Virginia
VA-10 (Loudoun County, DC exurbs and rural outskirts)
Jennifer Boysko vs. Marion Devoe vs. Eileen Filler-Corn vs. Dan Helmer vs. Krystle Kaul vs. Mark Leighton vs. Michelle Maldonado vs. Travis Nembhard vs. Adrian Pokharel vs. Atif Qarni vs. David Reid vs. Suhas Subramanyam
Result (>95% in): Subramanyam 30.4%, Helmer 26.7%, Qarni 10.6%, Filler-Corn 9.3%, Boysko 9.1%, Reid 3.2%, Maldonado 3.2%, Pokharel 2.3%, Kaul 2.2%, Nembhard 1.6%, Devoe 0.9%, Leighton 0.5% | Subramanyam wins
This is a very crowded field of candidates, but as per usual, a few have risen to the top while the rest have fallen behind. The three candidates with the best chance tonight are Del. Dan Helmer, a Washington Post-endorsed centrist military veteran whose prior run for this seat is responsible for the memorably awful “You’ve Lost That Centrist Feeling” ad; former state House Speaker Eileen Filler-Corn, a lobbyist who was deposed as the leader of the Democratic caucus a few months after Democrats lost their majority in 2021; and state Sen. Suhas Subramanyam, the endorsed candidate of outgoing Rep. Jennifer Wexton and the only one of the top three who is a basically normal Democrat. This has become a very expensive race, and all of the top three have benefited from significant PAC expenditures; Filler-Corn and (at the last minute) Helmer have been the targets of negative PAC spending, while Subramanyam has escaped negative attacks because anything negative that could be said about him could also be said about most of his Democratic legislative colleagues, including Helmer, Filler-Corn, and three of the other candidates in this race (state Sen. Jennifer Boysko and Dels. Michelle Maldonado and David Reid.)
The biggest beneficiary of outside spending by far has been Helmer, who has seen millions in ad support and mailers from the cryptocurrency PAC Protect Progress and the centrist veterans’ PACs VoteVets and With Honor Fund II; he’s only seen negative PAC spending in the closing days, with a $5K digital ad buy highlighting an allegation that Helmer groped a woman. (A number of prominent Loudoun County Democratic activists have vouched for the unnamed accuser and confirmed that they knew of this allegation before Helmer launched his congressional campaign.) Filler-Corn has seen a more balanced mix of positive and negative spending, with Democratic Majority for Israel and a new PAC called Virginians United for Progress spending a mid-six-figures total sum to promote her on the air and on the web while a PAC funded primarily by liberal Virginia megadonor Sonjia Smith has hammered Filler-Corn with negative digital ads and mailers, with a modest assist from the Working Families Party in the form of more negative digital ads. Subramanyam has benefited from a high-six-figures campaign of ads and mailers, especially mailers, from the Indian American Impact Fund, which seeks to elect South Asian Americans to public office. Boysko has benefited from a last-minute mid-five-figure push from Repro Rising Virginia, but that’s likely not enough to break into the top tier of this race, much less win it.
As we referenced above and in our last regular issue, the race has been rocked in its final days by an allegation of groping against Helmer; allegedly, at a 2018 event, Helmer groped a woman, and the incident led to the Loudoun County Democratic Committee instituting its first-ever sexual misconduct policy. Helmer is calling it a hit job, but his opponents and some local officials are deeply concerned, with some calling for him to drop out. (He has refused.)
VA-11 (Fairfax County)
Gerry Connolly (i) vs. Ahsan Nasar
Result (>95% in): Connolly 85.8%, Nasar 14.2% | Connolly wins
Former federal prosecutor Ahsan Nasar may get a lot of protest votes for his stance and focus on Gaza (he has been calling for an immediate ceasefire), owing to this district’s substantial Muslim population, but Rep. Gerry Connolly is not in much danger of actually losing. One, because Nasar’s campaign doesn’t have much money; two, because Connolly doesn’t seem to be sleeping on this race. Connolly’s susceptibility to Gaza-based protest votes may also be blunted by the fact that he signed on to a letter along with 87 other House Democrats calling on the White House to suspend military aid to Israel. Nasar also gives off some conservative vibes with his background focus on crime in Fairfax County, which has a drastically lower violent crime rate than the nation as a whole.
Georgia
As we often do with runoffs, we give you the context of what we originally said in Round 1, then add anything major that’s changed. (Little has changed in the Georgia runoffs we’re tracking.)
SD-34 (South Atlanta metro, Clayton County)
Valencia Stovall vs. Kenya Wicks
Round 1: Stovall 44.2% - Wicks 15.2%
Result (>95% in): Wicks 65.8%, Stovall 34.2% | Wicks wins
This race is likely headed to a runoff between Valencia Stovall, a former state representative who left the Democratic Party in 2020, and Kenya Wicks, an Army veteran and local Democratic activist backed by retiring state Sen. Valencia Seay. Army veteran Herman “Drew” Andrews is the only other candidate who even managed to raise and spend over $1,000. Both Stovall and Wicks stick to generalities on policy for the most part, but Wicks is more detailed, clearly opposing Republican efforts to restrict abortion and remove sex ed from schools.
Stovall is a clear favorite in the runoff owing to how close to 50% she finished (and how far behind Kenya Wicks was.)
SD-38 (Long strip from South Fulton to Sandy Springs)
Rashaun Kemp vs. Ralph Long III
Round 1: Kemp 24.3% - Long 22.9%
Result (>95% in): Kemp 59.7%, Long 40.3% | Kemp wins
This race seems to have a frontrunner in Rashaun Kemp—who is a professional charter school advocate, which is an automatic “no” from us. Kemp leads the field in fundraising and has a number of valuable endorsements; there will likely be a runoff, and Kemp will very likely be in it. CPA Richard Wright, Atlanta City Council staffer Darryl “DJ” Terry II, and serial political staffer Nate Green probably won’t make the runoff, but that leaves two more potential runoff candidates. Former state Rep. Ralph Long III has the backing of some of his former colleagues and the Georgia Federation of Public Service Employees, while attorney Nkoyo Effiong Lewis is the only woman in the race. Both stress standard Democratic priorities, but Long gets extra credit from us for clearly spelling out his opposition to school vouchers.
In the runoff, Georgia’s Democratic establishment seems truly split between Long and Kemp, who now both oppose vouchers—but Kemp only opposes “unfair voucher bills” for “families who can already afford a private education for their children,” while Long simply wants to “defend public education from vouchers and other privatization efforts.” The simpler answer is the better one.
SD-55 (Eastern Atlanta metro)
Randal Mangham vs. Iris Hamilton
Round 1: Mangham 31.2% - Hamilton 22.6%
Result (>95% in): Mangham 54.2%, Hamilton 45.8% | Mangham wins
Former Obama campaign staffer Robin Biro has the inside track for retiring state Senate Minority Leader Gloria Butler’s seat, but he’s probably headed to a runoff with one of his two top opponents. Former state Rep. Randal Mangham, who is running to “fight for property value protections,” is backed by some former colleagues, while self-funding healthcare executive and former nurse Iris Hamilton is supported by progressive state Sen. Nabilah Islam; that’s more than enough for us to hope Hamilton and not Mangham advances to a runoff with Biro. Verdaillia Turner hasn’t filed any campaign finance reports or touted any big endorsements, as far as we can tell—which is surprising, because she’s the president of the Georgia Federation of Teachers.
Well, Robin Biro missed the runoff somehow, so now we have to root for Hamilton to defeat Mangham. Luckily, Hamilton was quickly endorsed by Gloria Butler as her successor once runoff results came in.
HD-96 (Northeast Atlanta suburbs)
Arlene Beckles vs. Sonia López
Round 1: Beckles 39.2% - López 30.5%
Result (>95% in): Beckles 65.2%, López 34.8% | Beckles wins
Pedro Martinez is retiring after more than two decades in the house, leaving one of the most diverse districts in the state up for grabs. Norcross City Councilmember Arlene Beckles is a small favorite, and she hasn’t given us much information to go off of, but we have a general suspicion of suburban local politicians, especially ones who talk about their time on something called the “Norcross Police Appreciation Committee”. Neva Thompson is running a low budget campaign, leaning in on her opposition to school vouchers, which is fine by us, and Sonia López is a former Norcross City Council candidate who does not seem to have gone to the effort of putting together an actual campaign the second time.
Maybe Sonia López can surprise us again after unexpectedly making a runoff with Arlene Beckles. Who knows.
DeKalb County CEO
Lorraine Cochran-Johnson vs. Larry Johnson
Round 1: Cochran-Johnson 46.3%, Johnson 34.3%
Result (>95% in): Cochran-Johnson 60.0%, Johnson 40.0% | Cochran-Johnson wins
Three DeKalb County Commissioners are fighting for the top job in county government, which is annoyingly named CEO as if DeKalb County is a business. Lorraine Cochran-Johnson has a few advantages: she’s the only woman in the race, she represents half of the county (her opponents each represent 20% of it), and she’s the least averse to making specific policy commitments. Steve Bradshaw and Larry Johnson are engaged in a platitude-off that doesn’t give us much to work with, though Johnson is at least supportive of rail transit expansion. (Cochran-Johnson also specifically highlights mass transit as a priority.) According to Atlanta DSA, Cochran-Johnson also has the best working relationship with metro Atlanta’s left-wing activists, even if her platform is pretty standard liberal fare.
According to a recent poll, Cochran-Johnson has maintained a healthy lead over Johnson in the runoff; the candidates have disagreed most sharply on whether to raise water rates to pay for infrastructure upgrades in light of DeKalb’s aging water infrastructure and Atlanta’s water crisis. (Cochran-Johnson says yes, Johnson wants to explore other options first without saying what those are.)
Oklahoma
SD-11 (Tulsa)
Regina Goodwin vs. Joe Williams
Result (>95% in): Goodwin 83.7%, Williams 16.3% | Goodwin wins
According to the nonprofit Oklahoma news outlet NonDoc, former Tulsa City Councilman Joe Williams “does not have a campaign website or social media page, but said he has been sending potential voters a two-minute video outlining his priorities.” However, he has been paying for yard signs, business cards, and canvassers; his is just a low-tech campaign. State Rep. Regina Goodwin has outraised him more than 5 to 1 and outspent him more than 3 to 1, but she also does not appear to have a website. Goodwin, a five-term state representative and the descendant of survivors of the 1921 Tulsa race massacre, does have the endorsements of the Tulsa World and the Black Wall Street Times. Both laud her experience in the state capitol and her long record of advocating for the descendants of the survivors of the 1921 white supremacist terror attack, which leveled the neighborhood of Greenwood, at the time known as “Black Wall Street,” and left dozens of Black Tulsans dead. She has fought for reparations when she’s not busy proposing legislation to protect the rights of renters and voting against the latest horrid far-right policy passed by the state’s GOP supermajorities, and she seems like she’ll make a fine member of an otherwise horrendous legislative body.
HD-72 (Tulsa)
Adam Martin vs. Michelle McCane
Result (>95% in): McCane 72.6%, Martin 27.4% | McCane wins
Adam Martin, a local businessman who ran for Congress last cycle, doesn’t send up any red flags and has every indication of being a reliable Democrat. However, school librarian and teachers union rep Michelle McCane has a more inspiring message and record of activism, including testifying against Oklahoma’s cruel, draconian anti-LGBTQ forced outing policy, pushed by far-right state Superintendent Ryan Walters.
HD-73 (Tulsa)
Darrell Knox vs. Ron Stewart
Result (>95% in): Stewart 52.8%, Knox 47.2% | Stewart wins
Tulsa’s other open house seat is also a contest between two qualified candidates, and a contest where one of them has just acquitted themselves better in small but clear ways. Firefighter Ron Stewart, who is endorsed by the AFL-CIO, talks about issues, such as overincareration and the Medicaid gap, in specific terms, while cafe owner Darrell Knox’s issue’s page is so vague and noncommittal that we’d be willing to believe that either a high school freshman or Chat-GPT wrote it.
HD-88 (Downtown Oklahoma City)
Nicole Maldonado vs. Ellen Pogemiller vs. Paula Sophia
Result (>95% in): Pogemiller 53.6%, Maldonado 30.8%, Sophia 15.7% | Pogemiller wins
Mauree Turner, Oklahoma’s first ever nonbinary legislator, was elected in 2020, defeating an incumbent and setting up a real political future for themselves. Unfortunately, they had to retire this year, owing to health concerns, which opened up their district. Nicole Maldonado, an aide to Rep. Turner, wants to carry on Turner’s work of forcefully opposing the GOP supermajorities’ attacks on LGBTQ Oklahomans and defending the state’s beleaguered public schools from far-right state Superintendent Ryan Walters; so do local PTA mom and former food bank worker Ellen Pogemiller and former OKC police officer Paula Sophia. Sophia, who is trans, would be the first trans or nonbinary state legislator to succeed a trans or nonbinary incumbent. She has previously run for the state House, barely losing in a 2014 runoff to fellow Democrat Jason Dunnington, who held the seat until Turner defeated him in 2020. If no candidate wins a majority, the top two will advance to an August runoff.
HD-99 (Oklahoma City suburbs)
Ajay Pittman (i) vs. Brittane Grant
Brittane’ Grant may be about to set a precedent, but not in the way she hoped. The Chamber of Commerce executive and business consultant is the subject of a genuinely novel legal battle in Oklahoma: does a felony conviction which has been expunged from a potential candidate’s legal record prevent that felony from running for office? In 2016, Brittane was convicted of a felony for false representation when applying for food stamps, which she then had expunged at some point. The State Election Board allowed Grant to make the ballot, and incumbent Ajay Pittman sued. Evidently, the question of whether Grant should have been allowed to run will be settled after the votes are actually counted.
It’s an ironic twist that Pittman is pursuing this line of attack considering that she was also convicted of a crime in 2016, but her legal transgression—shoplifting $28 of makeup—only rose to the level of a misdemeanor citation, not a felony, meaning it can’t keep her off the ballot. Pittman has always been in trouble electorally—she barely won in 2018 and 2020 and now this year she’s running under the cloud of an ethics investigation that just wrapped up with her paying $35,000 to settle up the charge of using close to $18,000 of her campaign funds for personal use.
Grant, if she’s allowed to run, is a real, serious candidate, but if she doesn’t even come without the benefit of not being ethically challenged, we can’t imagine how a Chamber of Commerce candidate could be an improvement on Pittman, herself a moderate.