We wanted to split the primary preview because of its obscene length, but couldn’t settle on a good way to do it because of similarities between races in the two biggest states voting today, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. So we’re just cleaving Oregon off because they happen to be in a different time zone. Listen, it’s the best we had. Welcome to Primary School’s first—and far from last—luxuriously oversized primary preview of the 2022 primary season.
The battle for the heart and soul of the Democratic Party is most acutely going to be felt in a a pair of districts where the left flank of the party is trying to elect a local officeholder, only to be blindsided by millions in right-wing money scrambling to block them from office by promoting whatever liberal-to-moderate establishment pick was at hand: NC-04 and PA-12. These races share so many similarities we feel compelled to address them both first before getting into the rest of the preview; our items for NC-04 and PA-12 will not be in the North Carolina and Pennsylvania sections of this issue to avoid being duplicative.
NC-04
Durham, Chapel Hill, Burlington; central North Carolina
Nida Allam vs. Clay Aiken vs. Valerie Foushee vs. assorted
It's unfortunate that N comes before P in the alphabet, because we'd rather not begin on a dour note, in a district where it looks like it's working. State Sen. Valerie Foushee, a well-known politician from a political family, has less of a "where the hell did this asshole come from" problem than what often occurs when big money tries to prop up a candidate. And big money is absolutely propping her up. AIPAC has spent $2.13M through their United Democracy Project Super PAC on her, Cryptocurrency-funded Protect Our Future has spent $1.04M, Democratic Majority for Israel has spent $290K, a total of close to $3.5 million. Foushee also has a variety of supporters to speak for her character (including EMILY's List, for some reason) and the good sense to understand that public appearances can only do her harm when her message is already being blasted out at what can feel like a million dollars a minute—when she does she has a tendency to say things like “We are the big tent party, and we welcome varying opinions about democracy."
While Nida Allam, who was first elected- wait, no, we're not going to intro these candidates again, you already know the major players here if you're reading this. Allam is either the rare left-wing candidate with a record so spotless even out of context that both AIPAC and DMFI decided against firing up the smear machine, or not seen as a true threat. We know that they were polling possible attacks, and that early on people were feeding the press negative tweets she’d sent out, so it’s hard not to conclude the latter. The flip side is also true: Allam's team never found a way to effectively message against Valerie Foushee or the tidal wave of money behind her. Her message has instead focused heavily on two things: her life story, and the Bernie and Warren endorsements she's received. Allam’s failure to secure a Justice Democrats endorsement (if she was ever trying for one) means that she’s only being supported by the Working Families Party, who have only spent half as much on her as they have on Erica Smith despite the district being much more expensive, and a handful of local groups, which help, but the progressive movement is still struggling to control the city of Durham, let alone the suburbs and rurals.
There's only been one publicly released poll of this race, an EMILY's List internal from late April, showing their endorsed candidate, Foushee, up 35% to 16% over Nida Allam. The poll is better viewed as bad for Allam than it is good for Foushee—Allam had barely made it to air by that point while Foushee and her benefactors had already started hammering the airwaves. But that’s still a lot of ground to make up in two weeks, and no one involved with the race has been acting like they believe she’s done it. Clay Aiken, despite raising a lot of money and having a celebrity platform, has been mostly left behind in all of this, but we at least expect him to finish comfortably ahead of whichever minor candidate ends up in fourth place.
Roughly half of the district’s Democratic voters are in Durham County, roughly a quarter are in Orange County (Chapel Hill), and roughly a quarter are elsewhere. Foushee should do best in the “elsewhere”, while Allam’s best county is harder to figure out. Orange County is usually more progressive than Durham, but Foushee represents Orange, while Allam represents Durham.
PA-12
Pittsburgh and suburbs
Jerry Dickinson vs. Steve Irwin vs. Summer Lee
This might be the blockbuster race of the night. State Rep. Summer Lee is a progressive superstar and democratic socialist who rose to prominence when she defeated an incumbent state representative from Pittsburgh’s powerful Costa dynasty, and has since become the closest thing there is to a de facto leader of Pittsburgh’s left. If she was only up against the Pittsburgh machine, this race would be over already—Lee and her allies have beaten the machine so many times they almost make it look easy. But attorney Steve Irwin (a man too bland to say much about, beyond noting that he’s a union-busting attorney and former Republican Senate staffer) doesn’t just have the local machine. He’s also got the network of centrist and pro-Israel groups that have been pouring millions into every ideologically-tinged House primary across the country with the transparent hope of stamping out progressive campaigns with nothing more than money. The Pittsburgh area has been swamped with ads and mailers trashing Lee and doing their best to make a wet paper towel like Irwin seem exciting. Neither side is trading fire with Jerry Dickinson, a progressive law professor who ran for this seat in 2020 and did better than expected against Rep. Mike Doyle.
It’s showing results. Irwin’s team said they’ve been polling through April, and the most recent of their three polls shows him up 30% to 29%, a major change from the 38% to 13% lead Lee had in an early April poll of the race that EMILY’s List released. What happened in between those polls? A three-week stretch of unanswered pro-Irwin and anti-Lee TV ads, the same dynamic that sunk Nina Turner in OH-11. However, in the last couple weeks, Lee has been on the air, as has Justice Democrats, who have put together a nearly $1 million effort, and they’ve been joined by the WFP to the tune of about $200K. That still doesn’t match what pro-Irwin forces spent in that time, but at least it’s comparable. Essentially, that poll showing a 1% Irwin lead was taken at a time when Irwin was going unanswered on the airwaves, and he no longer has that luxury. We hope that’s enough.
Kentucky
KY-03
Louisville
Morgan McGarvey vs. Attica Scott
State Rep. Attica Scott was running before Rep. John Yarmuth retired, but the departure of the incumbent didn’t invigorate her campaign as one might’ve expected. Instead, Morgan McGarvey, the Democratic leader in the Kentucky Senate, collected establishment support, campaign cash, and PAC backing, while Scott kept chugging along as if she was still mounting an upstart progressive campaign against an incumbent. We wouldn’t count her out entirely—she has some endorsements from progressive groups, and as both the only Black candidate and the only female candidate she has a simple pitch to make to undecided voters concerned with representation for Black and female Kentuckians. But McGarvey has been raising and spending like crazy, and this race never seemed to take off, so we ultimately expect him to win and win big. In addition to McGarvey’s heavy spending advantage over Scott, $1 million to $200,000, he’s also been bolstered by over $1 million in spending (mostly from Protect Our Future PAC, but also from DMFI.)
HD-30
Louisville
Tom Burch (i) vs. Daniel Grossberg vs. Neal Turpin
Tom Burch, the 90-year-old incumbent, has served in the state house since the early 70s, making him one of the oldest and longest tenured legislators in America. Challenging him, for the second cycle in a row, is Jefferson County Commissioner Daniel Grossberg, a self-funding real estate agent. While Grossberg is running on a vaguely progressive platform, the criticisms he’s making of Burch are mostly non-ideological, like missing votes. Also in the race is Neal Turpin, who is running on the most progressive policy platform, but whose appearance in a 2020 Burch campaign video raises questions about whether he’s a stalking horse in this race.
HD-43
Louisville
Pamela Stevenson (i) vs. Robert LeVertis Bell
Robert LeVertis Bell was on the DSA slate for Metro Legislative Council (Louisville City Council) in 2020, but lost 35% to 29% despite running a strong campaign. Bell is now challenging freshman incumbent Pamela Stevenson, criticizing her over the West End TIF, a multi-million dollar slush fund for local developers that Stevenson says will prevent gentrification.
Louisville Mayor
David Nicholson vs Timothy Findley Jr. vs. Craig Greenberg vs. Shameka Parrish-Wright
Louisville will also be selecting a new mayor today, in effect; mayoral elections are partisan in Louisville, and the city backed Joe Biden by a margin of more than twenty percentage points. Today’s Democratic primary is probably the ballgame. The city’s establishment is split: more moderate elements are backing Jefferson County Circuit Court Clerk David Nicholson, who’s spent the campaign hammering on crime and homlessness in the city, while more liberal elements are getting behind businessman Craig Greenberg, who is focusing more on education and improving public transportation, even though his actual plans aren’t too far removed from Nicholson’s. More progressive options include minister Timothy Findley Jr. and Black Lives Matter/general policing reform activist Shameka Parrish-Wright, best known for her work with The Bail Project, which helps people who are charged but cannot afford bail for themselves. This race received national attention after Quintez Brown, a local “social justice activist” according to reporting, shot at Greenberg in an attempt to kill the candidate. Further controversy arose after he was released on bail with the help of a bail fund—not the one Parrish-Wright is involved with, though that hasn’t stopped her from getting blowback.
North Carolina
NC-01
Eastern North Carolina (Greenville, Rocky Mount, Wilson)
Don Davis vs. Erica Smith
North Carolina's 1st district is not the kind of place progressives have had success in recently. It's Southern (while the Research Triangle is known as a hub of Northern transplants, the rest of eastern North Carolina is not), it’s rural (the largest city is 87,000 person Greenville), and it’s historically quite favorable to moderate candidates. The reason this race may buck that trend is former state Sen. Erica Smith. Smith, from her first election in 2014, when she defeated a white incumbent in the primary, has never been one to roll over for the party establishment. The clearest example of this was when she had the courage to accuse two of her fellow Democratic state senators of abusive behavior, accusing Winston-Salem Democrat Paul Lowe of threatening her on the Senate floor (an accusation corroborated by other senators and a police report) and accusing Wilson Democrat Toby Fitch of sexual harassment. Smith, a standard liberal in the legislature, also bucked the party by running for US Senate instead of reelection in 2020, challenging DSCC pick Cal Cunningham. She positioned herself as a as a progressive in that race, and has stuck with the progressives ever since—in her 2022 Senate campaign (she withdrew to run for Congress) and in this House race. At this point, many progressive groups that were relatively skeptical of her in 2020 have gotten over that skepticism, and she’s the best shot progressives have had in any rural Southern district in quite a while. Part of the reason for that is her opponent, Don Davis.
Don Davis is a state senator from Greenville, and he’s absolutely awful. Smith had no shortage of flaws in her pre-2022 career, but whatever she did wrong pales in comparison to Davis’s record, which includes enough anti-abortion votes to get a lifetime spot on pro-choice groups’ shit list and a variety of other bad votes just to make Davis a well-rounded garbage Democrat. For example, after Democratic leadership put their thumb on the scale for Cunningham in 2020 and froze Smith out because she had accused Fitch, she made the inexcusable choice to back Republican candidates against some of the senators who had covered for Fitch—but in 2019, Davis was the lone Democrat who voted to override Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper’s veto of an abortion restriction bill passed by North Carolina Republicans, and he’s voted for multiple Republican state budget proposals as recently as last year, so party loyalty isn’t his strong suit either, and unlike Smith he’s never even feinted at having a change of heart—he’s as much of a Blue Dog conservative as ever. (That hasn’t stopped many big names from endorsing Davis, including outgoing Rep. G.K. Butterfield. The Democrats, folks!)
According to the only publicly-available poll, a Davis internal conducted in early May, Davis led Smith 44-31. But that was after AIPAC had already dropped more than a million dollars on ads boosting Davis—and before WFP had come to Smith’s aid. (AIPAC has since dropped another millon, and DMFI has also gotten involved, but now they aren’t going unanswered—WFP has committed more than half a million dollars to Smith in the final days of the race, mostly in the form of TV ads.) Davis seems favored, but handicapping this one is hard, particularly with the late shifts in outside spending patterns.
SD-05 (Greenville)
Kandie D. Smith vs. Lenton Brown
State Rep. Kandie Smith is a strong favorite over realtor Lenton Brown, whose platform includes rolling back gun laws. The aforementioned Don Davis is leaving this seat behind, so good riddance.
SD-13 (Raleigh)
Lisa Grafstein vs. Patrick Buffkin
Patrick Buffkin, who sits on the Raleigh City Council, might seem a more natural fit for the support of labor unions and establishment figures in the Research Triangle than disability rights lawyer Lisa Grafstein, even if Grafstein has been involved in politics for decades. But Buffkin, the most conservative member of the Council, has made few friends with episodes like going out of his way to oppose police oversight, or a more recent controversy stemming from his comments on how the city should avoid building housing specifically for the poor because it would lack “role models” and “hope”. Grafstein is clearly the more progressive of the two.
SD-19 (Fayetteville)
Kirk deViere (i) vs. Val Applewhite vs. Ed Donaldson
State Sen. Kirk deViere flipped a swing district in 2018 and held it in 2020. Unfortunately for both deViere and North Carolina Democrats, his voting record has included more caution and moderation than his district really justified, and now deViere’s bill has come due. Val Applewhite, a former Fayetteville city councilor and mayoral candidate, is running with the support of Gov. Roy Cooper, who bristled at some of deViere’s votes with Republicans. Ed Donaldson, a former judge who lost to deViere in the 2018 primary, is also taking another crack at it because, well, why not? But the contest is between deViere and Applewhite, with Applewhite being the one to root for.
SD-23 (Chapel Hill and rural surroundings)
Jamie DeMent Holcomb vs. Graig Meyer
State Rep. Graig Meyer is probably about to waltz into the Senate seat being vacated by Valerie Foushee, facing only former Brad Miller staffer Jamie DeMent Holcomb as opposition. She has EMILY’s List supporting her, but that’s about it, and she’s failed to differentiate herself in any meaningful way from Meyer, which is usually a bad strategy for anyone running against an establishment favorite.
SD-49 (Asheville)
Julie Mayfield (i) vs. Sandra Kilgore vs. Taylon Breeden
Sandra Kilgore is the latest piece of supporting evidence for our thesis that no one in municipal government should hold elected office. In the Asheville City Council, she’s been the most consistently anti-homeless member, even attending anti-shelter meetings. She’s also opposed efforts to zone for denser housing and generally has a record entirely unsurprising for a realtor like herself. Progressives, from the Progressive Caucus, to environmental groups, to labor, are instead backing incumbent Julie Mayfield, who is emphasizing a Green New Deal in her campaign. Also challenging Mayfield, but from her left, is Taylon Breeden, an activist whose campaign is supported by the Asheville DSA. She ran for County Commission District 3 in 2018 and got 16% of the vote.
HD-27 (rural northeastern NC)
Michael Wray (i) vs. Jerry McDaniel
We can’t find a shred of information on Jerry McDaniel, but Michael Wray voted for the bathroom bill, so fuck ‘em.
HD-33 (Raleigh suburbs)
Rosa Gill (i) vs. Nate Blanton
Incumbent state Rep. Rosa Gill is being challenged by Nate Blanton, running on a pro-gun platform. We have no idea why this keeps happening.
HD-42 (Fayetteville)
Marvin Lucas (i) vs. Naveed Aziz
It’s difficult to find much information on Dr. Naveed Aziz—her social media hasn’t been updated since 2018, and she doesn’t have a website. But she nearly took down state Sen. Ben Clark, a fairly conservative Democrat now running for Congress, in both 2016 and 2018, and in those two campaigns she was clearly in the left lane.
HD-50 (rural Orange County)
Matt Hughes vs. Renée Price
Hillsborough town commissioner Matt Hughes seems nice enough, but he’s also very obviously an establishment-friendly ladder-climber, and to be frank, those are the kinds of politicians who tend to haunt the left down the line. Renée Price, a county commissioner, is pretty progressive across the board, and probably isn’t going to be giving the left heartburn in a high-profile race a decade from now.
HD-56 (Chapel Hill)
Jonah Garson vs. Allen Buansi
Both Jonah Garson and Allen Buansi are striking familiar progressive notes and have fans across the ideological spectrum. Garson, however, seems to draw slightly more support from the local left. The stakes here are ultimately quite low.
HD-66 (Raleigh)
Sarah Crawford vs. Wesley Knott vs. Jeremiah Pierce
As a consequence of redistricting, state Sen. Sarah Crawford is dropping down to the state House. She faces local party activist Wesley Knott and teacher Jeremiah Pierce, both of whom are running capable campaigns in a race that doesn’t seem particularly ideological. Crawford appears to be the favorite.
HD-71 (Winston-Salem)
David Moore vs. Frederick Terry vs. Kanika Brown
Kanika Brown, a local community activist, challenged outgoing incumbent Evelyn Terry in 2020 and lost 65-35. This campaign seems set to go much better than her first; this time, Brown’s opponent is not four-term incumbent Evelyn Terry, but Evelyn’s husband Frederick Terry, a former member of the Winston-Salem City Council. David Moore, another local community activist, is also running.
HD-112 (Charlotte)
Tricia Cotham vs. Yolonda Holmes vs. Jay Holman (vs. Rodney W. Moore)
Former state Rep. Tricia Cotham is trying to get her old job back, having given it up in 2016 for an ill-fated challenge to U.S. Rep. Alma Adams. In her way are Yolonda Holmes, a school district employee involved in a number of community organizations, and Jay Holman, a local paralegal and military veteran who’s also deeply involved in local politics. Normally we’d give a huge edge to a former elected official, but Cotham is six years removed from office and Holmes’s endorsements from the state AFL-CIO and Lillian’s List (a state version of EMILY’s List) tell us that even in mainstream Democratic circles there’s a limited appetite for Cotham’s return.
Wake County DA
Lorrin Freeman (i) vs Damon Chetson
Longtime Raleigh-area District Attorney Lorrin Freeman, like many similarly-situated colleagues in other urban, Democratic jurisdictions, is due for her turn in the hot seat facing a reform-minded challenger. Damon Chetson, a former Republican and longtime defense attorney, is running on a platform of making the unequivocal commitments to reform that Freeman prefers to leave ambiguous. Chetson says he will never prosecute misdemeanor marijuana possession or seek the death penalty, while Freeman pointedly declines to make the same simple commitments. Chetson’s past party affiliation seems to be genuinely in the past, because the state AFL-CIO and the Working Families Party—neither being the type to embrace ex-Republicans over boring Democratic incumbents without good reason—have backed Chetson over Freeman.
Guilford County DA
Avery Michelle Crump (i) vs. Brenton Boyce
Challenger Brenton Boyce, a former public defender, seeks to oust DA Avery Michelle Crump. Boyce’s platform includes general appeals to reform and avoiding incarceration, as well as police accountability. It’s that last point where Crump is most vulnerable, thanks to her controversial decision not to charge a white off-duty police officer, Michael Shane Hill, who fatally shot an unarmed Black man, Fred Cox Jr., in the back, after a grand jury did not return an indictment against Hill for Cox’s killing.
Mecklenburg County DA
Spencer Merriweather (i) vs. Tim Emry
Like Lorrin Freeman and Avery Crump, Spencer Merriweather is an incumbent Democrat faced with one of the occupational hazards of being a DA in a left-leaning jurisdiction: a primary. Tim Emry is a defense attorney who promises to never seek the death penalty, avoid charging children as adults, and shift the DA’s office’s focus away from crimes of poverty, while Merriweather is a standard Democratic DA (which is generally a bad thing except when compared to Republican DAs.) However, while Boyce and Chetson’s campaigns have become projects of the activist communities in Greensboro and Raleigh, respectively, Emry is running a low-budget campaign and few expect him to win. Since no Republican even bothered to file in this county of over one million residents, either Merriweather or Emry will effectively win tonight.
Buncombe County DA
Todd Williams (i) vs. Doug Edwards vs. Courtney Booth (vs. Joe Bowman)
DA Todd Williams is being challenged from the left and the right. On his left, there’s public defender Courtney Booth, who wants more oversight of the police and an end to both cash bail and the death penalty; on the right, there’s former prosecutor Doug Edwards, who’s endorsed by the North Carolina Police Benevolent Association and unsurprisingly thinks Williams is too soft on crime.
Buncombe County Sheriff
Quentin Miller (i) vs. David Hurley
Incumbent Sheriff Quentin Miller is being challenged in the Democratic primary by David Hurley, who appears to be a far-right lunatic in the wrong party—speaking at anti-vaccine events, claiming the 2020 election was stolen, and explicitly aligning himself with the “constitutional sheriffs” movement, a far-right movement that advocates for sheriffs to try to exercise total control over their jurisdictions to uphold right-wing values in defiance of federal, state, or local law.
Quentin Miller could be somebody’s pet rock and we’d urge you to vote for him to stop Hurley if you live in Buncombe County, though we’re not sure Hurley needs stopping, he looks like he’s headed to an abysmal showing regardless. Vote for Miller anyway, just to make sure.
Durham County Sheriff
Clarence Birkhead (i) vs. Paul Martin
Paul Martin, a police officer with a long history of inflammatory crime predictions that managed to go too far for the sheriff’s department of the 90s and 00s, is running a sentient Facebook comment thread of a campaign. We’re going to be happy to see him lose.
Guilford County Sheriff
Danny Rogers (i) vs. Juan Monjaras vs. Therron J. “TJ” Phipps
Danny Rogers, in his first term as sheriff, has slow-walked reforms and overseen jail deaths, which he’s blamed on the victims. Therron J. “TJ” Phipps, who finished 15% behind Rogers in 2018, is no radical, but he has been campaigning on running a safer jail. Juan Monjaras wants the department to be more transparent and publicly available, and also wants the department to generally support immigrant communities.
Mecklenburg County Sheriff
Garry McFadden (i) vs. Gina Hicks vs. Marquis Robinson
Sheriff Garry McFadden is being challenged by two former department employees who prefer the old days of McFadden’s far more conservative predecessor, Irwin Carmichael. The local police union has endorsed Gina Hicks, and Marquis Robinson’s campaign has similar themes to hers.
Pennsylvania
PA-03
West Philadelphia, North Philadelphia, Center City
Dwight Evans (i) vs. Alexandra Hunt
Alexandra Hunt put up a surprisingly strong progressive campaign given the long odds ahead of any candidate taking on a Philadelphia institution like Dwight Evans, and especially given the headwinds of doing so when she knew the press was going to be more interested in her past work as a stripper than her current work as a clinical data manager. While Dwight Evans may have been calling in some favors towards the end of the campaign, you get the sense it’s more about him wanting to demonstrate strength with a resounding victory than any actual worry Hunt could win. That’s also evidenced by the lack of any interest by centrist groups to attack her or progressive groups to boost her, despite the very real ideological stakes at play. Things may have gone differently had Hunt run in the neighboring PA-02 against Brendan Boyle, but in PA-03, where a majority of voters are Black, we have a hard time envisioning a white candidate like Hunt defeating an uncontroversial Black incumbent like Evans.
SD-08 (West Philadelphia, some Delaware County)
Anthony Williams (i) vs. Paul Prescod
There’s only one interesting state senate primary in Pennsylvania, but it’s interesting enough for the entire state. Anthony Williams has been in the state legislature for over 3 decades, and ran a competitive campaign for mayor in 2015. He’s an institution in West Philadelphia. Challenging that institution is Paul Prescod, a public school teacher backed by a cadre of activist groups: Reclaim Philadelphia, fresh off their 2021 victories for reformist criminal justice candidates; DSA, fresh off Nikil Saval and Rick Krajewski’s 2020 victories against the Philly machine; and the Working Families Party, fresh off its 2019 victory in electing the first third party candidate to City Council. Prescod’s work as a teacher is especially relevant given one of Williams’s most glaring vulnerabilities: his support of charter schools. The race has increasingly fallen along these lines: recently, Republican charter school millionaire Jeff Yass dropped a five-figure contribution into Williams’s account, while teachers’ unions endorsed Prescod and the Philadelphia Inquirer (the city’s largest newspaper) cited charter schools as their reason for endorsing Prescod over the incumbent. Williams, who should theoretically be fresh at campaigning after a pair of mayoral campaigns, seems entirely unprepared for this challenge, focusing on where Prescod lives, questioning whether Prescod (the son of a Barbadian immigrant) is Black enough, and just generally whining about having a challenge at all. Williams runs a powerful political network and has three decades of trust behind him, but if he wins it won’t be because he had a better message.
HD-10 (West Philadelphia)
Amen Brown (i) vs. Sajda Blackwell vs. Cass Green
Amen Brown is famous for two things: leading the tough-on-crime charge to impose mandatory minimum sentences, and a trail of fraud (including not paying income taxes while buying luxury cars, and being part of a scam to sign a dead man’s property over to Brown for $15,000, something which he was actually charged by the DA for.) Brown only got to the House in 2020, narrowly unseating a half-term incumbent. His opponents are Sajda Blackwell, who somehow has support of the police in this race instead of Brown, and Cass Green, a progressive activist who is running on healthcare, housing, and education, as well as, very pointedly, abolishing mandatory minimums. She has the support of progressive Philly politicians, several labor unions including powerful AFT and SEIU chapters. She may benefit from a better district—redistricting took out many of Brown’s strongest neighborhoods to the west and replaced them with students near Drexel and even a few precincts of Central Philly.
HD-19 (Downtown Pittsburgh)
Aerion Abney (i) vs. Glenn Grayson
When Jake Wheatley left the state House to take a job as newly-elected Pittsburgh Mayor Ed Gainey’s chief of staff, the local party got to pick a replacement, as is standard procedure in Pennsylvania special elections. But when the assembled members of the local Democratic committee voted whether to tap social worker Aerion Abney or the Rev. Glenn Grayson to fill Wheatley’s seat, there was a minor hitch: the vote was a tie. Abney ended up being selected by random drawing. Grayson, understandably, was not about to end his campaign for a full term because Abney’s name was picked “from an empty margarine container.” But Abney is an incumbent now, if only by pure chance, so he’s favored in his rematch with Grayson—the first time either candidate will face Democratic primary voters rather than a local party committee.
HD-20 (North Hills Pittsburgh suburbs)
Emily Kinkead (i) vs. Nick Mastros
Well, this had to happen. An even vaguely progressive woman beats a machine candidate? You bet your ass that the Allegheny County Democratic Committee is going to put up a conservative challenge to her. And that challenger is naturally going to be endorsed by the building trades and police unions. It is a sign of progress, or perhaps just the obvious long-shot nature of Nick Mastros’s campaign, that few of the big unions wanted to join in. It’s also a sign of progress that he isn’t willing to really outline many differences between himself and progressive incumbent Emily Kinkead. She is, naturally, a strong favorite today.
HD-22 (Allentown)
Saeed Georges vs. Joshua Siegel
This new, majority-Hispanic district in Allentown was supposed to have a Hispanic candidate on the ballot, but one successful petition challenge later, there are none. There is still an exciting contest between the remaining candidates. Progressive Allentown City Councilmember Joshua Siegel is running after two years fighting against the inertia of local politics, usually at the side of fellow Councilmember Ce Ce Gerlach, who ran for mayor last year. His opponent, Saeed Georges, has connections to the city’s establishment, including the mayor, and a worrying tendency to dodge the issues that any Democrat should be strong on in a blue district, for instance saying that gun laws only need “tweaks” and trying not to talk about abortion.
HD-24 (Central Pittsburgh)
Martell Covington (i) vs. La'Tasha Mayes vs. Randall Taylor
Martell Covington was appointed by the party just a few months ago to replace newly-elected mayor Ed Gainey. It’s early yet as far as figuring out his politics goes, but he seems like a pretty typical establishment politician for Pittsburgh. Randall Taylor, who ran a surprisingly spirited independent campaign for City Council in 2019, is running too, but Covington’s main opponent is La'Tasha Mayes. Mayes, a longtime organizer and nonprofit leader for reproductive rights and the healthcare of Black women, took second place to Covington in the party convention, and is now running with the support of Planned Parenthood (as well as a few other organizations like Sunrise). Notably, if Summer Lee is elected to Congress, this race could decide whether Western PA sends any Black women to Harrisburg.
HD-34 (Eastern Pittsburgh suburbs)
Summer Lee (i) vs. Abigail Salisbury
Summer Lee is also running for reelection to the state House; since she’s flattened two machine-backed challengers before, it’s hard to see Swissvale Councilor Abigail Salisbury faring much better even with all the damage done by attack ads in the congressional race. It’s not entirely out of the question, though: multiple Democratic delegates in Virginia tried to run for reelection and higher office at the same time in 2021, and two (Lee Carter and Mark Levine) lost their delegate seats as a result because Democratic primary voters preferred someone more locally focused. Summer Lee is not Lee Carter or Mark Levine, though.
HD-36 (Pittsburgh South Hills)
Jessica Benham (i) vs. Stephanie Fox
Jessica Benham is one of the Pittsburgh left’s success stories. While a grad student at the University of Pittsburgh, Benham, who was already an experienced disability rights activist, got involved in the effort to unionize the grad student workforce, then turned around and announced her intent to challenge socially conservative state Rep. Harry Readshaw in 2020. Once it became apparent that Benham was for real, Readshaw called it quits, and Benham easily dispatched the pair of machine-backed candidates who ran in his place. She’s also a trailblazer: the first out queer woman and first autistic person to serve in the Pennsylvania legislature, and only the third openly autistic state legislator in the entire country (after New York Democrat Yuh-Line Niou, first elected in 2016, and Texas Republican Briscoe Cain, who revealed his diagnosis in 2019 and was subsequently reelected.)
Naturally, a history-making young, queer, autistic woman is the Allegheny County Democratic Committee’s worst nightmare. (They literally endorsed a Trump supporter over Benham in 2020, which is why there were two machine candidates—the machine’s first choice, the Trump supporter, never took off with voters for reasons obvious to everyone but them.) In 2022, the machine was smart enough to avoid finding a Trump supporter, but former Brentwood councilor Stephanie Fox probably wasn’t their first choice—she dropped down to the state House race after her congressional campaign went nowhere.
Benham’s reelection will be a test of the Pittsburgh left’s staying power on relatively difficult turf: somewhat conservative white working-class and middle-class neighborhoods in the South Hills of Pittsburgh. It’ll also be a test of whether the Allegheny County Democratic Committee is anything to fear anymore.
HD-49 (Lancaster)
Janet Diaz vs. Ismael Smith-Wade-El
Janet Diaz was a surprise progressive success in a 2020 state Senate primary for a district covering Lancaster, though she lost the very uphill battle for general election. And yet, she’s backed into a moderate posture in this race thanks to the presence of Lancaster City Council President Ismael Smith-Wade-El. Often affectionately known as Izzy, Smith-Wade-El is the son of a well-known activist in Lancaster, now deceased. He has high name recognition, and had already begun a campaign against incumbent Michael Sturla before redistricting split the city into two districts. Faced with this reality, and the way that progressive groups like the Working Families Party and Lancaster Stands Up flocked to Izzy, she resorted to the tried and true tactic of red-baiting, calling the entire Lancaster Stands Up organization Bolshevist in a mailer—a clear sign of a confident candidate. Diaz benefits from being the only Hispanic candidate in a district drawn to elect the Hispanic community’s candidate of choice, but she’s otherwise out on a political island.
HD-54 (Northern Philadelphia suburbs)
Rochelle Culbreath vs. Greg Scott
Longtime Norristown Borough President Rochelle Culbreath has more establishment and labor support than former Montgomery County Magisterial District Court Judge Greg Scott, as well as a more progressive platform (she supports Medicare for All, for instance). But what was otherwise a sleepy campaign was rocked a few days ago by Culbreath’s decision to publish to her website a list of campaign law violations she alleges Scott committed, followed by Scott’s campaign issuing a cease-and-desist *the day before the election*. We won’t know exactly what happened here until after the votes are counted.
HD-95 (Lancaster)
Michael Sturla (i) vs. Dana Hamp Gulick
As mentioned in HD-49, Michael Sturla was nearly about to face the first primary challenge of his 32-year career in the state House. Sturla’s always had a talent for running his mouth—he gave the worst possible reasons for opposing fracking expansion in 2011 when he said it leads to “spread of sexually transmitted disease amongst the womenfolk”—but when he says things like “We don’t need more affordable housing in the city” on the campaign trail, you have to wonder if those 32 years totally killed his campaigning ability, which would be good news for his challenger Dana Hamp Gulick, who was the Democratic nominee for a Republican-leaning state house district in 2020. Sturla’s tried to raise the specter of this district being more suburban than city as a general election concern, and thus reason to reject the more progressive policies of Hamp Gulick (who supports a fracking moratorium while Sturla doesn’t, ironically enough.) But at Clinton+17, Biden+22, that’s laughable. Hamp Gulick is supported by progressive groups including WFP and Lancaster Stands Up.
HD-103 (Harrisburg)
Patty Kim (i) vs. Heather MacDonald
Patty Kim is an otherwise dependable Democrat who, for some reason, voted to turn the state’s pensions into 401(k)s, but doesn’t seem to have lost union support over it. She’s being challenged by Heather MacDonald, an activist from the suburbs who counts among her supporters (who she calls the #MacPack) Gisele Fetterman, wife of Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, and former California Rep. Katie Hill. This race is more about temperament than issues, with MacDonald’s campaign pitch centering on “commitment” and courage (“Political courage is a currency,” she says on her website). MacDonald may wind up winning the Cumberland County portion of the district, but Kim should clean up in the city and win.
HD-129 (Reading)
Johanny Cepeda-Freytiz vs. Mark Detterline
Reading City Councilwoman Johanny Cepeda-Freytiz and Reading School Board member Mark Detterline are both pretty vague on policy. This district was drawn to increase Latino representation in the Reading area, which Cepeda-Freytiz cited as a reason for running.
HD-134 (Allentown)
Peter Schweyer (i) vs. Enid Santiago
Demographics almost sank state Rep. Peter Schweyer in 2020, when progressive Enid Santiago was just 55 votes shy of beating him in the primary in a district then numbered the 22nd. Schweyer is non-Hispanic white, like all of Allentown’s state representatives—even though the city is majority-Hispanic. And Schweyer’s district takes in the city’s most heavily Hispanic neighborhoods. Santiago is back for a rematch; given how close the first Schweyer-Santiago race was, we’re loath to declare either candidate favored.
HD-159 (Delaware County)
Brian Kirkland (i) vs. Carol Kazeem
State Rep. Brian Kirkland is a nepotism case—he’s the nephew of his predecessor Thaddeus Kirkland, who handed the seat to him so he could become mayor of the city of Chester. Challenger Carol Kazeem is backed by the Working Families Party, the Pennsylvania State Education Association (the state’s largest teachers’ union), and the PSEA union local representing teachers in Chester-area schools. It’s an easy choice.
HD-166 (Haverford, western Philadelphia suburbs)
Greg Vitali (i) vs. David Brown
State Rep. Greg Vitali has been around since the early 90s, generally on the more progressive side of issues. But for some reason, an odd collection of power players from left to establishment have decided they’re tired of him. The Working Families Party and the Delaware County Democratic Committee are both behind David Brown, who’s running as a progressive and who was deeply involved in Delaware County Democrats’ successful effort to finally take control of county government in 2019. Organized labor has stuck with Vitali, but the sheer novelty of a challenger backed by WFP and the local party is too much for us to bet against.
HD-173 (Northeast Philadelphia)
Patrick Gallagher vs. Peter McDermott
Patrick Gallagher, the chief of staff to outgoing state Rep. Mike Driscoll, is an obvious favorite with the support of his boss as well as the party machinery. Teacher and Democratic ward leader Peter McDermott is the only alternative voters will have in the primary—or at all, unless Republicans manage to nominate a candidate by write-in.
HD-182 (Central Philadelphia)
Deja Alvarez vs. Will Gross vs. Jonathan Lovitz vs. Benjamin Waxman
There are so few legitimately multi-way primaries this cycle, and here we have a 4-way contest. This district contains the city’s gayborhood, and after current rep Brian Sims left to run for LG, there have been calls to keep LGBTQ representation in this district. That may mean Jonathan Lovitz, well-funded president of the LGBT Chamber of Commerce. But “Chamber of Commerce” matters just as much as anything else in that title—he is painfully moderate. It could also mean Deja Alvarez, a trans woman serving on the Philadelphia Police LGBTQ Liaison Committee and previously was in the Philadelphia Office of LGBT Affairs. She carries Sims’s endorsement, though not the party’s. That went to Ben Waxman, a journalist, Ward 8 Committee member, and former employee of Larry Krasner’s. His odd fusion of progressive and establishment connections creates an endorsement page that could mystify. Will Gross is also running as a progressive, and probably has less chance to win, but he does have a chance.
HD-184 (Southeast Philadelphia)
Elizabeth Fiedler (i) vs. Michael Giangiordano
State Rep. Elizabeth Fiedler was first elected to represent South Philly in 2018 with the enthusiastic support of Philly DSA, of which she is a member. Since then, Philly DSA has proved Fiedler was no fluke, helping to send Nikil Saval and Rick Krajewski to Harrisburg alongside her. Of course, this couldn’t go unpunished by local Democrats, so they found local realtor Michael Giangiordano without bothering to check his social media for Trump-curious content. Oops!
Giangiordano, who has the endorsement of the Philadelphia Democratic City Committee, can’t be counted out entirely, but we would be stunned if he won.
HD-188 (Central Philadelphia)
Rick Krajewski (i) vs. James Wright
DSA-backed activist Rick Krajewski walloped incumbent state Rep. James Roebuck 46.5-27 in 2020, and his opponent this time is James Wright, a machine soldier who is impressively evasive on policy questions even for a candidate in a state House race. Wright is backed by Jeff Yass, the same Republican charter school billionaire bankrolling Anthony Williams in an overlapping West Philadelphia district; Yass’s largesse accounts for the majority of Wright’s campaign budget.
In case you were wondering, yes, the Philadelphia Democratic City Committee endorsed Wright over Krajewski.
HD-194 (Northwest Philadelphia and Montgomery County)
Pamela DeLissio (i) vs. Tarik Khan
Nurse Tarik Khan is giving state Rep. Pam DeLissio her first contested primary since 2014, and Khan’s campaign looks strong enough that this could also be DeLissio’s last primary. Khan, who personally vaccinated many Philadelphians both at vaccination sites and through house calls he made on his own time, is backed by Reclaim Philadelphia and other progressive groups—but also by multiple Democratic ward organizations, the Pennsylvania AFL-CIO, and many of Philadelphia’s politically active union locals.
HD-200 (Northwest Philadelphia)
Isabella Fitzgerald (i) vs. Chris Rabb (i)
Chris Rabb and Isabella Fitzgerald got double-bunked in redistricting, and the party establishment wasn’t exactly upset about it—Rabb, a progressive, was always a little too happy to buck the party establishment for their tastes, and they never really got over Rabb’s humiliating defeat of an incumbent state representative in 2016’s primary. Isabella Fitzgerald, a more moderate Democrat, is the choice of many of the city’s elected officials. Rabb is the better choice by far.
HD-201 (Northwest Philadelphia)
Stephen Kinsey (i) vs. Andre Carroll
Stephen Kinsey is a quiet backbencher, prone to bipartisanship, though that’s understandable given his chamber is GOP-controlled, and he lacks any particularly bad stances on the issues. You could do a lot worse, but in Philadelphia you could also do a lot better—like, for instance, Andre Carroll. Carroll, a gay man who has been involved in progressive politics including volunteering for the Bernie and Krasner campaigns, as well as managing the campaign of a Working Families Party candidate for Council, has the support of the city’s progressive organizations as he runs for state House on a standard progressive platform.
HD-203 (Near Northeast Philadelphia)
Anthony Bellmon vs. Yusuf Jackson vs. Heather Miller
Establishment-oriented congressional staffer Anthony Bellmon is a clear favorite over retired police officer Yusuf Jackson, who’s running to his right, and community activist Heather Miller.