horrendous sheriff in 2018, but upon taking office he immediately proved to be every bit as bad as the old guy, if not worse. He’s a regular on the right-wing talking head circuit, and he encourages his notoriously violent department’s worst cruelties. But because Villanueva himself was the reform candidate last time, progressives and reformers understandably have a hard time trusting another challenger—they don’t want to get burned again. They’ve thus largely sat this race out, underwhelmed by the options. Quantity does not mean quality. Eric Strong seems like the reform-minded challenger with the fewest red flags, but this is a depressing race all around.
Los Angeles County Supervisor Dist. 3
Craig Bill vs. Bob Hertzberg vs. Roxanne Beckford Hoge vs. Lindsey Horvath vs. Henry Stern
State Sen. Bob Hertzberg is likely to make the runoff; the question is whether he’ll face West Hollywood Councilmember Lindsey Horvath or state Sen. Henry Stern. Both Horvath and Stern have been presenting themselves as progressives to some extent, but Stern’s progressivism only goes as far as empty, surface-level branding requires, and his actual record is that of an ultra-NIMBY liberal. Horvath is actually pretty progressive, which is why it’s a shame Stern has a much better shot at the runoff; here’s hoping she can pull off the upset.
Sacramento County DA
Thien Ho vs. Alana Mathews
Current DA Marie Schubert is running for state AG as a tough-on-crime independent, although it’s an open secret she was a Republican until she wanted to run statewide. In her wake is a decision about the direction of one of the highest crime counties in California. Thien Ho is a top prosecutor in Schubert’s office, and promises the status quo, which is why he’s supported by various police and business groups. Alana Mathews is backed by more mainstream Democrats and has promised an approach beyond maximal prosecution.
San Diego County Sheriff
Kelly Martinez vs. Dave Myers
The front page of Dave Myers’s website has a ticker of jail deaths that have occurred under the current administration’s watch. It’s a startling reminder of the stakes of this race, and an effective call-out of the current administration—represented in this election by Kelly Martinez, the current undersheriff. As in other sheriff races we’ve talked about tonight, Myers has support from the county Democratic Party and most of its mainstream politicians, while Martinez is trying to use the nonpartisan nature of the office to weave together a coalition of Republicans and more moderate Democrats and independents.
San Francisco DA recall
Progressive DA Chesa Boudin faces a recall from people angry he hasn’t solved all violent crime. Despite the fact that violent crime is at historic lows in San Francisco (and despite the fact that the SFPD, not Boudin, bears responsibility for the city’s response to low-level property crimes), Boudin is in deep trouble thanks to a cynical, anecdote- and vibe-based campaign against him by the SFPD and ostensibly neutral local media, whipping the public into a frenzy by seizing on individual incidents of crime. If Boudin is recalled, Mayor London Breed is sure to appoint a replacement who’s more than happy to further crowd California prisons and funnel low-income San Franciscans into the criminal legal system.
Santa Clara County DA
Jeff Rosen (i) vs. Daniel Chung vs. Sajid Khan
We’ve mentioned this race a couple times before. Jeff Rosen, a traditional tough-on-crime DA, faces a challenger to his right—former prosecutor Daniel Chung, who had some intense workplace disagreements with his boss—and to his left—public defender Sajid Khan. The race has focused in later days on Rosen’s repeated refusals to charge police officers with crimes, while Rosen and his allies have tried to make the case that a public defender can’t be trusted to prosecute. Rosen is expected to finish first, and Khan second. The suspense is over whether Khan can hold Rosen under 50% to keep this race alive until November.
Santa Clara County Sheriff
Sean Allen vs. Bob Jonsen vs. Christine Nagaye vs. Kevin Jensen
Police Sgt. Sean Allen’s candidacy has, if nothing else, one hell of a hook: he became a police officer after being wrongfully accused of murder as a teenager. He’s taken the most explicitly liberal tone in this race, even if that only amounts to supporting civilian input, not using police dogs for chasing suspects, and releasing body camera footage. Sgt. Kevin Jensen is the choice of all the cop unions, which means he’s the worst choice, and Christine Nagaye sits somewhere in between. Bob Jonsen is Palo Alto’s candidate, but Palo Alto is way too small to get someone into the runoff on its own.
Los Angeles Mayor
Rick Caruso vs. Karen Bass vs. Kevin de León vs. various
There are many, many candidates on the ballot for mayor of Los Angeles. Not all of them are still campaigning—City Attorney Mike Feuer and City Councilmember Joe Buscaino dropped out to endorse U.S. Rep. Karen Bass and de facto Republican billionaire Rick Caruso, respectively. City Councilmember/former Assembly Speaker and ill-fated Feinstein challenger Kevin de León is mounting a real campaign, and leftist Gina Viola has gotten traction on Twitter and in activist-y voter guides, but Feuer and Buscaino were each correct in their assessment of the race: Caruso and Bass are the only candidates who might make it to November.
Caruso was a Republican until a couple years into the Trump presidency, he’s running hard to the right, he’s spent tens of millions of dollars of his real estate-fueled fortune on a relentless flood of ads, and he’s got an annoying knack for pulling endorsements from extremely famous Californians (Elon Musk, Kim Kardashian, Katy Perry.) He is thus insanely vulnerable to attack; a rich asshole and recent Republican trying to buy himself City Hall is not exactly a good fit for deep-blue Los Angeles. If he has to face Bass in a runoff, it’s her race to lose unless Caruso’s first-round performance is pretty darn close to 50%—but his money and the fluidity of this race mean that can’t be ruled out. There’s even a chance, though slim, that Caruso gets a majority of the vote tonight and wins outright if a majority of voters don’t fill in the bubble next to somebody’s name other than Rick Caruso. Karen Bass is a generally tolerable progressive-ish member of Congress who stands between Caruso and the mayor’s office, but votes for Viola or someone else still help to block Caruso from winning tonight. Because of Caruso’s baggage, tonight might be his best chance at winning.
Los Angeles City Attorney
Hydee Feldstein Soto vs. Faisal Gill vs. Kevin James vs. Teddy Kapur vs. Richard Kim vs. Marina Torres vs. Sherri Onica Valle Cole
This race is an absolute mess. If we had to guess, we’d say Hydee Feldstein Soto (a standard tough-on-crime liberal with the LA Times endorsement) makes the runoff, but fuck if we know who joins her. Faisal Gill is a former Republican candidate for the Virginia state legislature who became a Democrat in the late 2000s and got active in Democratic politics; his past has, understandably, given progressives pause. Despite that, he’s probably the left’s candidate, because he’s the only candidate with a platform or rhetoric that anyone on the left might describe as progressive or left-leaning, and he evidently seems sincere enough about his party switch and ideological journey to convince many progressive groups he’s their guy. Richard Kim is running as the de facto Republican; Kevin James is an ex-Republican like Gill, but unlike Gill still has the politics you’d expect of a party-switcher; Marina Torres and Teddy Kapur are running for tough-on-crime Democrats who aren’t voting for Feldstein Soto; Sherri Onica Valle Cole is…running.
Los Angeles City Controller
Stephanie Clements vs. Paul Koretz vs. Reid Lidow vs. Kenneth Mejia vs. Carolan O'Gabhann vs. David Vahedi vs. Rob Wilcox
Because of the number of candidates, a runoff is pretty likely—specifically a runoff between City Councilmember Paul Koretz and leftist activist Kenneth Mejia, the only candidates whose campaigns have gotten real traction. Mejia is certainly one of the most interesting candidates of the year—a young ex-Green running on a message of competency and experience. Mejia has made a big deal of his status as the only CPA in the race, and has attempted to demonstrate his utility in the office by producing tools for residents to track everything from police payroll to affordable housing designations. He, surprisingly, got the LA Times endorsement. Koretz has taken this campaign sharply negative, and is plainly running to win on the Caruso coalition of Republicans and whatever moderates he can get his hands on.
Los Angeles City Council District 1
Gilbert Cedillo (i) vs. Eunisses Hernandez
In 2020, DSA-endorsed Nithya Raman shocked observers by defeating a City Councilmember for the first time in decades. Eunisses Hernandez is looking to repeat that feat. The district, which stretches from Central to Northeast LA, is probably amenable to a leftist, but Gil Cedillo is a tougher opponent. Despite being the deciding vote against a strong eviction moratorium measure during the pandemic, he still has a lot of progressive supporters, including Bernie Sanders, in what we think is the only instance of him and DSA coming down on different sides of an election. Surprisingly, the Los Angeles Times endorsed Hernandez over Cedillo.
Los Angeles City Council District 5
Jimmy Biblarz vs. Scott Epstein vs. Sam Yebri vs. Katy Young Yaroslavsky
Let’s start with the easy candidate to classify: Sam Yebri is awful, just comically so. He’s backed by landlords and cops, has endless business group endorsements, and said the DSA would make the KKK proud. Who progressives should back to beat him, though, is more contentious. Ground Game LA recommends Katy Young Yaroslavsky, some voter guides that have been passing around recommend Scott Epstein, LA-DSA pulled an NYT and recommended Epstein and Jimmy Biblarz. It’s a mess. Our take? Of the three, Biblarz has a good platform, but only moved back to LA two years ago and lacks the institutional support to make the runoff, and Epstein, while slightly less likely to make the runoff than Young Yaroslavsky due to her labor and LA Times endorsements, is considerably more progressive than her. He’s calling for reallocating money from the police and transitioning away from car-based streets downtown. That’s big stuff, and it makes him the best candidate by far.
Los Angeles City Council District 11
Erin Darling vs. Greg Good vs. Alison Holdorff Polhill vs. Midsanon Lloyd vs. Jim Murez vs Mike Newhouse vs. Traci Park vs. Mat Smith
There are about a billion candidates here, and many of them could make the runoff. Of the plethora of options, the one progressives have most been interested in is Erin Darling. Darling is the chosen successor of incumbent Mike Bonin, who was holding down the fort for progressives in the Council until Raman arrived in 2020. Most other candidates were trying to run against Bonin from his right (and some still are), which the exception being party-and-labor-endorsed Greg Good, who’s trying to walk a tightrope between angry reactionary and outspoken progressive, so that when he makes the runoff with a candidate of one side, he can inherit the supporters of the other.
Los Angeles City Council District 13
Mitch O’Farrell (i) vs. Albert Corado vs. Steve Johnson vs. Kate Pynoos vs. Hugo Soto-Martínez
If it weren’t for the literal Republican on the council (sadly not up this year) Mitch O’Farrell would easily be the most conservative member of the Council. Among other shameful “accomplishments,” he wrote the camping ban that has resulted in brutalization of the large homeless population in his district. He has 4 opponents, all to his left. He may very well make 50% tonight, but if he doesn’t, he’s in deep trouble. The most promising of his opponents is union organizer Hugo Soto-Martínez, who has DSA and Ground Game LA support. Unusually, two members of the City Council are also backing him over their colleague: Nithya Raman and Mike Bonin. The Los Angeles Times instead picked Kate Pynoos.
Los Angeles City Council District 15
Tim McOsker vs. Bryant Odega vs. Danielle Sandoval vs. Anthony Santich
Tim McOsker is the party-endorsed candidate, with support of most of labor, and also works for the police union. Great. One progressive alternative to McOsker is Harbor City Neighborhood Council President Danielle Sandoval, who was also president of International Longshore Warehouse Union Federated Auxiliary 8, and has the support of the city’s teachers’ union, a good sign. Another good sign (for her viability) is the LA Times endorsement she received. Running to the left of both of them is public school teacher Bryant Odega, who is supported by Ground Game LA and Sunrise. Anthony Santich is running to the right with some establishment support, and will probably siphon votes from McOsker.