Primary School 5/4

$57 million

Last Tuesday, incumbents had a good night in an overall sleepy cycle for Pennsylvania Democrats. Rep. Summer Lee defeated billionaire-funded centrist opponent Bhavini Patel by a wide 60-39 margin, and state legislators all won reelection comfortably except for state Reps. Amen Brown (who won by just 44 votes over progressive challenger Cass Green) and Kevin Boyle (who lost to party-backed challenger Sean Dougherty in a landslide amid legal troubles and a potential expulsion effort.) See our full preview writeup with results included here.

FEC Maryland Pre-Primary Reports

MD-Sen: Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks is a perfectly capable fundraiser, but as has been the case this entire race, the stockpile of cash she’s built up is no match for Rep. and Total Wine gazillionaire David Trone’s checkbook. (The quarterly report understates Trone’s self-funding; he loaned his campaign an additional $3.15 million five days after the pre-primary filing deadline, according to 48-hour filings.) Trone, one of the wealthiest members of Congress, has now poured more than $57 million of his own money into his Senate campaign, a record number for a Senate primary and on track to surpass Rick Scott’s all-time record for self-funding in a Senate race ($63.6 million in 2018—in a much more populous state than Maryland, with the bulk of the self-funding being in the general election.)

MD-03: While self-funder Aisha Khan vaulted into third by cash on hand thanks to a six-figure self-loan, actual campaign spending makes it clear this is a two-way race between former Capitol Police officer Harry Dunn and AIPAC-backed state Sen. Sarah Elfreth, with an outside chance of an upset by more progressive state Sen. Clarence Lam.

MD-06: Hagerstown Mayor Tekesha Martinez’s late filing makes it hard for us to fully judge the state of play here, because Martinez had been neck-and-neck with Del. Joe Vogel and far ahead of everyone other than Vogel and April McClain-Delaney.

Outside $ Tracker

MD-Sen

• $32K of TV ads attacking David Trone from Fight Corporate Monopolies.

• $28K of yard signs and $25K of phonebanking for Angela Alsobrooks from Save America Fund

• $1.38M in TV ads and $221K in digital ads attacking David Trone from Women Vote! (EMILY’s List)

MD-03

• A total of $230K in mailers, $1.51M in ads, and $1800 in phonebanking for Sarah Elfreth from United Democracy Project (AIPAC)

• $23K in mailers for Clarence Lam from AAPI Victory Fund

MD-06

• $84K of mailers and $29K of digital ads for Joe Vogel from Equality PAC

• $7K of mailers attacking April McClain Delaney from Equality PAC

• $16K of mailers supporting Joe Vogel and $16K of mailers attacking April McClain Delaney from Common Sense Common Ground PAC

NJ-Sen

• $23K in ads supporting Andy Kim from End Citizens United

NJ-08

• $148K in mailers supporting Rob Menendez Jr. from the Congressional Hispanic Caucus’s BOLD PAC

• $100K in digital ads attacking Rob Menendez Jr. from America’s Promise PAC

NY-16

• $46K of mailers supporting Jamaal Bowman and $44K in mailers attacking George Latimer from Justice Democrats. The pro-Bowman mailer is kind of generic, but the anti-Latimer ad is juicier, and confirms that the strategy from JD is going to be attacking Latimer for raising money from Republicans.

OR-03

• $850K in TV ads across two buys for Maxine Dexter from 314 Action Fund. Ryan Grim of The Intercept reports that the funder of 314’s total of $1.7 million in Dexter ads is actually AIPAC, using 314 Action as a front to save Dexter the heartache of associating herself with them.

• $45K in mailers attacking Susheela Jayapal from Voters for Responsive Government, which Grim reports is another AIPAC front.

• $58K in ads and consulting for Eddy Morales from the National Association of Realtors

VA-10

• $86K in TV ads and $18K of digital ads for Dan Helmer from VoteVets.

News

AZ-03

According to National Journal’s Hotline, an internal poll conducted in mid-April for the campaign of Phoenix City Councilor Yassamin Ansari found her leading former state Sen. Raquel Terán 32%-21%, with Dr. Duane Wooten at 8%.

CA-16

After a recount paid for by a PAC tied to former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo, Assemb. Evan Low has won second place over Santa Clara County Supervisor Joe Simitian. In the initial tally, the pair had tied for second place with Liccardo comfortably in first, which would have meant a three-way general election. Liccardo’s camp evidently likes his chances better against a single opponent, and they may have been right: Liccardo released an internal poll, conducted in early April, showing him leading Low 36% to 26% shortly after Low officially made the runoff.

DE-Gov, DE-House

The Delaware Working Families Party announced its first round of endorsements for the September Democratic primaries, leading with an endorsement of former Delaware Secretary of Natural Resources and Environmental Control Collin O’Mara. The Delaware WFP also has a slate of state legislative candidates, some incumbents and some challengers, as they seek to defend and grow the progressive legislative bloc that WFP and DSA have built over the past two cycles. They include Kamela Smith, who is challenging state House Speaker Valerie Longhurst, and Branden Fletcher Dominguez, a DSA-backed candidate for an open Wilmington seat.

LA-06

Months ago, a federal court ordered the Louisiana legislature to redraw the state’s congressional map with a second Black-majority district, and the legislature complied with a hideous Baton Rouge-to-Shreveport squiggle. Now, a different panel of federal judges has thrown out that remedial map, siding with plaintiffs who say it’s a racial gerrymander against “non-African-Americans.” There are a few potential outcomes here: the case could end up with Louisiana reverting to one Black-majority district, a map that replaces the state-spanning mess with a more compact Baton Rouge-Monroe district, or the current replacement map staying in place. But at the moment, Louisiana has no congressional map for this year’s elections, putting the contest for LA-06—which had been redrawn into that hideous Baton Rouge-to-Shreveport squiggle, and where notable candidates including state Sen. Cleo Fields had already launched campaigns—on hold.

MD-Sen

The race between ultra-wealthy Rep. David Trone, the co-owner of Total Wine & More, and Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks is finally getting heated. Trone (in our view unwisely) started the mudslinging phase of the campaign, putting together an ad featuring Alsobrooks’s foes in Prince George’s County politics, who say she’s unready for the Senate; according to Prince George’s County Councilman Edward Burroughs, “the US Senate is not a place for training wheels.” (We would be remiss not to note that Alsobrooks has held public office for eight years more than Trone, who is objectively a rich dilettante.) Alsobrooks’s allies didn’t hit back right away; it was almost a week before EMILY’s List’s super PAC, Women Vote!, responded. But when they finally hit back, they hit back hard with an ad excoriating Trone for donations made to anti-choice Republicans by Trone and his companies over the years, directly tying Trone’s donations to draconian abortion bans enacted in Texas (where he donated to Gov. Greg Abbott) and Arizona (where he donated to former Gov. Doug Ducey.) The ad also flashes a quote from Trone across the screen that might be one of the most ill-advised statements ever made by a self-funding politician: “I sign my checks to buy access,” Trone’s defense for his past GOP donations all the way back in 2016 when he made his first (unsuccessful) bid for Congress. The ad is backed by more than $1.3 million in TV reservations and over $220,000 in digital ad reservations over the final week of the race.

Alsobrooks’s campaign has stuck to a more positive message, but they’re likewise pulling out all the stops: a new Alsobrooks ad has her highest-profile endorsers like Gov. Wes Moore, Sen. Chris Van Hollen, and Rep. Jamie Raskin praising Alsobrooks directly to the camera.

MD-06

This race is April McClain Delaney’s to lose. She has a vast financial advantage thanks to her generous self-funding, name recognition from her husband John’s time as this district’s congressman, and now the endorsement of the Washington Post, which sways a lot of suburban DC liberals in close races.

MI-11, MI-12

In another sign of how the politics of Israel/Palestine have shifted, Rashida Tlaib—the only Palestinian member of Congress and one of Israel’s fiercest critics in the body—has a glide path to reelection after nobody serious filed to run against her in time for Michigan’s filing deadline. Her only opponent is anti-abortion perennial candidate Ryan Foster. Meanwhile, medical worker and Uncommitted organizer Ahmed Ghanim filed to challenge neighboring Rep. Haley Stevens at the last minute.

MI-13

Former state Sen. Adam Hollier’s challenge to Rep. Shri Thanedar may not make it to the primary ballot if Thanedar is able to get enough of Hollier’s petitions thrown out, and there’s reason to believe a substantial number of petitions will be: a columnist for the Detroit Free Press reports that a petition circulator appears to have forged the signature of one of its own reporters. Thanedar has challenged 791 of Hollier’s 1,551 signatures; Hollier needs at least 1,000 valid signatures to make the ballot.

NJ-Gov

Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop has been willing to ally with New Jersey’s powerful political machines and party bosses when it’s convenient, but unlike many of his competitors in the 2025 Democratic gubernatorial field, he seems interested in harnessing the wave of pent-up anti-corruption sentiment that pushed New Jersey First Lady Tammy Murphy out of this year’s Senate race. He’s been flirting with reform for months; he switched his endorsement from Murphy to Kim two weeks before Murphy dropped out, and has been calling for the end of the county line system since last October. Now, he’s committing to a reform message as fully as he possibly can, with a bold (if self-serving) plan to recruit good-government Assembly candidates (who are presumably loyal to Fulop) and fund their campaigns. According to Fulop, 86 potential candidates indicated their interest to the Fulop campaign in the first four days after posting its call for candidates. If Fulop follows through, this will mean running primary challengers against entrenched state legislators across the state, an aggressive play that could reshape Trenton even if Fulop loses.

That Assembly recruitment effort is impressive enough on its own, but Fulop topped it off by endorsing Jerry Speziale, a former Passaic County Sheriff who’s trying to reclaim his old job against the wishes of the Passaic County Democratic machine, which is backing lifelong Republican Thomas Adamo. Speziale has also recruited his own slate of county commission candidates to challenge the machine’s endorsed commission candidates. By endorsing Speziale, Fulop is publicly crossing a traditionally powerful Democratic machine and accepting the consequences. (Rep. Josh Gottheimer, who is cozying up to the machines in an attempt to position himself for a gubernatorial run of his own, endorsed the Passaic County machine slate later that same day.)

Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, who is also positioning himself as a progressive reformer for 2025, has a surprising new supporter: Camden Mayor Vic Carstarphen, who will host a fundraiser for Baraka’s gubernatorial campaign. Carstarphen was elected by the powerful South Jersey Democratic machine, which is firmly backing former state Senate President Steve Sweeney. His support may complicate Baraka’s progressive branding—and indicates potential trouble for Sweeney at home in South Jersey.

NJ-08

A super PAC supporting Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla is putting $100,000 behind a digital ad attacking Rep. Rob Menendez Jr. for being the son of Sen. Bob Menendez. There’s not much else to say; it doesn't even attack Rob for being handed his House seat in 2022 because of his dad’s influence. The ad just reminds you that Rob Menendez Jr.’s dad is the gold bars guy. We’re not gonna lie, it might still be effective.

The Congressional Hispanic Caucus is worried enough about Menendez that they dropped six figures on mailers promoting his reelection, a sign that the nepotism attacks may be breaking through—and it’s not hard to see why when you read Business Insider’s Bryan Metzger’s recent write-up of the race: though Bhalla’s critics say the mayor is more a self-promoting opportunist than a true opponent of the machine, Menendez’s supporters have no good answer when asked about the nepotism charge. (This is because it is obviously true; longtime readers might remember the coronation that Menendez, then a little-known Port Authority commissioner, received in 2022, clearing the field of ambitious local politicians with ease because of marching orders from the machine.)

NJ-10

Rep. Donald Payne Jr. has passed away after suffering a heart attack and entering a coma. The late congressman lay in state at the Essex County Courthouse in Newark on Wednesday. Out of respect for Payne and his family, aspiring successors have so far refrained from making public moves towards a campaign, but that will soon change. Since the congressman is unopposed in the June 4 primary, and New Jersey has no procedure to replace a deceased candidate after ballots have been printed, Democratic county committee members in the district will have to pick a replacement nominee after Payne wins posthumously (unless a write-in candidate pulls off an improbable victory.) Additionally, the county committees are expected to wait to make their pick until after voters have chosen a nominee in the special primary election called by Gov. Phil Murphy, apparently reasoning that the benefits of a guaranteed few months’ extra seniority are enough to avoid a messy bout of public infighting. (The special primary is set for July 16, with a special general election on September 18.)

The New Jersey Globe has a list of 6 likely successors, all from Newark: Newark City Council President LaMonica McIver, Assemb. Shanique Speight, Essex County Commissioner A’Dorian Murray Thomas, Essex County Surrogate Alturrick Kenney, Newark City Councilman Patrick Council, and the Rev. Ronald Slaughter, a prominent Newark pastor who serves as vice chair of the state parole board. InsiderNJ reports that Baraka’s faction of Essex County politics is coalescing around McIver, but the mainstream Essex County machine led by chairman LeRoy Jones may be reluctant to give Baraka a win while he’s running against Jones’s preferred gubernatorial candidate, Rep. Mikie Sherrill (though sources tell InsiderNJ not to expect a Baraka-Jones war for the seat.) Meanwhile, according to InsiderNJ, Hillside Mayor Dahlia Vertreese and Newark attorney Chigozie Onyema, a former city council candidate, may consider campaigns that would be more independent of the machine; both have run campaigns backed by progressive activists against machine candidates, and could benefit from a split field if Baraka and Jones back different candidates. Vertreese or another non-Newark candidate could also benefit from geography if Newark candidates pile into an open race: only about 55% of the primary vote comes from Newark’s Essex County, with roughly 14% coming from Jersey City and the remainder from Union County, which contains Hillside.

OR-03

State Rep. Maxine Dexter has won the endorsement of the Oregonian’s staunchly moderate-to-conservative editorial board. The endorsement editorial minimizes the differences between Dexter and her two opponents, former Multnomah County Commissioner Susheela Jayapal and Gresham City Councilor Eddy Morales, while making it clear that the Oregonian editorial board finds Jayapal’s progressive rhetoric annoying. The idea that there’s not much difference between Dexter and her opponents is belied by the heavy involvement of dark money in this race on Dexter’s behalf—the ostensibly pro-science group 314 Action is reportedly acting as a conduit for AIPAC or its donors in order to stop Jayapal, whose sister Pramila chairs the Congressional Progressive Caucus and represents Seattle in the House. Jayapal and Morales joined forces to bash Dexter for the outside spending and call on her to ask 314 Action to disclose its donors; Dexter responded by releasing a statement ignoring 314 Action entirely and only decrying “a new dark money group” for going negative. (That group she’s referring to is Voters for Responsive Government—another AIPAC front, according to the Intercept—which just began sending out anti-Jayapal mailers.)

Baltimore Mayor

To the dismay of many, former Mayor Sheila Dixon undeniably has the momentum at the start of the early voting period. Dixon and current Mayor Brandon Scott have been releasing dueling endorsements in the run-up to early voting, but Dixon’s are more meaningful. Most important is Thiru Vignarajah, who had been running against Dixon and Scott on a conservative message; he clearly threatened to pull more votes away from Dixon than from Scott. (Scott’s campaign didn’t take this endorsement lying down, saying Vignarajah had unsuccessfully attempted to trade his endorsement to Scott for a promise of a powerful job in the mayor’s administration.) The late support of a credible opponent would be enough on its own to outweigh Scott’s recent endorsements, but Dixon’s good week hasn’t been limited to Vignarajah’s endorsement—former US Sen. Barbara Mikulski, City Sheriff Sam Cogen, and state Sen. Jill Carter also endorsed her over Scott. Scott can fall back on the support of most of the city council, including occasional moderate critic Sharon Green Middleton, and a collection of Democratic county executives and state legislators, but we strongly suspect Vignarajah’s endorsement will move more votes. (It will not move any of the thousands of voters who have already voted by mail, however; Vignarajah’s early mail votes will end up wasted.)

Harris County Judge

Former Houston Mayor Annise Parker is leaving the job she’s held since 2017 as head of the LGBTQ+ Victory Fund, a group that funds select LGBT candidates for office at all levels of government across the country, and she’s thinking about a potential return to elected office. Specifically, Parker is considering a run for Harris County Judge (“county judge” is Texan for “county executive”) against second-term incumbent Lina Hidalgo, a progressive who ousted longtime Republican incumbent Ed Emmett in 2018. Hidalgo herself may not seek reelection, as many think she has ambitions for higher office. Harris County contains most of Houston and its suburbs, totaling nearly 4.8 million residents, and is an excellent launching pad for a statewide campaign. Parker’s interest in a 2026 campaign doesn’t seem dependent on whether Hidalgo runs for reelection, however.

Wilmington, DE Mayor

John Carney has had a long career at the highest levels of Delaware politics. Aside from two years during the Great Recession, Carney has held statewide office since 2001—first as lieutenant governor, then as the state’s lone member of the House of Representatives, then as governor. Term-limited as governor this year, the soon-to-be-68-year-old could easily retire to the status of an elder statesman and enjoy a leisurely life of galas and vacations—or he could run for mayor of Wilmington. After considering a campaign for months, Carney made it official this week: he’ll run to succeed outgoing mayor Mike Purzycki in September’s Democratic primary.