5/24 Primary Preview
Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, and Texas runoffs
Another Tuesday, another set of primaries. This week, it’s all Southern states on deck: Alabama, Arkansas, and Georgia will vote in regular primaries today, and Texas will decide races by runoff today where no candidate achieved a majority of the vote in the March 1 primary. We’ll go state by state, but first we’ll lead with the race of the night.
TX-28
Henry Cuellar (i) vs. Jessica Cisneros
Round 1: 48.7% Cuellar, 46.6% Cisneros
It feels like so much has changed since the first round of this race. The country found out Roe v. Wade was going to be overturned, shining a spotlight on Henry Cuellar’s opposition to abortion rights. Tannya Benavides, the third-place finisher in the first round, endorsed Jessica Cisneros. Over $2.5 million in outside spending, mostly from AIPAC and LinkedIn founder Reid Hoffman, swarmed in to bolster Cuellar after no one was willing to touch him in the first round. The Cuellar campaign reached into the gutter and attempted to make the “homewrecker” label stick to Cisneros, following a Daily Mail story revealing her high school teacher had slept with her while she was a student. Nancy Pelosi recorded a robocall for Cuellar. A poll showing Cuellar losing leaked to Dave Wasserman.
But really, has anything changed? This race remains a turnout battle between San Antonio and the border, same as it was in March, and same as it was in 2006 when Cuellar first made it to Congress. To that end, early voting could potentially give us clues, but there’s no clear trend. Turnout in rural border counties, where Cuellar got his best margins and netted over 5,000 votes, is down by half. But turnout in his base of Webb, where he netted nearly as many votes, is actually up, a practically unheard of feat. Meanwhile, turnout is down 21% in Guadalupe and 32% in Bexar, Cisneros’s base. But the district takes just a piece of each—there’s no way of knowing how that countywide figure is distributed.
Suffice it to say that all about cancels out. We’re flying blind, and it all comes down to election day turnout.
Alabama
SD-19 (Birmingham)
Louise Alexander vs. Merika Coleman
Merika Coleman was one of two Democratic yes votes on HB 134, the infamous bill that criminalized trans healthcare for youth in the state. Her fellow state Rep. Louise Alexander was a no. If there’s a clearer explanation of the stakes of this race, we don’t know it.
SD-20 (Birmingham)
Linda Coleman-Madison (i) vs. Rodney Huntley
We can’t find much info on Rodney Huntley, aside from him being a retired prison warden, so sticking with the incumbent Linda Coleman-Madison is best here.
SD-23 (Rural)
Darrio Melton vs. Hank Sanders vs. Thayer Spencer vs. Robert Stewart
Selma Mayor Darrio Melton is probably about to make it to the state Senate, but if anyone’s standing in his way it’s party activist Robert Stewart, a graduate of the Congressional Black Caucus’s Boot Camp.
HD-52 (Birmingham)
John Rogers (i) vs. LaTanya Millhouse
John Rogers, who has been in the state house since the 80s, caused a massive controversy last year when, despite being personally opposed to abortion, he made some ill-advised defenses of keeping the procedure legal, starting off by saying “some kids are just unwanted, so you kill them now, or you kill them later” and it only got worse from there. Incidents like that are often a sign an incumbent needs to retire, or be retired, and Alabama Democratic Women chair LaTanya Millhouse is looking to do just that.
HD-54 (Birmingham)
Neil Rafferty (i) vs. Brit Blalock vs. Edward Maddox
LGBTQ organizer Brit Blalock, who would be the first openly nonbinary member of the Alabama legislature, has been running a spirited challenge to incumbent Neil Rafferty, who himself is the first out gay member of the legislature. Blalock says she’s been not only discouraged by state party officials for “eating my own” but that she’s also been followed and had her donors harassed during the campaign as well. She bills herself as “progressive across the board”, and is supported by the local DSA chapter, while Rafferty, who has one of the more blatant AOC-lookalike campaign logos we’ve seen, has the LGBTQ Victory Fund and party higher-ups.
HD-55 (Birmingham)
Rod Scott (i) vs. Travis Hendrix vs. Phyllis Oden-Jones vs. Fred Plump vs. Antwon Womack
Rod Scott was the other Democratic yes vote to make trans healthcare a felony in the state. He has 4 challengers, but Antwon Womack looks like the biggest threat. Womack lost to Scott 61-23 in 2018, but now has the support of organized labor. Fairfield (pop. 10,000) City Councilmember Phyllis Oden-Jones is also a serious candidate, and may help push this race to a runoff.
HD-56 (Birmingham)
Tereshia Huffman vs. Cleo King vs. Jesse Matthews vs. Ontario Tillman
Appointed Birmingham City Councilor Tereshia Huffman is backed by Mayor Randall Woodfin and other Birmingham progressives for this seat. Her two strongest opponents are Cleo King and Jesse Matthews. Both sit on the Bessemer City Council, which means both were likely in on the effort to help Amazon bust their union drive by speeding up traffic lights near the facility. King, who’s been Council President since 2017, definitely was.
HD-74 (Montgomery)
Malcolm Calhoun vs. Phillip Ensler
Montgomery Mayor Steven Reed’s top policy advisor, Phillip Ensler, is running for this district after leaving his post earlier this year. But Ensler is a white candidate in a majority Black district, and his opponent is Malcolm Calhoun, who only narrowly lost the primary runoff for an adjacent district in 2018 as the more business-friendly candidate.
Arkansas
HD-35 (Memphis suburbs)
Milton Nicks Jr. (i) vs. Demetris Johnson Jr.
Demetris Johnson Jr., a young, progressive member of the Earle City Council, is challenging ex-cop Milton Nicks Jr., who is running for his 5th term in the state House and recently voted for a massive income tax cut.
Georgia
GA-07
Carolyn Bourdeaux (i) vs. Lucy McBath (i) vs. Donna McLeod
After Republicans in Georgia decided that the best way to handle the growing and increasingly Democratic suburbs of Atlanta was to corral the bluest, least white precincts into a Gwinnett County-based district (a temporary measure that may not even hold for the decade), an incumbent-on-incumbent contest between Carolyn Bourdeaux and Lucy McBath was inevitable, no matter that neither actually lived in the new district. Though Lucy McBath is a moderate who endorsed Michael Bloomberg, Bourdeaux is worse in just about every way. As one of the self-proclaimed “Unbreakable Nine” group of conservative House Democrats who held Build Back Better hostage, she bears some responsibility for the failure of BBB. McBath, on the other hand, does not. Plus, Bourdeaux is a Blue Dog, and that caucus needs to be Old Yellered.
This primary is widely expected to be an easy win for McBath, and given the millions spent by Bloomberg and Everytown for Gun Safety for McBath, progressives haven’t felt the need to boost one moderate to punish another. There is the possibility of a runoff; state Rep. Donna McLeod is on the ballot, and while she hasn’t raised or spent much nor gotten much attention, as a second-term state representative she might have the name recognition and retail politicking skill to get enough of the vote to keep McBath and Bourdeaux below 50%.
GA-13
David Scott (i) vs. Vincent Fort vs. Mark Baker
We have written extensively about the horrible career of David Scott. He may be more quiet about it than Kurt Schrader, but they are both on the rightmost flank of the caucus, they’re both naked instruments of predatory financial industries, and they’ve both overstayed their welcome. But while Schrader is probably going to be spending the weekend taking salary bids from the nation's worst lobbying firms, Scott is on track to win yet another term. He faces two challengers to his left: South Fulton City Councilor Mark Baker and former state Sen. Vincent Fort. Fort, a Bernie Sanders surrogate and recent mayoral candidate, has received more attention from national progressives, including from Bernie himself. However, that hasn't translated into much fundraising or local allies to boost his campaign. In 2020, David Scott was nearly forced into a runoff by Keisha Waites, who spent no money and at that point had failed at her last few campaigns despite previously holding office. History may repeat itself here, and right now all progressives are hoping for is for Fort to hold Scott under that magic 50% line.
SD-06 (North Atlanta)
Jason Esteves vs. Luisa Wakeman
The stakes here seem pretty low. Both Jason Esteves, who chairs the Atlanta Board of Education, and Luisa Wakeman, who narrowly missed flipping a GOP-held state House seat in 2018 and 2020, seem like standard liberal Democrats who will do a good enough job in office. Esteves likely has the advantage because he’s known in the more Democratic part of the district, but either could win. Esteves has accepted money from pro-charter group Democrats for Educational Equity, while Wakeman has the teacher’s union endorsement despite Esteves being on the school board, which makes Wakeman probably the better choice here.
SD-07 (Gwinnett County, northeast Atlanta suburbs)
Nabilah Islam vs. Beth Moore
Nabilah Islam is referred to by some local press as Atlanta’s AOC, which is a bit much, even if AOC did endorse Islam in her 2020 campaign for GA-07. That election went poorly for her—as in 12%, 3rd place—but this year her odds are much better. She’s running a similarly progressive campaign for the much bluer (Biden+17), majority-minority SD-07, against moderate state Rep. Beth Moore, who flipped a slightly overlapping state House district in 2018. The race has turned into a proxy war, not just for progressives and moderates fighting for control over the suddenly powerful Democratic base in Gwinnett County, but also Congressmembers Lucy McBath, who is backing Islam, and Carolyn Bourdeaux, who is backing Moore. Islam also has the Working Families Party and Stacey Abrams’s Fair Fight PAC. The final week of the campaign has gotten ugly as Islam went hard negative, sending out a mailer essentially accusing Moore of being a closet Republican for high rates of voting with the GOP (fair), and supporting some election process bills that every other Democrat also voted for (more questionable).
SD-10 (Southeast Atlanta suburbs)
Emanuel Jones (i) vs. Bruce Holmes
This race has a lot of interesting personal drama—Emanuel Jones drew up the Henry County Commission redistricting plan that put Commissioner Bruce Holmes outside of his own district and made him ineligible to run for reelection, so Holmes decided to run against Jones instead—but there’s little ideological about this contest.
SD-33 (Cobb County, northwest Atlanta suburbs)
Michael Rhett (i) vs. Euriel Hemmerly
Michael Rhett is a quiet backbencher, but his opponent, Euriel Hemmerly, is a suburban realtor running on a platform of tax cuts for businesses.
SD-35 (South Fulton and other southwestern Atlanta suburbs)
Donzella James (i) vs. Lula Gilliam vs. Mike Glanton Jr. vs. Whitney Kenner Jones
Donzella James has been an above-average legislator, especially for someone who’s been in the job off and on for 30 years now. Her last few elections have revealed a growing appetite for new blood in the abstract—she was held to 67% in 2018 and 63% in 2020—but she has yet to face any particularly challenging opponent. This year she has Lula Gilliam, who seems nice but also gave $250 to the Lincoln project; Mike Glanton Jr., the son of a state rep and a failed 2018 opponent of hers; and Whitney Kenner Jones, who also exists. All in all, it looks like another term for James is in the cards.
SD-36 (Downtown Atlanta)
Nan Orrock (i) vs. Asa Smith vs. Chase Stell
Nan Orrock, who has been in the legislature since the 80s, represents a majority-Black district in the rapidly growing urban core of Atlanta. The first real test of her ability to adapt to changing times comes this year. Chase Stell, the president of the Young Democrats of Atlanta, is running to her left and has a lot of support from within the party, including City Councilmember Antonio Lewis.
SD-38 (Atlanta and western suburbs)
Horacena Tate (i) vs. Melody Bray vs. Michael Carson vs. Adam Petty
Horacena Tate has been in office since the 90s, with little to show for it. After missing the entirety of the last legislative session for a mystery illness (that was not COVID-19) many expected her to retire, but she chose reelection instead. Progressives, in response, are largely backing realtor and voting rights nonprofit director Melody Bray, who has been critical of Tate for not showing up for votes.
HD-39 (Mableton, inner western Atlanta suburbs)
Terry Cummings vs. Monica DeLancy vs. Deborah Johnson vs. Wanda Lester-Anthony vs. Tamarre Pierre
This race has way too many candidates and is almost certainly going to a runoff. Hopefully renter advocate Monica DeLancy snags one of those two spots. Terry Cummings, who brags on her website about spending her career representing prisons in court against inmates, is the worst of the bunch, and unfortunately up there with DeLancy in likelihood to make the runoff.
HD-40 (Smyrna, inner western Atlanta suburbs)
Thomas Casez vs. Doug Stoner
Doug Stoner represented similar territory in the state senate in the 2000s. After gerrymandering doomed him in 2012, he’s kept running for office, both local and statewide. At this point, new blood is probably for the best, even if software developer Thomas Casez isn’t running a particularly policy–heavy campaign.
HD-55 (west Atlanta)
Nate Green vs. Inga Willis
While marketing specialist Inga Willis seems like she’d be a reliable vote in the state house, it’s former Keisha Waites campaign manager Nate Green who is running the more progressive campaign.
HD-56 (central Atlanta)
Mesha Mainor (i) vs. Will Chandler vs. Keona Jones
From our coverage of this district last cycle:
This open race has a pretty good option: Josh McNair, a gay civic activist, and a decidedly bad one: Darryl Terry, running a clearly moderate campaign. Mesha Mainor hasn’t expounded on her policy too much as far as we can tell, but does have a social media presence that suggests good things.
Well, we were wrong. Mesha Mainor was in fact pretty terrible. Most publicly, her support of charter schools has been damning, but it also seems like she’s pissed off everyone across the ideological spectrum for no particular reason. Kenoa Jones, who narrowly missed a City Council runoff last year, has the support of many organizations and politicians who seem to simply want Mainor gone.
HD-59 (central Atlanta)
Toney Collins vs. Phil Olaleye
Progressive organizations have lined up behind Phil Olaleye, director of Next Generation Men & Women, a student mentorship nonprofit. It’s a good resume, but it really shines in comparison to his opponent, Toney Collins. Collins won a state house seat on the opposite side of the metro, seemingly by accident, in 2008. He lost reelection and failed badly in two comeback attempts. This will hopefully be his fourth consecutive loss.
HD-60 (west and north Atlanta)
Sheila Jones (i) vs. Steven Lee
It’s unclear what exactly Sheila Jones has done to piss off a large chunk of Atlanta progressives—our only guess is supporting Felicia Moore for mayor—but she has, and now many of them, including Keisha Waites and Antonio Brown, are supporting Steven Lee, who has run for House several times before without much success.
HD-62 (East Point and downtown Atlanta)
Thomas Calloway vs. Tanya Miller vs. Josh Noblitt
Much of the area’s progressives and the Atlanta establishment have coalesced behind minister and sex therapist Josh Noblitt, while suburban politicians are backing East Point City Councilmember Thomas Calloway. Former prosecutor and current defense attorney Tanya Miller is somehow the only Black candidate in this 74% Black district, and as a high-powered attorney has had the money to get her name out.
HD-90 (Atlanta and near eastern suburbs)
Saira Draper vs. Peter Hubbard vs. Bentley Hudgins vs. Stewart Parnacott vs. Michelle Schreiner
This open district, most of which used to be represented by Stacey Abrams, has a strong Democratic base, and, now, a free-for-all primary. Bentley Hudgins is the leftist here: a nonbinary organizer backed by labor unions, the Working Families Party, and controversially, Fair Fight, in their first endorsement of the cycle. Hudgins got their start organizing in college for a law against anti-LGBTQ employment discrimination in Macon and has made waves in Democratic circles since then. The other candidates seen as likely to make the runoff are Saira Draper, the state party’s Director of Voter Protection, and former HHS staffer Michelle Schreiner, both of whom have more in the way of establishment support.
HD-97 (Gwinnett County, north Atlanta metro)
Ruwa Romman vs. JT Wu
Ruwa Romman, the former communications director for CAIR Georgia, has captured the attention of organized labor, the Working Families Party, Fair Fight, and a variety of other progressive politicians and groups. JT Wu is supported by Carolyn Bourdeaux, which is really all you need to know.
HD-106 (Snellville, northeast Atlanta metro)
Shelly Hutchinson (i) vs. Rebecca Mitchell (i)
It’s a testament to how quickly the Atlanta suburbs are growing that the legislature only created a single double-bunk for Democrats. Shelly Hutchinson and Rebecca Mitchell both flipped their seats from Republicans: Hutchinson and 2018 and Mitchell in 2020. This district really exemplifies the changes in suburban Atlanta—after narrowly voting for Trump in 2016, Biden won it by 19% in 2020. Hutchinson and Mitchell seem similar on the surface, but the party seems to prefer Hutchinson, even if she’s pulling the now classic trick of using an old endorsement from Obama on her website to drive the point home.
Texas Runoffs
TX-30
Jasmine Crockett vs. Jane Hope Hamilton
Round 1: Crockett 48.4%, Hamilton 17.1%
There’s little doubt that state Rep. Jasmine Crockett, one of the Texas Legislature’s most progressive members, will win. Jane Hope Hamilton, who worked on Joe Biden’s 2020 primary campaign, was in a very distant second on March 1, and Crockett has the backing of everyone from Bernie Sanders to outgoing moderate Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson (as well as, oddly enough, Protect Our Future, one of cryptocurrency billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried’s personal super PACs.) Hamilton’s campaign at this point seems powered purely by the segment of the Dallas political class that has an axe to grind with Johnson.
SD-27 (Brownsville)
Morgan LaMantia vs. Sara Stapleton-Barrera
Round 1: LaMantia 33.7%, Stapleton-Barrera 32.7%
Sara Stapleton-Barrera, an attorney and activist, came close to defeating arch-conservative state Sen. Eddie Lucio Jr. in 2020, forcing him into a runoff with the help of then-SBOE member Ruben Cortez and holding Lucio to a 53.5-46.5 margin in the runoff. Rather than face Stapleton-Barrera or another challenger again, Lucio retired, and good riddance. The race to succeed him is between Stapleton-Barrera and local business tycoon Morgan LaMantia, whose past support of Republicans, endorsement from Lucio, and embrace of Republican immigration rhetoric are each disqualifying on their own and together guarantee LaMantia will be barely better than Lucio if she wins. This is a real “heart and soul of the Democratic Party” moment for a region whose supposed conservatism has been used to excuse some truly terrible Democrats.
HD-22 (Beaumont)
Christian Manuel Hayes vs. Joseph Trahan
Round 1: Trahan 48.4%, Hayes 42.7%
Joseph Trahan, the chair of the local Democratic Party, surprised us by coming out ahead of Christian Manuel Hayes, a former aide to outgoing state Rep. Joe Deshotel. Trahan and Hayes are both generally vague on policy, but Trahan is critical of charter schools as a threat to public schools while Hayes is not, which explains why the American Federation of Teachers backs Trahan—and also explains why we’re rooting for him over Hayes.
HD-37 (Brownsville)
Ruben Cortez Jr. vs. Luis Villarreal Jr.
Round 1: Cortez 41.3%, Villarreal 38.5%
Ruben Cortez Jr., like his fellow 2020 Lucio challenger Sara Stapleton-Barrera, is back for another round with the conservative South Texas Democratic establishment. State Rep. Alex Dominguez, a standard Democrat (which makes him better than most South Texas Democratic electeds), left behind this seat to run unsuccessfully in SD-27. Cortez ran here rather than take another pass at SD-27 himself, and he faces former Lucio aide Luis Villarreal Jr. in today’s runoff after narrowly outpolling him in March.
HD-70 (Suburban Dallas and Plano)
Cassandra Garcia Hernandez vs. Mihaela Plesa
Round 1: Hernandez 34.2%, Plesa 33.1%
Cassandra Garcia Hernandez was the most moderate candidate in the first round; legislative aide Mihaela Plesa is now the progressive option, with progressives’ original choice, Lorenzo Sanchez, coming up just short of Plesa for the second runoff spot in March. Neither Plesa nor Hernandez has any obvious red flags, and both have endorsements from a variety of organizations and politicians; the stakes here are relatively low.
HD-100 (Central Dallas)
Sandra Crenshaw vs. Venton Jones
Round 1: Crenshaw 34.2%, Jones 25.6%
Sandra Crenshaw is a perennial candidate at this point, having ran and lost for so many offices it bears mentioning before even mentioning her single term on the Dallas City Council in the 1990s. She is also…terrible. She recently attacked Venton Jones, her opponent, for being open about having HIV. Or at least we think that’s what she meant, because it’s not entirely clear; what is clear is that she has an issue with Jones’s disclosure of his HIV status, and she’s fixated on his sexuality even though she claims she’s “not against gays.”
HD-114 (Downtown Dallas)
John W. Bryant vs. Alexandra Guio
Round 1: Guio 24.7%, Bryant 21.3%
Both candidates here leave something to be desired: prosecutor Alexandra Guio has voted in Republican primaries in the past, while former U.S. Rep. John W. Bryant is the definition of a blast from the past, having left politics after his final term in Congress ended way back in January 1997. Dallas’s political class seems as perplexed by this race as we are.
HD-147 (Downtown and South Houston)
Jolanda Jones (i) vs. Danielle Keys Bess
Round 1*: Jones 41.8%, Keys Bess 19.9%
May 9 special election: Jones 52.3%, Keys Bess 47.7%
There’s a quirk to this election: Jolanda Jones became House District 147’s state representative after the March primary which set up today’s runoff with Danielle Keys Bess. The March primary and today’s runoff are for the full two-year term on the ballot in November. State Rep. Garnet Coleman resigned his seat in February for health reasons, and the special election to fill it was held on May 9. Jones, with Coleman’s support, won the special election. Neither Jones nor Keys Bess was progressives’ first choice, but Jones now touts the endorsement of the Texas Organizing Project, a progressive group that backed teacher Aurelia Wagner in the first round, while Keys Bess has state Rep. Harold Dutton, one of the most conservative Democrats in the Texas House. Jones is the one to root for.
State Board of Education District 4 (Houston)
Staci Childs vs. Coretta Mallet-Fontenot
Round 1: Mallet-Fontenot 38.6%, Childs 28.1%
Coretta Mallet-Fontenot is the choice of teachers’ unions, while Staci Childs is charter schools’ candidate of choice. In a board of education race, that makes for a very easy choice, and thankfully it’s Mallet-Frontenot, who was well ahead of Childs in the first round.
Bexar County Judge
Ina Minjarez vs. Peter Sakai
Round 1: Sakai 40.7%, Minjarez 30.7%
In Texas, a County Judge is what the other 49 more sane states would call a county executive or county mayor. The Bexar County Judge, then, is the chief executive of a county of 2 million residents, including the city of San Antonio. It’s a big deal, and this is the first open race in decades now that longtime County Judge Nelson Wolff is retiring. That only makes it more frustrating that this runoff is a relatively bland affair; the local establishment seems to have developed a preference for family court judge Peter Sakai, while state Rep. Ina Minjarez is the choice of more progressive elements in San Antonio politics such as democratic socialist city councilman Jalen McKee-Rodriguez and the Texas Organizing Project.
El Paso County Commissioner Precinct 2
David Stout (i) vs. Judy Gutierrez
Round 1: Stout 43.3%, Gutierrez 39.5%
County Commissioner David Stout is being challenged from the right by Judy Gutierrez, an unsuccessful candidate for city council in 2020. Stout angered the police by daring to say that police brutality is bad, and Gutierrez is their candidate. She specifically cites a social media post of Stout’s (in which he talked about marching in memory of victims of police violence) as her reason for running. Her entire campaign is about loving cops and hating taxes. Based on her campaign website, we believe she may think she’s running to be a cop, rather than a county commissioner.
Harris County Commissioner Precinct 4
Lesley Briones vs. Benjamin Chou
Round 1: Briones 33.9%, Chou 24.6%
What was a pretty boring campaign in the first round has become a pretty ugly one in the runoff. Civil court judge Lesley Briones, the frontrunner, came under fire in the final days of the race for an online ad her campaign ran which digitally altered former elections official Benjamin Chou’s face; the alterations clearly played on racial stereotypes about Asians. Briones’s campaign pulled the ad quickly, and claims it was a simple Photoshop filter used by a graphic designer without approval, but that wasn’t enough to stop the backlash.