8/2 Primary Preview Part I
Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, and Ohio
Six states vote today; to help a little bit with readability we’re splitting the day into two previews. First are four Midwestern states: Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, and Ohio. Our second preview will move west, covering Arizona and Washington state.
Kansas
Kansas also has a ballot measure which would amend the state constitution to allow the legislature to regulate abortion; since Kansas’s state legislature is Republican-dominated and will remain so for the foreseeable future, the proposed amendment would almost certainly result in Kansas banning abortion. Before worrying about anything else in Kansas, root for Kansas’s abortion amendment to fail.
HD-35 (Northeast Kansas City)
Nelson Gabriel vs. Marvin Robinson II
There’s little information on this race, but what exists isn’t encouraging. Nelson Gabriel supports anti-trans legislation, while Marvin Robinson II has little campaign presence, and no indication of what he supports or doesn’t.
HD-36 (Northwest Kansas City)
JoAnne Gilstrap vs. Lynn Melton
Outgoing incumbent Kathy Wolfe Moore endorsed Lynn Melton, which is unfortunate, as Melton is a hard conservative on criminal justice issues, repeatedly posting thin Blue Line images on Facebook and supporting the conservative challenger to her county’s DA. Her only opponent is former Republican JoAnne Gilstrap, wife of former Republican state Sen. Mark Gilstrap.
HD-37 (Central Kansas City)
Aaron Coleman (i) vs. Melissa Oropeza vs. Faith Rivera
Aaron Coleman is about as notorious as a member of Kansas State House can get. After unseating a longtime incumbent as an open socialist, his middle school past of bullying harassment and revenge porn came to light. Though the details were horrific, it looked like he was going to survive the controversy by excusing the behavior as something he’d grown out of… until an ex-girlfriend came forward to say he’d been physically abusive and threatened to kill her less than a year before running for office. Democrats were ready to kick him out of the House, but Republicans, who control the body, decided to keep him. Then, over the course of one year, he was handed a restraining order for harassing an ex-campaign worker of his opponent, banned from Kansas Department of Labor for trying to fight a security guard (he denies this), arrested for attacking multiple family members, and then arrested again for a DUI. This man should not be in government.
Either of his opponents would be an improvement (and both are likely to beat him in the primary), but Faith Rivera, a community activist previously involved with Our Revolution, is the superior of the two, while Melissa Oropeza, who has the backing of many politicians and labor unions in the area, is more likely to win.
HD-53 (Western Topeka)
Joe Cheray vs. Kirk Haskins
Incumbent Jim Gartner is retiring, and endorsing former banker and current Baker University administrator Kirk Haskins to succeed him. Haskins seems like your typical moderate on most issues, but is particularly out of step with the party when it comes to his anti-choice stance. Kansas Democratic Disability Caucus chair Joe Cheray is vocally progressive, especially when it comes to healthcare, and has been campaigning against the ballot measure that would ban abortion in Kansas alongside campaigning for her own race.
HD-55 (Downtown Topeka)
Joshua Luttrell vs. Tobias Schlingensiepen
Minister Tobias Schlingensiepen is a moderate supported by the Topeka establishment, including the mayor. He also previously ran for Congress and state senate as the Democratic nominee. Attorney Joshua Luttrell is a more progressive candidate running a longshot campaign, though with districts this small, getting elected doesn’t always require money.
Michigan
MI-11 (Northern Detroit suburbs)
Andy Levin (i) vs. Haley Stevens (i)
Andy Levin is the congressional incumbent in the most danger tonight. While we are, broadly, supportive of political dynasties ending, it would be such a shame to lose Andy Levin. Levin isn’t quite a Squad member, but he is a consistently progressive member of Congress who has taken unusually good stances on many issues, including on Israel/Palestine, which is why AIPAC has spent over $4 million to get rid of him. Poor Andy was dealt such a tough hand: redistricting put him in a district that was mostly new to him, and his fellow Rep. Haley Stevens, a New Democrat with a much more moderate policy outlook, decided to move and run in MI-11 instead, a district that, though she didn’t live in it, she represents a little more of than Levin. As a corporate-friendly swing district rep, she walked into the race with more money than Levin, and more donor connections to get even more money.
That has led to Levin getting simply hammered by ads. In addition to the $4.2 million from AIPAC, Stevens has spent $3.4 million, and EMILY’s List has spent $3.2 million. It’s honestly impressive that Levin is even in the game at all after facing down $11 million. Progressives have attempted to rally around Levin, but it’s hard against that wall of money. Organized labor likes Levin, but they haven’t put up a concerted effort to renominate him like we’d hoped. The only publicly available polling shows Stevens winning in a blowout, but the Levin campaign claims their polling shows a virtual tie. We shall find out tonight who was right.
MI-12 (NW Detroit and inner suburbs, inc. Dearborn)
Rashida Tlaib (i) vs. Kelly Garrett vs. Shanelle Jackson vs. Janice Winfrey
Rashida Tlaib makes some people very, very angry: police boosters, hardline supporters of Israel's brutality towards Palestinians, Detroit machine bosses upset she didn't come up through their network, and extremely online centrists, to name a few. They'd all love to get rid of her, but Tlaib isn't going anywhere easily. Last year, she faced former Detroit City Council President and momentary Congresswoman Brenda Jones. Tlaib had only narrowly managed to outpace Jones the 2018 election, but demolished her 66-34 in the rematch. On paper, her main opponent this year, Detroit City Clerk Janice Winfrey, is similar to Jones. Both are longtime fixtures of Detroit politics who are making Black representation a central argument of their candidacy, and both fault Tlaib for her bombastic style. Winfrey brings a few things to the table Jones didn't: she's been a somewhat more visible public figure than Jones, hasn't publicly praised Louis Farrakhan, and, perhaps most importantly, she can bring some money into the mix. While Jones raised almost nothing and ran a campaign that was strictly retail and endorsements, Winfrey has actually raised a couple hundred thousand dollars. On top of that is the Urban Empowerment PAC. The PAC is a project of Bakari Sellers and funded by a few rich donors, some of them Republican. While the PAC is not technically a single-election organization, in the group's founding announcement they declared that beating Tlaib was their first priority, and pledged $1 million to make that happen, while their activity in other primaries has been limited to a perfunctory round or two of mailers in a few races.
Despite that help, Winfrey is facing steeper odds than Jones ever did. An important factor in why is redistricting. Though the mapmakers unfortunately removed Tlaib's original base (and home) in Southwest Detroit, they also added in Dearborn, the Arab capital of America, where Tlaib is expected to do very well. The district was also just generally shifted further into the suburbs, making Detroit's contribution to the voter pool comparatively smaller, an obvious problem for a politician like Winfrey with such a Detroit-centric appeal. Winfrey also brings personal weaknesses with her—it's hard to make a competency argument when your office keeps making the news for public examples of incompetence. She’s a divisive politician, even within Detroit. She nearly lost reelection in 2020 to a first-time candidate, Garlin Gilchrist, who is now the lieutenant governor. Further complicating things is the presence of other non-Tlaib candidates on the ballot.
Former state Rep. Shanelle Jackson actually announced before Winfrey, and cuts into her Detroit base. Her overtures for outside help eventually fell flat when Winfrey got those honors instead, but she deserves special recognition for shamelessness. By far the two biggest spenders in Democratic primaries this cycle are PACs funded by a cryptocurrency billionaire, and PACs supporting the current Israeli government’s policy towards Palestine; Jackson very transparently appealed for both to swoop in and buy her this seat. Jackson used to have a special message pop up when you visited her website saying she supports cryptocurrency; the message now says she will “stand with America’s ally, Israel”. Treasure this gem of a campaign while it’s around—lobbyists for payday lenders don't run in Democratic primaries too often.
Kelly Garrett is the mayor of Lathrup Village, a tiny suburb of 4,000. However, she is politically connected through her family, and is the only candidate to hail from Oakland County, which Tlaib has never represented so far. Though we think it's a little unfair in the case of Southfield and Lathrup, Oakland County does have a more moderate reputation, and some think that those voters may prefer one of their own to a controversial Detroiter. Garrett has also been more successful than Jackson at attracting the business community, specifically the Michigan Bankers Association and the Michigan Farm Bureau, touting the endorsements of both on her website. Garrett, improbably, decided to self-fund her campaign $250,000, to supplement the almost nothing she was raising otherwise, and has started airing TV ads. She likes to bring up how she doesn’t take a salary at her current job, something that makes more sense given she’s wealthy enough to drop a quarter million on a doomed campaign.
Garret and Jackson may pick up significant support or they may not (though we have to imagine Garrett will do better than Jackson no matter their cumulative total), but whatever they get likely comes from Winfrey, not Tlaib. All three candidates, but especially Winfrey and Garrett, have been attacking Tlaib over her support of defunding the police. Janice Winfrey’s website has a pithy encapsulation of her attitude towards police reform: “Janice supports more police funding – not less. And better training for our police.” Garrett, meanwhile, mentioned it as the top problem she has with Tlaib’s tenure. Policing was also the subject of the main ad Urban Empowerment PAC has been running attacking Tlaib.
Could Tlaib lose? Anything’s possible. But she’s a remarkably talented politician, and with weakened opponents fighting over the limited pool of voters opposed to her, signs point to her being reelected, and easily.
MI-13 (Detroit)
John Conyers III vs. Sherry Gay-Dagnogo vs. Michael Griffie vs. Adam Hollier vs. Sharon McPhail vs. Sam Riddle vs. Portia Roberson vs. Lorrie Rutledge vs. Shri Thanedar
This is the kind of overstuffed race where it’s best to just introduce the candidates in list form, since paragraphs would be nigh-unreadable:
Top tier
Adam Hollier: Adam Hollier is a first-term state senator from Detroit. There’s no single “Detroit establishment” choice in this race, but he comes closest to it. Mayor Mike Duggan has given his support to Hollier, as has a consortium of Black political leaders who want to ensure Detroit has Black representation in the next Congress. That’s all fine—it’s his other allies who cause concern. Hollier is backed by an all-star team of all the awful super PACs we’ve seen this year: United Democracy Project ($4.3 million), Protect Our Future ($1.1 million), DMFI ($1.0 million), and Web3 Forward ($412,000). Mainstream Democrats PAC would have been bingo. While Hollier is far from the worst candidate in this race, no one puts together that kind of coalition unless they’re planning on sucking in Congress.
Portia Roberson: Roberson doesn’t currently hold elected office, though she does have an appointed position at the Michigan Human Rights Commission. Roberson was a late entrant into the top tier of this race. Though she became the choice of outgoing Rep. Brenda Lawrence and the 13th District Democratic Organization early on, it didn’t look like that was translating into real support until the last few weeks, where she found herself endorsed by the Detroit Free Press and nearly tied for first in the election’s only recent public poll. Roberson isn’t trying to pass herself off as a progressive, but, given the obvious problems with the other two frontrunners, she’s the best realistic outcome.
Shri Thanedar: Thanedar is the bad outcome—a wealthy self-funder with no real allegiance to the Democratic Party and some real questionable ethics. Here’s what we had to say about him when he first kicked off his congressional run:
Shri Thanedar is one of those characters you don’t forget. Thanedar was a totally unknown pharma millionaire who burst onto the Michigan political scene by desperately turning the money hose everywhere he could in an attempt to become governor. Despite claiming to be “the most progressive Democrat running for governor”, no one in Michigan actually bought that, especially given his animal-murdering corporate past, and the presence of Abdul El-Sayed in the race, the candidate who all the progressive groups were actually excited about. Mid-campaign revelations that he enthusiastically attended a Marco Rubio rally in 2016 were surprising but not shocking given how obvious a political act this was for him. Thanedar came in third with 18%, doing best near Detroit, possibly because he’d been secretly buying off local radio hosts during the primary. It’s hard to describe Shri’s odd stage presence, his deluge of ads, or how damn weird that whole campaign was. (If you don’t have the phrase "Shri is me" lodged permanently in your brain, consider yourself lucky).
In 2020, he set his sights lower, running for an open state house seat in Detroit. The local establishment, figuring there was no reason to piss off the rich guy over a single house seat, put up only half-hearted opposition to him, and he won 35% to 20%. He's done little of note with his year in the House, except, evidently, plan a run for Congress. Thanedar first made noises about challenging Tlaib in November but no one took that bluster too seriously. Until now.
He’s spent at least $4 million of his own money on the race since then, and has high name recognition after his gubernatorial run. Normally, someone like Shri, who can buy himself some support but is off-putting to a majority of voters, would be easy to dismiss. But in a field this wide-open, he could win. The obvious parallel is to Peter Franchot in the Maryland gubernatorial race. Sure, he led all the polls, but he had a ceiling and all the undecideds went elsewhere. Where that analogy breaks down is that almost none of the votes went to minor candidates, so the threshold for Franchot to win was in the 30s. That’s looking less likely here, even if Shri is still the most polarizing candidate and has been hit with a lot of negative ads from VoteVets and United Democracy Project.
Longshots
John Conyers III: Conyers missed his chance in 2018, when John Conyers Jr., after being forced out of the House for sexual harassment, endorsed his son to succeed him, only for John III to fuck up his ballot signatures so badly he got kicked off the ballot twice. John III is giving it another shot, running on his family name and little else. He has a more progressive platform than you would expect from a failson running on his family’s name, and has been endorsed by Jesse Jackson.
Sharon McPhail: Sharon McPhail came relatively close to getting elected mayor in the 90s, and spent a term on the City Council in the early 2000s. She entered the race looking strong, with high polling numbers and an endorsement from the Michigan Democratic Party Black Caucus. McPhail's campaign was one big nostalgia trip, both in the sense that she doesn't seem to have updated her politics since she exited office, and that nostalgia was her main selling point. After other candidates got better known, she fell to the middle of the pack.
Also-rans:
Sherry Gay-Dagnogo: Gay-Dagnogo is a former state rep who is…fine. She exists, we guess. She’s just utterly failed to stand out in a field this size, and has no money.
Michael Griffie: Griffie is a young guy in the nonprofit world that is fine on every technical level, and seems to have impressed a few people in Detroit politics, which we suspect was the goal here: setting himself up for a more attainable office in the next couple cycles.
Sam Riddle: Riddle was a political consultant fresh out of a long stint in prison for some audacious political corruption.
Lorrie Rutledge: who?
SD-01 (Southwest Detroit and suburbs)
Erika Geiss (i) vs. Shellee Brooks vs. Frank Liberati vs. Ricardo Moore vs. Brenda Karen Sanders vs. Carl Schwartz
Erika Geiss got a raw deal in redistricting. The district that she easily won in 2018 was fully suburban, but it got torn to shreds in the new map. Now she’s in a district that’s mostly Detroit, and there are a bevy of challengers who think she’s vulnerable now. Frank Liberati, a former state rep and Italian deli owner (he’s really running with the Italian thing), and Detroit Police Commissioner Ricardo Moore look like the two most credible threats.
SD-02 (Dearborn and Detroit)
Sylvia Santana (i) vs. Maurice Sanders
Maurice Sanders is a paper candidate who hasn't spent any money or responded to press inquiries. Incumbent Sylvia Santana should win easily.
SD-03 (East Side of Detroit and suburbs)
Stephanie Chang (i) vs. Toinu Reeves
Toinu Reeves wants to cut WIGS (Wasteful Ineffective Government Spending, his own acronym) and usher in “collective capitalism,” while Stephanie Chang is a fine legislator who should easily defeat him.
SD-05 (Detroit suburbs of Canton, Westland, Inkster, Garden City, and part of Livonia)
Dayna Polehanki (i) vs. Velma Jean Overman
Dayna Polehanki flipped a Republican state Senate seat in the outer Detroit suburbs in 2018, but redistricting moved her eastward, adding more working-class inner suburbs like Inkster and Westland. Polehanki shouldn’t have much trouble in her new constituency, but local pastor Velma Jean Overman claims endorsements from a handful of local elected officials and Rashida Tlaib.
SD-06 (NW Detroit and suburbs)
Vicki Barnett vs. Darryl Brown vs. Mary Cavanagh
Betty Jean Alexander was a complete unknown when she unseated state Sen. David Knezek in 2018. After four years in office, it was an amateur mistake that ended her tenure: incorrect campaign finance documents got her disqualified from the ballot, leaving a wide-open race to succeed her with candidates who thought they were challenging an incumbent. Vicki Barnett, the mayor of Farmington Hills, is a former state rep and seems to be the establishment pick here; state Rep. Mary Cavanagh is a dynasty case with the backing of the local Chamber of Commerce, but looming larger in voters’ minds might be Cavanagh’s DUI arrest this February. Darryl Brown, who served one term on Detroit’s elected Board of Police Commissioners (a civilian oversight board), is the only Black candidate and the only Detroit candidate, so if Cavanagh and Barnett split the white suburban vote badly enough, a strong performance in Detroit could let him scrape past Barnett, who seems like the candidate to beat.
SD-07 (Pontiac, Southfield, Oakland County suburbs)
Jeremy Moss (i) vs. Ryan Foster
Jeremy Moss is a standard Democrat seeking another term in a redesigned district stretching from the northwestern fringe of Detroit to suburbs north of Pontiac. Ex-cop Ryan Foster favors abortion restrictions and is generally running to Moss’s right; thankfully, he seems headed for a decisive loss.
SD-08 (Northern Detroit and suburbs)
Marshall Bullock (i) vs. Mallory McMorrow (i)
Mallory McMorrow was probably favored for this seat from the moment it was drawn. While a white suburban politician might struggle in a Detroit-based district under most circumstances, this district includes more suburbs than Detroit, and the suburbs it includes are some of Detroit’s bluest, so they won’t be easily outvoted by the almost uniformly Democratic city. McMorrow already represents more of this district than her opponent, Detroit Sen. Marshall Bullock. But McMorrow went and got herself another advantage just to make sure: national fame. After one of her Republican colleagues used the right’s anti-LGBT “groomer” rhetoric to attack McMorrow, McMorrow—in her own words “a straight, white, Christian, married suburban mom”—gave a fiery, emotional speech defending herself and rebuking the violent anti-LGBT bigotry underlying right-wing attacks on public schools. Video of the speech went viral almost instantly, and more than $1 million in grassroots donations poured in from around the country. You almost have to feel bad for Bullock, who got dealt a crappy hand in redistricting to begin with.
SD-27 (Flint)
John Cherry vs. David Davenport vs. Monica Galloway vs. Bill Swanson
State Rep. John Cherry is a clear favorite for Flint’s state Senate seat, which is open thanks to term limits. In his way is former Flint City Council President Monica Galloway—who would be a lot more formidable if she wasn’t fresh off an unexpected reelection defeat in 2021.
HD-01 (Southeast Detroit)
Tyrone Carter (i) vs. Jermaine Tobey
Jermaine Tobey is a perennial candidate; Tyrone Carter is a safe bet for another term.
HD-03 (Detroit and Dearborn)
Alabas Farhat vs. Samraa Luqman vs. Khalil Othman
Wayne County government staffer Alabas Farhat is a clear favorite here, but he did somehow lose the special election primary for an overlapping seat to an ex-Republican perennial candidate, so environmental activist Samraa Luqman could catch him napping again.
HD-04 (West End Detroit, some Dearborn)
Karen Whitsett (i) vs. Gus Tarraf vs. Lori Turner
Karen Whitsett promoted hydroxychloroquine and credited it for saving her as she battled COVID (it most certainly did not, because hydroxychloroquine does not treat COVID.) That was why we rooted for her to lose two years ago, when she held on with a plurality. This time she has fewer opponents; maybe one of them, probably Gus Tarraf, can capitalize on her nuttiness and the new shape of the district to belatedly bring down a purveyor of dangerous COVID misinformation.
HD-05 (Strip from Detroit far into suburbs)
Reggie Davis vs. Steele Hughes vs. Ksenia Milstein vs. Natalie Price vs. Michelle Wooddell
Michelle Wooddell started off the election season by campaigning against Rashida Tlaib from the right, so she constitutes the bad outcome here. As for the good, it’s probably Steele Hughes, the constituent services director for state Rep. Mary Cavanagh, who is supported by some local progressive members of the delegation. Also running as a progressive is Berkley City (pop. 15,000) Councilmember Natalie Price, who may be more ideologically similar to Davis than anyone else, but hails from the suburbs and thus will probably be competing mostly with Wooddell for votes. Reggie Davis is a politically connected radio host who can’t stop losing. Maybe 4th time’s the charm for him? Like Hughes, he’s a Detroiter.
HD-06 (Strip from Detroit almost as far into suburbs)
Regina Weiss (i) vs. Danielle C. Hall vs. Myya Jones vs. Mark Murphy
The redistricting commission’s bizarre choice to create a bunch of strip-shaped districts from Detroit to the suburbs mostly inconvenienced Black incumbents from Detroit, but Regina Weiss is one of the few suburban white incumbents who had to take on unfamiliar Detroit territory. She faces a handful of opponents from Detroit; if we had to guess, repeat longshot mayoral candidate Myya Jones is the most serious of the bunch, if only because she’s the only one with any sort of footprint.
HD-07 (Central Detroit, suburbs of Ferndale and Royal Oak)
Helena Scott (i) vs. Melanie Macey vs. Grant Rivet
Yet another suburbs-versus-Detroit battle: Helena Scott is a first-term incumbent from Detroit who suddenly finds herself tasked with running for reelection in a bunch of white suburbs. The suburban candidate is Royal Oak City Commissioner Melanie Macey, who is at least making a point of calling herself a progressive and eschewing annoying bipartisanship pablum, so hopefully she’ll be alright if she wins.
HD-08 (Central Detroit, suburbs of Hazel Park and Madison Heights)
Durrel K. Douglas vs. Ernest Little vs. Mike McFall vs. Ryan Nelson vs. David Soltis
What an all-around weird district—the thinnest strip of many thin strips that got drawn in redistricting. Right now Hazel Park City Council Mike McFall has to be a minor favorite for this Frankenstein constituency—he’s got organized labor, and though he’s a white guy from the suburbs, many Detroit politicians are behind him as well. Humorously, he’s also supported by the Realtor’s Association, despite one of their own, Ernest Little, being in the race. Madison Heights City Councilmember David Soltis is running a much quieter campaign, and Ryan Nelson, who tried and failed to run for state house in northern Michigan/the Upper Peninsula twice before this, has the support of the Black Caucus. Three suburban candidates could leave an opening for former labor organizer Douglas Durrell, the most serious Detroit candidate.
HD-09 (Midtown and East Side Detroit, Hamtramck)
Abraham Aiyash (i) vs. Darnell Gardner vs. William Phillips vs. Abraham Shaw vs. Paul Smith
Abraham Aiyash is a rising star: the first Yemeni-American elected to the Michigan legislature was backed by Bernie Sanders and Detroit DSA when he won a vacant seat representing Detroit and Hamtramck in 2020, and he’s consistently been one of the most progressive politicians in the entire state since his victory. He should coast to a second term.
HD-10 (Riverfront Detroit/Grosse Pointes)
Joseph Tate (i) vs. Toni Mua
Joseph Tate easily beat a strong progressive challenger, Taylor Harrell, in 2020. Toni Mua, who would be Michigan’s first trans state legislator and the first Black trans woman elected to any state legislature, is hoping to have better luck with her campaign, focusing on water infrastructure and education. Redistricting shifted this district further into the wealthy Grosse Pointes (a collection of mostly white suburbs northeast of Detroit), and those were Tate’s strongest areas in 2020.
HD-11 (East Detroit, suburbs of Harper Woods and St. Clair Shores)
Patrick Biange vs. Marvin Cotton Jr. vs. Paul Francis vs. Alex Manwell vs. David Maynard vs. Veronica Paiz vs. Athena Thornton vs. Ricardo White vs. Regina Williams
This absolute mess of a primary includes two local elected officials, Harper Woods City Councilors Veronica Paiz and Regina Williams, as well as political operative Ricardo White, exonerated prisoners’ advocate Marvin Cotton Jr., engineer Alex Manwell, and an assortment of also-rans. Paiz appears to be the progressive choice, while White is clearly the establishment favorite—and if his endorsements from police unions are any indication, he’s not going to be all that great.
HD-13 (Detroit and Warren)
Lori Stone (i) vs. Myles Miller
Lori Stone is a low-profile backbencher in the Michigan House, representing predominantly white working-class Warren since 2019. Redistricting gave her a bunch of new territory in Detroit—and a challenger in motivational speaker Myles Miller.
HD-14 (Detroit and Warren)
Aaron Delikta vs. Kristina Lodovisi vs. Donavan McKinney
Center Line City Councilman Aaron Delikta ran for a Warren state House seat in 2018…as a Republican. Hard pass. That leaves Afghanistan veteran Kristina Lodovisi as the Macomb County candidate. Climate advocate and political staffer Donavan McKinney is the only Detroiter in this race, and he’s also a clear favorite—the Democratic Party establishment, organized labor, and progressives all seem to like him. McKinney lost a state House race in 2020, but he lost to Shri Thanedar, who self-funded a truly obscene amount; Lodovisi and Delikta don’t have Thanedar’s millions to buy themselves the seat, so this time should be different for McKinney.
HD-15 (Dearborn and Dearborn Heights)
Erin Byrnes vs. Bilal Hammoud (vs. Afaf Ahmad)
Dearborn City Council President Pro Tem Erin Byrnes and former Michigan Department of State employee Bilal Hammoud are facing off in one of the few clear ideological battles in the state. Hammoud has the backing of progressive groups and Rashida Tlaib; Byrnes has some local politicians and a lot of labor unions (though AFSCME, not exactly a small union, is backing Hammoud; labor isn’t unanimously on Byrnes’s side.) A third candidate, Afaf Ahmad, is on the ballot, but she has dropped out and endorsed Hammoud.
HD-16 (West Detroit, suburbs of Redford and Livonia)
Stephanie Young (i) vs. Ishmail Terry
Freshman state Rep. Stephanie Young emerged from a crowded field in 2020 to succeed current MI-13 candidate Sherry Gay-Dagnogo; now she has a head-to-head contest with former legislative staffer Ishmail Terry, who touts the endorsement of the Michigan Democratic Party Progressive Caucus.
HD-18 (Inner suburbs of Southfield and Farmington Hills)
Jason Hoskins vs. Caprice Jackson
Southfield City Councilor Jason Hoskins is the favorite of area politicians at the state and local level, and he seems a much likelier winner here. But Caprice Jackson, a former staffer for Southfield U.S. Rep. Brenda Lawrence running with her old boss’s backing, can’t be counted out, and she does have some progressives on her side.
HD-20 (Northern Detroit suburb of West Bloomfield)
Noah Arbit vs. Ken Ferguson vs. James Sklar
Former Gretchen Whitmer staffer and Michigan Democratic Jewish Caucus founder Noah Arbit has the support of just about every Oakland County politician. He’s also annoyingly centrist, but neither of his opponents seem interested in running to his left, so the “innovative, common-sense solutions” guy might as well win.
HD-26 (Inner suburbs of Inkster, Romulus, Garden City, and Wayne)
Steven Chisholm vs. Stephen M. Patterson vs. Dylan Wegela vs. Allen Wilson
Western Wayne County is not known for its progressive politics, but there’s never a bad time to start. Teacher and union organizer Dylan Wegela, who was a key part of the Arizona RedForEd protests in 2018, is running a very progressive campaign, including support for Medicare For All. The teachers’ union is supporting him in this race, as are various Garden City politicians. His main competition is Inkster City Councilmember Steven Chisholm, who is probably going to do well in his city, which holds about ⅓ of Democrats in the district.
HD-32 (Ypsilanti)
Marshall Averill vs. Roderick Casey vs. Isaac London II vs. Robyn McCoy vs. Carol Smith vs. Jimmie Wilson Jr.
Ypsilanti Township Trustee Jimmie Wilson Jr. looks like the frontrunner here, as the only elected official and the choice of organized labor (in his day job, he’s an electrician at Ford, and through that he’s an active UAW member.) Attorney Robyn McCoy does have the backing of incumbent state Rep. Ronnie Peterson, who is term-limited; she served as a staffer in his legislative office.
HD-47 (Ann Arbor and western rurals)
James Johnson Jr. vs. Carrie Rheingans
Because it’s Ann Arbor, both candidates have taken very progressive positions. Realistically, both union organizer James Johnson Jr. or Michigan Public Health Institute project director Carrie Rheingans would be one of the best members of the state house. In fact, their differences may be more regional than anything—Johnson comes from the blue-collar county of Jackson, while Rheingans lives in the district’s other county, Washtenaw, in the college town of Ann Arbor.
HD-56 (Detroit suburb of Troy)
Sharon MacDonell vs. Cyndi Peltonen
Clawson School Board Member Cyndi Peltonen has bad timing. She was the Democratic nominee for a state senate district in 2014 and a state house district in 2016 that both flipped blue the next time they were up in 2018. Peltonen is now running for a new, safely blue district, but her behavior doesn’t reflect that. She distributed signatures for a local GOP, anti-choice judge. Sharon MacDonell, the Marketing and Video Manager at Lawrence Technological University is supported by labor and most other institutional players within the Democratic Party. Hopefully that’s enough to break through Peltonen’s name rec.
HD-69 (Western Flint suburbs)
Jenifer Almassy vs. Kenyetta Dotson vs. Jasper Martus
Dan Kildee staffer Jasper Martus gives off a vaguely progressive aesthetic—he’s young, and uses terms like “people-powered politics”—but he doesn’t take many specific policy positions, and is endorsed by a cop union. Teacher and union rep Jenifer Almassy has twice that many cop endorsements, and really wants to reassure voters she does “not want to take guns away”. While Martus has Kildee’s network, Almassy has a much fuller assortment of the local establishment and unions behind her. Hopefully, they can battle it out for the moderate vote and allow anti-violence activist Kenyetta Dotson to slip through. Dotson, who works in pediatric health, seems, well, fine, and here that’s enough for us.
HD-70 (Flint)
Cynthia Neeley (i) vs. Thomas Harris Jr. vs. Rich Jones vs. DeWaun Robinson
Cynthia Neeley faced a handful of challengers in 2020 and walked away with ⅔ of the vote. This year will probably be a repeat of that performance, even if the challengers are different. Of the crowd, the one who stands out is DeWaun Robinson, the president of Black Lives Matter Flint, and Neeley could be vulnerable to complaints about the city’s handling of policing issues, considering her husband is the mayor.
HD-74 (Lansing)
Kara Hope (i) vs. Carlee Knott
Kara Hope, a former Ingham County Commissioner, is used to representing a swing district in the state House, but redistricting pushed her rural district way further into the city that she was used to. Former Gary Peters staffer Carlee Knott is taking advantage of this much bluer district to run an unabashedly progressive campaign supporting single payer, universal pre-K, UBI, and ending cash bail.
HD-75 (NE Lansing metro)
Don Keskey vs. Emily Stivers vs. Penelope Tsernoglou
This is most likely a contest between current Ingham County Commissioner Emily Stivers and former Ingham County Commissioner Peneleope Tsernoglou. Though Stivers’s “experience matters” campaign isn’t the most exciting in the world, she’s right on the issues. Conversely, Tsernoglou is acutely worrying. Tsernoglou lists Republican endorsers on her website, and runs a political consulting firm that works with Democrats and Republicans. The battle between these two has gotten heated, especially after Stivers’s allies sent out a mailer attacking her for working with Republicans, specifically for working for right-wing nutjob Lee Chatfield’s successful campaign to primary out the only pro-gay Republican in Michigan specifically because of his “homosexual agenda”. Tsernoglou and her allies have gotten indignant about Stivers sinking to personal attacks in an effort to deflect from her actions.
HD-77 (NW Lansing metro)
Logan Byrne vs. Emily Dievendorf vs. Jon Horford
Former professional basketball player and owner of multiple businesses Jon Horford is hard to figure out. He’s a Bernie supporter, and a well-off businessman who all the local business groups are endorsing. Emily Dievendorf isn’t much easier to pigeonhole. After decades of LGBTQ and racial justice advocacy, she was viciously assaulted at a George Floyd protest, the injuries of which she’s still recovering from, and the settlement from which she brought a bookstore with that she named The Resistance. Even though she doesn’t seem particularly enthusiastic about running, she has a lot of the Ingham County establishment behind her.
HD-80 (Grand Rapids suburbs of Kentwood, Cascade, and East Grand Rapids)
Lily Cheng-Schulting vs. Phil Skaggs
Kent County Commissioner Phil Skaggs is a clear favorite with plenty of obvious advantages: name recognition from multiple terms on the county commission and the East Grand Rapids city council before that, connections from over a decade of working in Democratic politics, near-unanimous labor support. Disability advocate Lily Cheng-Schulting was the nominee for a gerrymandered state House seat in 2020, and now she’s running in a district Democrats should win; she seems to be running to Skaggs’s left, though Skaggs doesn’t throw up any obvious red flags. Geography might be the real divide here: Cheng-Schulting is from Kentwood, on the southern end of this district, and Kentwood is about five times bigger than Skaggs’s home of East Grand Rapids, on the northern end of the district. If Cheng-Schulting can do well enough on her home turf, Skaggs’s many advantages might not be enough to send him to Lansing.
HD-82 (South and Central Grand Rapids)
Salim Mohammed Al-Shatel vs. Kristian Grant vs. Robert Womack
Salim Mohammed Al-Shatel is a wedding planning business owner who advocates for “[l]owering property tax rates and removing Michigan’s income tax”, something even most Republicans realize would be doom for the state. Of the two non-dangerous candidates, Kent County Commissioner Robert Womack seems fine, but hasn’t been consistently talking about the need for big progressive policy changes like Grand Rapids Public Schools Board of Education member Kristian Grant has.
HD-87 (Muskegon and nearby towns)
Brennen Gorman vs. Eddie Jenkins III vs. Will Snyder vs. Debra Warren
Will Snyder, a party official and aide to outgoing Rep. Terry Sabo, is the odds-on favorite to replace his old boss. Labor and nearly every politician in the county has endorsed him. Synder is, like his boss, unbearably moderate, and is sure to be annoying in the state house. Former Muskegon City Commissioner Debra Warren, who is running as a progressive, is the best hope to beat him, and happily has scored one big endorsement: Kenneth D. Johnson, the mayor of Muskegon, where nearly half the Democrats of the district live. Also running as a progressive(ish) is lawyer Brennen Gorman, whose wife currently sits on the Muskegon City Commission.
Wayne County Sheriff
Raphael Washington (i) vs. Walter Epps vs. Joan Merriewether
After Wayne County Sheriff Benny Napoleon died of COVID in 2020, Raphael Washington was appointed to fill his place. Candidate filing for his reelection came and went without any big name challengers, and then, not long after, news about 4 separate sexual harassment claims made against him by his employees dropped. Against all odds, Washington is in a real race. Neither of his two challengers, both sheriff’s deputies, have much money. Despite that, a recent poll found Washington with only 24% of the vote, compared to 18% for retired commander and 2010 sheriff candidate Walter Epps, and 12% for jail guard Joan Merriewether. The campaign has gotten intensely negative in the final stretch. One mailer, which read “Vote no to Sexual Harassment!! Fire Raphael Washington” was enough to get a judge to accept Washington’s request for a temporary restraining order to be granted against Walter Epps, who denied distributing the mailers. Whoever wins, it’s probably for the best that Washington loses.
Missouri
MO-01 (St. Louis and suburbs)
Cori Bush (i) vs. Steven Roberts vs. Earl Childress vs. Michael Daniels vs. Ronald Harshaw
CW: Sexual assault
Watching Cori Bush win made for one of the best nights of 2020. Bush's political activism was formed in the first days of the post-Ferguson Black Lives Matter movement; a nurse and single mother, she took to the streets after the murder of Michael Brown, with police assaults and tear gas only motivating her to get more involved. Her direct, emotional appeals to imagine a better world, along with a superhuman work ethic, helped her, over the course of three successive campaigns, go from a fringe protest candidate for Senate in 2016 to a respectable failed primary challenger in 2018 to a giant-slayer in 2020, when she upset Rep. Lacy Clay Jr., the scion of a famed St. Louis dynasty.
Bush, and her indomitable spirit, have made for an eventful first term, from protests, to sticking by her beliefs even when it made for controversial votes. Bush is not the only politician to shake up the staid centrism of St. Louis politics in recent years, but her primary win was the most visible changing of the guard, and some politicians are desperate to turn back the clock. That’s predictable. You’d just think they’d do better than Steve Roberts. Roberts, who comes from a powerful political family and was first elected to the state Senate in 2020, has a voting record that we’re not going to discuss, because the more pressing issue is the multiple credible accusations of sexual assault levied against him.
We’re not going to rehash every detail about both of those cases—you can read more about them here and here—but both women allege they were the victims of sexual assault from Roberts, and went to the police about it. Roberts settled with both women separately for substantial amounts of money. While one of the accusers has since passed away, the other has gone to the press to identify herself and speak out against Roberts’s congressional bid. Though Roberts continues to deny everything, it’s made him radioactive as a candidate, and the only big name supporter he could pull in was Lacy Clay. Maybe Roberts would have gone negative regardless, but the consistent attacks he’s launched at Bush for everything from voting against the infrastructure bill to “not loving” St. Louis are the hallmarks of a candidate who thinks he can only win by dragging his opponent down further than he is.
Polling indicates this race is far from over: Roberts released an internal poll showing him down 36-18, and a Remington Research poll showed Bush leading by a similar 40-20 margin. That’s a clear lead for Bush, but you don’t want to be below 50% as an incumbent. While not likely, the danger of a Roberts win is real.
HD-19 (Downtown Kansas City)
Ingrid Burnett (i) vs. Wick Thomas
We don't generally quote other publications word-for-word, but this Pitch KC headline, Wick Thomas is a pansexual glam-rockstar running for Missouri representative seat, is an introduction we're not going to top. Wick Thomas previously challenged Ingrid Burnett in 2020 and placed in third, though it was a relatively strong 25% compared to her 40%. The basic contours of the race remain unchanged: Ingrid Burnett, as an older, more temperamentally moderate (if not in policy) politician, is not ideal for downtown Kansas City. However, while a majority of voters chose to replace her in 2020, they gravitated towards a more traditional politician type. Consequently, Thomas has much more to cover to reach 50% than Burnett does, even if that ground might be friendlier to him. While Burnett is perceived as the favorite here, there are a wide range of possible outcomes.
HD-22 (Central Kansas City)
Yolanda Young (i) vs. Kevon Graves vs. Davitta Hanson
Yolanda Young, who first won in a special election, was reelected 68-15 over Kevon Graves in 2020. This is a rematch without much promise. Davitta Hanson is a new face, but is running an even more bare-bones campaign than Graves.
HD-32 (South end of Kansas City)
Annette Turnbaugh (i) vs. John Boyd Jr. vs. Anthony Ealy
Annette Turnbaugh’s very vaguely competitive district got moved slightly north and became more clearly safe for Democrats, which is perhaps why her Republican opponent from 2020, John Boyd Jr., switched parties to run against her. He won’t win. A more promising challenger is union lawyer and former Emmanuel Cleaver staffer Anthony Ealy, a young, Black progressive who wants to end the school-to-prison pipeline and establish a single payer healthcare system.
HD-68 (North St. Louis County, inc. Florissant)
Jay Mosley (i) vs. Don Houston vs. Pamela Paul
Jay Mosley, the husband of state Sen. Angela Mosley, is definitely favored for reelection, but Pamela Paul claims some local Democratic club endorsements and could surprise us, especially with how small Missouri House districts are.
HD-72 (North St. Louis County, inc. Ferguson)
Mike Person (i) vs. Raychel Proudie (i)
Mike Person, aka that guy who almost lost a deep blue seat to the Libertarian, found that his spindly district was eliminated in redistricting, throwing him into Raychel Proudie’s Ferguson-based district. The odds are stacked against Person. His politics are pretty similar to fellow incumbent Raychel Proudie, so the division in this race will probably be regional.
HD-75 (North St. Louis County, inc. Florissant)
Alan Gray (i) vs. Sylvester Taylor II
State Rep. Alan Gray managed to hold off progressive Teona McGhaw-Boure' three times, though the third, in 2020, was a close-ish 59-41 margin. This time, he faces a challenge from the opposite direction. Sylvester Taylor II managed to get elected to the state house one time, in 2010, but badly lost a redistricting battle in 2012 and an open seat race in 2014. The pro-charter school politician is now elected to the Hazelwood School District Board of Education and wants to give the legislature another go.
HD-81 (Southern St. Louis)
Steve Butz (i) vs. Bill Stephens
This election is another tug-of-war between the moderate and progressive factions of southern St. Louis politics. Steve Butz, of the former camp, was narrowly elected over a progressive in 2016, and has accrued an expectedly moderate voting record in the state house. Bill Stephens is a librarian who unexpectedly defeated an incumbent moderate Alderman last year, and did so in Ward 12, the second strongest ward for the moderate faction in the city. He’s a gay atheist who won a nonpartisan race in a ward that still votes for Republicans sometimes. That takes talent, and Butz, who still publicly opposes abortion, is an unusually soft incumbent. This may be the best chance for progressives to take down an incumbent in the state, though Stephens will be missed on the Board of Alders.
HD-84 (West-Central St. Louis)
Wiley Price (i) vs. Del Taylor
This race is all about incumbent Wiley Price. Specifically, Price’s scandals. In January 2020, Price had an inappropriate relationship with an intern at the state Capitol; when a subordinate learned of the relationship and reported it (intern-legislator relationships are prohibited for obvious reasons), Price retaliated, attempting to intimidate the employee who reported the relationship and lying to investigators about his relationship with the intern. This is all according to a report from the state House’s Ethics Committee adopted by a unanimous bipartisan vote, which served as the basis for the state House voting to censure Price, remove him from committees, and bar him from holding leadership positions.
HD-85 (Inner suburbs, inc. Jennings)
Yolonda Fortson vs. Yolanda Fountain Henderson vs. Donovan Meeks
Progressive activist Yolonda “Yonnee” Fortson nearly beat Mike Person in a primary last cycle, and as such is probably the frontrunner here. The other Yolanda, former Jennings Mayor Yolanda Fountain-Henderson, is backed by the local Mosley political dynasty, and shouldn’t be counted out.
Ohio
Ohio’s congressional primaries were held back in May, but because of gerrymandering fuckery that got held up in court for a while (Republicans ultimately got a gerrymander they wanted anyway), the state legislative primaries had to wait until August.
SD-23 (East Cleveland and eastern suburbs)
John Barnes Jr. vs. Kent Smith
Kent Smith is a white guy running to represent a majority-Black district in the Cleveland suburbs. Smith is termed out in the state House and has been largely anointed by the Cuyahoga County machine as the Senate nominee. Normally a serious opponent to that kind of candidate is great news. If only that opponent weren’t John Barnes Jr. Barnes was a state rep. For several non-consecutive terms, the last two of which he barely managed to get reelected to, he frequently voted with Republicans and fought with the Democratic Party, to the point of legal action. Barnes was last seen getting 1% of the vote in the OH-11 special election, and, before that, losing the primary for the predecessor to this Senate district in 2018. Barnes is a spent force, and thank god for that.
Please enjoy this all-timer “graphic design is my passion” moment from Barnes.
HD-01 (Downtown Columbus)
Dontavius Jarrells (i) vs. Carolyn Harding
Carolyn Harding, a radio host/podcaster, is running a progressive campaign, but is it likely to succeed? Well, her website refers to the district number she’s running in as “TBD”.
HD-02 (East Columbus)
Latyna Humphrey (i) vs. Michael D. Cole
County court bailiff Latyna Humphrey, appointed to the state House last year, is in for an unexpectedly rocky time. The Franklin County Democratic Party has instead endorsed Michael Cole, while Humphrey has been left to fend for herself. It’s unclear what caused the breakdown in relations between establishment forces and Humprey—she’s been a pretty standard Democrat so far—but it happened.
HD-03 (Central Columbus)
Kelly Harrop vs. Mayo Makinde vs. DaVon Marshall vs. Ismail Mohamed vs. Lamar Peoples
HD-03, one of the few open seats in Ohio, could finally be the left’s foothold into the state House. The district is young and urban, and the left has found a good candidate in recent college grad DaVon Marshall. He has his work cut out for him in a field of strong candidates, most obviously Kelly Harrop, Communications and Outreach Director for the Central Ohio/Columbus Building Trades Council. Harrop leads the field in fundraising, and has labor support for obvious reasons. You can’t say Harrop is trying to pass herself off as a progressive—she lists “Elected First and Youngest Female Delegate for Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Pete Buttigieg in 2020” right on her website. Lawyer Ismail Mohamed came pretty close to winning the primary for a similar district in 2018, and Mayo Makinde, Executive Director of Central Ohio Chapter at National Association of Minority Contractors, has strong business connections, though how that translates into viability as a candidate is hard to judge. Overall, Harrop is the favorite, but an opening for Marshall is clearly there as the only candidate messaging as a progressive.
HD-09 (Northeast Columbus)
Munira Abdullahi vs. Paul Filippelli
It’s nice, after slogging through a lot of races where the choices are between mediocre and sub-mediocre, to come to an election where either candidate winning would be welcome. Munira Abdullahi, program manager for the Muslim American Society, and labor lawyer Paul Filippelli are both running very progressive campaigns.
HD-16 (Western Cleveland suburbs)
Monique Smith (i) vs. Bride Rose Sweeney (i)
Though it didn’t happen anywhere else in the state, redistricting double bunked two incumbents in Cuyahoga County. Well, sort of of. Neither of them actually lives in the new district. Details, details. Monique Smith represents far more of the district, and has the bragging rights of being a rare Democrat to flip a GOP seat in 2020. Still, Bride Rose Sweeney, a dynasty politician with more seniority, has wrangled more of the Cuyahoga establishment to her side, as well as important unions such as the building trades and teachers. The candidates don’t differ terribly on the issues, though we like Smith for the same reason the Cleveland Plain Dealer doesn’t: stronger advocacy and fiery rhetoric.
HD-20 (East Side of Cleveland)
Terrence Upchurch (i) vs. Mike Seals
We can find precious little information online about Mike Seals, beyond that he’s a precinct committeeman and former union organizer. That means, even if he’s a long shot, he’d probably be better in the state house than incumbent Terrence Upchurch, one of the small cohort of Democrats who voted for the FirstEnergy coal and nuclear bailout—the bailout that was orchestrated by Republican Speaker Larry Householder in a galling act of corruption that put him in prison—after taking their campaign contributions.
HD-21 (Eastern Cleveland suburbs)
Michael Ettorre vs. Elliot Forhan vs. Jonathan Holody
This race is going to come down to lawyer Elliot Forhan, the Cuyahoga County party choice, and Jonathan Holody, Euclid’s Director of Planning and Development, who has a lot of support in his hometown. As much as we love a good machine challenger, Holody’s big issues are lower taxes and more cops, while Forhan has at least been meticulous about not angering either the progressive or moderate wing of the party. Also, Holody has one union endorsement and it’s the building trades, which is never a good sign.
HD-22 (Eastern Cleveland suburbs)
Juanita Brent (i) vs. Danielle Dronet vs. Vincent Stokes II
Juanita Brent is a rare progressive in the House, and aggressively campaigned for Nina Turner in the congressional campaign. You might think, then, that at least one of her two opponents is the machine trying to clear her out for one of their own, but that’s not the case. Danielle Dronet, a trauma counselor, is similarly progressive, while Vincent Stokes II ran against a machine-y incumbent in 2020 and got flattened 86-14.
HD-24 (South Cincinnati)
Dani Isaacsohn vs. Dale Mallory
Former state Rep. Dale Mallory is trying to make a comeback. Mallory was first elected to the state House in 2008. It probably helped that his brother was mayor at the time. He coasted in that job for a few years, but came crashing down hard in 2014 when he tried to move up to the state Senate, lost the primary, and then pleaded guilty a few months later to taking improper gifts from lobbyists and lying about it. In 2018 he got squashed 74-26 running for Senate again. There was no appetite for his comeback attempt then, and even less now. Everyone in Hamilton County politics with a pulse has lined up behind Dani Isaacsohn, who has the most “political aspirant” bio imaginable: former Obama White House intern who now runs a nonprofit devoted to listening to people. This man will be running for more things in the near future, mark our words.
HD-27 (Downtown Cincinnati and east Hamilton suburbs)
Rachel Baker vs. Gavi Begtrup
Gavi Begtrup was one of the also-rans for the mayoral race last year. He leaned heavily on his experience as policy director for Gabby Giffords, and finished with a “not bad, I guess” 10% of the vote; naturally, he’s sticking to that approach this time around too. The district may be mostly suburban by population, but the Cincinnati portion is heavily Democratic, while the suburban portion is Republican, making the primary vote skewed towards the city and his position in the race stronger than it looks, which is already pretty strong. Pediatric nurse Rachel Baker is the underdog and isn’t running an overtly progressive campaign, which is a shame, because we’re guessing there’s considerable room to the left of a man who was the policy director for a Blue Dog member of Congress.
HD-43 (Toledo)
Michele Grim vs. Daniel Ortiz
This race is between Toledo City Councilmember Michele Grim and her former staffer Daniel Ortiz. Luckily this isn’t of those races resulting from that annoying habit of some politicians, who take personal grudges and turn them into negative grudge match campaigns that are impenetrable to an outside observer—they both just seem to want to be in the legislature, and there’s no bad blood. Or, it started out like that anyway. Grim decided to go negative on Ortiz at the last minute, attacking him for opposing an income tax increase ballot measure in 2020, and the candidates got into a back-and-forth on social media. Ortiz has been running the more progressive of the two campaigns, and our rule is to assume municipal politicians are terrible until proven otherwise.